Wenin’s Teams Analysis – Round 17

The analysis is back!

But before we get started, let me tell you a story of how not to SuperCoach.

My trades were all locked in before lockout, and I was feeling good. Finally, I would own Turbo, and despite him facing a bye this round, the Bulldogs match-up was too good to pass up on. So Gutho to Turbo was decided on. It made perfect sense, particularly given that Gutho was up against the Panthers. Also, Turbo was shaping up to be a solid captain pick.

So what went wrong?

Don’t go somewhere without phone reception before being able to make your trades before lockout and visit many wineries on the same day…

After a lovely night camping with the wife, enjoying a few vinos, a warm fire and the local wildlife, rugby league was the last thing on my mind. However, after heading back into civilisation and reality the next morning, I went to make my Saturday trades, including the Gutho to Turbo trade that was the key priority of the week. Reality slaps me directly in the face when I realise that Parramatta has already played, and therefore Gutho is now locked out. My planned trade to Turbo was binned, and to make matters worse; I had put the captaincy tag on Gutho with the thought that he would become Turbo.

Amazingly, even with this season-ending stuff up, I managed to score 1283 thanks to owning the likes of Garrick and Saab.

I now sit ranked outside of the top 5,000, and it’s fair to say that this season could have been a very different story for me had I not made the Cody Walker Alex Johnston trade blunder only just a few weeks ago (where I again missed lockout) and the shitshow of events for me last Friday night.

However, that’s SuperCoach, and you’ve got to roll with the punches.

With that tale of SuperCoach horror out of the way, let’s jump into the round 17 teams.

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SEA EAGLES v RAIDERS

Thursday, 7.50 pm, Brookvale Oval, Sydney

Sea Eagles: 1. Reuben Garrick 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Moses Suli 6. Kieran Foran 7. Dylan Walker 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Marty Taupau 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Sean Keppie

Bench: 14. Cade Cust 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Kurt De Luis 17. Toafofoa Sipley

Reserves: 18. Jack Gosiewski 19. Tevita Funa 20. Jorge Taufua 21. Tolutau Koula

Injuries:

  • Jake Trbojevic (hip, round 18)
  • Josh Schuster (calf, round 18)
  • Zac Saddler (cheek fracture, round 21-22)
  • Josh Aloiai (wrist, round 22)
  • Curtis Sironen (hamstring/knee, indefinite)
  • Manase Fainu (stood down)
  • Andrew Davey (knee, season)
  • Morgan Boyle (shoulder, season)

Ins

  • Cade Cust
  • Jack Gosiewski
  • Jorge Taufua
  • Tevita Funa
  • Tolutau Koula

Outs

  • Daly Cherry-Evans
  • Tom Trbojevic

Teams Analysis

Turbo and DCE will miss due to Origin duties.

The loss of Turbo sees Reuben Garrick shift to fullback and Moses Suli to the wing, while Dylan Walker replaces DCE in the halves.

Garrick smashed last weeks banner with a 169 point performance and is now priced at a ridiculous $846k with a BE of -14. It’s a crazy price to pay for him. However, the Sea Eagles have a good run home, with their only tough two games coming against the Storm and Eels in rounds 21 and 22. Thankfully I jumped on last weekend, so I don’t have to decide now following a $100k + price jump.

Jason Saab is currently the most traded in player. With a negative BE of -52 and the soft draw ahead, I can kind of understand why. But with trades at an absolute premium and a possible sub 20 score this round.

Marty Taupau is not of interest to me, while Lachlan Croker is a possible option, given how challenging the hooking position is at the moment.

Raiders: 1. Xavier Savage 2. Semi Valemei 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Matt Frawley 7. Sam Williams 8. Emre Guler 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Dunamis Lui 11. Corey Harawira-Naera 12. Hudson Young 13. Ryan Sutton

Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Ryan James 16. Sia Soliola 17. Joe Tapine

Reserves: 18. Matt Timoko 19. Trey Mooney 20. Brad Schneider 21. Harry Rushton

Injuries:

  • Elliott Whitehead (face cut/shoulder round 18)
  • Corey Horsburgh (wrist, round 19-20)
  • Bailey Simonsson (toe, round 21-23)
  • Curtis Scott (stood down)
  • Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (neck, season)

Ins

  • Brad Schneider
  • Harry Rushton
  • Hudson Young
  • Matt Frawley
  • Ryan James
  • Trey Mooney
  • Xavier Savage

Outs

  • Bailey Simonsson
  • Elliott Whitehead
  • Jack Wighton
  • Josh Papalii

Teams Analysis

The big news here is the injury to Bailey Simonsson, who will miss the next 4-6 weeks. At $416k, he has thankfully earned enough cash now to be a relatively easy trade out to decent round 17 CTW cover. He has been replaced at fullback by Xavier Savage, priced at $173k, but could be an AE nightmare over the next month.

Corey Harawira-Naera is the only player of interest for me and should be acquired this week if you’re not yet an owner, particularly given the injury news to Tohu Harris.

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RABBITOHS v COWBOYS

Friday, 7.55 pm, Stadium Australia, Sydney

Rabbitohs: 1. Blake Taaffe 2. Alex Johnston 3. Braidon Burns 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Mark Nicholls 9. Benji Marshall 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Hame Sele

Bench: 14. Liam Knight 15. Jacob Host 16. Patrick Mago 17. Peter Mamouzelos

Reserves: 18. Josh Mansour 19. Jaxson Paulo 20. Tautau Moga 21. Davvy Moale

injuries:

  • Tevita Tatola (knee, round 23-25)
  • Brock Gardner (Achilles, indefinite)

Ins

  • Blake Taaffe
  • Davvy Moale
  • Jaxson Paulo
  • Jaydn Su’A
  • Josh Mansour
  • Patrick Mago
  • Peter Mamouzelos
  • Tautau Moga

Outs

  • Cameron Murray
  • Damien Cook
  • Dane Gagai
  • Jai Arrow
  • Latrell Mitchell

Teams Analysis

Plenty of changes with several Rabbitohs players off on Origin duty. However, none really of SuperCoach relevance.

Cody Walker is not one of their stars to miss and is a must for this round if you don’t yet own him. Souths play the Bulldogs next round.

Campbell Graham has two tons in a row, and if he can find his 2020 form, he could be a cracking acquisition this round. He has an average BPPG of close to 36, and that is absolutely elite for a CTW. However, for a similar price, I would probably prefer Jesse Ramien, while Daniel Tupou is available for almost $100k less.

Cowboys: 1. Daejarn Asi 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Javid Bowen 4. Connelly Lemuelu 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Scott Drinkwater 7. Tom Dearden 8. Coen Hess 9. Reece Robson 10. Jordan McLean 11. Shane Wright 12. Mitch Dunn 13. Jason Taumalolo

Bench: 14. Jake Granville 15. Tom Gilbert 16. Lachlan Burr 17. Heilum Luki

Reserves: 18. Peter Hola 19. Michael Bell 20. Ben Condon 21. Kane Bradley

Injuries:

  • Reuben Cotter (foot, round 19-20)
  • Ben Hampton (pectoral, round 19-21)

Ins

  • Ben Condon
  • Connelly Lemuelu
  • Kane Bradley
  • Michael Bell
  • Peter Hola
  • Tom Gilbert

Outs

  • Francis Molo
  • Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
  • Valentine Holmes

Teams Analysis

Minimal changes of SuperCoach interest here.

Jason Taumalolo is ridiculously cheap, but for a good reason, given that last weekend was just the second time this year that he has scored 60 or more points. I’m not sold and feel you’re better off holding the trade as he is not an every week starting 17 player this year. However, if you’re set in other positions and already own the likes of Ramien, Tupou and AFB, then a trade of Harris to Taumalolo is not a bad play.

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BULLDOGS v ROOSTERS

Saturday, 7.35 pm, Bankwest Stadium, Parramatta

Bulldogs: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Corey Allan 3. Will Hopoate 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Tuipulotu Katoa 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Jake Averillo 8. Jack Hetherington 9. Sione Katoa 10. Luke Thompson 11. Corey Waddell 12. Joe Stimson 13. Josh Jackson

Bench: 14. Bailey Biondi-Odo 15. Dylan Napa 16. Ofahiki Ogden 17. Renouf Atoni

Reserves: 19. Lachlan Lewis 20. Jackson Topine 21. Falakiko Manu 22. Chris Patolo

Injuries:

  • Matt Doorey (concussion, round 18)
  • Ava Seumanufagai (suspension, round 18)
  • Jayden Okunbor (knee, round 18)
  • Jeremy Marshall-King (suspension, round 19)
  • Raymond Faitala-Mariner (foot, round 19-21)
  • Chris Smith (ankle, round 21)
  • Adam Elliott (cheekbone, round 21)
  • Nick Cotric (toe, season)
  • Brad Deitz (hamstring, indefinite)
  • Christian Crichton (knee, season)

Ins

  • Aaron Schoupp
  • Corey Waddell
  • Dylan Napa
  • Ofahiki Ogden
  • Renouf Atoni
  • Sione Katoa

Outs

  • Ava Seumanufagai
  • Jeremy Marshall-King
  • Matt Doorey

Teams Analysis

Mass changes for the Bulldogs with four the COVID-19 five straight back into the side after their suspension lapsed.

I have zero interest in any Bulldogs players despite the round 17 coverage.

Roosters: 1. Joseph Manu 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Billy Smith 5. Matt Ikuvalu 6. Drew Hutchinson 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Sam Verrills 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Isaac Liu 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley

Bench: 14. Lachlan Lam 15. Egan Butcher 16. Nat Butcher 17. Ben Thomas

Reserves: 18. Adam Keighran 19. Tuku Hau Tapuha 20. Naufahu Whyte 21. Joseph Suaalii

Injuries:

  • Luke Keary (knee, season)
  • Lindsay Collins (knee, season)

Ins:

  • Adam Keighran
  • Ben Thomas
  • Billy Smith
  • Nat Butcher
  • Naufahu Whyte
  • Tuku Hau Tapuha
  • Victor Radley

Outs:

  • Angus Crichton
  • Daniel Suluka-Fifita
  • Fletcher Baker
  • James Tedesco

Teams Analysis

Finally, a team with some sort of SuperCoach relevance for this weekend’s bye round.

With James Tedesco missing, Joseph Manu shifts to fullback and is a definite option for the round. Still, he is so inconsistent when playing in the centres, with a season average of 46 in 11 games played in that position, so it’s hard to justify the trade.

Joseph Suaalii has been surprisingly relegated to the reserves, with Matt Ikuvalu promoted to the starting side on the wing.

Victor Radley returns and could be value at $336k, but even excluding the game where he played just nine minutes and the brain fade game in round 11, he has a season average of just 49 PPG.

Daniel Tupou is of exceptional value this round. It will cost you just $60k to upgrade Simonsson to him, and that is a no brainer. He has produced two poor scores in a row, but these have been against the Storm and Penrith. Before that, he scored 62, 65, 64 and 101. With nearly all of the Roosters troops back from round 18, he may be one of the key benefactors with nice match-ups ahead.

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SHARKS v WARRIORS

Sunday, 4.05 pm, Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Will Chambers 4. Jesse Ramien 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Connor Tracey 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Aaron Woods 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Toby Rudolf

Bench: 14. Braydon Trindall 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Jack Williams 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

Reserves: 18. Billy Magoulias 19. Mawene Hiroti 20. Andrew Fifita 21. Luke Metcalf

Injuries:

  • Matt Moylan (calf, round 18)
  • Jackson Ferris (foot, round 18)
  • Royce Hunt (knee, round 18)
  • Josh Dugan (isolation, round 18)
  • Franklin Pele (foot, round 25)
  • Wade Graham (knee/head knock, indefinite)

Ins

  • Andrew Fifita
  • Luke Metcalf
  • Will Chambers

Outs

Nil

Teams Analysis

Connor Tracey remains in the halves as a replacement for Matt Moylan, who will miss again. If there some sort of guarantee that Moylan would be out for a while, then Tracey wouldn’t be the worst option until Nathan Cleary returns.

I traded in Will Kennedy last week and was happy with the outcome, particularly given that James Tedesco (who I traded him in for) scored just 45 against the Storm. Kennedy is still very affordable for those who are willing to take the punt. He is certainly not the worst bye coverage option with a season average of 64, including a four-point score against the Panthers. I will be looking to move him onto one of Pappy/Ponga/Turbo shortly after the bye.

Jesse Ramien produced 62 points against the Broncos, with 38 of these coming in pure base. He is a CTW keeper for the rest of the year, and if you need some depth in that position, he is a great option this week. Following the Simonsson news, I will be altering my trade plans and bringing Ramien in.

Shaun Johnson is the other obvious option for those who haven’t already jumped on. You’ll just want some bench cover in the halves position, given his injury history.

Warriors: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Marcelo Montoya 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Matt Lodge 11. Eliesa Katoa 12. Bayley Sironen 13. Jazz Tevaga

Bench: 14. Kane Evans 15. Leeson Ah Mau 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Ben Murdoch-Masila

Reserves: 18. Adam Pompey 20. Jack Murchie 21. Taniela Otukolo 22. Edward Kosi

Injuries:

  • Euan Aitken (isolation, round 18)
  • Josh Curran (isolation, round 18)
  • Tom Ale (ankle, round 18)
  • Chanel Harris-Tavita (pectoral, round 20)
  • Tohu Harris (shoulder, round 22)
  • Chad Townsend (shoulder, round 22-24)
  • David Fusitu’a (hamstring, indefinite)
  • Peta Hiku (shoulder, season)

Ins

  • Jack Murchie
  • Kodi Nikorima
  • Matthew Lodge
  • Reece Walsh
  • Taniela Otukolo

Outs

  • Chad Townsend
  • Tohu Harris

Teams Analysis

The most relevant SuperCoach news for this week’s TLT is arguably left for last here, with Tohu Harris set to miss up to a month with a shoulder injury. As a result, I will likely be holding with trades at an absolute premium right now but can certainly understand those who are looking to move him on.

The other big team changes include the return of Kodi Nikorima, who looked set to miss this round through injury but has been named to return and the addition of Reece Walsh at fullback.

Nikorima is definitely an option for those still holding onto the likes of Nathan Cleary or even Matt Burton. However, the Warriors next two games are against the Panthers and Souths, before a fantastic end to the season with match-ups against the Bulldogs, Tigers, Broncos, Raiders and Titans. Owning him through this period could be a season-defining move.

Walsh is a harder one for me as he’s not at the Turbo/Pappy/Ponga level, and so you will likely need to burn another trade to get one of them into your side during the run home. However, given the Warriors fantastic draw to finish the season, you could also just roll with Walsh and hope he can punch out a few tons along the way.

Matt Lodge will make his Warriors debut and is an option for your FRF position. However, I would prefer his new teammate, Addin Fonua Blake, at a cheaper price and with more upside.

Finally, Eliesa Katoa is available for just $388k and has produced scores of 71 and 95 over the past two weeks. With Tohu Harris out for the next month, he may continue to play big minutes but Josh Curran should be back in the squad next round.

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WeninRome

Wenin is one of the founding fathers of the NRLSCTalk website who's Tuesday Teams Analysis has been a feature post on the site for close to a decade. He also loves a good steak bet!

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Pool Man
Pool Man (@paulo)
14 days ago

Another great read Wenin, thanks for all the effort you put in.

Massive attack
Massive attack (@massive-attack)
14 days ago

Thanks Wenin
Awesome as always
Goodluck

benjis marshalls
benjis marshalls (@benjis-marshalls)
14 days ago

Thx Wenin. You are like the Paul Vaughan of Supercoach. Giving the big fantasy contributions to your own detriment so the rest of us can prosper! 

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