Wenin’s Teams Analysis – Round 1

TLT IS BACK!

It almost feels like yesterday that I was writing the Round 20 Teams Analysis, but here we are again.

Like any Round 1 TLT, there is plenty of analysis and discussion to come out of these teams, so let’s get into it.

STORM V RABBITOHS

Thursday 11 March, AAMI Park, Melbourne, 8.05pm (AEDT)

STORM

1 Ryan Papenhuyzen, 2 George Jennings, 3 Reimis Smith, 4 Justin Olam, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Jahrome Hughes, 8 Jesse Bromwich, 9 Brandon Smith, 10 Christian Welch, 11 Felise Kaufusi,12 Kenneath Bromwich, 13 Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Bench: 14. Chris Lewis 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Nicho Hynes

Injuries:

  • Brenko Lee (hamstring, round 2)
  • Harry Grant (knee, round 4)
  • Dale Finucane (calf, round 5)
  • Max King (Achilles, round 10)

Teams Analysis

Brandon Smith starts at hooker for the injured Harry Grant. Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been named at Lock to cover for Dale Finucane, with Christian Welch named in the front row. Brenko Lee is out injured (hamstring) and has been replaced by Reimis Smith in the centres, while George Jennings replaces Suiliasi Vunivalu on the wing.

There’s been a lot made of Christian Welch in recent days given the injury to Dale Finucane. Welch should benefit from the unfortunate injury to Finucane and see his minutes increase in the opening rounds. However, his prospects of moving into the gun range were there before this, with Welch averaging 60 PPG over his final ten games of the season coinciding with his minutes increasing to 52 per game. If he can continue with this form, then he is approximately $70k under-priced, but is he a season-long keeper? 

Reimis Smith gets the nod at centre but comes with in with an awkward starting price of $325k. His best season was in 2018 where averaged 52 PPG across 11 matches for the Bulldogs. However, this included a score of 125 points against the Dragons in Round 24 with three tries.

Ryan Papenhuyzen should take on the goal kicking duties with Cameron Smith departing and this could see him get close to James Tedesco territory and is therefore possibly undervalued to start the season, even at $629k.

RABBITOHS

1 Latrell Mitchell, 2 Alex Johnston, 3 Dane Gagai, 4 Campbell Graham, 5 Josh Mansour, 6 Cody Walker, 7 Adam Reynolds, 8 Tom Burgess, 9 Damien Cook, 10 Tevita Tatola, 11 Jacob Host, 12 Jaydn S’ua, 13 Cameron Murray

Bench: 14. Benji Marshall 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Keaon Koloamantangi 17. Jai Arrow

Injuries:

  • Liam Knight (concussion, round 2)
  • Hame Sele (ribs, round 3-4)
  • Blake Taaffe (ankle, round 8)
  • Taane Milne (knee, rounds 7-9)
  • Braidon Burns (knee, 7-9)
  • Jed Cartwright (back, round 6-10)
  • Brock Gardner (Achilles, indefinite)

Teams Analysis

Josh Mansour will make his debut for Souths in the starting side, as will Jacob Host, while Jai Arrow and Benji Marshall will start on the bench for their new clubs. The rest of the side is almost the status quo from 2020.

Mansour had a fantastic season in 2020 and there are no obvious reasons why he can’t back that up at Souths in what looks to be one of the better attacking teams on paper. Host is priced at $317k and could start the season with some value but Jai Arrow should play reasonably large minutes off the bench and Liam Knight is expected back next week. In the four games last year where Host played more than 50 minutes on the edge he averaged 57 PPG but this included two tries.

With cheap options available at Hooker, it will be interesting to see how many people now spend up big on Damien Cook. Over the past three years, he has averaged 78, 76 and 70 PPG and importantly, he has also hardly missed a game, proving to be one of the most durable players in the competition, playing 22, 23 and 20 games during these seasons. The decline in his average over these three seasons is not ideal, but he’s still almost guaranteed to be one of the top two to three Hookers by the end of the season and by picking him now then that’s one less trade that you’re going to have to make later on in the season.

KNIGHTS V BULLDOGS

Friday 12 March, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle, 6pm (AEDT)

KNIGHTS

1 Tex Hoy, 2 Starford To’a, 3 Enari Tuala, 4 Bradman Best, 5 Gehamat Shibasaki, 6 Kurt Mann, 7 Mitchell Pearce, 8 David Klemmer, 9 Jayden Brailey, 10 Daniel Saifiti, 11 Tyson Frizell, 12 Mitch Barnett, 13 Connor Watson

Bench: 14. Sauaso Sue 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Josh King 17. Brodie Jones

Injuries:

  • Hymel Hunt (hamstring, round 2)
  • Edrick Lee (foot, round 4)
  • Kalyn Ponga (shoulder, rounds 4-5)
  • Blake Green (knee, rounds 5-8)
  • Lachlan Fitzgibbon (shoulder, indefinite)
  • Jirah Momoisea (Achilles, indefinite)

Teams Analysis

Kalyn Ponga has been replaced at fullback by Tex Hoy, while Starford To’a and Gehamat Shibasaki replace Edrick Lee and Hymel Hunt, who are also both out with injuries. Connor Watson gets the nod at lock, Tyson Frizell will make his Newcastle debut on the edge and Jayden Brailey is back from a serious knee injury.

Watson should be in everyone’s side at either Hooker or 5/8 given that he starts the season priced at just a 33 PPG average. In 2020, when playing a utility role off the bench, he averaged 54.7 PPG in 44.7 MPG.

Brailey returns from injury and also starts at a discounted $357k but there are likely to be better options for your Hooker position, including Watson, Lachlan Lam, Liddle and Josh Hodgson.

BULLDOGS

1 Corey Allan, 2 Nick Meaney, 3 Will Hopoate, 4 Nick Cotric, 5 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 6 Jake Averillo, 7 Kyle Flanagan, 8 Ofahiki Ogden, 9 Sione Katoa, 10 Jack Hetherington, 11 Adam Elliott, 12 Corey Waddell, 13 Josh Jackson

Bench: 14. Bradley Deitz 15. Renouf Atoni 16. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 17. Dylan Napa

Injuries:

  • Jeremy Marshall-King (foot, round 3)
  • Luke Thompson (suspended, round 5)
  • Jayden Okunbor (knee, mid-late season)
  • Christian Crichton (knee, season)

Teams Analysis

There are plenty of new faces for the Bulldogs with Nick Cotric, Corey Allan, Jack Hetherington, Corey Waddell and Kyle Flanagan all set to make their debuts for the club. Jake Averillo appears set to play despite an elbow injury, while Dylan Napa also has been named (knee). Bradley Deitz has been named on the bench in Marshall-King’s absence and he is not currently listed in SuperCoach game as he has is a late addition from outside the club’s top 30 man squad. Josh Jackson gets the start at lock.

Averillo looks set to become a superstar of the NRL, starts the season priced at just $331k and is a dual positioned 5/8 / CTW. It’s a small sample size but in the two games last year where he played 80 minutes at 5/8 he scored 71 and 56 points. However, the 56 score included 16 points from goals.

Hetherington should be a reasonable cash cow to start the season despite being priced just below $300k. He will get solid minutes until Luke Thompson returns in Round 5 and should easily surpass his current BE of 33 over this time.

Embed from Getty Images

BRONCOS V EELS

Friday 12 March, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 8.05pm (AEDT)

BRONCOS

1 Jamayne Isaako, 2 Xavier Coates, 3 Herbie Farnworth, 4 Tesi Niu, 5 David Mead, 6 Anthony Milford, 7 Brodie Croft, 8 Tevita Pangai Jnr, 9 Jake Turpin, 10 Matthew Lodge, 11 Alex Glenn, 12. Jordan Riki, 13 Pat Carrigan

Bench: 14. John Asiata, 15. Tom Flegler, 16. Ethan Bullemor, 17. Ben Te’o

Injuries:

  • Jesse Arthars (ankle, round 1)
  • Dale Copley (throat, round 1)
  • Payne Haas (suspended, round 4)
  • Kotoni Staggs (knee, mid-season)

Teams Analysis

Brodie Croft has beaten Tom Dearden to the #7 jersey. David Mead gets a start on the left wing, while Tesi Niu switches to right centre as a replacement for Kotoni Staggs’s (ACL). Jordan Riki has been named to start on the edge, while John Asiata will start from the bench with Patrick Carrigan selected in the #13 jersey.

Riki should be just about the most selected player in SuperCoach now given the selection in the starting side. Asiata for me is now a pass, while Matt Lodge is underpriced given that he starts priced at a season average of 34 and has been a 50+ average player in the past.

Niu and Mead are both interesting cheaper options for your CTW, but for mine the pick of the two is Niu given what we’ve seen Mead produce at the Titans a few years ago. On face value, Niu has a higher ceiling and arguably better job security.

Jamayne Isaako is once again priced very attractively but just how many points will there be in this Broncos side? He’s priced at a 39 average and I don’t really see too much value in that starting price compared to others in the CTW.

EELS

1 Clint Gutherson, 2 Maika Sivo, 3 Tom Opacic, 4 Waqa Blake, 5 Blake Ferguson, 6 Dylan Brown, 7 Mitchell Moses, 8 Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 9 Reed Mahoney, 10 Junior Paulo, 11 Shaun Lane, 12 Ryan Matterson, 13 Nathan Brown

Bench: 14. Oregon Kaufusi, 15. Isiah Papali’i, 16. Keegan Hipgrave, 17. Will Smith

Injuries:

  • Marata Niukore (suspended, round 2)
  • Bryce Cartwright (broken jaw, early rounds)
  • Michael Oldfield (knee, round 4)
  • Michael Jennings (suspended, indefinite)

Teams Analysis

Former Cowboy Tom Opacic gets a start in the centres, while former Titan Keegan Hipgrave also makes his Eels debut from the bench alongside ex-Warrior Isaiah Papali’i.

Clint Gutherson could go absolutely bonkers against the Broncos on Friday night but it’s a brave call to select him ahead of Tedesco and Papenhuyzen at Fullback.

Ryan Matterson has averaged 67 and 75 PPG across the past two seasons since cementing himself as a 70+ minute edge forward in the NRL and if you exclude the one game in 2020 where he played just 15 minutes, his season average was actually closer to 80 PPG. In the only trial match of the year, he switched to the left and we are yet to see what the impact is of this, if any, on his SuperCoach output; however, he looks like being a pretty sure bet to finish right at the top in this position once again.

Nathan Brown and Junior Paulo both are strong options for your starting Round 1.

WARRIORS V TITANS

Saturday 13 March, Central Coast Stadium, Central Coast, 3pm (AEDT)

WARRIORS

1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 2. David Fusitu’a, 3. Euan Aitken, 4. Peta Hiku, 5. Ken Maumalo, 6. Kodi Nikorima, 7. Chanel Harris-Tavita, 8. Addin Fonua-Blake, 9. Wade Egan, 10. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown, 11. Eliesa Katoa, 12. Bailey Sironen, 13. Tohu Harris

Bench: 14. Jazz Tevaga, 15. Ben Murdoch-Masila, 16. Leeson Ah Mau, 17. Bunty Afoa, 18. Adam Pompey 20. Sean O’Sullivan, 21. Tom Ale 22, Josh Curran

Injuries:

  • Wayde Egan (elbow, round 1)
  • Chanel Harris-Tavita (quadriceps, round 1)
  • David Fusitu’a (minor knock, round 1)
  • Eliesa Katoa (eye-socket, round 1)
  • Jackson Frei (knee, round 2)
  • Karl Lawton (Achilles, late season)

Teams Analysis

Wayde Egan will play and gets the start at hooker ahead of Jazz Tevaga. Former Dragon Euan Aitken will start in the centres with David Fusitu’a and Ken Maumalo returning after long absences last year. Addin Fonua-Blake has been named at prop, while Bayley Sironen has beaten Ben Murdoch-Masila to the starting edge spot, and Tohu Harris has been named at lock. Josh Curran has missed the 17.  

David Fusitu’a starts the season priced at $252k, or a 28 BE and is a bit undervalued, however, he may also be a slow-burning cow given his historical base in the low 20’s.

Addin Fonua-Blake looks set to be one of the alpha dogs in this pack. Over the past two seasons, he has been a PPM monster and there’s no reason to suggest that this level of output won’t continue. In the 12 games last year where played over 50 minutes, he averaged 66 minutes and given that he is priced at a 60 PPG average, there is value to be had here.

Bayley Sironen is worth a look. In the final 10 games of the regular season, Sironen was able to cement himself in the starting back row for South’s and averaged 45, but at a very poor output rate of 0.69. That being said, he starts the season priced at a 39 PPG average and has beaten Murdoch-Masila to the starting edge spot. This also means that Murdoch-Masila can no longer be considered.

Tohu Harris is another to absolutely consider at Lock. In the three games where he started there last year, he averaged 81 PPG at 1 PPM.

TITANS

1 AJ Brimson, 2 Anthony Don, 3 Brian Kelly, 4 Patrick Herbert, 5 Corey Thompson, 6 Ash Taylor, 7 Jamal Fogarty, 8 Jarrod Wallace, 9 Mitch Rein, 10 Mo Fotuaika, 11 Kevin Proctor, 12 David Fifita, 13 Tino Fa’asuamaleui

Bench: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Sam Lisone, 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Erin-Wayne Clark

Injuries:

Sam McIntyre (foot, round 1)

Teams Analysis

David Fifita and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui have both been named to start in the backrow, and Patrick Herbert also maing his club debut.

I won’t be surprised to see Fa’asuamaleaui’s ownership creep up over the 50% mark before lockout given that it’s now been confirmed that he will start at Lock for his new club. Over the last ten games of his 2020 season, Tino averaged 70 PPG at 1.3 PPM and while he did score six tries over this period, from what we saw in the recent trial match, it’s an element to Tino’s game that we should expect, much like his new teammate, David Fifita. He’s on massive coin, so the minutes should be there and given he starts the season priced at 57 PPG, there’s a lot to like this year.

I am very keen, if cash permitting, to take a punt on Kelly this year. He’s priced at close to a 56 PPG average but when playing over 70 minutes in the centres last year for the Titans (13 games), he averaged 65 PPG. Hopefully he has locked down that centre spot now and I believe that there’s a good chance that he’s a top 5 CTW come seasons end.

Jamal Fogarty is another player worth mentioning given that he should take on the goal kicking duties, which may suggest he is underpriced by close to 8-12 points, or about a $100k discount.

Embed from Getty Images

ROOSTERS V SEA EAGLES

Saturday 13 March, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney, 5.30pm (AEDT)

ROOSTERS

1 James Tedesco, 2 Daniel Tupou, 3 Josh Morris, 4 Joey Manu, 5 Brett Morris, 6 Lachlan Lam, 7 Luke Keary, 8 Lindsay Collins, 9 Jake Friend, 10 Siosiua Taukeiaho, 11 Angus Crichton, 12 Sitili Tupouniua, 13 Isaac Liu

Bench: 14. Adam Keighran, 15. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, 16. Nat Butcher 17. Daniel Suluka-Fifita

Injuries:

  • Victor Radley (knee, early rounds)
  • Sam Verrills (knee, early rounds)
  • Billy Smith (shoulder, mid-season)
  • Boyd Cordner (concussion, indefinite)

Teams Analysis

Lachlan Lam has won the vacated 5/8 spot ahead of Sam Walker, but Adam Keighran has been named on the bench. Angus Crichton starts on the edge, while Lindsay Collins gets a start at prop with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves dropping to the bench.

Lam almost just has to be selected at either 5/8 or Hooker, even at the elevated priced. It’s a small sample, but in the two games in 2020 where he played over 50 minutes he scored 59 and 45. His base in both of these games was 37, so it appears as if he will get through plenty of work.

Crichton almost picks himself now that Boyd Cordner and Mitch Aubusson are missing from this Roosters line up. In ten games last year where he played over 60 minutes, he averaged 83 PPG.

Siosiua Taukeiaho’s output was good enough to see him ranked as the 7th most expensive FRF in 2020 and now it’s set to get a boost as he is taking on the goal kicking following the departure of Kyle Flanagan. This should, at worst, add close to 6-8 additional points to his game and therefore possibly see him as a 70-average player.

Consider Luke Keary as a POD option for your halves. Yes there will be the sub 20 scores, but he also has the ability to raise the bat and if you’re willing to stick with him throughout the whole season, then it’s the average of these two scores that you’re likely to get. It would be an added bonus if he was to take on the goal kicking when TKO leaves the field.

James Tedesco, no detailed commentary required. Just pick him and sleep easier.

SEA EAGLES

1 Dylan Walker, 2 Jason Saab, 3 Brad Parker, 4 Moses Suli, 5 Reuben Garrick, 6 Kieran Foran, 7 Daly Cherry-Evans, 8 Josh Aloiai, 9 Lachlan Croker, 10 Martin Taupau, 11 Jack Gosiewski, 12 Curtis Sironen, 13 Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Tevita Funa, 15. Andrew Davey, 16.Morgan Boyle, 17. Taniela Paseka

Injuries:

  • Cade Cust (thumb, round 1)
  • Tom Trbojevic (hamstring, round 4)
  • Jorge Taufua (Achilles, indefinite)
  • Manase Fainu (stood down, indefinite)

Teams Analysis

Dylan Walker has been named at fullback for the injured Tom Trbojevic (hamstring) with Morgan Harper named in the reserves. Jack Gosiewski has beaten Andrew Davey to the #11 jersey. Josh Aloiai replaces Addin Fonua-Blake in the front row and centre, Tevita Funa has been named on the bench, which should allow the forwards to play bigger minutes.

The naming of Walker at fullback is interesting, albeit that it may only last a month. He is priced at $307k and is a dual positioned 5/8 / CTW. Even without the positional change, you’re getting him at a discount this year given that his final two games of the season were for just 1 and 0 in just 14 minutes of football. Excluding these two games, he has a season average (5 matches) of 48 and starts the year with a BE of 35. The fact that he is playing fullback should see him with a possible boost in attacking stats.

Gosiewski is another player also to consider given that he will start on the edge and is priced at just $317k. In Rounds 17-19 of the 2020 season, he started on the edge for an average of 66, however, this also included four tries. In 2019, he started four games on the edge for an average of 54 PPG and also these scores included tries. There’s a real lack of cheapies in the 2RF position this year and we may need to pay a bit more for someone such as Gosiewski.

Saab is another one who stands out given his price tag of just $233k and the fact that he has been named as the Sea Eagles starting winger.

PANTHERS V COWBOYS

Saturday 13 March, Panthers Stadium, Penrith, 7.35pm (AEDT)

PANTHERS

1 Dylan Edwards, 2 Charlie Staines, 3 Paul Momirovski, 4 Stephen Crichton, 5 Brian To’o, 6 Jarome Luai, 7 Nathan Cleary, 8 Moses Leota, 9 Api Koroisau, 10 James Fisher-Harris, 11 Viliame Kikau, 12 Kurt Capewell, 13 Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Tyrone May 15. Spencer Leniu, 16. Matt Eisenhuth, 17 Liam Martin

Injuries:

Scott Sorensen (hamstring, round 1)

Teams Analysis

Moses Leota replaces James Tamou at prop with Spencer Leniu named on the bench. Kurt Capewell starts on the edge with Matthew Eisenhuth and Liam Martin to come off the bench. Charlie Staines and Paul Momirovski are the other new names from the Panthers finals squad.

We really needed Leniu to win that starting prop spot at the Panthers, but alas it has not happened. As result, he’s nowhere near as enticing a proposition but should still see an increase in his output this year. Starting with a BE of 25, there is cash to be made but it will be a very slow burn.

Capewell has jumped back into calculations given that he is starting in the backrow and available at CTW. Priced at $423k, he looks like possibly being the most plausible 2RF/CTW to start the season with this year. From what I can see, the Panthers bench is made up of three middle guys and one utility, so I can see Capewell getting big minutes. In the three games last year where he played 80 minutes he scored 89, 62 and 91.

Charlie Staines is owned in over 50% of teams and that’s not going to change now given that he has been named to start on the wing.  

COWBOYS

1 Scott Drinkwater, 2 Kyle Feldt, 3 Esan Marsters, 4 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5 Valentine Holmes, 6 Michael Morgan, 7 Jake Clifford, 8 Francis Molo, 9 Reece Robson, 10 Jordan McLean, 11 Mitchell Dunn, 12 Coen Hess,, 13 Jason Taumalolo

Bench: 14. Jake Granville 15. Josh McGuire 16. Corey Jensen 17. Reuben Cotter

Injuries:

  • Josh McGuire (hamstring, round 1)
  • Jordan McLean (hamstring, round 1)
  • Kane Bradley (shoulder, round 4)
  • Tom Gilbert (broken fibula, early rounds)

Teams Analysis

Scott Drinkwater beats Valentine Holmes to the fullback spot, while Jason Taumalolo has been named to start at lock with Coen Hess and Mitchell Dunn named on the edges. Francis Molo has beaten Josh McGuire to the starting prop role alongside Jordan McLean. There are two hookers named on the bench, so the forward rotation will be interesting.

You can rule Holmes out of your calculations now given that he is starting on the wing.

Taumalolo is a risk at the price given the talk of reduced minutes.

Embed from Getty Images

RAIDERS V TIGERS

Sunday 14 March, GIO Stadium, Canberra, 4.05pm (AEDT)

RAIDERS

1 Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 2 Bailey Simonsson, 3 Sebastian Kris, 4 Curtis Scott, 5 Jordan Rapana, 6 Jack Wighton, 7 George Williams, 8 Josh Papalii, 9 Josh Hodgson, 10 Dunamis Lui, 11 Hudson Young, 12 Elliott Whitehead, 13 Joseph Tapine

Bench: 14. Saliva Havili 15. Ryan Sutton, 16. Sia Soliola, 17. Ryan James, 18. Sam Williams, 19. Tom Starling, 20. Emre Guler 21. Harley Smith-Shields

Injuries:

  • Jarrod Croker (shoulder, rounds 2-4

Teams Analysis

Sebastian Kris has been named to start at centre with Jarrod Croker out injured. Josh Hodgson is back at starting hooker, Ryan James has been named to make his Raiders debut, while Saliva Havili has beaten Tom Starling to the bench utility role.

Kris starts the season priced at $218k but could be a one or two week wonder with Croker not far away.

I am keen on Hodgson, and he is a chance to play 80 minutes with Tom Starling not currently named. A knee injury saw Hodgson play just nine games last year and he also suffered an ACL injury in 2018 that saw him play just 11 games in that season. So, there is a question on durability, and he is also not getting any younger, coming into the 2021 season as a 32-year-old. However, he’s performed well during the pre-season and is priced at just a 42 average, so there should be value in his starting price given that he has averaged 54 or better in all but the 2020 season.

Injury ruined Ryan James’ 2019 with the form Titans prop playing just six games for an average of 38 and did not play a single game in 2020. He has made the offseason switch to the Raiders and starts very attractively priced at just $237k particularly given that he has produced season averages of 63 and 60 PPG in 2018 and 2017. The big question is how he fits into the rotation and how quickly it will take him to get back into the swing of playing at this level after being absent for such a large period. Priced at a 27 PPG average, he needs to be considered.

Tapine has broken my heart a couple of times now, but I’m a sucker for punishment. His form to finish the season can’t be ignored with an average of 67 PPG across the final ten games at an average PPM of 1.4. Has he arrived? I guess that’s the big questions. He’s a risky pick but if you nail this one then it will go a long way to setting you up for a cracking season given that he is priced just a tick under $550k.

Simonsson seems to be a solid pick to start the season, priced at just $205k and locked into the starting wing spot at the Raiders.

TIGERS

1 Daine Laurie, 2 David Nofoaluma, 3 James Roberts, 4 Joey Leilua, 5 Asu Kepaoa, 6 Moses Mbye, 7 Luke Brooks, 8 James Tamou, 9 Jacob Liddle, 10 Joe Ofahengaue, 11 Luke Garner, 12 Luciano Leilua, 13 Alex Twal

Bench: 14. Tommy Talau 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Stefano Utoikamanu 17. Russell Packer

Injuries:

  • Moses Mbye (hamstring, round 1)
  • Adam Doueihi (suspended, round 2)
  • Zane Musgrove (suspended, round 3)
  • Billy Walters (knee, round 6-7)
  • Shawn Blore (wrist, round 6-8)

Teams Analysis

Daine Laurie starts at fullback, James Tamou at prop and James Roberts will also make his club debut from the centres. Jacob Liddle starts at hooker and could play big minutes with no immediate threat from the bench. Stefano Utoikamanu will start from the #16 jersey.

Laurie is another very popular pick and for good reasons with the $223k recruit starting at Fullback. In the only game where he played anywhere near meaningful playing time last year, he scored 71 points in 80 minutes with 45 of these coming from pure base. Damn! However, it will be interesting to see what happens when Adam Doueihi returns next week.

Roberts is another cheap CTW that should be selected in the hope that he can stay on the park.

Liddle’s stocks have no doubt soared having been named as starting Hooker and no Simpkins in the 17 or reserves. At $247k, he seems like a relatively safe cash cow for the upcoming season and the bench would suggest that he will go close to playing the full 80 minutes this weekend.

2020 was a disaster for Ofahengaue and, ultimately, he finds himself with a new home at the Wests Tigers in 2021. However, if we ignore this year and look back at what he has been able to achieve in previous seasons, he’s produced a PPM of 1.12, 1.02, 1.25, 0.96 and 1.00, which is solid for an FRF that should play more than 50 minutes at his new club. If his PPM returns to normal, he’s possibly a relatively safe mid-price option at FRF or 2RF, however, with three middle forwards named on the bench, his minutes are questionable.

Utoikamanu made his NRL debut in Round 9 of 2020 and played twice more for the Eels after that. But thanks to short stints of 1, 11 and 12 minutes in those games, he still comes in at near basement price. He showed an extremely impressive work rate in those games (1.79 PPM) and if he can step into some of the minutes vacated by Josh Aloiai or Matt Eisenhuth (and now Musgrove), he should be a half-decent slow-burning cow, but how many minutes will he get in this pack and Musgrove is back in three weeks.

DRAGONS V SHARKS

Sunday 14 March, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney, 6.15pm (AEDT)

DRAGONS

1 Matt Dufty, 2 Cody Ramsey, 3 Jack Bird, 4 Zac Lomax, 5 Mikaele Ravalawa, 6 Adam Clune, 7 Ben Hunt, 8 Blake Lawrie, 9 Andrew McCullough, 10 Paul Vaughan, 11 Josh Kerr, 12 Tariq Sims, 13 Tyrell Fuimaono

Bench: 14. Poasa Faamausili 15. Trent Merrin 16. Daniel Alvaro 17. Brayden Wiliame

Injuries:

  • Poasa Faamausili (concussion, round 1)
  • Jordan Pereira (concussion, round 1)
  • Jayden Sullivan (hamstring, round 4)
  • Cameron McInnes (knee, season)
  • Jack de Belin (stood down)

Teams Analysis

Jack Bird has been named in the centres, Andrew McCullough at hooker, while Poasa Faamausili and Daniel Alvaro have been named on the bench and all will make their club debut. Cody Ramsey has beaten Jordan Pereira to a starting wing spot but Pereira is out with concussion, while Tyrell Fuimaono will start in the #13 jersey.

Faamausili starts priced at $233k and similar to Leniu is a chance of being a slow burning cow given he has been named on the bench.

Fuimaono at $260k is worth consideration as he has been named to start at Lock but in eight games last year when playing over 50 minutes in the backrow he averaged just 44 PPG. The shift from the edge to Lock may increase his work-rate and at the price, he is certainly not the worst pick.

SHARKS

1 Will Kennedy, 2 Sione Katoa, 3 Josh Dugan, 4 Jesse Ramien, 5 Ronaldo Mulitalo, 6 Matt Moylan, 7 Chad Townsend, 8 Braden Hamlin-Uele, 9 Blayke Brailey, 10 Aaron Woods, 11 Briton Nikora, 12 Wade Graham, 13 Toby Rudolf

Bench: 14. Connor Tracey 15. Aiden Tolman 16. Jack Williams 17. Billy Magoulias

Injuries:

  • Royce Hunt (knee, round 2-3)
  • Siosifa Talakai (shoulder, round 2-3)
  • Shaun Johnson (Achilles, round 7-8)
  • Jack A Williams (throat, indefinite)
  • Bronson Xerri (stood down, indefinite)

Teams Analysis

Toby Rudolph has been named to start at lock, with Aiden Tolman set to make his club debut at prop. Billy Magoulias has been named in the bench, seeing Andrew Fifita miss out on the 17 man squad. Matt Moylan starts at five-eighth and Will Kennedy at fullback.

I love seeing Rudolph named at Lock, but how many times did we see that late switch last year with him dropping back to the bench?

Moylan almost picks himself in our Round 1 sides at the price, however, there is some risk that comes with the pick.

Magoulias finally gets a crack at it ahead of Fifita, but he joins a rather long list of FRF cheapies who have been selected on the bench and therefore not be the best cash generation option.

WeninRome

Wenin is one of the founding fathers of the NRLSCTalk website who's Tuesday Teams Analysis has been a feature post on the site for close to a decade. He also loves a good steak bet!

Subscribe
Notify of
17 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments