Wenin’s Teams Analysis – R21

In what will be forever known as the weekend where you either captained Teddy or not, round 20 has come and gone and we are now faced with the round 21 teams.

From a team news perspective, James Maloney has failed to beat his charge at the tribunal, but Sam Burgess has been successful and will, therefore, be available for the encounter with the Storm on Sunday afternoon. In other news, Jai Arrow will make his long-awaited return, while Viliame Kikau and Tevita Pangai Jnr will return from suspension. Matt Moylan is out with a concussion.

Acknowledgements:

If you haven’t already, make sure you check out JT’s Weekend Roundup and Wilfred’s Minutes. Both fantastic summaries of the weekend that was.

Today’s tune is dedicated to the team of people that captained Tom Trbojevic in round 20. I feel your pain.

COWBOYS V BRONCOS

Thursday Aug 8, 1300SMILES Stadium, 7.50pm

Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Coen Hess 4. Tom Opacic 5. Gideon Gela-Mosby 6. Michael Morgan 7. Jake Clifford 8. Josh McGuire 9. Jake Granville 10. Jordan McLean 11. Gavin Cooper 12. Shane Wright 13. Jason Taumalolo

Interchange: 14. John Asiata 15. Matt Scott 16. Scott Bolton 17. Francis Molo

Reserves: 18. Peter Hola 19. Reuben Cotter 20. Corey Jensen 21. Murray Taulagi

Ins:

  • Corey Jensen
  • Gideon Gela-Mosby
  • Peter Hola
  • Reuben Cotter

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

There is one change for the Cowboys with Murray Taulagi dropped for Gideon Gela-Mosby.

Match-up Preview:

It’s hard to know what to make of the Broncos now. They looked a million dollars against two of the poorer clubs (although the Bulldogs have been pretty good since) and then last Friday night happened. The Cowboys are not as bad as the Titans (or are they?) and arguably the Bulldogs but they haven’t really been that impressive at home, winning just three of nine games at 1300Smiles Stadium this year. With that being said, their opposition at home has been difficult, facing the likes of the Sharks, Raiders, Storm, Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs. Their wins have been against the Dragons, Titans and Eels.

Onto their opposition this Thursday night.

Up until last Friday night, the Broncos weak point had been their left edge defence but the likes of Kenny Bromwich (sigh), Cameron Munster and Josh Addo-Carr continuously attacked down the Broncos right-hand side of the field, and absolutely pulled the Broncos pants down. Unfortunately for the Titans Cowboys, there is nothing really of SuperCoach relevance for them on that side of the field. In fact, the only two real Cowboys players of interest right now are Jason Taumalolo and Michael Morgan (just because JT owns him and I need him to ton-up this weekend for the sake of our Wednesday podcast steak bet).

Players of interest:

Jason Taumalolo – The Broncos have conceded 55 PPG to locks this season with Dale Finucane scoring 53 points in 61 minutes last Friday night. However, with Taumalolo being just not your average lock forward, the statistics at hand may not mean too much but he hasn’t really been himself of late, scoring over 70 points just once in the last four games. This can partially be explained by his opposition with games against Souths, the Roosters and Sharks. Last weekend against the Tigers he played just 58 minutes compared to 75 and 72 the weeks prior. In the game against the Roosters (who have conceded close to 60 PPG to locks this year), he was unlucky not to score a try, a line break and then some (but we won’t go there). Paul Green simply must give him minutes if they want a win against their arch-rivals. Based on the recent history it is hard to suggest him as a VC/C option for this round.

Michael Morgan – The Broncos have conceded close to 40 PPG against halves this year (Brodie Croft managed just 37 points in a restricted 54 minutes last weekend in the ‘Slaughter at Lang Park’). Morgan is also out of form, with his past four scores being 58, 93, 42 and 14; however, he averages 20 points more at home this year than away, which is quite some stat and it suggests that he could be a relatively safe option for owners this Thursday night.


Broncos: 1. Anthony Milford 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Alex Glenn 5. Jamayne Isaako 6. Darius Boyd 7. Jake Turpin 8. Matthew Lodge 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Payne Haas 11. David Fifita 12. Tevita Pangai Jnr 13. Joe Ofahengaue

Interchange: 14. James Segeyaro 15. Thomas Flegler 16. Rhys Kennedy 17. Pat Carrigan

Reserves: 18. Gehamat Shibasaki 19. Herbie Farnworth 20. Xavier Coates 21. Shaun Fensom

Ins:

  • Gehamat Shibasaki
  • Herbie Farnworth
  • Shaun Fensom
  • Tevita Pangai Junior

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Tevita Pangai Jnr returns from a one-week suspension and he takes up his position on the right edge. Alex Glenn switches from back row to centre and Xavier Coates has been dropped. Joe Ofahengaue replaces Thomas Flegler in the starting side in the only other change. There is still no Matt Gillett and Tom Dearden suffered a setback in his return to the QRL last weekend.

The major talking point here is the return of TPJ and the fact that he has been named at his more SuperCoach friendly position on the edge. His massive scores over the past month or so have coincided with him playing from this position as cover for Matt Gillett.

Match-up Preview:

The Titans Cowboys have won just two in their last eight games with these wins including the Titans (so it doesn’t really count) and that great win on the Central Coast against the Roosters.

Their weakness has been their left side defence and the shift of Coen Hess to left centre over the past two weeks hasn’t really helped with Esan Marsters just last weekend crossing for two tries. In particular, they have conceded the most amount of points to right-sided 2RFs and the fourth most to left-sided centres.

Their other key weakness is points conceded to locks with an average points against of over 60 per game this season.

Players of interest:

Kotoni Staggs – The majority of us gave him a well-earned rest last weekend but it’s time to include him in your 17 once again with a date against Hess and co this Thursday night. He is in some sort of form right now and even the Storm could not deny him last round with a brilliant solo try that saw him score 50 points, seeing saw him ranked in the top four for all Broncos players on the night. The Cowboys have conceded 52 PPG to right centres this season.

Tevita Pangai – He’s back in this weekend after serving his suspension and lines up on the edge with recent scores of 106, 60, 73 and 16 from that position. It also helps to know that the Cowboys have conceded 65 PPG to right 2RFs this season. However, with the Cowboys giving up the most amount of points to locks this year, he could have been set for a big score nonetheless. He put 70 points on them in round 2 from the front-row (try included) and shapes as a definite option for your 17 this round.

Anthony Milford – This is arguably one of the more difficult calls of the weekend. Milford was horrific last Friday night with just 16 points that included an appalling six runs but the Broncos did have just 42% of possession. Since his permanent shift to FLB he has an away average of 64.5 in two games (Knights and Titans) compared to an average at home of just 47 PPG in three games but this includes the 16 points against the Storm last round and a HIA impacted round 17 against the Bulldogs. The Cowboys have conceded an attractive 56 PPG to FLBs this season, including a 19 (Thompson), 85 (Dugan), 33 (Johnston), 74 (Manu), 74 (Dufty for an average of 55 over the past five rounds. If he can connect with Staggs on the right-hand side like they did against the Cowboys Titans then watch out but then again a 20-40 point score would not surprise. It all depends on your squad.

Boys, we need you.

WARRIORS V SEA EAGLES

Fri Aug 9, Mt Smart Stadium, 6pm

Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. Gerard Beale 3. Peta Hiku 4. Blake Ayshford 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Blake Green 8. Agnatius Paasi 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Leeson Ah Mau 11. Adam Blair 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Lachlan Burr

Interchange: 14. Adam Keighran 15. Sam Lisone 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Ligi Sao

Reserves: 18. Josh Curran 20. Adam Pompey 21. Hayze Perham 22. Leivaha Pulu

Ins:

  • Adam Keighran
  • Adam Pompey
  • Hayze Perham
  • Leivaha Pulu
  • Ligi Sao
  • Sam Lisone

Outs:

  • Karl Lawton
  • Kodi Nikorima

Wenins’ Analysis

Kodi Nikorima played just 21 minutes last weekend and will now miss round 21 due to an ankle injury. He has been replaced in the starting side by Chanel Harris-Tavita. Karl Lawton is out with a shoulder injury and this sees Jazz Tevaga named at hooker with Adam Keighran added to the bench. Ligi Sao is the other new face on the bench while Josh Curran has dropped to the reserves.

Tevaga was perhaps a touch lucky to play the full 80 minutes last weekend given the injury of Nikorima but he looks likely to play big minutes again depending on how they use Keighran.

Match-up Preview:

How about the Sea Eagles? They have now won four of their past five and look set for possibly a top-four finish. Interestingly, they have won 10 of 13 encounters at this venue vs. the Warriors.

So where will we possibly see some decent SuperCoach output for the home side

In what is quite a remarkable statistic this season, Manly had conceded the most amount of points to left-wingers up until last weekend (but let’s ignore Kurt Mann’s 29 points last weekend) compared to the fewest amount of points to left centres, so what does this say about Reuben Garrick’s defence?

Players of Interest:

Ken Maumalo – As long as the conditions aren’t too horrific (expecting rain from Thursday), the stage could be set for a big Kenny Maumalo score, albeit he scored just 27 points against the Sea Eagles in round 3. Whilst his 2019 average at Mt Smart Stadium of 58 PPG is five points down on his overall season average, he’s extremely hard to leave out of you 17 with such a high floor for a CTW. He produced 45 points against the best defensive side to left-wingers (average of just over 34 PPG) last weekend without any attack thanks to a massive 19 runs over eight metres against the Raiders. Maumalo is a legitimate VC option this round with Manly conceding 52 PPG to left-wingers this season.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – I feel sorry for the portion of RTS’s 38k owners that missed out on the Tedesco show on Sunday. This match-up for RTS is no easier with the Sea Eagles conceding just 47 PPG to them this year. However, he did put 69 points on the Sea Eagles in round 3.

Jazz Tevaga – Manly have conceded close to 50 PPG to HOKs this season but Tevaga just continues to produce ridiculous output. His 80-minute game last weekend was arguably helped by an injury to Kodi Nikorima that may have seen the planned bench rotation adjusted. With Keighran on the pine, there is a risk that Tevaga could see circa 60-65 minutes playing time but even with that, you’re effectively banking a minimum of 60 points. WHY DID I SELL HIM!


Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Brad Parker 4. Moses Suli 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Dylan Walker 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic

Interchange: 14. Manase Fainu 15. Corey Waddell 16. Morgan Boyle 17. Taniela Paseka

Reserves: 18. Jack Gosiewski 19. Lachlan Croker 20. Brendan Elliott 21. Lloyd Perrett

Ins:

  • Brendan Elliot
  • Jack Gosiewski
  • Lachlan Croker
  • Lloyd Perrett

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes for the Sea Eagles this round after another win last weekend.

Both Trbojevic brothers were disappointing last weekend but you’ve got to back them in to produce the goods this weekend. The concern is what will happen to Jake Trbojevic should the Sea Eagles set themselves up with a comfortable lead, will he be benched in the 70th minute again?

Match-up Preview:

The Warriors had their pants pulled down at home last weekend and the scary thought is that the Sea Eagles are in just as good form as the Raiders and have won 10/13 matches against the Warriors at this ground.

Manly will be looking to continue on with not only the wins but with four players scoring over 70 points last weekend, they will also be looking to continue that SuperCoach form against a side that conceded over 60 points to a whopping nine players last round.

2RFs have dominated against the Warriors, with both edges averaging close to the 60 PPG mark against them. However, they had conceded limited points to lock’s at under 50 PPG up until Joseph Tapine produced 84 last Friday night, including a try and a line break.

Right-sided halves have scored on average 53 PPG against the Warriors, including Aiden Sezer’s 43 points last round.

Players of Interest:

Daly Cherry-Evans – DCE is in red-hot form at the moment with a 5RA of 77 and he looks to be Cherry-ripe for another big score this weekend against a side that’s conceded 54 PPG to players of his position.

Jake Trbojecic – Jake had another down weekend against the Knights, thanks in part to reduced minutes given that he was provided with an early shower as the Sea Eagles were trouncing the Knights. That score of 52 sees him with just a 5RA of 61 PPG, which is hardly the output required to consider him a certain inclusion in your 17. In the two matches over the past month that he has played in excess of 70 minutes, he has scored 73 and 90 respectively. However, the concern is that if the Sea Eagles are travelling comfortably and the conditions aren’t too flash then Jake could once again get an early rest, which would see him produce circa 50-55 points. It’s not what you want right now from one of your guns and it’s also not ideal that the Warriors have conceded so few points to locks this year. BUT! That offload to Turbo is going to come off sooner rather than later.

Tom Trbojevic – We all know too well what happened on Saturday afternoon at Lottoland. Turbo produced his first sub-50 in a non-injury affected game since round 18 last year, which was against the Storm. He backed that game up with a 115-point performance against the Roosters at home. Despite that under-par score last round, he still has a season average of 92 across 8 games and is A) a definite starter and B) a valid VC/C option this weekend. The Warriors have conceded 52 PPG to FLB’s this year.

Viliame Kikau is a welcomed addition this week for a struggling Panthers side.

PANTHERS V SHARKS

Fri Aug 9, Panthers Stadium, 7.55pm

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Josh Mansour 3. Dean Whare 4. Brent Naden 5. Brian To’o 6. James Maloney 7. Nathan Cleary 8. James Tamou 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange: 14. Sione Katoa 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Moses Leota 17. Reagan Campbell-Gillard

Reserves: 18. Frank Winterstein 19. Jed Cartwright 20. Stephen Crichton 21. Matt Burton

Ins:

  • Jed Cartwright
  • Matt Burton
  • Sione Katoa
  • Spencer Leniu
  • Stephen Crichton
  • Viliame Kikau

Outs:

  • Jarome Luai
  • Wayde Egan
  • James Maloney

Wenins’ Analysis

Viliame Kikau returns from a two-week suspension and this sees Frank Winterstein drop out of the side. Jarome Luai and Wayde Egan are both out injured with Sione Katoa and Spencer Leniu replacing them on the bench. James Maloney has lost his fight against suspension tonight and will now miss one match.

The big inclusion is Kikau and owners will now face a tough decision of whether or not to play him this weekend. Well, I guess that you’ve come to the right place.

Match-up Preview:

The Sharks have been a difficult opponent all year with no glaring weakness apart from right-side halves where they have conceded close to 55 PPG to this year.

They’ve also been very good defensively against wingers, conceding less than 40 PPG against them this season.

Players of interest:

Nathan Cleary – Cleary was very disappointing last Saturday night but so were most of the Panthers. Prior to this, he had produced scores of 73, 85 and 74. Two of those scores were against potential top-four finishes in the Raiders and Souths. With James Maloney out there will more responsibility on his shoulders and this should result in SuperCoach output. In the one game this year without Maloney, Cleary scored 63 and in two games without him last year he scored 74 and 68, reflecting an overall average of 68 points. Start him.

Viliame Kikau – Kikau has missed the past two games through suspension but has been named to take his place on the left edge against Briton Nikora and Josh Morris. This side has conceded 52 PPG to left edge 2RFs in 2019 and Kikau has a career average against the Sharks of 72 PPG, including a 32 point performance against them in round 6 this year, but we know how poorly he started the season. He’s the kind of player that you should be thinking of playing from here out in the search for points. I’m going to fit him into my 17 this round.

Brian To’o – To’o has largely done his job for owners over the past three weeks but now faces his stiffest opposition in a while with the Sharks conceding just 35 PPG to right-wingers this season (Dane Gagai produced just 37 points last round against them). It’s time to give To’o a spell.


Sharks: 1. Josh Dugan 2. Sosaia Feki 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Josh Morris 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Shaun Johnson 7. Chad Townsend 8. Aaron Woods 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Matt Prior 11. Briton Nikora 12. Wade Graham 13. Paul Gallen

Interchange: 14. Kurt Capewell 15. Jack Williams 16. Andrew Fifita 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

Reserves: 18. Billy Magoulias 19. Blayke Brailey 20. Sione Katoa 21. Kyle Flanagan

Ins:

  • Billy Magoulias
  • Blayke Brailey
  • Kyle Flanagan
  • Sione Katoa
  • Sosaia Feki

Outs:

  • Matt Moylan

Wenins’ Analysis

Matt Moylan is out through concussion and this sees Josh Dugan shift to fullback, while Josh Morris moves to the centres and Sosaia Feki starts on the wing.

Wade Graham was seriously impressive last weekend in his return from injury but had averaged just 53 PPG in the three games prior, albeit in two of these he played just 32 and 55 minutes. Whilst the upside is there, the fact is that he has averaged no more than 60 PPG over the past five seasons and he has battled injury since returning from his ACL this season. Not a risk that I am willing to take.

Andrew Fifita has once again been named on the bench.

Match-up Preview :

The Panthers have been relatively difficult to play this in 2019, conceding above average points to just two positions, being right edge 2RFs and 5/8s.

Of particular note, they have conceded under 40 points to both halfbacks and left centres.

Players of Interest:

Shaun Johnson – Johnson continued on with his brilliant run of form last weekend with an 86 point score that now sees his 5RA creep over the 73 PPG mark. Whilst his past two games have been at home for scores of 86 and 102, he has averaged 66 PPG away from home since returning from injury and this included two very tough match-ups against the Raiders and Storm. The Panthers have conceded 42 PPG this season and this includes his 82 against them in round 6.

Bronson Xerri – Xerri has been absolutely huge over the past two rounds despite what did not seem to be attractive match-ups, particularly last weekend against a side that had conceded just 40 PPG to left centres all year. He’s just a supreme talent, has the ability to make something out of absolutely nothing and with Wade Graham playing inside him he will be hard to leave out of you 17 each week. However, he does face a side that has conceded similar output to left centres all year to Souths and it should be noted that he averages just 48 PPG away from Shark Park (compared to 65 PPG at home) this year and this includes a 134 point performance against guess who, the Cowboys Titans in round 9.

Andrew Fifita – It wasn’t pretty for Fifita last weekend with 48 points in just 40 minutes. This follows on from a 13, 50, 58 and 91 in the four-games prior. Minutes are a big concern and there is no way that you can pick him on form and with another game ahead of him that he faces coming off the bench. The Panthers have conceded just over 50 PPG to FRFs this year, including Aiden Tolman’s 57 in round 20 that included a sin bin. He can earn my trust.

Briton Nikora – Nikora crossed for a try last weekend and he might do it again against a side that has conceded 60 PPG to right-edge 2RFs this year.

Jai Arrow could prove to be a serious POD option for the run home.

DRAGONS V TITANS

Sat Aug 10, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 3pm

Dragons: 1. Corey Norman 2. Jason Saab 3. Euan Aitken 4. Tim Lafai 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Gareth Widdop 7. Ben Hunt 8. James Graham 9. Cameron McInnes 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Patrick Kaufusi 12. Tariq Sims 13. Tyson Frizell

Interchange: 14. Jeremy Latimore 15. Korbin Sims 16. Jackson Ford 17. Luciano Leilua

Reserves: 18. Tristan Sailor 19. Josh Kerr 20. Blake Lawrie 21. Zac Lomax

Ins:

  • Jackson Ford
  • Josh Kerr
  • Tristan Sailor
  • Zac Lomax

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Jackson Ford has been named to make his debut, while Patrick Kaufusi has been promoted to the starting side with Blake Lawrie dropping out and James Graham moves from lock to prop.

The naming of Ford is potentially a dagger for those who had hopes of him being a cheapie option for next year as is the continual naming of Jason Saab on the wing.

Match-up Preview:

This is what I wrote last weekend and the same very much applies for the Dragons opponents this round.

“The Titans feature in the top three most amount of SuperCoach points conceded in each of the following positions: locks, FLB, 5/8, HFB, right-winger and left centre.”

There are plenty of points to be had and I highly doubt that the naming of a new coach is going to turn the tables just yet.

Oh, and the Roosters had seven players score over 80 last weekend including Tedesco and his 155 (close your eyes Turbo homers).

Players of Interest:

The only Dragons player at over 10% ownership is Josh Kerr, so this may be the least interesting game vs. the Titans for SuperCoach in some time. This is of course unless you take up Wilfred’s suggestion and jump on Gareth Widdop, which is what I did in round 3 last year, i.e. the game that he produced 173 against the Titans. This was the one and only highlight of my 2018 SuperCoach season.

Moral of the story though, if you own Dragons, play them, it might be the last chance that you can.


Titans: 1. Alexander Brimson 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kallum Watkins 4. Brian Kelly 5. Phillip Sami 6. Ashley Taylor 7. Ryley Jacks 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Nathan Peats 10. Jai Whitbread 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Sam Stone 13. Jai Arrow

Interchange: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Brenko Lee 17. Bryce Cartwright

Reserves: 18. Mitch Rein 19. Anthony Don 20. Treymain Spry 21. Leilani Latu

Ins:

  • Alexander Brimson
  • Jai Arrow
  • Jesse Arthars
  • Leilani Latu
  • Mitch Rein
  • Treymain Spry

Outs:

  • Jack Stockwell
  • Michael Gordon

Wenins’ Analysis

Jai Arrow finally returns for the Cowboys Titans, seeing Jai Whitebread shift to prop and Jack Stockwell drop out completely. AJ Brimson returns at fullback with Michael Gordon out injured, while Jesse Arthurs replaces Anthony Don on the wing.

The return of Arrow is a massive boost for those who have stuck fat over the past five rounds (Lakey!). Brimson could cause havoc at fullback against a side that has conceded the most points to that position over the course of the season.

Match-up Preview:

In their loss at home last weekend, the Dragons prevented too much damage from a SuperCoach perspective with just four Eels cracking the 60-point barrier.

They have conceded plenty of points to FLBs, right-edge 2RFs, left centres, right halves and right-wingers. However, they have also conceded the least amount of points to the right centres.

Players of Interest:

Jai Arrow – To the 11k of you that have held, now is your chance to possibly reap the benefits. The Cowboys Titans have sorely missed a player of Arrow’s talent over the past month or so and with Gareth Brennan gone, it will be interesting to see how many minutes he is provided this weekend. It may pay to play it safe this weekend and then if his minutes are anywhere over 60, then include him in your line-up from next weekend. With a current BE of 100, he is certainly a player to monitor for those with trades.

EELS V KNIGHTS

Sat Aug 10, Bankwest Stadium, 5.30pm

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Brad Takairangi 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Kane Evans 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Manu Ma’u 13. Nathan Brown

Interchange: 14. Marata Niukore 15. Daniel Alvaro 16. David Gower 17. Tepai Moeroa

Reserves: 18. Greg Leleisiuao 19. Peni Terepo 20. Jaeman Salmon 21. Stefano Utoikamanu

Ins:

  • Greg Leleisiuao
  • Jaeman Salmon
  • Peni Terepo
  • Stefano Utoikamanu

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes for the Eels despite their loss last weekend.

It’s BankWest time.

Match-up preview:

The Knights have held off making changes to the side that was thrashed by the Sea Eagles last weekend. Manly had six players score over 60 points but unfortunately, this did not include either of the Trbojevic brothers.

Newcastle feature in the red zone for points conceded to left 2RFs, centres and wingers, with their left-sided defence proving to be much harder to score against. HFBs had up until last weekend struggled against the Knights but DCE put that argument to the test with a 112 point performance.

Players of Interest:

Mitchell Moses – Moses was a bit of a bust last weekend, scoring just 46 points but this round he returns to his much more favoured BankWest where his last five scores have been 62, 86, 65, 110 and 36. He produced just 27 points against the Knights in round 7 but that’s when they were still a reasonable NRL side and Moses averages close to 50 PPG away, compared to his season average of 65.

Clint Gutherson – The King! Well, he was anything but last weekend as he was unable to capitalise on the Dragons record of being the easiest team to play against for FLBs. However, the King of BankWeth (sic) returns to his throne and he has produced scores of 81, 55, 59, 62 and 33 for a 5RA of 58. It’s nowhere near as compelling as Moses but you know a big score is coming and the Knights are horrible at the moment and they have conceded 53 PPG to FLBs this season.

Nathan Brown – The Knights have conceded the least amount of points to lock forwards this year, including Jurbo’s 52 last weekend. Brown has been very good since returning from injury but saw minor dip last weekend with absolutely no attacking statistics produced. At BankWest, he has scores of 87, 78 and 62 but despite every harsh comment that I’ve made against the Knights in this analysis, they have been a difficult match-up for locks this year with a season average against of just 48 PPG.

Maika Sivo – You know the drill, any game at BankWest equals Sivo’s inclusion in your 17. To make the situation more attractive for him this weekend, the Knights have conceded over 50 PPG to left-wingers including Jorge Taufua’s 60 last round.


Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Kurt Mann 3. Hymel Hunt 4. Tautau Moga 5. Shaun Kenny-Dowall 6. Mason Lino 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Connor Watson 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Tim Glasby

Interchange: 14. Jacob Saifiti 15. James Gavet 16. Sione Mata’utia 17. Aidan Guerra

Reserves: 18. Jamie Buhrer 19. Beau Fermor 20. Jirah Momoisea 21. Chris Randall

Ins:

  • Beau Fermor
  • Danny Levi
  • Jamie Buhrer
  • Jirah Momoisea

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes for the Knights but Dany Levi has been named in the reserves and could be a shock inclusion.

Kayln Ponga produced his first sub-60 score since round 3 on the weekend, let that sink in.

Connor Watson proved again that he is a must inclusion in your side when named at hooker, he scored 75 points in 80 minutes. If he continues to be an 80-minute hooker next year then he will be hard to leave out of your side.

Match-up Preview:

The Eels have conceded the most amount of points to FRF’s and left-side halves (both at 60+) this season.

On the other hand, they have conceded minimal few points to 2RF’s.

Players of interest:

Kalyn Ponga –Whilst my strongly worded argument about not benching Ponga last weekend was tested (to my defence Manly have conceded less than 50 PPG to FLBs this year), the same theory rolls around again this weekend, don’t bench Ponga. As mentioned above, this was the first time since round 3 that Ponga has produced a score of less than 60. Don’t bench Ponga.

David Klemmer – With the Eels conceding the most points to FRFs this year at over 60 PPG, is Klemmer a legitimate captain option in what is otherwise a challenging round?

Connor Watson – For the reasons mentioned above, but just watch for a late Levi inclusion.

Mitchell Pearce – He’s an option this weekend given the Eels record against players in his position but he scored just five points in 80 minutes last round and has a 5RA of 27 points, joooises.

BULLDOGS V TIGERS

Sat at Aug 10, ANZ Stadium, 7.35pm

Bulldogs: 1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2. Nick Meaney 3. Kerrod Holland 4. Will Hopoate 5. Reimis Smith 6. Jack Cogger 7. Lachlan Lewis 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Michael Lichaa 10. Dylan Napa 11. Josh Jackson 12. Corey Harawira-Naera 13. Chris Smith

Interchange: 14. Jeremy Marshall-King 15. Renouf Toomaga 16. Danny Fualalo 17. Raymond Faitala-Mariner

Reserves: 19. Kayne Kalache 20. Brandon Wakeham 21. Jayden Okunbor 22 Ofahiki Ogden

Ins:

  • Brandon Wakeham
  • Jayden Okunbor
  • Kayne Kalache
  • Ofahiki Ogden
  • Raymond Faitala-Mariner

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Adam Elliott is out with a finger injury and is replaced by Chris Smith, while Raymond Faitala-Mariner comes onto the bench.

The Bulldogs proved many of the doubters wrong last weekend with a tough fought win over the Panthers. However, just three players scored over 60 points which probably speaks to their SuperCoach relevance at the moment.

Match-up Preview:

Left centres have scored on average close to 60 PPG against the Tigers but Coen Hess produced just 44 points there last Thursday night (although he’s not really a centre). Elsewhere on the left side of the field, 2RFs have averaged 55 PPG against them including Gavin Coopers 52 points last round and left-wingers have averaged close to PPG against them (Tualagi Murray scored 24 points last weekend but he has been subsequently dropped).

Lastly, they’ve conceded just 50 PPG to FRFs, 46 PPG to FLBs and less than 45 PPG to left-sided halves this season.

Players of Interest:

Kerrod Holland – Plays at left centre, but nah.

Corey-Harawira Naera – He’s produced back-to-back scores of 67 in 80 minutes on the left edge and could be set for another similar score against a side that’s conceded 57 PPG to left edge 2RFs this season.


Tigers: 1. Corey Thompson 2. Paul Momirovski 3. Moses Mbye 4. Esan Marsters 5. David Nofoaluma 6. Benji Marshall 7. Luke Brooks 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Robbie Farah 10. Oliver Clark 11. Luke Garner 12. Michael Chee-Kam 13. Ryan Matterson

Interchange: 14. Matthew Eisenhuth 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Alex Twal 17. Chris Lawrence

Reserves: 18. Jacob Liddle 19. Tommy Talau 20. Elijah Taylor 21. Josh Reynolds

Ins:

  • Elijah Taylor
  • Jacob Liddle
  • Josh Reynolds
  • Tommy Talau

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes.

Ryan Matterson got through 60 minutes of work for the second week in a row and this seems all too predictable as long as he remains at lock. If only he could play the full 80-minutes in the middle.

Match-up Preview:

The Bulldogs have been one of the easiest teams to score against this season and despite the win last weekend there were still five Panthers that scored over 60 points against them, all of which were forwards except for Dylan Edwards.

Up until last weekend, the best scoring positions against the Bulldogs had been in the backs with FLB’s, 5/8’s and right-wingers all averaging around 60 PPG against them, while the left-hand side wingers and right-hand side centres are not too far behind them at close to 55 PPG.

Players of interest:

David Nofoaluma – It’s time to roll Nofo out for another game with the Bulldogs averaging 62 PPG against right-wingers this season. Nofo has been one of the form wingers in the competition of late with a 5RA of 64.

Esan Marsters – Marsters ownership percentage may have plummeted of late but he is still owned by 20k SuperCoaches. If you are one of the 14% then you may want to start him with the Bulldogs conceding 55 PPG to right centres.

Ryan Matterson – Depending on how many POD’s you are playing this weekend, Matterson could be rested. He’s going to produce close 60 points in pure base, which is nothing to sneeze at and the Bulldogs concede around 55 PPG to that position this year, which is right on his average at lock.

The steak bet lives on.

RAIDERS V ROOSTERS

Sun Aug 11, GIO Stadium, 2pm

Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Nick Cotric 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Sia Soliola 11. John Bateman 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joseph Tapine

Interchange: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Dunamis Lui 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Ryan Sutton

Reserves: 18. Sam Williams 19. Joseph Leilua 20. Emre Guler 21. Michael Oldfield

Ins:

  • Joseph Leilua
  • Nick Cotric
  • Ryan Sutton
  • Sam Williams

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Nick Cotric returns from suspension at the expense of Michael Oldfield, while BJ Leilua has been named in reserves and could be another addition to the backline. Ryan Sutton returns from injury with Emre Guler dropping to the bench.

How good are the Raiders this year? Their form is proving to be fruitful for SuperCoach with the likes of John Bateman and Charnze Nicholl-Klokstad having breakout seasons, while the great Joseph Tapine is ‘flying’.

Match-up preview:

The Raiders have had it relatively easy of late with games against the Warriors, Panthers, Tigers and St George but now is their big test up against the reigning premiers.

Consistent with prior seasons, the Roosters do concede points up the middle with FRFs and locks banking SuperCoach points against them. In fact, they have conceded 36% of their total tries down the middle this season. They have also conceded the most points to left-sided 2RFs.

For the Jordan Rapana owners out there, the Roosters have conceded just 30 PPG to right-wingers this season.

Players of interest:

Jordan Rapana – With no try last weekend, Rapana could manage just 27 points against the Warriors. This followed on from back-to-back scores over 60. He comes up against a side that has conceded the least amount of points to right-wingers, so he may find it quite tough this weekend but that could also change if BJ Leilua makes his return. In round 9, he scored just 13 points against the Roosters, but he went off injured in the 51st minute.

Joseph Tapine – The man cannot be stopped! But seriously, he produced 84 with a try and a line break, following on from back-to-back scores in the 30’s. This could be his last time to shine in 2019 with a match-up against a side that has conceded plenty of points to locks this season. To make this happen he will need to see similar minutes to what he was provided last round.


Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Joey Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Luke Keary 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Sam Verrills 10. Isaac Liu 11. Angus Crichton 12. Mitch Aubusson 13. Victor Radley

Interchange: 14. Nat Butcher 15. Zane Tetevano 16. Poasa Faamausili17. Sitili Tupouniua

Reserves: 18. Lindsay Collins 19. Drew Hutchison 20. Matt Ikuvalu 21. Lachlan Lam

Ins:

  • Drew Hutchison
  • Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
  • Lachlan Lam
  • Matt Ikuvalu

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Jared Waerea-Hargreaves returns from suspension, with Zane Tetevano shifting back to the bench and Lindsay Collins dropping to the reserves.

The Roosters may never have it as easy as they did last weekend against the Cowboys Titans, the Raiders are obviously a massive step up going off recent form.

Match-up preview

The Raiders have been very difficult to score against this year and this was proven once again last Friday night with just three players scoring over 60 points, one of which was a half that scored two tries.

However, the left side of the Raiders defence has conceded 50% of their tries (with 21% through the middle and 29% on the right side). This is reflective of the SuperCoach points against which sees right-sided wingers averaging over 10 points more per game over their left-sided teammates.

Players of interest:

Brett Morris – Morris had a massive game on the right-wing last weekend, scoring 109 points against the Titans. While the Raiders have conceded almost 15 PPG less than Gold Coast this season on their left edge, the Roosters will likely target this side of the field and Morris could well benefit.

Angus Crichton – Crichton starts again with Boyd Cordner out and he could set for another big score with the Roosters likely to attack via his edge.

Joseph Manu – Despite the number of tries conceded to right-sided players this year, the Raiders have conceded the least amount of points to right centres all year.

James Tedesco – We all know what Teddy did last weekend. However, the Raiders have conceded just 45 PPG to FLBs this season including RTS score of 38 last round. After two massive rounds, it could be time for Tedesco to fall back to planet Earth.

Sam Burgess gets off, yet Kikau was suspended for two games? Makes sense.

RABBITOHS V STORM

Sun Aug 11, Central Coast Stadium, 4.05pm

Rabbitohs: 1. Adam Doueihi 2. Dane Gagai 3. James Roberts 4. Braidon Burns 5. Campbell Graham 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Tevita Taola 9. Damien Cook 10. Tom Burgess 11. John Sutton 12. Sam Burgess 13. Cameron Murray

Interchange: 14. Liam Knight 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ethan Lowe 17. Kyle Turner

Reserves: 18. Dean Britt 20. Corey Allan 21. Jaydn Su’A 21. Connor Tracey

Ins:

  • Connor Tracey
  • Corey Allan
  • Dean Britt
  • Jaydn Su’A

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes at this stage for the Rabbitohs with Sam Burgess beating his dangerous contact charge tonight at the tribunal.

Match-up Preview:

The Stage is set for a cracking game and a massive test for the Rabbitoh’s who have been performing very well in SuperCoach of late. This includes the likes Damien Cook, Cameron Murray and Cody Walker.

I don’t need to really go into too much detail here, the Storm are the hardest team to play against in SuperCoach. However, their right side defence has conceded a whopping 66% of their tries against this season.

Players of interest:

Cameron Murray – Murray has a 5RA average of 73 and a 3RA of 88, it’s fair to say that he is in some form. However, included within this average is the 103 point score against the Cowboys that included approximately 50 points scored in the final five or so minutes. With that being said, he also had a blinder in a losing side last weekend with 98 points in 71 minutes, including a try and two line breaks. Over the past three weeks with his minutes returning to 60+, his base has been elite at 64, excluding any power statistics. Despite the match-up, it’s difficult to leave him out and you would think that big minutes are on the cards this Sunday. Jake Trbojevic produced 81 points in 90 minutes against the Storm, including 82 in pure base. If one thing is for sure, Murray is going to be getting through a lot of tackles on Sunday afternoon and hopefully, this is not at the expense of his time on field.

Damien Cook – The Storm have conceded just 48 PPG to HOKs this year but in round 21 last year, Cook produced 110 points in 80 minutes against them.

Braidon Burns – Burns had a down week in round 20 but comes up against a defence that has conceded 66% points of their total tries against down Burns’ edge. It would be a brave decision but with just over 10% ownership it could be a smart POD play as the majority of his owners will likely bench him.


Storm: 1. Jahrome Hughes 2. Suliasi Vunivalu 3. Will Chambers 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Brodie Croft 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Dale Finucane

Interchange: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Joe Stimson 17. Ryan Papenhuyzen

Reserves: 18. Solomone Kata 19. Max King 20. Tino Faasuamaleaui 21. Sandor Earl

Ins:

  • Max King
  • Sandor Earl
  • Solomone Kata
  • Tino Faasuamaleaui
  • Tui Kamikamica

Outs:

  • Christian Welch

Wenins’ Analysis

Christian Welch, unfortunately, injured his ACL last weekend and will now miss the rest of the season. He has been replaced on the bench by Tui Kamikamica.

It was party time for the Storm against the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium last Friday night with seven 60+ scores for the Storm, including two 100’s and three 90’s. They were so impressive to watch live.

This should be a tougher test for them.

Match-up Preview:

South’s have proven to be a difficult match-up this season but the Sharks proved too good for them with two players cracking 90 and a total 39 points conceded against on the field.

Prior to last weekend, they had featured in the top three for the fewest points conceded to the left edge (as a whole), FRFs, 5/8s, HOKs, left-wingers and left centres – so this may not be as easy for the Storm brigade as last Friday night.

Players of interest:

Kenny Bromwich – FMMFL. Trade Kenny Bromwich to Jurbo, they said. Jurbo will average 70+ from here out, they said. Facepalm. With that out of the way, South’s right edge has conceded more PPG than the Broncos but on a whole that South’s side has been relatively tough to score against, conceding on average just 43 PPG to left edge players and of all tries scored against this season, just 35% have been against the right-sided defence. I think that it’s a case of chasing of last week’s points if you are after him this round.

Cameron Munster – Left-sided halves have scored on average just 42 PPG against Souths this year. Interestingly, Munster averages just 50 PPG away from Melbourne this year, including the 94 point score against the Broncos. He deserves a rest.

Cameron Smith – Despite Souths conceding just 50 points to HOKs this year, you’d be brave and frankly insane to leave Smith out of your 17 this weekend. Unlike Munster, Smith has an average of 72 PPG away from AAMI Park in 2019. It would be the very definition of playing it “too cute” should you bench him this weekend.

Leave your comments below or join us on Twitter and Facebook.

WeninRome

Wenin is one of the founding fathers of the NRLSCTalk website who's Tuesday Teams Analysis has been a feature post on the site for close to a decade. He also loves a good steak bet!

    Please Login to comment
    10 Comment threads
    18 Thread replies
    1 Followers
     
    Most reacted comment
    Hottest comment thread
    11 Comment authors
    trentmarkThe Pool MancarlosthedwarfIANAGArico Recent comment authors
      Subscribe  
    Notify of
    Mort
    Member
    Gun
    Mort

    I just wanted to say a huge thankyou to you and all of the guys who make this site so great. Primarily, I am a rugby league fan who stumbled across fantasy sports. This site has made my love of league all the more enjoyable. Once again, no $50k prize for winning SC, but much richer for the experience and the years adventure. Good luck to those in the mix for the cash prizes.

    Surgebuster
    Member
    Gun

    The Titans/Cowboys joke actually got funnier with every use. Possibly because I pictured steam coming out of the ears of every reader north of Mackay every time…

    Stilesy
    Member
    Gun

    Immense write-up as usual mate. Long live Fortress Bankwetht!

    IANAGA
    Member
    IANAGA

    i have 5 trades left…250 ITB…ctw is bateman, mitchell, nikora, manu mau and too…should i waste 2 trades to bring in sivo for the run home? im h2h player

    BT
    Member
    Gun
    BT

    Thanks Wenin. Definitely not getting any easier with who to pick each week.

    Gutho or Xerri?
    Staggs or Jurbo?
    Munster of Jazz?

    Just some of the decisions i’m grappling with.

    IANAGA
    Member
    IANAGA

    gutho, jazz and jurbo – pretty easy decisions

    BT
    Member
    Gun
    BT

    Not sure it’s that simple.
    Hard to go past Xerri in current form and outside Wade.
    Gutho should be good, but he was meant to be good last week.
    Munster, who knows, but Wenin makes some good points.
    Jazz seems like a safe bank of points who should at least score what Jurbo does at a minimum, but Jurbo has more upside?
    Staggs has upside also

    IANAGA
    Member
    IANAGA

    its a hard round but those choices are easy….gutho is at bankwest…,wenin explained why munster is on the bench and i dont see bris doing well against nq

    CoG
    Member
    Gun
    CoG

    That first match of this rnd should be a cracker
    What an enticing match up
    Redcliffe under 18’s against the Titans
    shock wink

    rico
    Member
    Keeper
    rico

    Great write up as always Wenin!!

    carlosthedwarf
    Member
    Gun

    “but let’s ignore Kurt Mann’s 29 points last weekend”

    What was that about double or nothing?

    The Pool Man
    Member
    Gun
    The Pool Man

    A great read yet again Wenin, appreciate all your input.

    trentmark
    Member
    Sleeper
    trentmark

    Doubt Connor Watson will be an 80m hooker next year, when the Knights just splashed good cash out for Jayden Brailey