Wenin’s Teams Analysis – R20

Another weekend is done, there is drama at the tribunal and injuries afloat. This sees us with plenty of changes in the round 20 teams.

The usual acknowledgements:

Let’s get it on!

Michael Morgan returns after three weeks off with a concussion.

TIGERS V COWBOYS

Thursday 1st August, Leichhardt Oval, 7.50pm

Tigers: 1. Corey Thompson 2. Paul Momirovski 3. Moses Mbye 4. Esan Marsters 5. David Nofoaluma 6. Benji Marshall 7. Luke Brooks 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Robbie Farah 10. Oliver Clark 11. Luke Garner 12. Michael Chee-Kam 13. Ryan Matterson

Interchange: 14. Matthew Eisenhuth 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Alex Twal 17. Chris Lawrence

Reserves: 18. Jacob Liddle 19. Tommy Talau 20. Chris McQueen 21. Josh Reynolds

Ins:

  • Chris McQueen
  • Jacob Liddle
  • Josh Reynolds
  • Tommy Talau

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes for the Tigers, but Michael Chee-Kam must be in some doubt after his nasty head knock last weekend.

Ryan Matterson remains at lock, where he played 60 minutes there last weekend for 56 points. With a high floor, he is a relatively safe option for your 17 each week but could be risked if there are some more attractive options based on match-ups.

Esan Marsters is slowly becoming an AE issue with another poor score in round 19. However, he is potentially an option for your 17 this weekend against a suspect left-hand side Cowboy’s defence.

Match-up Preview

The Cowboys weakness has been their left side defence and they tried to appease this last weekend with the inclusion of Coen Hess into centres and Javid Bowen out. Whilst they held Briton Nikora to a mediocre score, he was unlucky not to cross over for at least one try and was hampered by an ankle injury from early in the first half. Despite Nikora’s 42 point score, the Cowboys have still conceded the most amount of points to right edge 2RFs this year.

The Cowboys have also conceded the most amount of points to lock forwards at over 60 PPG and Paul Gallen turned back the clock last round with 74 in 61 minutes from the lock position. Lastly, they’ve conceded the second most amount of points to HOK’s, which along with the points conceded to locks suggests that there is potential for points to be had for the Sharks up the middle.

Players of Interest:

  • Esan Marsters and David Nofoaluma are both options for your 17 this weekend up against Coen Hess and Kyle Feldt.
  • Ryan Matterson looks to have a better match-up than last weekend and showed that he is a low-risk option for your starting side when starting at lock but you may just need to cop the odd 55 point score.

Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Coen Hess 4. Tom Opacic 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Michael Morgan 7. Jake Clifford 8.Josh McGuire 9. Jake Granville 10. Jordan McLean 11. Gavin Cooper 12. Shane Wright 13. Jason Taumalolo

Interchange: 14. John Asiata 15. Matt Scott 16. Scott Bolton 17. Francis Molo

Reserves: 18. Corey Jensen 19. Tom Gilbert 20. Gideon Gela-Mosby 21. Reuben Cotter

Ins:

  • Gideon Gela-Mosby
  • Michael Morgan
  • Reuben Cotter
  • Tom Gilbert

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Michael Morgan returns after a three-week layoff following a sickening collision during the last Origin match. This sees John Asiata drop to the bench and Corey Jensen drop out of the 17.

Jason Taumalolo shapes as obvious VC option this round but he’s scored over 100 points just once this year. However, with such a high floor he is one try away from producing a massive score.

Match-up Preview

The Tigers right edge has conceded the third most amount of points this season, with left edge CTW’s scoring more points against them in 2019 than any other side at close 60 PPG.

Left edge 2RF’s have also performed well against them, averaging close to 60 PPG this season. Sione Matautia was unable to capitalise against them last weekend but he was effectively on one leg for most of the game. In fact, the last time that a left edge 2RF scored well against them was Manu Ma’u in round 17 with 75 points.

For the Taumalolo owners, the Tigers have conceded on average just over 54 PPG to locks this season.

Players of Interest:

Nil

Kodi Nikorima is a big in for the Warriors this weekend.

WARRIORS V RAIDERS

Friday 2nd August, Mt Smart Stadium, 6pm

Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. Gerard Beale 3. Peta Hiku 4. Blake Ayshford 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Blake Green 8. Agnatius Paasi 9. Issac Luke 10. Leeson Ah Mau 11. Adam Blair 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Jazz Tevaga

Interchange: 14. Lachlan Burr 15. Sam Lisone 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Chanel Harris-Tavita

Reserves: 18. Karl Lawton 20. Josh Curran 21. Adam Pompey 22. Adam Keighran

Ins:

  • Adam Pompey
  • Joshua Curran
  • Karl Lawton
  • Kodi Nikorima

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Kodi Nikorima is back at five-eighth, which sees Chanel Harris-Tavita shifts to the bench, while Adam Keighran drops to the reserves. David Fusitua remains out of the side with Gerard Beale once again named at right-wing.

In further changes to the named side, Issac Luke’s suspension has been upheld and he will miss the next three weeks so Karl Lawton should come into the starting side.

Ken Maumalo and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck were the stats last weekend, while Jazz Tavaga continues to bang out massive base statistics with his minutes hovering around the 60 MPG mark.

Match-up Preview

The Raiders are legitimately good, as they showed last weekend against an in-form Panthers in Penrith. They are also very hard to score against with respect to SuperCoach.

If there is one weakness then it is the left side defence with right-wingers averaging a little bit over 45 PPG against them this year, while the left side wingers average a measly 35 PPG against them. Also, locks have averaged over 57 PPG against them.

Everywhere else, it’s been tough going for SuperCoach.

Players of Interest:

  • I didn’t start Kenny Maumalo last weekend because of the fact that the Eels had conceded just 40 PPG to left side wingers to date this season and, Kodi Nikorima was out and he was one week back from a concussion injury. He proved me wrong, but then again the Eels played a rookie right-side winger against him. Regardless, with his base (37 in pure base in round 19) he doesn’t have the low floor that his fellow wingers have and with Kodi Nikorima back in the side, it may pay to ignore the stats as they stand and play him regardless for the rest of the season. For owners, you will hope that he defies the odds on Friday night given that the Warriors face the Raiders again in round 25.
  • Jazz Tevaga shapes as a starter once again, he just continues to smash out the base and until he stops doing so then just play him. At the moment it’s an easy 60+ points. This also correlates to the Raiders performance against locks so far this year.
  • Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is an interesting one, but surely the majority of the top tier guys are running with a Teddy/Turbo combination this weekend?

Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Michael Oldfield 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Sia Soliola 11. John Bateman 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joseph Tapine

Interchange: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Emre Guler 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Dunamis Lui

Reserves: 18. Sam Williams 19. Hudson Young 20. Sebastian Kris 21. Royce Hunt

Ins:

  • Hudson Young
  • Royce Hunt
  • Sam Williams
  • Sebastian Kris

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes.

John “Rugby League” Bateman. What an addition he has been this year, bravo.

Match-up Preview

The Warriors have conceded the third most amount of points to 2RF’s this year which should see the John Bateman train carry on. They are conceding over 50 PPG to the halves, while Gerard Beale will be defending the left-wing this weekend, so is Bailey Simonsson in for a hattrick?

Players of Interest:

  • John Bateman was incredible last weekend and there is no reason why this shouldn’t continue against the Warriors. They’ve conceded 60 PPG to right side 2RFs this year.
  • Bailey Simonsson could be set for a big game as he comes up against Gerard Beale. Did anyone see what Maika Sivo did last weekend?
We won’t be seeing any of this at Suncorp this Friday.

BRONCOS V STORM

Friday 2nd August, Suncorp Stadium, 7.55pm

Broncos: 1. Anthony Milford 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Alex Glenn 5. Jamayne Isaako 6. Darius Boyd 7. Jake Turpin 8. Matthew Lodge 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Payne Haas 11. David Fifita 12. Matt Gillett 13. Thomas Flegler

Interchange: 14. James Segeyaro 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Rhys Kennedy 17. Pat Carrigan

Reserves: 18. Tom Dearden 20. Herbie Farnworth 21. Xavier Coates 22. Shaun Fensom

Ins:

  • Herbie Farnworth
  • Matt Gillett
  • Shaun Fensom
  • Thomas Flegler
  • Tom Dearden
  • Xavier Coates

Outs:

  • Keenan Palasia
  • Tevita Pangai Junior

Wenins’ Analysis

Matt Gillett is back after being a late out last weekend, while Thomas Flegler returns from suspension. Tevita Pangai Jnr will miss after pleading guilty and coping his one week ban. Joe Ofahengaue shifts back to the bench and Keenan Palasia drops out of the side. Tom Dearden has been named among the reserves.

The loss of Pangai is a big one for the Broncos but possibly not for SuperCoaches as I am not sure how many would have played him this Friday night against the Storm.

Anthony Milford enjoyed a training run last weekend in the first half, while Kotoni Staggs has been unstoppable since shifting to the right edge but he might find a little bit tougher this weekend coming up against Justin Olam and the left edge Melbourne Storm defence.

Match-up Preview

The Broncos have had it very easy over the past two weeks given they have been up against the Bulldogs and Titans. This Friday night is a whole new ballgame.

As widely known the Storm are incredibly difficult to score against in effectively every position. However, the Sea Eagles managed to do well last weekend with Jake Trbojevic and Martin Taupau scoring 80 or thereabouts and Tom Trbojevic scored in the ’70s. The additional 10 minutes of game time assisted, but still, it was impressive, nonetheless.

If there is one position where the Storm has regularly been leaking points this season it has been down the left-hand side with wingers averaging over 47 PPG and left centres over 48 PPG.

Players of Interest:

  • Regardless of the game being at Suncorp, I will be resting Anthony Milford and Kotoni Staggs. I just can see the Storm being extremely fired up for this one after a shock loss at home last weekend and feel that there will be few points in it or the Storm give the Broncos a bit of a lesson.
  • Corey Oates “hates” scoring tries and the Storm’s right-hand side has been their defensive weakness this year.  
  • The Storm may have conceded under 50 PPG to FRF’s this year, but I can’t find any reason why you would consider benching Payne Haas this year. Martin Taupau and AFB both went very well last weekend and Haas is a freak.

Storm: 1. Jahrome Hughes 2. Suliasi Vunivalu 3. Will Chambers 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Brodie Croft 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Dale Finucane

Interchange: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Christian Welch 16. Joe Stimson 17. Ryan Papenhuyzen

Reserves: 18. Marion Seve 19. Tui Kamikamica 20. Tino Faasuamaleaui 21. Sandor Earl

Ins:

  • Marion Seve
  • Suliasi Vunivalu
  • Tino Faasuamaleaui
  • Tui Kamikamica

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Suliasi Vunivalu returns as the starting winger in place of Sandor Earl, who drops to the reserves.

The Storm is going to be fired up this weekend. I am expecting their big guns to fire and as a non-owner of Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster and co, I am very nervous.

The dropping of Shhhhandor Earl removes an AE nightmare for the weekend.

Match-up Preview

The Broncos were leaking plenty of points to right centres up until the positional shift of Alex Glenn into that position two weeks ago. Since then right-hand side centres have scored 38 and 54 PPG (Will Hopoate).

They’ve interesting conceded the most amount of points to HOK’s, gulp.

Players of Interest:

  • Cameron Smith doesn’t usually put in two below-par games in a row. In fact, he has only scored under 60 once in the week directly following a below-average game this year and that was in round 2. He has a career average of 80 PPG against the Broncos and the Broncos have conceded the most amount of points to HOKs this year.
  • Cameron Munster put 105 points on the Broncos in round 1 this year. He also loves Suncorp Stadium, does anyone remember his round 9 performance against the Eels?

SEA EAGLES V KNIGHTS

Saturday 3rd August, Lottoland, 3pm

Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Brad Parker 4. Moses Suli 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Dylan Walker 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Manase Fainu 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic

Interchange: 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Corey Waddell 16. Morgan Boyle 17. Taniela Paseka

Reserves: 18. Jack Gosiewski 19. Apisai Koroisau 20. Brendan Elliott 21. Lloyd Perrett

Ins:

  • Apisai Koroisau
  • Brendan Elliot
  • Jack Gosiewski
  • Lloyd Perrett

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes.

It was another good lesson learned last weekend. Don’t try to be too cute with your 17’s from a match-up perspective. The Storm had conceded just 37 PPG to FLB’s this year so it looked as if it could have been an underwhelming weekend ahead for Tom Trbojevic. But no, two LB’s and 27 runs later says you never bench Turbo.

Jake Trbojevic finally returned to form with 81 points in 90 minutes. At $517k, he is excellent value this weekend and he is unlikely to get much cheaper.

Match-up Preview

Who knows what to make of the Knights right now, they have been so disappointing of late, having won just one game in the past five weeks and that win was five weeks ago!

They’ve made a few big changes this weekend so their 17 looks very different to what we’ve seen recently, and this makes it difficult to assess how they will perform.

Taking their stats on face value they have been reasonably difficult to score against this year, but it is heavily skewed to the first half of the season. Over the past five rounds, they’ve conceded the second most amount of points to 2RF’s, the fourth most to CTW’s and the fifth most to HOK’s

Players of Interest:

  • Jake Trbojevic shapes as a definite starter for your 17 this week despite the fact that the Knights have conceded the least amount of points to locks this year. It’s hard to bench any Trbojevic at Brookvale.
  • Up until last weekend, the Knights had conceded just 50 PPG to prop. Whilst, Martin Taupau and AFB produced the goods last weekend they also played extended minutes due to Golden Point with Taupau, in particular, playing 57 minutes. Taupau is another high floor guy that could miss due to other members of your squad having more favourable match-ups but arguably shapes as a more certain starter than Andrew Fifita this weekend.
  • For those looking at putting the captain’s armband on Turbo, consider this, his scores at Brookvale Oval this year: 58 (in 42 min), 167 and 106. He missed the first encounter with the Knights earlier this year but scored 73 and 67 points against them last year. Also, FLB’s vs. the Knights over the past five weeks have gone like this… Thompson (80), Tedesco (95), DWZ (58), RTS (41) and Milford (42).
  • With Apisai Koroisau still named within the reserves, Manase Fainu is a definite start option this weekend.

Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Shaun Kenny-Dowall 3. Hymel Hunt 4. Tautau Moga 5. Kurt Mann 6. Mason Lino 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Connor Watson 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Tim Glasby

Interchange: 14. Jacob Saifiti 15. James Gavet 16. Sione Mata’utia 17. Aidan Guerra

Reserves: 18. Jamie Buhrer 19. Beau Fermor 20. Jirah Momoisea 21. Chris Randall

Ins:

  • Aidan Guerra
  • Beau Fermor
  • Chris Randall
  • Jacob Saifiti
  • Jirah Momoisea
  • Lachlan Fitzgibbon
  • Mason Lino

Outs:

  • Danny Levi
  • Herman Ese’ese
  • Jesse Ramien

Wenins’ Analysis

Plenty of changes here. Jesse Ramien, Herman Ese’ese, Danny Levi and Jamie Buhrer have all been dropped. Hymel Hunt moves from wing to centre and Kurt Mann goes from five-eighth to wing. The new five-eighth is Mason Lino. The return of back-rower Lachlan Fitzgibbon from injury pushes Sione Mata’utia to the bench. Connor Watson is the new hooker and Jacob Saifiti also comes into the 17 on the bench.

Connor Watson looked very lively when he entered the fold last weekend and now has secured the starting hooker role with Danny Levi not even named on the bench. He’s a sneaky pick-up for your 5/8 spot at under $500k. He has averaged 72 PPG when starting and playing the full 80 minutes at hooker this year.

Despite their troubles, Kalyn Ponga continues to produce the goods with a 5RA of 91. He’s a freak.

David Klemmer is still available at a relatively cheap price of $534k given his season average of 66 PPG. With a BE of 50 this week his price is going to start to rise.

Match-up Preview

Manly have conceded the most amount of points to left-wingers this season but the least amount of points to left centres….

Players of Interest:

  • For those playing at home, Manly have conceded just 48 PPG to FLB’s this year but a) they don’t Turbo, b) they got Teddy in an off-week and c) Ponga put 81 on them in round 5. Point is, don’t bench Ponga.
  • Hey Carlos, Kurt Mann will be playing on the left-wing this weekend and Manly have conceded the most amount of points to left-wingers this weekend. Double or nothing?
  • Connor Watson is a definite play this weekend given he looks like playing the full 80 minutes at hooker.
Brian To’o cannot be stopped!

BULLDOGS V PANTHERS

Saturday 3rd August, Bankwest Stadium, 5.30pm

Bulldogs: 1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2. Nick Meaney 3. Kerrod Holland 4. Will Hopoate 5. Reimis Smith 6. Jack Cogger 7. Lachlan Lewis 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Michael Lichaa 10. Dylan Napa 11. Josh Jackson 12. Corey Harawira-Naera 13. Adam Elliot

Interchange: 14. Jeremy Marshall-King 15. Renouf Toomaga 16. Danny Fualalo 17. Chris Smith

Reserves: 19. Raymond Faitla-Mariner 20. Brandon Wakeham 21. Jayden Okunbor 22 Ofahiki Ogden

Ins:

  • Brandon Wakeham
  • Jayden Okunbor
  • Ofahiki Ogden
  • Raymond Faitala-Mariner

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes for the Bulldogs.

Will Hopoate has been outstanding of late with a 5RA of 80 PPG. It’s hard to suggest that a Bulldogs outside back could be a POD option for the run home, but could he?

Match-up Preview

There are just two positions where the Panthers feature inside the top five for points conceded and that’s to right edge 2RFs and 5/8s. Apart from that, it’s pretty much slim pickings against the Panthers.

Players of Interest:

  • Will Hopoate has been on fire lately but comes up against a left edge that has conceded just 45 PPG to right CTW’s this year.
  • The only 2RF of interest at the Bulldogs is CHN and he plays on the left edge. Penrith has conceded just 48 PPG to left edge 2RF’s all year. Elliot Whitehead scored 71 points against them last weekend but this included a try.

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Josh Mansour 3. Dean Whare 4. Brent Naden 5. Brian To’o 6. James Maloney 7. Nathan Cleary 8. James Tamou 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Liam Martin 12. Frank Winterstein 13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange: 14. Wayde Egan 15. Jarome Luai 16. Moses Leota 17. Reagan Campbell-Gillard

Reserves: 18. Spencer Leniu 19. Jed Cartwright 20. Stephen Crichton 21. Hame Sele

Ins:

  • Hame Sele
  • Jed Cartwright
  • Spencer Leniu
  • Stephen Crichton

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

No changes for the Panthers.

Nathan Cleary may no longer be $500k anymore but he is still excellent value at $540k given his form of late, which includes a 3RA of 77 and a 5RA of 68 PPG.

Brian To’o cannot stop scoring and faces a Bulldogs left-hand side defence that has conceded over 61 PPG to right-wingers this season.

James Fisher-Harris continues to play massive minutes at prop with another 75 against the Raiders on the weekend. He’ll continue to produce keeper like scores with those minutes and with Reagan Campbell-Gillard seemingly on the outer, those minutes may continue through to the end of the season.

Match-up Preview

It’s the Bulldogs and it’s time to party for the Panthers. Just last week the Roosters had five players score over 60 points and two over 90.

The best scoring positions against the Bulldogs have been in the backs with FLB’s, 5/8’s and right-wingers all averaging over 60 PPG against them, while the left-hand side wingers and right-hand side centres are not too far behind them at close to 55 PPG.

Players of Interest:

  • Let’s start with the negatives. HFB’s have been one of the few positions not to dominate against the Dogs this season with an average score of 50 PPG against. On a closer look, here is how the top five averaging HFB’s have performed against the Bulldogs this year, Moses (46), DCE (yet to play), Cleary (yet to play), Hunt (101) and Reynolds (57). This tells me that I have nothing to fear about playing Cleary this weekend.
  • For the 10% of out there who own Brett Naden and were left bitterly disappointed with his 14 points last weekend, well you may be left disappointed again this weekend. Will Hopoate has been strong in defence this year, allowing 47 PPG to left centres all year.
  • Brian To’o has scored five tries in the past three weeks and this could be set to continue given that the Bulldogs have conceded over 60 PPG to right side wingers this year. Brett Morris and Joseph Manu produced 66 and 67 points against that left-hand side last weekend.
Fifita returns but will he be joining your starting SuperCoach side?

SHARKS V RABBITOHS

Saturday 3rd August, PointsBet Stadium, 7.35pm

Sharks: 1. Matt Moylan 2. Sosaia Feki 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Josh Dugan 5. Josh Morris 6. Shaun Johnson 7. Chad Townsend 8. Aaron Woods 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Matt Prior 11. Briton Nikora 12. Wade Graham 13. Paul Gallen

Interchange: 14. Kurt Capewell 15. Jack Williams 16. Andrew Fifita 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

Reserves: 18. Billy Magoulias 19. Blayke Brailey 20. Ronaldo Mulitalo 21. Kyle Flanagan

Ins:

  • Andrew Fifita
  • Kyle Flanagan
  • Matt Moylan
  • Wade Graham

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Andrew Fifita is back but has been named on the bench. Matt Moylan also returns and this sees Josh Dugan shift to the centres, Josh Morris to the wing and Ronaldo Mulitalo drop out. Wade Graham is a surprise inclusion and this sees Kurt Capewell drop to the bench, while Blayke Brailey and Billy Margoulia drop to the reserves.

Whilst the Fifita return is welcomed, we did not foresee his return from suspension being from the bench. However, there is every chance that he could be a late switch to the starting side or if not then hopefully this first him up to get through a heap of work and offloads as soon as he gets on. It’s one of the harder calls of the week whether to start him or not given this selection and his most recent performances including 13 in 25 minutes (that included a sin bin) against the Warriors, 50 in 57 minutes against the Storm and a 58 in 49 minutes against the Raiders. However, for any of you who have been paying attention to the match-up previews of late, you will note that both the Storm and Raiders are difficult to score SuperCoach points on this season. With over 35% ownership it would be a POD move not to play him, but will it be the right call? Refer below…

Paul Gallen was massive last weekend with 61 minutes being his most time on the field since round 11.

With Blayke Brailey dumped, Jayden Brailey could be set for a full 80 minutes but with less than 4% ownership right now that is not going to impact too many.

Match-up Preview

South’s have proven to be difficult match-ups this season and it was evident last weekend with two of the four players to score more than 60 against them being try-scoring outside backs. In particular, they have they feature in the top three for the fewest points conceded to the left edge (as a whole), FRF’s, 5/8’s, HOK’s, left-wingers and left centres.

Players of Interest:

  • Bronson Xerri was very dangerous on the left edge last weekend, but he comes up against a side that has conceded the second-fewest points to left centres all year.
  • It all points towards being a week to leave Andrew Fifita out of your squad. He’s been named on the bench, is out of form and is up against a side that has conceded the least amount of points to FRF’s all year. However, Paul Vaughan did produce 72 points with 68 coming from pure base against them last weekend.
  • Shaun Johnson has been back to his best since being benched against the Broncos in round 16. He comes up against a side that has conceded 51 PPG to right-hand sided halves this year. At Shark Park and in the form that he showed last weekend it is hard to leave him out of your 17.
  • Whilst South’s have been very good defensively on the left-hand side of the field they have conceded on average 57 PPG to right edge 2RF’s, which makes Briton Nikora a play once again. He was unlucky not to cross for at least one try last weekend, actually, he was about a cm away so you’ve just got to play him again this weekend and hope for a better outcome.
Sam Burgess is a massive inclusion this weekend.

Rabbitohs: 1. Adam Doueihi 2. Dane Gagai 3. James Roberts 4. Braidon Burns 5. Campbell Graham 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Tevita Taola 9. Damien Cook 10. Tom Burgess 11. John Sutton 12. Sam Burgess 13. Cameron Murray

Interchange: 14. Liam Knight 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ethan Lowe 17. Kyle Turner

Reserves: 18. Connor Tracey 20. Corey Allan 21. Jaydn Su’A 21. Dean Britt

Ins:

  • Connor Tracey
  • Corey Allan
  • Liam Knight
  • Sam Burgess

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Sam Burgess is back! His return pushes Ethan Lowe to the bench. Liam Knight also joins the bench on his return from suspension. Dean Britt and Jaydn Su’A drop off the bench to make way for Lowe and Knight.

The inclusion of Sam Burgess is good news not only for the Rabbitohs but also for the 21% of current owners. It will be interesting to see how many minutes he plays after missing so much time off.

Cameron Murray is well and truly back with another strong performance and 60+ minutes. He’s a must-start each week now with a high floor.

It was just a matter of time before Cody Walker regained his mojo and unfortunately for the Dragons that was last weekend. A 108 point score sees the bleeding of his price stop and at $462k he is a massive bargain.

Match-up Preview

The Sharks have also been relatively stoic this season, with their two outliers being FRF’s (third-most) and right halves (second-most). Relevant to Souths, the Sharks have conceded the least amount of points to right edge 2RFs.

Players of Interest:

  • With the Sharks conceding the least amount of points to right edge 2RF’s, coupled with the fact that Sam Burgess has missed so much football recently, I would be considering him as an NPR for my 17 if I owned him.
  • Braidon Burns has been very consistent this year, but he saw his total base drop to 33 last weekend. He faces a challenging match-up against either Josh Morris or Josh Dugan this weekend but with such a high floor for a CTW, he is still an option for your 17.
  • For those considering starting Cody Walker this weekend consider that the Sharks have conceded 50 PPG to left-hand side halves this year.

ROOSTERS V TITANS

Sunday 4th August, SCG, 2pm

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Joey Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Luke Keary 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Isaac Liu 9. Sam Verrills 10. Zane Tetevano 11. Angus Crichton 12. Mitch Aubusson 13. Victor Radley

Interchange: 14. Nat Butcher 15. Poasa Faamausili 16. Lindsay Collins 17. Sitili Tupouniua

Reserves: 18. Matt Ikuvalu 19. Drew Hutchison 20. Lachlan Lam 21. Max Bailey

Ins:

  • Drew Hutchison
  • Lachlan Lam
  • Lindsay Collins
  • Matt Ikuvalu
  • Max Bailey
  • Nat Butcher
  • Poasa Faamausili

Outs:

  • Boyd Cordner
  • Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
  • Siosiua Taukeiaho

Wenins’ Analysis

The loss of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves to suspension and Boyd Cordner and Siosiua Taukeiaho to calf injuries has forced a reshuffle to the starting forward pack. Isaac Liu, Zane Tetevano and Angus Crichton all move into the starting side and the new bench players are Nat Butcher, Poasa Faamausili and Lindsay Collins.

The suspension/injury reshuffle sees former SuperCoach gun, Angus Crichton with a chance to play big minutes on the edge. I still find it hard to believe just how far he has fallen this year.

Taukeiaho will be missing for the next two to three weeks, so he is an obvious sell for those who have held onto him.

After being a late out last weekend, Ryan Hall hasn’t even been named within the reserves for this game.

Match-up Preview

The Roosters had it easy last weekend and they are set to face the Titans this weekend. It’s what dreams are made of for SuperCoach.

The Titans feature in the top three most amount of SuperCoach points conceded in each of the following positions: locks, FLB, 5/8, HFB, right-wing and left centre. There are plenty of points to be had and I highly doubt that the naming of a new coach is going to turn the tables just yet.

Players of Interest:

  • Central to the fortunes of this weekend will be who to place the captain armband on and at the forefront of that discussion will be James Tedesco. The last five FLB scores against the Titans have been, Milford (87), Papenhuyzen (108), Edwards (113), Trbojevic (73) and RTS (84). That’s pretty damning and given that they are up against arguably the best FLB in the game this weekend, it’s Teddy time.
  • Luke Keary massively disappointed last weekend against the Bulldogs but you’ve got to give him another chance here against a side that has conceded 60 PPG to left-sided halves this year. It’s best not to use Darius Boyd’s 19 points last weekend as a benchmark for this decision…Rather consider Keary’s last five weeks, 105, 54, 96, 26, ?
  • Left centres have averaged 50 PPG against the Titans. Should the Roosters put a decent score on the board here then who knows what Latrell Mitchell could do. He’ll be running at Kallum Watkins this weekend.

Titans: 1. Michael Gordon 2. Anthony Don 3. Kallum Watkins 4. Brian Kelly 5. Phillip Sami 6. Tyrone Roberts 7. Ryley Jacks 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Nathan Peats 10. Jack Stockwell 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Sam Stone 13. Jai Whitbread

Interchange: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Brenko Lee 17. Bryce Cartwright

Reserves: 18. Ash Taylor 19. Mitch Rein 20. Will Matthews 21. Leilani Latu

Ins:

  • Ashley Taylor
  • Brenko Lee
  • Brian Kelly
  • Mitch Rein
  • Ryley Jacks
  • Will Matthews

Outs:

  • Alexander Brimson
  • Dale Copley

Wenins’ Analysis

Dale Copley is out with a knee injury and he is replaced in the centres by Brian Kelly. Alexander Brimson is also out injured and he has been replaced in the halves by Ryley Jacks. Leilani Latu has been dropped to the reserves and his spot on the bench is taken by Brenko Lee. Ash Taylor has been named in the extended squad and could be nearing a return.

The only two Titans players to score over 60 points last weekend were both outside backs. They are effectively irrelevant in SuperCoach right now except as a great match-up for the opposition.

Match-up Preview

Interestingly the Roosters have conceded the second most amount of points FRF’s and left-hand side 2RF’s, whilst also leaking the third most amount of SuperCoach points to locks this year.

Players of Interest:

  • Jarrod Wallace shapes as the only relevant Titan this weekend given that the Roosters have historically leaked points to middle forwards.

DRAGONS V EELS

Sunday 4th August, Jubilee Oval, 4pm

Dragons: 1. Corey Norman 2. Jason Saab 3. Euan Aitken 4. Tim Lafai 5. Zac Lomax 6. Gareth Widdop 7. Ben Hunt 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Cameron McInnes 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Tariq Sims 13. James Graham

Interchange: 14. Jeremy Latimore 15. Korbin Sims 16. Patrick Kaufusi 17. Luciano Leilua

Reserves: 18. Tristan Sailor 19. Josh Kerr 20. Matt Dufty 21. Mikaele Ravalawa

Ins:

  • Jeremy Latimore
  • Mikaele Ravalawa
  • Patrick Kaufusi
  • Tristan Sailor

Outs:

Nil

Wenins’ Analysis

Josh Kerr and Matt Dufty have been relegated to the reserves. Patrick Kaufusi and Jeremy Latimore are the new faces on the bench.

Paul Vaughan was back to his best last weekend with 72 points in basically all base in 60 minutes, while James Graham produced 60 points in 72 minutes from lock and is a great pick-up in Draft if still available.

Gareth Widdop got through a full 80-minute game and could be a POD option for the run home at close to $400k and with under 2% current ownership.

Match-up Preview

Did you know that the Eels have conceded the most amount of points to FRF’s and at almost 5 PPG more than any other side? They’ve also conceded the most amount of points to left-side halves.

On the other hand, they have conceded very, very few points to 2RF’s, either side.

Players of Interest:

  • I highlighted Paul Vaughan’s workmanlike performance last round and could very well continue this weekend given that the Eels have conceded the most amount of points to FRF’s this year.
  • Gareth Widdop loves Kogarah Oval and the Eels have conceded the most amount of points to left-sided halves this year. There may just be 2% of you out there, but if you own him then you’ve got to play him!

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Brad Takairangi 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Kane Evans 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Manu Ma’u 13. Nathan Brown

Interchange: 14. Marata Niukore 15. Daniel Alvaro 16. David Gower 17. Tepai Moeroa

Reserves: 18. Josh Hoffman 19. Peni Terepo 20. Jaeman Salmon 21. Andrew Davey

Ins:

  • Andrew Davey
  • Jaeman Salmon
  • Josh Hoffman
  • Michael Jennings
  • Peni Terepo
  • Shaun Lane

Outs:

  • Ethan Parry
  • Oregon Kaufusi

Despite the win last weekend there are plenty of changes for the Eels. Michael Jennings is back in the centres pushing Brad Takairangi to the wing and Ethan Parry out of the side. Shaun Lane returns in the back row and Marata Niukore goes to the bench. Oregon Kaufusi is the man to drop out.

It’s been proven again that the Eels love playing at BankWest with six players scoring over 60 and three over 70.

Nathan Brown is no longer cheap with a $40k price rise following his 87-point performance against the Warriors. This score included an amazing 77 points in pure base in just 68 minutes. At just 1.5% ownership he is a seriously good POD for your 2RF position.

Waqa Blake produced 55 points in his first appearance for the Eels and assuming he is ok with passing the ball then there could be plenty of points going forward with Maika Sivo outside him and a relatively high floor given his base.

Match-up Preview

The Dragons let eight South’s players last weekend score over 50 points and four over 60 points. This has followed on from the trend raised in last week’s analysis that outlined the fact that the Dragons have been one of the easiest teams to score against over the past five weeks.

However, this game is at their fortress and it’s not at BankWest, which will rule some of the Eels players out, or will it?

The Dragons have conceded the most amount of points to FLB’s, the second most to right 2RF’s and left centres, the third most to right halves and right-wingers, while they have conceded the least amount of points to right centres.

Players of Interest:

  • Clint Gutherson, aka the King of BankWest, lifted his career average at the Eels new home ground to 67 PPG after his 81-point performance against the Warriors. Away from home this year his average drops to 49 PPG (excluding his injury forced zero). However, the Dragons have conceded the MOST amount of points to FLB’s this year, but how have FLB’s performed at Kogarah? Johnston (44), Meaney (21) & Moylan (78). This to me is rather inconclusive except for the fact that you could argue that Gutherson is the best FLB out of the lot, with the closest link being Moylan. As it stands, I am 50/50 on this one but if I was forced to make a side then I’d probably lean towards sitting him. I feel an upset coming on this weekend.
  • Given that they have conceded the most amount of points to left centres, Waqa Blake comes into contention this weekend as a sneaky POD option. He produced 45 in pure base last round and will be running at Euan Aikten this weekend.
  • If Gutherson is the king of BankWest then what does that make Mitchell Moses? He has an average of over 70 there this year but must face the Dragons away from there this round. Away from home, his average drops right down to just 55 PPG. Depending on how deep your squad is, Moses would definitely be a guy that I’d consider benching this week.

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WeninRome

Wenin is one of the founding fathers of the NRLSCTalk website who's Tuesday Teams Analysis has been a feature post on the site for close to a decade. He also loves a good steak bet!

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    stormers
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    stormers

    Who’s playing who is absolutely pointless! You play your best players!

    thatsmyteam
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    thatsmyteam

    You should have a deep squad of over 20 guns by now making who plays who very relevant given we only get to field 17…

    I hope the new analysis format carries over next season. This is an epic read read each week.

    Content has really gone up a level this season

    stormers
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    stormers

    You keep playing on match ups mate and you’ll drop in the rankings!

    IANAGA
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    IANAGA

    i think u broke the record for most thumbs down LOL

    Dos
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    Dos

    This content is amazing, particularly relevant for this time of year when most elite teams have more than 17 players to pick from…

    Really stuck on the Moses vs Munster argument, but I think you have made me lean towards Munster Wenin.

    BT
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    BT

    You play your best players? Have you only got 17 of them? Need this valuable insight when squads are deep this time of year.

    IANAGA
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    IANAGA

    lol prob one of the worst comments ive read on here. you have no idea stormers. stick to rugby

    bigduke6
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    bigduke6

    It was funny though.

    White Lightning
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    White Lightning

    Great analysis bro it’s always a good read. I was going to prioritize my Nikora to Ma’u trade over my RTS to Tedesco trade but after reading your comment on Nikora I’m thinking he’s a play & I should do the Tedesco trade in. Thoughts & thanks.

    dekkar
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    dekkar

    Love the stats mate!! Beautiful work…

    POD Hunter
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    Gun

    Wenin this new approach is great to keep teams relevant at this stage of the season – esp for those of us low on trades .

    And it looks like a lot of effort .
    Cheers

    BT
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    BT

    Thanks Wenin, love this article. Jazz, Fifita, AFB, Kapow and Matto. Need to pick 3. Gotta love this time of year! lol

    The Rookie
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    The Rookie

    Awesome Article . Who would you play out of Matterson or Tevaga for the last Second Row spot. Leaning towards Tevaga, just because he is more of a POD. Thanks Wenin. smile

    13th Viking
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    13th Viking

    Love the article. Little fixup… Jason Taumalolo “such a low floor”

    IANAGA
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    IANAGA

    wenin – would you bring in sivo for marsters for the run home?

    Cardy
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    Cardy

    Thanks awesome My favourite read every week

    The Duke
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    The Duke

    Many thanks Wenin, had I more than two trades left, I would bring in Brown.