Surge’s Teams Analysis – Round 15

After the SuperCoach year we’ve had, it has become somewhat redundant to refer to any particular round of NRL “crazy” but last week was certainly up there. From BJ Leilua’s one minute cameo, to the Rapana and Kikau injuries, along with the usual Origin players backing up shenanigans, it has left team planning in a shambles.

I’m afraid to even look at how many fit players I’ll have for round 17 – all I know is that it’s less than the number of trades I have left…and that ain’t many.

Let’s get to it.

THURSDAY, June 14

Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs, 7.50pm at ANZ Stadium

Eels: 1 Bevan French, 2 Josh Hoffman, 3 Michael Jennings, 4 Jarryd Hayne, 5 George Jennings, 6 Clint Gutherson (c), 7 Corey Norman, 8 Daniel Alvaro, 9 Cameron King, 10 Peni Terepo, 11 Manu Ma’u, 12 Brad Takairangi, 13 Nathan Brown Interchange: 14 Reed Mahoney, 15 Tim Mannah (c), 16 David Gower, 17 Marata Niukore

Reserves: 18 Siosaia Vave, 19 Suaia Matagi, 20 Jaeman Salmon, 21 Mitchell Moses

Rabbitohs: 1 Alex Johnston, 2 Campbell Graham, 3 Greg Inglis (c), 4 Dane Gagai, 5 Robert Jennings, 6 Cody Walker, 7 Adam Reynolds, 8 Thomas Burgess, 9 Damien Cook, 10 George Burgess, 11 John Sutton, 12 Angus Crichton, 13 Sam Burgess Interchange: 14 Adam Doueihi, 15 Cameron Murray, 16 Jason Clark, 17 Tevita Tatola

Reserves: 18 Robbie Farah, 19 Hymel Hunt, 20 Mark Nicholls, 21 Tyrell Fuimaono

Analysis

Manu Ma’u ($617k, 90 BE) returns to the left edge, pushing Marata Niukore ($197k, -2 BE) to the interchange. Reed Mahoney gets his second game as the bench utility.

The Origin players return for the Bunnies, pushing Cameron Murray ($444k, 33 BE) and Adam Doueihi ($273k, -26 BE) to the interchange. Mark Nicholls ($286k, 44 BE) misses out and is more than ready for culling.

Player(s) of Interest:

Cameron Murray ($444k, 33 BE). Even the most optimistic owners by now can admit Murray isn’t a keeper. Considering that he misses round 17 and plays the most loaded position this year, moving him on should be a simple decision. But consider that some or all of the Burgess boys could miss round 16 and you might be moving on someone likely to play big minutes next round. Murray’s scores when playing 60-plus minutes this year – 69 in 63mins, 62 in 61mins and 67 in 68mins, with no attacking stats in those games.

Palavi(s) of Interest:

3-Palavi – Bevan French ($231k, 46 BE)

3-Palavi – Junior Tatola ($232k, 35 BE)

3-Palavi – Reed Mahoney ($164k, -13 BE)

2-Palavi – Marata Niukore ($197k, -2 BE)

FRIDAY, June 15

NQ Cowboys v NZ Warriors, 6.00pm at 1300SMILES Stadium

Cowboys: 1 Michael Morgan, 2 Kyle Feldt, 3 Kane Linnett, 4 Enari Tuala, 5 Javid Bowen, 6 Te Maire Martin, 7 Johnathan Thurston (c), 8 Matthew Scott (c), 9 Jake Granville, 10 Scott Bolton, 11 Gavin Cooper, 12 Coen Hess, 13 Jason Taumalolo Interchange: 14 Ben Hampton, 15 Shaun Fensom, 16 Corey Jensen, 17 Sam Hoare Reserves: 18 Justin O’Neill, 19 Ethan Lowe, 20 Mitchell Dunn, 21 Francis Molo

Warriors: 1 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 2 David Fusitu’a, 3 Peta Hiku, 4 Solomone Kata, 5 Ken Maumalo, 6 Blake Green, 7 Shaun Johnson, 8 James Gavet, 9 Issac Luke, 10 Agnatius Paasi, 11 Isaiah Papali’i, 12 Tohu Harris, 13 Adam Blair Interchange: 14 Karl Lawton, 15 Chris Satae, 16 Bunty Afoa, 17 Simon Mannering

Reserves: 18 Gerard Beale, 19 Mason Lino, 20 Liligiifo Sao, 21 Anthony Gelling

Analysis

Changes aplenty for the Cows, with Michael Morgan, Kane Linnett ($343k, 37 BE), Javid Bowen and Scott Bolton ($379k, 68 BE) in and Coote, O’Neill and Winterstein out. Well overdue, frankly.

The Warriors welcome back RTS ($481k, 87 BE), which pushes Peta Hiku to the centres. Does Simon Mannering’s ($473k, 58 BE) international retirement and thus his round 16 and 17 availability make him interesting at the price? Nah, I don’t think so either.

Player(s) of Interest:

David Fusitua ($423k, 20 BE). Has featured in two of the past three 10 Commandments of Supercoach as an example not to chase last week’s points. Sure he scored 105 last week, so let’s look at how he fares after tonning up:

  • 105, then 32, 24, 23 (round 1 2017)
  • 105, then 33 (round 25 2017)
  • 140, then 27, 61, 27 (round 14 2016)

Still interested?

Palavi(s) of Interest:

2-Palavi – Chris Satae ($182k, 18 BE)

2-Palavi – Javid Bowen ($224k, 44 BE)

2-Palavi – Te Maire Martin ($269k, 3 BE)

2-Palavi – Enari Tuala ($282k, -37 BE)

2-Palavi – Sam Hoare ($197k, 1 BE)

Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers, 7.55pm at Allianz Stadium

Roosters: 1 James Tedesco, 2 Daniel Tupou, 3 Latrell Mitchell, 4 Joseph Manu, 5 Blake Ferguson, 6 Luke Keary, 7 Cooper Cronk, 8 Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, 9 Jake Friend (c), 10 Dylan Napa, 11 Boyd Cordner, 12 Mitchell Aubusson, 13 Isaac Liu Interchange: 14 Siosiua Taukeiaho, 15 Zane Tetevano, 16 Kurt Baptiste, 17 Victor Radley

Reserves: 18 Nat Butcher, 19 Lindsay Collins, 20 Paul Momirovski, 21 Billy Smith

Panthers: 1 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 2 Christian Crichton, 3 Tyrone Peachey, 4 Dean Whare, 5 Tyrone Phillips, 6 James Maloney (c), 7 Nathan Cleary, 8 Trent Merrin, 9 Sione Katoa, 10 Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 11 Corey Harawira-Naera, 12 Isaah Yeo, 13 James Fisher-Harris Interchange: 14 Wayde Egan, 15 Kaide Ellis, 16 Jack Hetherington, 17 James Tamou

Reserves: 18 Jarome Luai, 19 Liam Martin, 20 Tyrone May, 21 Nick Lui-Toso

Analysis

Superstar Mitch Aubusson ($312k, 16 BE) gets another start on the edge for the Roosters, helping owners who got on six rounds ago, with TKO ($417k, 33 BE) on the interchange.

Kikau’s injury is horrendous news for owners but, on the bright side, at least it gives Jack Hetherington ($175k, 18 BE) a chance to log some minutes and maybe be a late season cow of sorts.

Player of Interest: Sione Katoa ($279k, 33 BE). As friend of the site Trent Copeland was quick to message me after news broke of Peter Wallace’s retirement, Katoa would’ve been a good hold for me (after accidentally having him from round 1). Gee, thanks champ!

At $279k Katoa isn’t a must, but the dual flexibility and guaranteed minutes in round 17 is awfully tasty.

Palavi(s) of Interest:

3-Palavi – Kurt Baptiste ($164k, 45 BE)

3-Palavi – Dylan Napa ($270k, 52 BE)

3-Palavi – Nat Butcher ($220k, 0 BE)

2-Palavi – Sione Katoa ($279k, 33 BE)

2-Palavi – Jack Hetherington ($175k, 18 BE)

2-Palavi – Kaide Ellis ($164k, 24 BE)

2-Palavi – Christian Crichton ($269k, 9 BE)

SATURDAY, June 16

Canterbury Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans, 3.00pm, Belmore Sports Ground

Bulldogs: 1 Moses Mbye, 2 Brett Morris, 3 John Olive, 4 Will Hopoate, 5 Marcelo Montoya, 6 Jeremy Marshall-King, 7 Matt Frawley, 8 Aaron Woods, 9 Michael Lichaa, 10 David Klemmer, 11 Josh Jackson (c), 12 Raymond Faitala-Mariner, 13 Adam Elliott Interchange: 14 Clay Priest, 15 Kerrod Holland, 16 Renouf Toomaga, 17 Aiden Tolman

Reserves: 18 Reimis Smith, 19 Rhyse Martin, 20 Greg Eastwood, 21 Lachlan Lewis

Titans: 1 Michael Gordon, 2 Anthony Don, 3 Dale Copley, 4 Brenko Lee, 5 Phillip Sami, 6 AJ Brimson, 7 Ashley Taylor, 8 Jack Stockwell, 9 Nathan Peats, 10 Ryan James (c), 11 Kevin Proctor, 12 Keegan Hipgrave, 13 Jai Arrow Interchange: 14 Mitch Rein, 15 Will Matthews, 16 Moeaki Fotuaika, 17 Morgan Boyle

Reserves: 18 Bryce Cartwright, 19 Leilani Latu, 20 Kane Elgey, 21 Jai Whitbread

Analysis

The Bulldogs went close to toppling the Dragons last week, with the only change being Renouf Toomaga ($164k, 31 BE) to the interchange for Klemmer. John Olive ($177k, -15 BE) plays his third game but there’s zero chance you weren’t aware of that.

Jack Stockwell ($248k, 41 BE) starts, with below-par cheapies Will Matthews ($190k, 29 BE) and Morgan Boyle ($269k, 37 BE) on the interchange.

Player of Interest:

Will Hopoate ($501k, 58 BE). We’ve discussed how poor CTW is all year and that’s doubly so for round 17 options now. Hoppa has been a base stat beast for a while now and his 35 BPPG for a center is outstanding. The 5RA of 57 isn’t astounding but check out the averages of other ‘premium’ round 17 options like Jarrod Croker and you’ll see why Hoppa is a Player of Interest this week.

Palavi(s) of Interest:

3-Palavi – Keegan Hipgrave ($233k, 40 BE)

2-Palavi – Jack Stockwell ($248k, 41 BE)

2-Palavi – Will Matthews ($190k, 29 BE)

2-Palavi – AJ Brimson ($241k, 23 BE)

2-Palavi – Renouf Toomaga ($164k, 31 BE)

1-Palavi – John Olive ($177k, -15 BE)

St George-Illawarra Dragons v Manly Sea Eagles, 5.30pm, WIN Stadium

Dragons: 1 Matt Dufty, 2 Nene Macdonald, 3 Euan Aitken, 4 Tim Lafai, 5 Kurt Mann, 6 Gareth Widdop (c), 7 Ben Hunt, 8 James Graham, 9 Cameron McInnes, 10 Paul Vaughan, 11 Tyson Frizell, 12 Tariq Sims, 13 Jack De Belin Interchange: 14 Jeremy Latimore, 15 Jason Nightingale, 16 Leeson Ah Mau, 17 Jacob Host

Reserves: 18 Blake Lawrie, 19 Patrick Herbert, 20 Reece Robson, 21 Hame Sele

Sea Eagles: 1 Tom Trbojevic, 2 Jorge Taufua, 3 Moses Suli, 4 Brian Kelly, 5 Akuila Uate, 6 Trent Hodkinson, 7 Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8 Addin Fonua-Blake, 9 Manase Fainu, 10 Martin Taupau, 11 Joel Thompson, 12 Frank Winterstein, 13 Jake Trbojevic Interchange: 14 Matthew Wright, 15 Brad Parker, 16 Shaun Lane, 17 Taniela Paseka

Reserves: 18 Thomas Wright, 19 Lewis Brown, 20 Toafofoa Sipley, 21 Lloyd Perrett

Analysis

The Dragons are unchanged, which means Kurt Mann ($188k, 5 BE) starts ahead of Jason Nightingale, who gets to play the patented “Kurt Mann” role off the bench.

Debutant Manase Fainu ($164k, 18 BE) looks to have the hooking role for the next 8-10 weeks, with no bench utility named. Moses Suli and Frank Winterstein ($260k, 39 BE) start, pushing Brad Parker and Shaun Lane ($447k, 15 BE) to the interchange.

Player of Interest:

Nene MacDonald ($377k, 43 BE). More than $100k cheaper than Aitken, MacDonald busted out of a slump last week with a 67. You know what else helps the good times roll? Facing turnstile Akuila Uate. MacDonald is just 2.5% owned even after attracting some interest earlier in the season with a 3RA of 78 so the potential (with decent base stats too) is there to support his case as a POD.

Palavi(s) of Interest:

3-Palavi – Taniela Paseka ($201k, 38 BE)

3-Palavi – Toafofoa Sipley ($176k, -6 BE)

1-Palavi – Manase Fainu ($164k, 18 BE)

1-Palavi – Kurt Mann ($188k, 5 BE)

Cronulla Sharks v Brisbane Broncos, 7.35pm, Southern Cross Group Stadium

Sharks: 1 Valentine Holmes, 2 Sione Katoa, 3 Jesse Ramien, 4 Ricky Leutele, 5 Edrick Lee, 6 Matt Moylan, 7 Chad Townsend, 8 Andrew Fifita, 9 Jayden Brailey, 10 Matt Prior, 11 Luke Lewis, 12 Wade Graham (c), 13 Paul Gallen (c) Interchange: 14 Joseph Paulo, 15 James Segeyaro, 16 Jack Williams, 17 Jayson Bukuya

Reserves: 18 Kurt Capewell, 19 Avagalu Seumanufagai, 20 Scott Sorensen, 21 Sosaia Feki

Broncos: 1 Darius Boyd (c), 2 Corey Oates, 3 James Roberts, 4 Jordan Kahu, 5 Jamayne Isaako, 6 Anthony Milford, 7 Kodi Nikorima, 8 Matthew Lodge, 9 Andrew McCullough, 10 Sam Thaiday, 11 Alex Glenn, 12 Jaydn Su’A, 13 Josh McGuire Interchange: 14 Patrick Mago, 15 Joe Ofahengaue, 16 Tevita Pangai jnr, 17 Kotoni Staggs

Reserves: 18 Sam Tagataese, 19 Troy Dargan, 20 Tom Opacic, 21 David Fifita

Analysis

Sharks are 1-17, and the Broncos’ form shouldn’t scare anyone off holding the likes of Matt Moylan ($516k, 99 BE) or Andrew Fifita ($663k, 104 BE) despite the high break evens.

James Roberts ($482k, 54 BE) returns for the Broncos, which is further good news for those who held Jamayne Isaako ($530k, 55 BE) who at this stage may rival Kikau for cash cow of the year.

Player of Interest:

Paul Gallen ($518k, -5 BE). Given that Gallen doesn’t play round 17, he should only be a consideration if you think he is a lock for your final 20. Don’t be seduced by the low BE, if you’re getting him now it is to keep him. A season-high 70 base points in 69 minutes is not just vintage Galbot, it’s “please pee in this cup, Mr Gallen” territory. The bloke is almost 37!

Palavi(s) of Interest:

3-Palavi – Patrick Mago ($174k, 29 BE)

2-Palavi – Jack Williams ($205k, 17 BE)

2-Palavi – Kotoni Staggs ($188k, 40 BE)

1-Palavi – Sione Katoa ($192k, -18 BE)

SUNDAY, June 17

Newcastle Knights v Melbourne Storm, 2.00pm at McDonald Jones Stadium

Knights: 1 Kalyn Ponga, 2 Ken Sio, 3 Sione Mata’utia, 4 Cory Denniss, 5 Shaun Kenny-Dowall, 6 Connor Watson, 7 Jack Cogger, 8 Herman Ese’ese, 9 Slade Griffin, 10 Josh King, 11 Lachlan Fitzgibbon, 12 Mitchell Barnett, 13 Aidan Guerra (c) Interchange: 14 Danny Levi, 15 Chris Heighington, 16 Luke Yates, 18 Jacob Lillyman

Reserves: 18 Nicholas Meaney, 19 Sam Stone, 20 Brock Lamb, 21 Brent Naden

Storm: 1 Billy Slater, 2 Suliasi Vunivalu, 3 Will Chambers, 4 Curtis Scott, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Ryley Jacks, 8 Tim Glasby, 9 Cameron Smith, 10 Nelson Asofa-Solomona, 11 Felise Kaufusi, 12 Ryan Hoffman, 13 Kenny Bromwich Interchange: 14 Brandon Smith, 15 Christian Welch, 16 Joe Stimson, 17 Jahrome Hughes

Reserves: 18 Young Tonumaipea, 19 Sam Kasiano, 20 Patrick Kaufusi, 21 Cheyse Blair

Analysis

The Knights have 2017 cash cow Luke Yates ($251k, 37 BE) on the interchange for Jamie Buhrer, who tore his ACL, as the only change. Lachlan Fitzgibbon Luke Yates ($560k, 100 BE) owners face a decision this week.

Billy Slater, Curtis Scott ($331k, 70 BE) and Will Chambers return for the Storm, while Jesse Bromwich is out for 4-6 weeks. Brother Kenny Bromwich ($302k, 34 BE) comes into the starting side for him.

Player of Interest:

Suliasi Vunivalu ($338k, 46 BE). Having a poor year by his standards, with only six tries in 13 games. Vunivalu has shown more than enough in recent years that he is capable of going on lengthy scoring binges and flirting as a premium CTW option. Plays round 17 and is well priced.

Palavi(s) of Interest:

3-Palavi – Cory Denniss ($177k, 11 BE)

3-Palavi – Chris Heighington ($249k, 25 BE)

3-Palavi – Luke Yates ($251k, 37 BE)

3-Palavi – Joe Stimson ($233k, 25 BE)

Wests Tigers v Canberra Raiders, 4.10pm, Campbelltown Stadium

Wests Tigers: 1 Corey Thompson, 2 Malakai Watene-Zelezniak, 3 Esan Marsters, 4 Mahe Fonua, 5 Kevin Naiqama, 6 Josh Reynolds, 7 Luke Brooks, 8 Russell Packer (c), 9 Matt McIlwrick, 10 Ben Matulino, 11 Chris Lawrence, 12 Robbie Rochow, 13 Elijah Taylor Interchange: 14 Alex Twal, 15 Matthew Eisenhuth, 16 Josh Aloiai, 17 Tim Grant

Reserves: 18 Michael Chee-Kam, 19 Tyson Gamble, 20 Sauaso Sue, 21 Chris McQueen

Raiders: 1 Jack Wighton, 2 Nick Cotric, 3 Jarrod Croker (c), 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Michael Oldfield, 6 Blake Austin, 7 Aidan Sezer, 8 Iosia Soliola, 9 Josh Hodgson, 10 Shannon Boyd, 11 Joseph Tapine, 12 Elliott Whitehead, 13 Josh Papalii Interchange: 14 Siliva Havili, 15 Luke Bateman, 16 Dunamis Lui, 17 Liam Knight

Reserves: 18 Emre Guler, 19 Brad Abbey, 20 Jack Murchie, 21 Craig Garvey

Analysis

Yet another backline reshuffle for the Tigers, with Lolohea the one left without a spot when the music stopped. That puts Corey Thompson ($371k, 80 BE) back at fullback and MWZ and Kevin Naiqama on wing. Not that the forwards are much different, with the fourth regular hooker in Matt McIlwrick ($283k, 50 BE) pushing Elijah Taylor ($389k, 11 BE) to lock and Robbie Rochow coming back from the dead at the expense of Michael Chee Kam (sigh). Cleary is becoming the bane of SuperCoaches with these stunts.

For the Raiders, Michael Oldfield ($363k, 116 BE) was not the cheapie we wanted to replace Jordan Rapana. Josh Hodgson ($481k, 54 BE) makes his season debut and renders Siliva Havili irrelevant.

Player of Interest:

BJ Leilua ($424k, 107 BE). Not a final 20 candidate and will hemorrhage cash after his duck on the weekend. But plays round 17 and, considering he’ll be running at John Olive, which could prove more valuable. A genuine dilemma for owners, of which I am one.

Palavi(s) of Interest:

3-Palavi – Aiden Sezer ($208k, 36 BE)

2-Palavi – Liam Knight ($178k, 15 BE)

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CoG
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CoG

Thanks Surge top work . Didnt get to see much football over the weekend but i caught the Titans game . K Hipgrave is a very rough diamond but has made my watch list

magee
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magee

As long as his good PPM isn’t erased by his frequent sin bin visits.

imnotacartoon
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imnotacartoon

Any interest in Kurt Mann now he is playing on the wing outside Aitken?

I’m concerned Aitken wont pass him the ball.

ch00nz
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ch00nz

i think you are right. nightingales average is down massively after switching to aitkens side this year. mann is a no go for me.

KillerCumberland
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KillerCumberland

Had 36 in Base last week.
Will probably play halves 16’17 and back to the wing. Hunt can throw l OK no to him an kick to him along with his Base he’s better that olive imo because Saints have more scoring ability

ch00nz
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ch00nz

nightingale only has 1 try to his name, thats the concern. hunt hasnt been feeding that wing any ball, neither has aitken

ch00nz
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ch00nz

All wallace’s retirement does it is give Katoa better security, but he is still going to be sharing the hooker role like he has since wallace has been injured. No upside and wont make any money. But agree, if u have him, hold for 17, but i wouldnt want anyone jumping on thinking wallace’s retirement will change anything

2″Manase Fainu ($164k, 18 BE) looks to have the hooking role for the next 8-10 weeks, with no bench utility named”.
Wont Tom Wright be that utility?

Emcee
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Emcee

Think you mean Matthew Wright. He covered Hooker last week & with both Wright & Parker on the bench, I think he’ll cover hooker again. Hopefully Fainu being a specialist hooker will get 50-60 minutes.

KillerCumberland
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KillerCumberland

Anyone heard the murmurs that SJ an RTS may not travel to Denver, Madge has said they are carrying niggles and this may be a great time to blood some youth and Get allnthe Big names back for October Test series in England. The Players association has already squashed this mid year overseas test schedule for next year’s players don’t like it. SJ RTS travelling 40 hours return for a nothing game all while they have a real look in this comp for the first time in many years. Madge should make a pact by saying you declare your self… Read more »

The Ghost Who Walks
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The Ghost Who Walks

Great read as always!

magee
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magee

Is Nicholls worth holding for R16 with the Burgi out?