By Troy Whittaker (@troywhittaker98)
Round 11 is here and Punter Problems has crunched the numbers and analysed the form to help you turn a profit this weekend. Good luck and happy punting!
Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers
Back in the winner’s circle last weekend, the second-placed Panthers are further boosted by the return of marquee halfback Nathan Cleary after a six-week injury layoff. The Tigers, too, were impressive in Round 10, snapping a three-game losing streak, and can jump as high as third with another victory. Three of the past four matches between Wests and Penrith have eclipsed 40 points. Both teams are in good attacking form and we’re expecting history to repeat – back the Overs.
Tip: Over 39.5 points @ $1.90 (UBet)
Parramatta Eels v New Zealand Warriors
The third-placed Warriors were sent crashing back to reality after being walloped 32-nil by the Roosters on their own turf last weekend. Parramatta remain tethered to the bottom of the ladder following a tight loss to the Bulldogs. They may be at home, but we can’t see the Eels enjoying success this week, either. New Zealand is statistically superior in just about every category and that should translate to dominance over the Eels. Hooker Isaac Luke is also back for the visitors. Take the Warriors head-to-head.
Tip: New Zealand Warriors @ $1.83 (Bet365)
Brisbane Broncos v Sydney Roosters
We’ve waited the better part of three months, but the last round the Roosters finally put together the kind of clinical performance we were expecting from the get-go with a 32-point shutout of the Warriors. However, the effort will count for little if they don’t back it up. Meanwhile, the Broncos were embarrassed by the Sea Eagles and are struggling big time with injury. Jack Bird, Alex Glenn, Payne Haas, Josh McGuire and Matt Gillett are all on the sidelines. Given this, the Roosters should come away with two competition points.
Tip: Sydney Roosters @ $1.62 (Bet365)
Gold Coast Titans v Newcastle Knights
Gold Coast has slid down to 15th on the ladder and risk falling into last place with another loss. While they’ve been winless for five weeks, their biggest chance to break the unwanted streak comes against a depleted Knights side. Newcastle has lost two games back to back and also desperately need a win. Though the Titans rank last for defence in the competition and the Knights are second-last, neither side is setting the world on fire in attack either. The total of 45.5 is very high and we’re happy to select the Under.
Tip: Under 45.5 @ $1.97 (Bet365)
North Queensland Cowboys v South Sydney Rabbitohs
South Sydney is flying after comprehensively beating the table-topping Dragons last weekend to climb into fifth spot. North Queensland was abysmal against the Tigers in Round 10; the Cowboys attack looking extremely pedestrian. On paper, this would seem an easy win for Souths, but theory doesn’t mean much in the NRL. Still, the Bunnies should win here, though it might be close.
Tip: South Sydney Rabbitohs @ $1.76 (Unibet)
Melbourne Storm v Manly Sea Eagles
Cameron Smith might be suspended for this match, but we still see the result going firmly the Storm’s way. Yes, Manly was much improved last week against the Broncos and the Storm was poor in a tight win over the Titans. However, the gulf between these sides is huge. Melbourne has won 8 of its last 11 matches against Manly and the past three straight. We’re confident Craig Bellamy’s men will take this one by more than a converted try.
Tip: Melbourne Storm – 5.5 @ $1.85 (Palmer Bet)
St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders
The Dragons dropped just their second game of the year in a very uncharacteristic performance last round. Canberra, on the other hand, enters this match after playing out a very familiar scenario: letting a comfortable lead slip. St George Illawarra is still the clear competition leader and boasts the best attack and second-best defence in the NRL. The Raiders have the seventh-worst defence, despite a decent attacking record. Against the Dragons, who will be hungry to prove they won’t fade this season, their defensive lapses will be exploited. We predict a commanding win to the Saints in Mudgee.
Tip: St George Illawarra Dragons halftime/fulltime @ $1.73 (Palmer Bet)
Cronulla Sharks v Canterbury Bulldogs
After a slow start to the season, the Sharks are well and truly in form with four straight wins. The Bulldogs were lucky to clinch a tight game against the cellar-dwelling Eels in Round 10, but are still struggling to score points. Sharks prop Andrew Fifita is in career-best form while captain Paul Gallen will play his 150th match at Southern Cross Group Stadium. Star centre Josh Dugan is named in jersey 21 and may be a late inclusion to Cronulla’s lineup. At home and playing well, the Sharks will prove too good for the Dogs in our minds.
Tip: Cronulla Sharks @ $1.52 (Bet365)