Another very solid slate of Saturday games this week with Souths v Raiders, Tigers v Knights and Cowboys v Titans to keep us entertained all afternoon and evening.
This week for the first time I am utilising the dominator, courtesy of the NRL Supercoach Pros website. I haven’t used this before, but basically it takes the stats for the year to date and uses them to highlight the expected scores of a particular position player on a particular team, based on the scores that other players in that position have scored against that time so far this season – i.e. Fullbacks v the Titans.
To check the data I have cross-referenced it against the posn v team table on the NRL Supercoach Stats and it matches up fairly well. Hopefully this will highlight to us the potential weaknesses of teams, so we can then select players coming up against that weakness.
So in summary, and I don’t think many of these numbers will surprise you, the best plays position wise for today’s games are:
- Fullback – Cowboys (+25), Rabbitohs (+19)
- Left Wing – Tigers (+9), Raiders (+7)
- Right Wing – Tigers (+15), Knights (+14)
- Left Centre – Cowboys (+21), Tigers (+16)
- Right Centre – Rabbitohs (+7), Tigers (+5)
- Left Half – Cowboys (+25), Tigers (+18)
- Right Half – Cowboys (+34), Rabbitohs (+12)
- Left Edge – Titans (+17), Knights (+5)
- Right Edge – Rabbitohs (+13), Cowboys (+8)
- Middle – Tigers (+9), Titans (+6)
- Hooker – Raiders (+17), Titans (+14)
So no surprise in the backs to see plenty of love for the Cowboys (v the Titans) and the Tigers (v the Knights). The forwards are a bit more interesting with the Titans (v the Cowboys) getting a bit of love, highlighting the poor form of the Cowboys forwards in the early part of the season. This matches well with the posn v team data on the Cowboys, which shows they give up the most SC points in the comp to Hookers and Second Rowers, and the 3rd most to Front Rowers.
From here then let’s try and build a team.
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We have to go with Lachlan Coote ($9.0m) who is an absolute steal at that price. We will partner him with their left centre Justin O’Neill at only $9.7m.
If Johnathan Thurston ($17.4m) still has a pulse he will surely have a monster game this week, and he is locked in, although Benji Marshall at a much cheaper price of $13.1m could be a good option also.
Siliva Havili ($8.7m) is very cheap and even though he won’t play 80 minutes, based on the data above is a solid buy. The Titans hooker position this week is set to nab some solid points, and we have been given a gift with Mitch Rein ($13.3m) looking set to play the full 80 minutes in place of Nathan Peats. I am going to back those two cheaper players up with a big gun and lock in Jason Taumalolo ($23.8m) to have another strong game this week.
We have $18.1m left in the kitty, which is the exact price of David Nofoaluma who will be locked into that final position. I like the look of him up against Ken Sio, and hopefully he can cross for a try or two. Michael Morgan ($16.2m) could also have been a good option here, but I am trying to hedge my bets just in case the Cowboys don’t show up again this week.
So that’s it for this week, trying to do a bit more in-depth research and see how it goes. If this doesn’t work I will go back to my tried and tested approach of just picking a team quickly in 2 minutes and seeing what happens – last week it was a 30th out of 32 result, so not the best!