Lakey’s Teams Analysis – Round 17

It’s bye round part deux for round 17, a weekend that we’ve been prepping for all season and I don’t know about you, but I still feel woefully underdone. Already without a host of names thanks to the bye and Origin, these teams have also thrown a few curveballs at us that weren’t expected, both good and bad.

Before we get into the brunt of the analysis, I just want to mention the Warriors game last weekend. I have no affiliation towards the club apart from the appreciation for all they’ve done the past few years, and I still found myself getting mildly emotional watching the boys run out to a capacity crowd at Mt. Smart Stadium. It was beautiful to see. The fans reactions gave me goose bumps and I’m glad they got to experience a win on top of that. Just listen to it.

So, Kia ora e hoa ma. Na ka mihi. (I hope that translates correctly).

CRONULLA SHARKS v MELBOURNE STORM

Thursday, 7.50pm, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Cronulla Sharks

1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Connor Tracey 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Royce Hunt 11. Briton Nikora 12. Wade Graham 13. Dale Finucane

Bench: 14. Aiden Tolman 15. Cameron McInnes 16. Teig Wilton 17. Andrew Fifita

Reserves: 18. Braydon Trindall 19. Jesse Colquhoun 20. Kade Dykes 21. Braden Hamlin-Uele 22. Lachlan Miller

Changes: Connor Tracey in
Siosifa Talakai out

Winner: Nicho Hynes ($706k / 96 pts / BE 48) was the Blues 18th man for games 1 and 2 but has missed out on that distinction this time around in favour of Jack Wighton. But he’ll now be available to us in round 17. Great news. And if you’re a “glass half full” type, the Storm have allowed 118 PPG over the past one games. DCE tore them up last week.

Loser: Despite being named to start last weekend, Cam McInnes ($552k / 48 pts / BE 92) was finally supplanted by Dale Finucane ($344k / 39 pts / BE 42). It’s a move we’ve been concerned about for months and it finally happened at the worst possible time. McInnes ended up playing his lowest minutes since round 2 and recorded back to back 48’s against the Titans and Dogs. It’s a worrying trend. Keep an eye on the final team lists this Thursday.

SuperCoach Talk: The way Jack Wighton played in game 1, I was fairly confident that he’d be retained as the NSW utility as the very least. But Freddy has opted to keep him as the reserve and that means SioSifa Talakai ($534k / 54 pts / BE 89) keeps his spot in the side. It’s a blow to all SuperCoaches who have help him this long specifically for this round as we’re now down a man. But the Nicho news is a welcomed trade-off.

Connor Tracey ($515k / BE 37) has been called up to cover Sifa and the Sharks are otherwise unaffected by Origin.

Melbourne Storm

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Dean Ieremia 3. Marion Seve 4. Justin Olam 5. Grant Anderson 6. Nick Meaney 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Brandon Smith 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Chris Lewis 12. Kenny Bromwich 13. Josh King

Bench: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Alec MacDonald 17. Jordan Grant

Reserves: 18. Bronson Garlick 19. Young Tonumaipea 20. Jack Howarth 21. Jayden Nikorima 22. Tyson Smoothy

Changes: Tyran Wishart, Jordan Grant in
Harry Grant, Jayden Nikorima out

Winner: Manly did it again. Up big and clocked off early to allow a comeback attempt. This time they held on for the win so the only thing it affected was a Ryan Papenhuyzen ($931k / 135 pts / BE 106) price drop. Papi was on roughly 30 points with 8 minutes to play and then added another 100 points to close the game. In fact, he scored so well, he actually went up in price. Time to tear the team apart.

Loser: So there was once the thought that anyone playing on the end of the Storm’s backline would be great because of their attacking flair, but Grant Anderson ($225k / 12 pts / BE 33) is trying to be the exception to the rule. Yes the Storm were largely outplayed last weekend but 12 points? C’mon man.

SuperCoach Talk: Out for the Storm is Harry Grant ($621k / 37 pts / BE 96), with the Queensland team obviously. Cameron Munster ($681k / BE 102) is in Origin camp as well, and Felise Kaufusi ($490k / BE 12) is on leave dealing with some family issues but both men were absent last week as well so the Melbourne team hasn’t changed all that much.

Brandon Smith ($354k / 66 pts / BE 29) starts at hooker and Josh King ($386k / 31 pts / BE 64) comes back into the starting 13. Tyran Wishart ($227k / BE 46) and Jordan Grant ($205k) come onto the bench.

Brandon Smith is the fourth most purchased player this week so far, behind teammate Papi, Latrell and Fonua Pole (fifth is Panthers 2RF / CTW Shannon Harris for some reason). I must admit, I toyed with the idea briefly but came to the conclusion that it’s a wasted trade. Prior to last weekend, Cheese was averaging 38.5 PPG, including his 1 point injury game in round 1, and his 107 point return game. Apart from that, he’d scored over 45 points on just two other occasions. Then he had a 66 last week but that was boosted by a try. He’s not scoring well and in my opinion, you’ll regret making the move despite the price.

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS v SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Friday, 7.55pm, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith

Newcastle Knights

1. Tex Hoy 2. Edrick Lee 3. Enari Tuala 4. Bradman Best 5. Dominic Young 6. Anthony Milford 7. Adam Clune 8. David Klemmer 9. Chris Randall 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Kurt Mann

Bench: 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Leo Thompson 17. Mathew Croker

Reserves: 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Pasami Saulo 20. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 21. Hymel Hunt 22. Jake Clifford

Changes: Bradman Best, Jayden Brailey in
Dane Gagai, Simi Sasagi out

Winner: Shout out to Edrick Lee ($483k / 172 pts / BE -59) who just went bananas against the Titans. Five tries to become the Knights all-time single-game record holder and only the 36th man to accomplish the feat. His score and subsequent breakeven mean big price rises in his future and I’m not against the idea of grabbing him for an extra bye round number to ride that out. Just be prepared for a couple lower scores while you have him, but even if he scores 40 against Souths and 40 against Manly (his average pre-Titans), he’ll shoot up to roughly $600k and can almost be straight swapped to a Tedesco type for the run home.

Loser: I don’t know how many serious players have held, but Chris Randall ($430k / 41 pts / BE 53) is still in 22,000 teams and will now share duties with Jayden Brailey ($519k). It’s a big kick in the teeth if you were purely holding for this weeks points.

SuperCoach Talk: The Knights finally managed a win but even as a passionate fan I’ll admit it was more a case of the Titans shooting themselves in the foot rather than Newcastle being the dominant side. Still, a wins a win.

Outside the return of Brailey, the centres are where the big moves are happening for the Knights this week. Dane Gagai ($393k / 44 pts / BE 46) is in Queensland camp but Bradman Best ($457k / BE 40) is finally back after failing to prove his fitness last weekend. He’ll go onto the left flank forcing Enari Tuala ($355k / 56 pts / BE 42) to switch sides.

Kalyn Ponga ($499k / BE 77) is also away for Origin but missed last weeks game as well.

Origin potentials Tyson Frizell ($483k / 48 pts / BE 87), Daniel Saifiti ($374k / 49 pts / BE 70) and Jacob Saifiti ($375k / 31 pts / BE 47) have all missed selection so will be about for this game. Frizell is an interesting one for SuperCoach. He has hit a bit of a slump of late, whether it’s due to injury or just form, but has averaged 65.6 PPG in 80 minute games. If he can stay healthy, he might become a nice pod for a late season charge.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Taane Milne 4. Isaiah Tass 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Siliva Havili 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jed Cartwright 13. Mark Nicholls

Bench: 14. Kodi Nikorima 15. Blake Taaffe 16. Michael Chee Kam 17. Davvy Moale

Reserves: 18. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 19. Ben Lovett 20. Richard Kennar 21. Shaq Mitchell 22. Dean Hawkins

Changes: Taane Milne, Jed Cartwright, Blake Taaffe, Michael Chee-Kam, Davvy Moale in
Damien Cook, Cameron Murray, Campbell Graham, Jai Arrow, Hame Sele out

Winner: I, like so many others, have had Isaiah Tass ($315k / 71 pts / BE 12) clogging up my CTW bench for the past two months but he was brought in for their round 16 win, and better yet, he killed it. He’s perfectly timed his return and I’m happy to have the extra number this week that I wasn’t previously counting on.

Loser: The Rabbitohs and SuperCoaches alike have suffered a major blow with Campbell Graham ($613k / 52 pts / BE 127) fracturing his cheekbone on the weekend. He’ll be missing up to eight games, including this one weekend when so many pundits were relying on him for a crucial bye round number. But it does lock in Tass. Silver linings?

SuperCoach Talk: For a team with only three Origin players, the Bunnies have been stripped bare this week. Along with Graham, Souths will be without Origin trio Damien Cook ($699k / 81 pts / BE 54), Cameron Murray ($583k / 53 pts / BE 58) and Jai Arrow ($471k / 80 pts / BE 26), while Hame Sele ($k / pts / BE ) is out with a strained hammy and remains out as he recovers from that. Mark Nicholls ($338k / 26 pts / BE 14) was concussed last week too so is on watch despite being named. That’s six of last weekend’s side, and Trent Peoples ($175k / BE -49) still can’t get a game.

I know I’ve not been alone in my enduring hopes of a Peoples comeback for this bye round, especially with their Origin and injury outs, but it’s not to be. The kid has been binned to the reserves for the reserves over the past few weeks so has well and truly been put to bed. #binception

Instead, Taane Milne ($413k / BE 45) is back at centre, Saliva Havili ($443k / 29 pts / BE 68) starts at hooker, Jed Cartwright ($205k) is on an edge for his season debut, comes onto the bench for his debut along with Blake Taaffe ($341k / BE 82), Michael Chee-Kam ($349k) and Davvy Moale ($187k / BE 27) all on the bench. However, with Taaffe listed next to Kodi Nikorima ($308k / 6 pts / BE 51), I expect we’ll see some game day shenanigans.

Has Latrell Mitchell ($610k / 99 pts / BE 87) been the Bunnies missing piece all along? He was phenomenal against the Eels and recorded a huge game. His breakeven is still high so he shouldn’t move in price much, but the last three fullbacks to play against the Knights have scored 84 (Brimson), 65 (Savage), and 74 (Edwards). He could have a field day.

He and Alex Johnston ($696k / 111 pts / BE 95) who just reminded the world how dangerous he can be. Plus the Knights already give up 63.53 PPG to left wingers this year.

WESTS TIGERS v PARRAMATTA EELS

Saturday, 7.35pm, 4 Pines Park, Sydney

Wests Tigers

1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To’a 4. Adam Doueihi 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jackson Hastings 8. James Tamou 9. Fa’amanu Brown 10. Zane Musgrove 11. Luke Garner 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Joe Ofahengaue

Bench: 14. Stefano Utoikamanu 15. Justin Matamua 16. Jacob Liddle 17. Fonua Pole

Reserves: 18. Austin Dias 19. Alex Seyfarth 20. Junior Tupou 21. Asu Kepaoa 22. Jock Madden

Changes: James Tamou, Jacob Liddle, Justin Matamua in
James Roberts, Alex Seyfarth, Austin Dias out

Winner: To say I was sceptical of Fonua Pole‘s ($175k / 44 pts) prospects would have been putting it lightly. That’s not to say I thought he’d be a bad player. All reports I’d read on the kid were glowing in their praise. It’s just that it was a debut game and he’d been brought in as the 17th man (according to team lists). But he performed remarkably well, notching up 42 minutes and 37 tackles. He could yet become an AE issue down the track but I’ve seen enough to take a relatively low-risk punt on the kid.

Loser: Looking into the Tigers halves situation from a SuperCoach perspective, Adam Doueihi ($676k / 36 pts / BE 180) scored more points in 48 minutes than either of Luke Brooks ($437k / 32 pts / BE 64) or Jackson Hastings ($370k / 31 pts / BE 38) did in 80 minutes. Not only that, but the Tigers looked better with the ball when Doueihi was steering the ship. I won’t go as far as to say dangerous, but better. And yet, they’ve stuffed him into the centres. He has to be put in charge soon. It’s where he’ll be next season surely.

SuperCoach Talk: A couple of changes for the Tigers side well-beaten last week with James Tamou ($436k / BE 31) back in from injury and Jacob Liddle ($455k / BE 52) onto the bench. Justin Matamua (not in game yet) has also been handed a debut jersey fresh off an outstanding u19 Origin game. Oh, and Doueihi at centre of course.

Those ins see Austin Dias ($175k / 15 pts), James Roberts ($285k / 20 pts / BE 53) and Alex Seyfarth ($262k / 40 pts / BE 22) all dropping out.

The addition of Tamou does add another big minute guy into the middle which could be bad news for not only Pole, but Joe Ofahengaue ($599k / 87 pts / BE 62) as well who’s been tearing it up of late. The man has averaged over 70 from his last eight games. He’s playing a very SuperCoach friendly brand of footy and shaping as a fantastic buy option.

Parramatta Eels

1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Waqa Blake 4. Will Penisini 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Marata Niukore 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson

Bench: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Tom Opacic 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Ky Rodwell

Reserves: 18. Nathan Brown 19. Jakob Arthur 20. Sean Russell 21. Wiremu Greig 22. Hayze Perham

Changes: Ryan Matterson in
Junior Paulo out

Winner: Time to give Shaun Lane ($613k / 72 pts / BE 39) his dues. This guy has been on a tear all season long but is still owned by less than 4% of teams. His 63.5 PPG is 11th best for 2RF’s in SuperCoach, on a list including David Fifita (hurt all year) plus Isaiah Papali’i, Joe Tapine, Siosifa Talakai and Reuben Cotter who can all be played in other positions. For pure 2RF’s, he’s top six on a points per game basis.

Loser: Lane’s backrow partner, Ryan Matterson ($678k / BE 109) has been popular in recent weeks but that stalled in round 16. He’d suffered a rib injury against the Chooks in round 15 and the two week break over rep round wasn’t enough for him to make it to game day last weekend. He’s been named again today and reports suggest he’s likely to play this time but it will be a nervous wait for owners this week.

SuperCoach Talk: Not much of a change to the side that were embarrassed by the Bunnies last week. Matto comes back in while Junior Paulo ($490k / 53 pts / BE 35) is off for Origin. Marata Niukore ($391k / 51 pts / BE 40) shifts into prop and the rest remains the same.

Parramatta have been pretty strong all season so maybe it was just an off night and they’ll click again soon. Or maybe it’s the beginning of the Parramatta yearly downfall. I’ll let you decide.

Trust me to pick the week that Isaiah Papali’i ($650k / 38 pts / BE 110) has his worst SuperCoach game since 2020 and throw the armband on him. I went the “safe” route with the wet weather but then neither Ice or his teammates showed up. Frustrating.

Outside of Ice, there’s not a lot to get excited about for SuperCoach from such a strong NRL side. Dylan Brown ($609k / 58 pts / BE 65) is cruising along at a decent clip. Maika Sivo ($460k / 19 pts / BE 59) absolutely bombed. And Clint Gutherson ($506k / 73 pts / BE 32) took two tries and a linebreak to get his 73 points. It’s pretty dire there at the moment.

BRISBANE BRONCOS v St. GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

Sunday, 4.05pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Brisbane Broncos

1. Tesi Niu 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Brenko Lee 5. Jordan Pereira 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Keenan Palasia 9. Billy Walters 10. Ryan James 11. Zac Hosking 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington

Bench: 14. Cory Paix 15. Rhys Kennedy 16. Xavier Willison 17. Tyson Gamble

Reserves: 18. Delouise Hoeter 19. Jake Turpin 20. Deine Mariner 21. Tyrone Roberts 22. Logan Bayliss-Brow

Changes: Fanitesi Niu, Jordan Pereira, Ryan James, Zac Hosking, Cory Paix, Rhys Kennedy, Xavier Willison, Tyson Gamble in
Payne Haas, Selwyn Cobbo, Patrick Carrigan, Kurt Capewell, Te Maire Martin, Corey Jensen, Jake Turpin, Tom Flegler out

Winner: There’s not much going right for the Bronx at the moment. Everything seems to be heading the other direction. However, if you’re looking for a bye round option, Corey Oates ($544k / 99 pts / BE 16) could come into consideration. The Broncos look for him often, and will probably do so more this week with the team so depleted. He’s in try scoring form again and has a low breakeven so will rise in price the next two weeks, like Edrick Lee, although not as drastically.

Loser: The Broncos are going through a devastating injury crisis at the moment. Their casualty list is currently:

  • Te Maire Martin ($316k / 2 pts / BE 68) – fractured rib cartilage
  • Corey Jensen ($337k / 49 pts / BE 39) – calf strain
  • Brendan Piakura ($189k) – concussion
  • Albert Kelly ($448k / BE 111) – foot
  • TC Robati ($315k / BE -10) – fractured forearm
  • Tyson Gamble ($378k / BE 31) – leg
  • Herbie Farnworth ($557k / BE 20) – torn biceps, and
  • Payne Haas ($482k / 58 pts / BE 55) – you name it, he’s got it

Haas’ latest injury, in particular, hurts as he’s owned by more than 40% of SuperCoach teams but he’ll now miss 2-3 weeks.

SuperCoach Talk: There’s a lot happening for Brisbane this week.

Along with the above mentioned names who are all unavailable this week, you’ve got Selwyn Cobbo ($622k / 77 pts / BE 90), Patrick Carrigan ($564k / 42 pts / BE 95) and Kurt Capewell ($445k / 44 pts / BE 57) all out due to their Origin commitments, as well as Tom Flegler ($451k / 35 pts / BE 77) potentially who could be named as the 18th man.

In some relief for the Broncos, Tesi Niu ($468k / BE 52) is expected to return to fullback in replacing TMM. He’s been out since getting hurt in round 6 against the Panthers. If you can remember back that far, Tesi was destroying the Panthers early on with 48 points in 34 minutes before pulling a hammy. Broncos fans will be hoping he gets back to that form quickly.

Joining Niu on the incoming list are Jordan Pereira ($267k) on the wing, Ryan James ($299k / BE 42) at prop and debutant Zac Hosking (not in game yet) on Capewell’s edge. Cory Paix ($278k / BE 31), who returns two weeks ahead of schedule, is in on the bench along with Tyson Gamble ($378k / BE 31) and Rhys Kennedy ($333k / BE 52). And we get to se Xavier Willison ($205k) for the first time this year.

Unfortunately for us, Ezra Mam ($392k / 36 pts / BE 61) has hit a wall. After starting so strongly, he’s gone and scored back-to-back 36’s and now his breakeven has caught up to his season average. If you’ve got a luxury trade up your sleeve, the argument could be made to move him on this week. Look to Jahrome Hughes at halfback or possibly Papi / Latrell at fullback if you’ve got the duals to make it work. On the other hand, left halves have scored 57.2 PPG against the Dragons this year so I doubt he drops in price too much.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

1. Cody Ramsey 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Jayden Sullivan 8. Jack de Belin 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Jack Bird 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Tariq Sims

Bench: 14. Moses Mbye 15. Francis Molo 16. Aaron Woods 17. Michael Molo

Reserves: 18. Jaiyden Hunt 19. Tautau Moga 20. Josh Kerr 21. Billy Burns 22. Jonathon Reuben

Changes: Jayden Sullivan in
Ben Hunt out

Winner: Two or three weeks back, I half-heartedly suggested that Moses Suli ($507k / 70 pts / BE 42) could be a bye round pick up. In his past three games, he’s scored 82, 60 and 70 points and gone up in price by $40k. I really wish I listened to my own advice sometimes.

Loser: Anyone with Mikaele Ravalawa ($338k / 27 pts / BE 12) will want to make the most of this weekend as he’ll need to be traded after it. He went back to not scoring tries and not scoring SuperCoach points. It could be a tough watch even against this shell of a Broncos side.

SuperCoach Talk: If there’s one bright spot to the Broncos depleted side it’s that they get to face the Dragons without their main playmaker. Ben Hunt ($516k / 35 pts / BE 72) is obviously in Origin camp, so Jayden Sullivan ($322k / BE 64) comes in to the halves to partner Talatau Amone ($412k / 55 pts / BE 40).

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The Beer Whisperer

Great stuff, as usual.

The Duke

Thanks for the write up Semi. Even for a small week, it was chock full of info.

The Duke

That’s not for one moment saying you don’t do an excellent job every week.

The Duke

The way I look at it, you could do a half arsed job and it would still be free but as you do a great job, it’s even better.

Trade-a-holic

Dragons keeping left halves to just 5.2 PPG is phenomenal (some might even say unbelievable).

WeninRome

Awesome article again mate 🙂

sar

Fantastic write up!! One question – anyone willing to rank the best nuffs to add for this week (by best the ones who are most likely to be never seen again after rd 17)

ausmojo

Trust me to pick the week that Isaiah Papali’i ($650k / 38 pts / BE 110) has his worst SuperCoach game since 2020 and throw the armband on him. I went the “safe” route with the wet weather”

I am right there with you. Same reasoning and all. Thanks Ipap

trentmark

Nico Hynes and Toby Rudolf are both confirmed OUTs this week due to COVID