Lakey’s Team Analysis – Round 14

The first of the big bye rounds has come and gone, and not without controversy. Hell, it wouldn’t be a realistic NRL game if there wasn’t right? There were some huge scores across the round with star players doing exactly what we bought them in to do, proving that quality over quantity is the way to go in these condensed rounds. However, scores were initially calculated to include the usual 17 man squads. It has since been corrected though, seeing some post-lockout rankings adjustments.

With that taken care of, attention now turns to round 14. Now, while the teams have all been named, they should be largely treated as indicative only. Origin I is yet to be played so any Origin players named need to make it through Wednesday’s encounter unscathed in order to take their respective places in club games. And then there’s the inevitable withdrawals for rests. It’s these rounds where Stilesy is as pivotal as ever.

This Weeks Bye Team/s

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Newcastle Knights

Parramatta Eels

It’s a real tricky weekend this one. We all loaded up on Eels players because of the big bye week availability, plus with guys like Marzhew, Turbo, Garrick, Schuster etc all being very popular, and now they’re all out this week.

WESTS TIGERS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS

Friday, 8.00pm, Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney

Wests Tigers

1. Jahream Bula 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To’a 4. Tommy Talau 5. Junior Tupou 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. John Bateman 13. Fonua Pole 

Bench:  14. Jake Simpkin 15. Alex Seyfarth 16. Alex Twal 17. Asu Kepaoa 

Reserves: 18. Brent Naden 19. Aistasi James 20. Daine Laurie 21. Justin Matamua 22. Tallyn Da Silva

Teams Analysis:

The Tigers only have Apisai Koroisau ($524.2k – HOK – BE 32) playing in the Origin opener so are very likely to run out as is. However, with just the two day break between games, Api will be on a close watch to see how he pulls up and Jake Simpkin ($200.8k – HOK – BE 42) is waiting in the wings.

Brent Naden ($394k – CTW – BE 67) returns from suspension, but only to the extended reserves because you don’t mess with a winning formula, and Fonua Pole ($417.6k – 2RF/FRF – BE 34) will go back to his role as starting lock with JOfa now moved on to Parramatta.

The Tigers have now had 2 of their byes and their last falls on round 17, the week after Origin 2. So any Westies currently in your squad can be safely help to see you through the rest of the bye period. That’s likely just Jahream Bula ($452.4k – FLB – BE -26) but with his incredible breakeven, he may top out in price over the next couple of weeks and be easily upgradable.

Canberra Raiders

1. Sebastian Kris 2. Nick Cotric 3. Albert Hopoate 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Pasami Saulo 11. Hudson Young 12. Corey Horsburgh 13. Joseph Tapine 

Bench:  14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Matt Frawley 17. Ata Mariota 

Reserves: 18. Hohepa Puru 19. Danny Levi 20. Harley Smith-Shields 21. Xavier Savage 22. Peter Hola

Teams Analysis:

Like the Tigers, it’s just Hudson Young ($639.3k – 2RF – BE 83) to keep an eye on here.

Furthermore, Elliott Whitehead is still out suspended and Corey Harawira-Naera will miss a month due to his scary incident on Saturday night so the forward stocks are mighty thin in the nations capital. On CHN, he’ll be out for the next month at least as he seeks specialist advice and scans but is said to be well and back with his family. All of us here at NRLSCTalk are wishing one of our favourites all the very best.

As such, the forward line will largely remain the same as last week with Corey Horsburgh ($619.6k – FRF/2RF – BE 35) on an edge and Joe Tapine ($615.5k – FRF/2RF – BE 65) at lock. These boys thrived in those positions. Horse scored a try on his way to 99 points while Taps played a season high in minutes and scored a season high in points.

However, the backline is facing a massive shakeup. Seb Kris ($458.7k – CTW/FLB – BE 81) and Jordan Rapana ($507.2k – CTW – BE 75) failed to finish the game with knee and HIA concerns respectively and are now racing the clock for availability here. Jarrod Croker ($425.2k – CTW – BE 37) has been ‘omitted’ because the Raiders want him to play his 300th game at home next weekend. Weird move to be honest.

Nick Cotric ($372.7k – CTW – BE 84) replaces Crokes and Xavier Savage ($485.3k – FLB – BE 58) and Harley Smith-Shields ($272.4k – CTW – BE 47) are on standby for the other two men.

THE WARRIORS vs THE DOLPHINS

Saturday, 3:00pm, Go Media Stadium, Auckland

The Warriors

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Luke Metcalf 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris 

Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Josh Curran 16. Mitchell Barnett 17. Bayley Sironen 

Reserves: 18. Tom Ale 20. Taine Tuaupiki 21. Demitric Sifakula 22. Ronald Volkman 23. Ali Leiataua

Teams Analysis:

It’s a battle of the ‘THE’s’ as THE Warriors take on THE Dolphins on Saturday afternoon in Auckland. And this ‘THE’ will want a big game to make amends for dropping a very winnable game against a depleted Broncos team.

Wayde Egan ($499.1k – HOK – BE 91) is back, taking over for Freddy Lussick who failed his HIA last week and now has to stand down. Also back in Mitch Barnett ($540.7k – 2RF/FRF – BE 71), getting his first game since round 3. He started two games at prop and one on the edge before getting hurt so where he comes on here is up for debate. I can see him rotating through the middle though, FWIW.

Jackson Ford ($497.5k – 2RF – BE 67) can be held through the next couple of weeks, but with the Warriors round 16 bye and Ford both topping out in price and seemingly playing limited minutes (he’s played 80 MPG all year but 50 (HIA) and 66 over the last two games), the time may have come to move on.

The Dolphins

1. Kodi Nikorima 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken 4. Brenko Lee 5. Tesi Niu 6. Anthony Milford 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Herman Ese’ese 11. Kenny Bromwich 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Ray Stone 

Bench:  14. Jarrod Wallace 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Mason Teague 17. Valynce Te Whare 

Reserves: 18. Harrison Graham 19. Max Plath 20. Poasa Faamausili 21. Kurt Donoghoe 22. Oliver Gildart

Teams Analysis:

The Fins have named the same 17 as last week, opting to rest Origin stars Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($509.7k – CTW/FLB – BE 51) and Tom Gilbert ($546.9k – 2RF/FRF – BE 69), Kodi Nikorima ($538.8k – 5/8/HOK – BE 27) at fullback, Anthony Milford ($343.7k – HFB/5/8 – BE 16) in halves, Ray Stone ($349.8k – 2RF/HOK – BE 21) at lock and our suddenly stunted Valynce Te Whare ($200.8k – CTW – BE -35) out of the 17 again.

Seriously, what a kick in the crotch for VTW managers. He was dominant at magic round, immediately dropped again and then named on bench and played 3 minutes for 4 points. He still has a -35 breakeven for when he next plays but when that debut score drops out, that BE could shoot straight up.

GOLD COAST TITANS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Saturday, 5:30pm, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Gold Coast Titans

1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Phillip Sami 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Chris Randall 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Joe Stimson 13. Isaac Liu 

Bench:  14. Sam Verrills 15. Erin Clark 16. Klese Haas 17. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 

Reserves: 18. Kruise Leeming 19. Brian Kelly 20. Jaimin Jolliffe 21. Thomas Mikaele 22. Ken Maumalo

Teams Analysis:

Both David Fifita ($942k – 2RF – BE 70) and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui ($723.7k – 2RF/FRF – BE 51) will run out for Queensland and their availability for the Titans will depend on the workload they are required to shoulder.

The Titans are definitely resting Kieran Foran though, who’s been dealing with a torn ligament in his toe for much of the year. Foran will sit the next two weeks and bye before aiming for a round 17 return. Jayden Campbell ($412k – FLB – BE 39) joins the halves for the time being with Keano Kini ($200.8k – FLB) at fullback.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

1. Blake Taaffe 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Richard Kennar 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 

Bench: 14. Jai Arrow 15. Michael Chee Kam 16. Shaq Mitchell 17. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 

Reserves: 18. Taane Milne 19. Jed Cartwright 20. Peter Mamouzelos 21. Tallis Duncan 22. Dean Hawkins

Teams Analysis:

Souths have got petty this season, going with the “if you’re not going to pick our players, we’re not going to provide them” defence.

Seriously though, last week saw the shock exclusion of Damien Cook ($594.2k – HOK – BE 57) from the NSW team, then the Bunnies withdrew Campbell Graham ($742.8k – CTW – BE 82) from 18th man duties only to name him in their round 13 team. He ended up being withdrawn there due to the injury. And now Latrell Mitchell ($813.6k – FLB – BE 125) has been pulled from Origin with a calf injury.

A big blow with Latrell Mitchell out of Origin 1 with a calf strain – but the silver lining for both Souths & NSW is scans reportedly revealed a minor strain. Most players able to return in a 1-3 week range – would give him some chance to play in Rd 14 & great chance for Origin 2

— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) May 29, 2023

As Physio states, scans have been positive but Trell hasn’t been named to play round 14. This will hurt many who opted to hold the gun due to his potential to back up from Wednesday’s fixture.

And now we wait on the Cam Murray ($527.8k – 2RF – BE 59) news.

CRONULLA-SUTHERLAND SHARKS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS

Saturday 7.35pm, PointsBet Stadium, Sydney

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Royce Hunt 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane 

Bench: 14. Wade Graham 15. Jack Williams 16. Thomas Hazelton 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 

Reserves: 18. Braydon Trindall 19. Connor Tracey 20. Jesse Colquhoun 21. Daniel Atkinson 22. Jayden Berrell

Teams Analysis:

The big watch will be on Nicho Hynes ($863.9k – HFB – BE 104) obviously, but being named as a bench utility should mean limited minutes and a very good chance to back up.

Siosifa Talakai ($643.3k – CTW – BE 5) returns to the centres, having missed a couple of weeks while resting a neck complaint. Connor Tracey was fantastic filling in but now makes way.

The rest of the side hasn’t changed much from when we last saw them.

The Sharks byes (for non Origin players *ahem* Nicho) is fantastic the rest of the way. They’ve already had 2 and their third bye falls on round 17 with the Dogs and Tigers. It’s pretty much all systems go from here making players like Briton Nikora ($709.3k – 2RF – BE 79), Ronaldo Mulitalo ($703k – CTW – BE 102) and potentially Will Kennedy ($702.3k – FLB – BE 64) great buys to see us through difficult periods ahead.

Brisbane Broncos

1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 

Bench:  14. Cory Paix 15. Corey Jensen 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Taupau 

Reserves: 18. Deine Mariner 19. Brendan Piakura 20. Keenan Palasia 21. Xavier Willison 22. Corey Oates 23. Tristan Sailor 24. Jock Madden

Teams Analysis:

The Broncos, and SuperCoaches alike, will be sweating on the health of Payne Haas ($k – FRF – BE ) following Wednesday night. He is playing the first game of the series but was said to have injured his ankle leading up to it and missed a large chunk of NSW camp. With a large workload expected Wednesday, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be ok to back up this week.

In saying that, all of Wednesday’s reps have been named to play as the Bronx put out close to their strongest side. But should any of the Origin boys be unable to front, they’ve got some decent kids to fill in.

Also returning is Corey Oates ($533.3k – CTW – BE 84) on the left wing after missing the better part of three months.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs CANTERBURY BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS

Sunday, 2.00pm, Industree Group Stadium, Gosford

Sydney Roosters

1. James Tedesco 2. Corey Allan 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Billy Smith 5. Junior Pauga 6. Joseph Manu 7. Luke Keary 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Jake Turpin 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Egan Butcher 12. Nat Butcher 13. Sitili Tupouniua 

Bench:  14. Drew Hutchison 15. Nathan Brown 16. Angus Crichton 17. Matthew Lodge 

Reserves: 18. Daniel Tupou 19. Sandon Smith 20. Jaxson Paulo 21. Terrell May 22. Naufahu Whyte

Teams Analysis:

James Tedesco ($588.5k – FLB – BE 39) is expected to back up for the struggling Chookies and they’re getting back a whole host of stars on top of that.

Joey Manu ($639.1k – CTW/5/8 – BE 83) and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves ($428k – FRF – BE 99) have made timely comebacks from various injuries, and Daniel Tupou ($481.5k – CTW – BE 91) is named in the extended as he looks to follow suit. Manu goes back into 5/8 thanks to Sam Walker‘s knee injury keeping him out longer than expected now. That’s if he was going to be recalled from ressies anyway.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

1. Hayze Perham 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Blake Wilson 6. Karl Oloapu 7. Matt Burton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Ryan Sutton 11. Jayden Okunbor 12. Jacob Preston 13. Corey Waddell 

Bench:  14. Josh Reynolds 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Samuel Hughes 17. Harrison Edwards 

Reserves: 19. Khaled Rajab 20. Jackson Topine 21. Josh Addo-Carr 22. Kyle Flanagan 23. Tevita Pangai Junior 24. Jeral Skelton

Teams Analysis:

The Dogs will run out pretty much as they did in round 12, provided Josh Addo-Carr ($504.6k – CTW – BE 125) and Tevita Pangai ($458.2k – FRF/2RF – BE 19) make it though in tact. They’re both in the reserves for now.

Meanwhile, Jacob Kiraz ($486.4k – CTW – BE 52) is dirt cheap now, but also not hitting those same highs he was earlier in the season. But if he turns his form around he’s a steal.

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS vs MELBOURNE STORM

Sunday 4:05pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Nth Queensland Cowboys

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Zac Laybutt 4. Peta Hiku 5. Semi Valemei 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Heilum Luki 13. Jake Granville 

Bench:  14. Jack Gosiewski 15. Jeremiah Nanai 16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 17. Griffin Neame 

Reserves: 18. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 19. Brendan Elliot 20. Jason Taumalolo 21. Ben Hampton 22. Valentine Holmes 23. Reuben Cotter 24. Murray Taulagi

Teams Analysis:

The Queensland boys have all been named to back up on Sunday for this game.

For the Cowboys, Val Holmes ($624.4k – CTW – BE 53) and Murray Tuilagi ($419.8k – CTW – BE 49), and Reuben Cotter ($621.4k – FRF – BE 72) have all been named in the extended reserves with an eye to bring them into the starting side should they get through Origin. Tom Dearden ($509.6k – 5/8 – BE 69) goes into the halves obviously since he’s not actually playing.

And Jason Taumalolo ($491.4k – 2RF – BE 84) has been named there too. Lolo hasn’t been sighted since round 7 in New Zealand, after which he was sent for some surgery on a troublesome knee injury. Originally said to be out for “4-6 weeks”, this week marks the 7th round since that last game so he theoretically should be good to go.

And so will Jeremiah Nanai ($510.5k – 2RF – BE 94) coming back from suspension and with a lot to make up for. He returns on the bench though with Heilum Luki‘s ($585.7k – 2RF – BE 75) form making him hard to drop…..for now.

Melbourne Storm

1. Nick Meaney 2. William Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Josh King 

Bench:  14. Bronson Garlick 15. Aaron Pene 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Grant Anderson 

Reserves: 18. Tyran Wishart 19. Marion Seve 20. Tom Eisenhuth 21. Tariq Sims 22. Kane Bradley

Teams Analysis:

As with the above, the “three” Queensland reps are all expecting to back up however in previous years, Bellamy has taken turns in giving his Origin stars rests. My main concern would be Cam Munster ($747.1k – 5/8 – BE 114) who’s already carrying a shoulder issue into the Origin arena. He’s a tough kid but it might be asking too much.

The only other worry is Eli Katoa ($523.5k – 2RF – BE 3) with his own shoulder concerns picked up in the Storms last outing.

PENRITH PANTHERS vs St. GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

Sunday, 6.15pm, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith

Penrith Panthers

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Tyrone Peachey 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Zac Hosking 13. Isaah Yeo 

Bench:  14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Martin 17. Jaeman Salmon 

Reserves: 18. Jack Cogger 19. Luke Garner 20. Thomas Jenkins 21. Matt Eisenhuth 22. Liam Henry 23. Izack Tago 24. Spencer Leniu

Teams Analysis:

The Panthers head into Origin I with six players representing NSW and you’d have to think that will effect the team on Sunday night.

Penrith have named the whole contingent of Nathan Cleary ($892.5k – HFB – BE 75), Jarome Luai ($601.1k – 5/8 – BE -19), Brian To’o ($619.5k – CTW – BE 84), Isaah Yeo ($667.6k – 2RF – BE 65), Liam Martin ($443.4k – 2RF – BE 58) and now Stephen Crichton (553.7$k – CTW/FLB – BE 91), who Bradbury’d his way into the side thanks to the withdrawals of both Campbell Graham and then Latrell.

Izack Tago ($664.2k – CTW – BE 134) has been named in the extended reserves as he begins his return from a partially torn pec. If he’s promoted on game day, that means Tyrone Peachey‘s ($452.3k – CTW – BE 13) time in the top 13 is at an end for now and he can be moved on. For the mathematically challenged out there, it’s only $34.1k from Peach to Kiraz.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Michael Molo 11. Billy Burns 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin 

Bench:  14. Jayden Sullivan 15. Ben Murdoch-Masila 16. Jaiyden Hunt 17. Josh Kerr 

Reserves: 18. Moses Mbye 19. Toby Couchman 20. Zane Musgrove 21. Max Feagai 22. Tautau Moga

Teams Analysis:

With only Ben Hunt ($629.3$k – HFB – BE 31) among the Origin reps for the Dragons, and a four day break between games, it means there should be little concerns heading into this clash. They should run out as named above.

Jaydn Su’A ($575.5k – 2RF – BE 33) is back in on an edge, in an almost straight swap for Jack Bird who’s had to be rested the next couple of weeks as he nurses a persistent knee injury. With 3RA’s of 54.3 PPG and 62.3 MPG, and now a two week break, it’s as good a time as any to sell him.