Lakey’s Captains – Round 2
The team at NRLSCTalk are continuing to support Movember throughout the 2021 season and beyond. You can too at www.movember.com.au. If you, or someone you know, are struggling with your mental health, please reach out for help.
The footy is back and we were well and truly spoiled with some great NRL games and SuperCoach scores. The Thursday night season opener was exactly the game I was hoping to watch after such a long off-season.
I stated last week that first round rust and jitters have caused lower than usual SC numbers in recent seasons. From 2018-2020, there we seven SuperCoach tons delivered in the combined 24 round 1 games. This year? Ten! It started strong with Papenhuyzen and Latrell putting on a show in game 1, and was capped off by none other than Mr. Tedesco’s 162 on Saturday afternoon.
Were the higher scores due to the favourable opposition matchups? Is it because of the new rules and speed of the game? Is it the shoes? We’ll find out in round 2.
Disclaimer: The following is not a science by any means. Nothing written below is gospel. The final decision is up to you.
VICE CAPTAIN
PSA: Before considering any potential VC selections, be aware that a fullback VC rules out a Teddy loop.
BEST
Nathan Cleary – Round 1 Score – 103 – 2020 Position Average – 62.30
I am the first person to dismiss Mitchell Pearce’s SuperCoach credentials. He’s certainly the guiding half of the Knights but as far as his SC scoring goes, his best days are well behind him. But why have I started this Cleary section by talking about Pearce? Because he just dropped 80 points playing as the right side half against the Bulldogs, in the pouring rain. Cleary this week plays as the right side half against the Bulldogs, more than likely in the pouring rain.
Cleary was outstanding in week one, guiding his team to a shut out win and posting a ton while doing so. It was a classic Cleary masterclass. He registered two try assists, a linebreak and linebreak assist, four of five goals and a 40/20. To my eye, the Cowboys and Dogs have similar standard of rosters at the moment so it’s not too difficult to imagine a similar output from Cleary this week.
Although, the Bulldogs have had success against Cleary in the past, limiting him to scores of 54, 34, 13 (40 minute injury game), 42 and then a 106 way back in 2017. I doubt he goes under 60 again though. Jump on if you can.
NEXT
Ryan Papenhuyzen – Round 1 Score – 124 – 2020 Position Average – 47.10
I know that leading into round 1, many SuperCoaches were saying that the Teddy/Papy combo was too vanilla. That they were going with a PoD option to get a jump on the field in the position. One week into the competition sees Teddy and Papy sitting at 1 and 2 in the fullback rankings. Admittedly, not by much but still. Sometimes vanilla just works. It is another tough match for Papy and the Storm though so things could definitely change a week from now.
However, Papenhuyzen has had ZERO issues destroying the Eels in his very short career. His first outing saw him put 119 on them from just 31 minutes off the bench. That is not a typo. It truly was a Magic Round. Last year as a fully fledged starter, Papy scored 73 in round 15, and then went on to completely WHOOP them in week one of the finals with 136 points. Hmmm, maybe I’ve got my best of the week the wrong way around.
For complete transparency, Isaako is also a goal kicking fullback who played the Eels in round 1 and he had just 42 points. But similarly to the comparison above, it is no comparison. Throw that out. Papy could make the non-managers look very silly once more.
LONG SHOT
David Fifita – Round 1 Score – 60 – 2020 Position Average – 58.50
Why is this a long shot? Primarily because forwards don’t go so super large as often as the backs, but David Fifita definitely has that opportunity this week in the South Queensland derby. I mean, this guy has been playing in the NRL for just three years, two years as a larger part of the squad, and he already has scores of 121, 116 and 94 plus numerous 70’s and 80’s. He can go big.
He’s never played against the Broncos (obviously), but they allowed 58.5 PPG to left side 2RF’s a season ago, the third highest clip for the position. And then Matto, in a new position for him, posted 67 in that spot last weekend. So they are still vulnerable there.
It’s been spoken about a bit this week but Fifita wasn’t 100% against the Warriors. He had spent two days in hospital in the lead up to the game having an ankle infection tended to. He still came out and scored 60 points while playing 70 minutes. But the main temptation for me is the grudge match factor. Coming up against his old club for the first time, and the comments made from Broncos management this week will give him an added fire to really stick it to them. I’m all in.
I’ve gone for Fifita over Brimson in this game somewhat due to the Teddy loop factor, but for those who are wondering: AJB scored 64 in a well beaten side last week, and Gutho had 75 against the Broncos, which continues Brisbane’s fullback woes of 2020 when they allowed 75.35 PPG.
CAPTAIN
BEST
Addin Fonua-Blake – Round 1 Score – 65 – 2020 Position Average – 54.42
This one is for those going the VC on Thursday night, as the Warriors front up for the first game on Friday. AFB was a great POD play to start the year appearing in just 7% as SuperCoaches looked elsewhere for their premier front rowers. He got overlooked due to his price, those around him and him going to a new team. But he said prior to round 1 that he and the Warriors were going to kick down the front door this year, and he’s also doing precisely that to our SuperCoach calculations.
AFB played 57 minutes in a hot Saturday afternoon on the Central Coast for round 1, and he’ll want to put up a big performance coming up against the Knights big pigs who had massive games themselves. Playing the Knights while with Manly, AFB scored 52, 48 and 70 after becoming the main enforcer. He’ll look to lead his new side on Friday evening with a big minute game and at his high PPM rate, will net you a nice safe captains knock.
NEXT
Paul Vaughan – Round 1 Score – 73 – 2020 Position Average – 63.40
Is this a throw back to 2017 Paul Vaughan, who started at a cut price before exploding into elite prop territory? 73 points in a beaten side, with next to no attacking stats, is a mammoth effort from the front rower. He did have a linebreak in the game, but produced 65 Base+Power points in his 56 minutes on the field. Vaughan may be one we’ve missed out on. He had an average of 50 MPG through 2020, so has thus far increased that albeit from a single game. But if that’s the minutes range he’s going to be seeing regularly, he’s going to be a great player with his 1.15 PPM and nose for the try line.
This week, the Dragons face North Queensland who gave up the most points to starting front rowers last season. No other team gave up over 60 PPG to opposing bookends, but the Cowboys cleared it comfortably. Meanwhile, JFH scored 61 points in a canter last weekend and even though Moses Leota had just 37, he did that in 33 minutes. So, it seems like that trend up the middle has continued. Vaughan never played the Cowboys last year, but in 2019 he had two games of 62 each, from 62 minutes and then 47 minutes.
LONG SHOT
Jai Arrow – Round 1 Score – 70 – 2020 Position Average – 58.18
Kudos for you if you started the year with Jai Arrow. You’re a braver man than me. Once named on the bench, I couldn’t bring myself to look in his direction. But then he played a starring role and helped the Bunnies climb back into the game. His score of 70 points was made up entirely of Base+Power stats. It’s impressive in its own right, but when you factor in that he did it with a PPM of 1.56 it becomes incredible.
But that’s the problem. Arrow played just 45 minutes in this game and while he was huge while on the field, you want someone of his ilk to be playing a little bit more before trusting them here. He’ll also be running out against the Eagles so may not be required for as much of the heavy lifting that he did last weekend. But then again, he may get his attacking game going. He’s the very definition of a long shot and has become a firm watch for me, but he’ll be right in calculations the moment he earns that starting spot. It shouldn’t be too long.
CAPTAIN RISKY
BEST
Cody Walker – Round 1 Score – 82 – 2020 Position Average – 59.20
For all of you Cody Walker managers this week. Bravo. Enjoy this. Coming up against the same team who had 44 put on them in round 1 while Cody was casually scoring 82 on the hardest SuperCoach side. That’s a tasty proposition. If I had him, I’d be very tempted to straight C him over the main man.
We’ve seen his ceiling (#1 all-time), and we’ve seen what Manly are like this year already. Manly also allowed a top four clip to left halves in 2020, at almost 60 PPG. But Walker wasn’t one of the better ones. My one and only concern for Cody is his history on Manly. His one good score on them came in 2017. He had 117. Other than that, he’s scored 65, 65, 25, 63, 64, 50 and 50, the latter being from their only matchup of 2020. It’s not great but that was before Manly was the hot mess they are at the moment. Does anyone at all give them a realistic chance to be in this game? To be honest, both Walker and Latrell could push Teddy’s season high score already.
NEXT
Mitch Barnett – Round 1 Score – 105 – 2020 Position Average – 56.1
Let me preface this by saying that I do not expect another ton from Barnett this week against the Warriors. The Knights put up a score on the Dogs with Barnett scoring a try and many goal kicks. What I do expect, is for Barnett to have another big workrate and post a solid Base+Power score, which gets bumped up by whatever goals he kicks again this week.
In recent years. Barnett has struggled with the Kiwi side. His last four games on them have all been in the 40’s. That’s going back to 2018. In 2017 he had 116 and 79, but that’s a lifetime ago. You can’t put as much faith in those older games against a different team.
But, Barnett showed last week his attacking upside, his ability to work, and an absolute dead-eye with the goal kicking. That’s the main thing giving me confidence in a solid score once more. Whatever he does, expect to add 10-16 points on to that for points kicked.
LONG SHOT
Kurt Capewell – Round 1 Score – 68 – 2020 Position Average – 66.40
Let me explain before you accuse me of chasing last week’s points. Yes, his score was boosted by his try and subsequent linebreak assist, but he also had a Base+Power output of 46 points, which is a really good foundation to build a big score from. And he did that playing just 67 minutes against the Cowboys. Although, I honestly can’t tell you whether that’s because of the game flow, the knock he copped to his ribs or it’s the standard rotation Cleary Snr has in mind this year. And that’s a genuine worry.
Nor can you safely assume that this week’s game against the Bulldogs will be a closer affair. The Knights put them to the sword in a very wet round 1 encounter. However, it was a game where Tyson Frizell scored 78 playing on that right edge. The same one KC will be running at and the same edge that allowed over 65 PPG throughout the 2020 season. Capewell can be anything this year while playing alongside Cleary, and there’s a very good chance he follows up on round 1’s game with a similar score.
AVOID
WORST
David Nofoaluma – Round 1 Score – 59 – 2020 Position Average – 32.05
Nofo’s managers must be thinking “Alright already. Enough of the Nofo hate”. But after suggesting you avoid the superstar last week, he returned a meagre 59 point game, with a try. It was a very afternoon for all the Tigers as Canberra dominated the game from kickoff. Nofo also spent some time watching the back of James Roberts run across field. That doesn’t help when you’re wanting the ball in his hands.
So it’s for that and the second straight brutal matchup that I’d be avoiding Nofo at all costs. Not only did the Chooks limit ride side wingers to 32 PPG last year, but they also started that way again by keeping Jason Saab to a score of 11. I know. I know. He’s not the same calibre as Nofo, but the Tiger hate playing the Chooks as well. His last six scores on them (from 2016) have been 76, 36, 34, 21, 46 and 68. Very limited scoring across a wide range. And I’m sure SuperCoaches will be unhappy with his score once again.
NEXT
Clint Gutherson – Round 1 Score – 75 – 2020 Position Average – 56.80
I spoke last week about Gutho and the Eels great start to the season, but this isn’t one of those weeks. Usually, it wouldn’t be much of a concern but with the early game some of Gutho’s managers may be tempted with the VC. But don’t. Even with the Latrell 117 from last weekend, just don’t.
The Storm were awful to play against across the board in 2020 and while fullbacks had the most success of any position, they still didn’t make it to 60 PPG. It was the 6th worst clip in the position, which proves two things. 1) you don’t want your fantasy players facing the Storm, and 2) fullbacks are worth their weight in gold. We need more than two spots for them. But I digress. Gutho dropped a 65 on Melbourne in their only regular season match last year, and a 62 in week one of the finals. The two games before that he’d had 53 and 10 (magic round 2019).
LONG SHOT
Josh Papalii – Round 1 Score – 33 – 2020 Position Average – 56.42
The score last week was affected by the sin-binning, but even if you add the 8 points from that back in he just cracks 40. Papalii has a history of starting the year a bit slower but that’s bad even by those standards. The simple fact is that he wasn’t need to do much against the Tigers. The Raiders cruised through that game with their starting middle forwards playing just 48 (Papalii), 18 (Lui) and 42 (Tapine) minutes.
Next up is the Sharks, so it could be a similar outcome. Cronulla looked very good in their round 1 matchup, but against the Dragons. This is a drastic step up in weight class and much tougher going for the Northies boys, especially after 1000 beers. So if the game gets quickly out of hand once again, Papalii won’t be required to do much more than he did last week.
This is a story about an ordinary man…
When he was made, they found something wrong with him…
And threw him away like a piece of rubbish into an old dark storeroom…
Then, from inner Sydney, a wealthy man, brought him to life with his magic sombrero!
He took him to Bondi Beach where the SuperCoach Gods gave him special powers…
That man became…..
Final Thoughts & The People’s Team Captain
We’re expecting to see a very wet weekend both north and south of the border (ha) so keep that in mind with any major decisions you’re making this week. That being said, it’s still going to be awfully hard to bypass Tedesco for the captaincy following what he did last weekend. I guess the only question is, who to VC. I really like the potential grudge match for David Fifita. I’m hoping for one of his blowout games which may make my captain choice irrelevant anyway.
Now with that analysis over, it’s time for you to have your say on who should be the VC and C in Round 1 for the people’s team.
Vote here for the VC and vote here for the Captain.
Live results below.
And as always, you can ask me any follow-ups in the comments below, or even hit me up on twitter @dlake631, and hopefully I’ll be able to help some more. Good luck for the round ahead.
Thanks Lakey!
Great insight as always the rain had me frightened, but you’ve set me straight again!
Rain is a concern but it looks like 7 of the 8 games will be affected by weather this weekend (Dragons v Cowboys the exception). So we’ll all be in the same boat.
Captain Cleary (V Bulldogs) or Tedesco (V Wests) is the conundrum. And then there’s the rain to complicate things.
Think the rain will hit both games. Could always go safe with a forward if concerned.
Boring but will be VC Cleary and C teddy
Popular combo this week
I’m all over Fifita as VC. Go son!
Love it. Everything points to a massive night for him.
Cheers mate. Will VC Cleary and captain Teddy. Set and forget for captain choice this year
Agreed. Until proven otherwise.
I brought walker for this reason , knowing manly’s history without turbo tom
I predicted tedesco against manly would rip their heads off
and watching walker in shield scared me .
watch this week for walker to outscore tedesco
rain hail or shine
It wouldn’t surprise me at all. Manly are shot right now and the confidence must be the same. Cody never lacks confidence.
VC Matterson and C Teddy.
My wife is a mad Eels fan so I need something to cheer for tonight so she thinks I’m supporting them lol.
But seriously Matto did put 115 on the storm last year without a meat pie.
I’m getting the Fifita vibes too. Straight c for me. Would’ve gone Cleary or teddy, but hoping the weather brings a pod option into play.