Lakey’s Captains – Round 1
It’s been a monster off-season for the boys here at NRLSCTalk. The Mega Guide took up a lot of time throughout our Summers but we’ve had a very positive response and raised a good chunk of money towards Movember. Thank you to all involved.
TLT for round 1 is always a hugely anticipated afternoon. And luckily for us, there were few surprises as the teams dropped. Now, with season kick off a few short hours away, we can switch our focus to locking in teams and picking the right captain. That’s where I come in.
If you’re a regular, welcome back. It’s good to see you again. For the newbies, below you’ll find a few suggestions for VC and Captaincy options throughout the weekend, as well as one or two guys I wouldn’t trust for the week. These decisions are primarily based on stats; a players past stats against their upcoming opponent, the amount of points that team allows to the position every week (P2P), their form, and a little bit of gut feel.
Disclaimer: it is not a science by any means. Nothing written below is gospel. The final decision is up to you.
VICE CAPTAIN
BEST
Clint Gutherson – 2020 Average – 69.7 – 2020 Position Average – 75.4
Gutho is firming in my mind as a very strong pod to start the year. In the opening couple of months, the only (at this stage) contenders that the Eels play against are the Storm and Raiders while also meeting the Sharks, Tigers, Dragons, Dogs and the Broncos (twice).
Better yet, he opens his 2021 campaign against Brisbane, a team who he had scores of 124 and 114 on a year ago. It makes a lot of sense too. The Broncos were the worst team in the comp last year in both real terms (lol) and in defending against fullbacks. I mean, the Dogs let Teddy score 199 on them and still finished with a lower rate of fullback points against. That’s incredible.
But let’s say, hypothetically, you VC someone on Thursday or even in the earlier Friday game, I have zero issues with anyone throwing the main armband straight on this man. It’s a big balls play but he could be the player of the round.
NEXT
A.J. Brimson – 2020 Average – 73.6 – 2020 Position Average – 61.2
It’s sneaking into the weekend a little bit being the first game of Super Saturday, but AJ stands out as a very tempting play for a VC shot. While the Warriors started playing some really good footy towards the back end of last year, no one finished the season in better form than the Titans. Things started clicking across the park and the man who stole the spotlight was AJ Brimson.
In better news, the Titans have had a big recruitment drive heading into season 2021. As far as captaincy goes, it’s made me a little wary of most of the Titans boys (Tino, Fifita) as the team works their way into forming the right chemistry early on. But what I do like is the AJB was tearing up sides last year with a patchwork forward pack and now gets to play behind one of the most promising packs in the competition.
Brimson didn’t play the Warriors last year, but early on in his career he’s had scores of 61, 12 (29 mins) and 99 on them. So, if you’ve zigged on AJ where everyone else has zagged with Teddy and Papy, you may as well commit with a VC shot.
PSA: Before deciding anything on the above mentioned VC selections, please be aware that it rules out a Teddy loop. Just FYI.
LONG SHOT
Connor Watson – 2020 Average – 36.2 – 2020 Position Average – 66.4
This is the part where I’m really missing Kalyn Ponga, even before a ball has been kicked. The Dogs went through the 2020 season allowing fullbacks to score at a whopping 72.4 PPG. Unfortunately, I don’t have the same confidence in Tex Hoy to continue the trend.
But if you’re wanting to target this game for the double shot, Connor Watson presents as an interesting option. He’s in just about everyone’s team as a sub-$300k FE/CTW, and has the added bonus of being named in the starting #13. He’ll be involved in plenty of work through the middle which would bump up his base+power stats compared to his stints in the halves, and he also adds his potent running game. In his two healthy Knights seasons (2018/19) Watson had 11 tries and 21 linebreaks playing primarily as a running half or hooker. And in those two seasons, Watson had scores of 74, 24 and 108 on the Doggies.
Now he’s going to be a “ball-playing” lock. Yes, he can facilitate, but he loves a scoot and is in a spot which allows more of it. The Dogs allowed over 60 PPG to locks throughout 2020, with seven scores over 80 points from their 20 outings.
CAPTAIN
BEST
Angus Crichton – 2020 Average – 75.7 – 2020 Position Average – 51.0
Angus starts this year as the most expensive and highest averaging (healthy) 2RF. It’s quite the feat considering he started last season battling for the starting spot with Aubusson and Cordner. He quickly overtook the former though and at $550k, became a cut priced must-have. And one that I missed out on.
I won’t make that mistake again though and am locking him in from the get-go. In 2020, 2RF’s playing on the left against Manly scored at a clip of 51 PPG. It was a similar stat on the right side with guys going at 50.5 PPG. I give you both as Gus has been talked about as playing on the left, but he was on the right last season. Either way, it’s much of a muchness. Gus had a 67 on them last season but I just feel like this is a bloodbath this weekend and Gus has a high chance of crashing over for a meatie running at either Gosiewski or Sironen.
NEXT
Ryan Matterson – 2020 Average – 75.2 – 2020 Position Average – 58.0
Yep the two big boys in the second row get the nod in week 1. For SuperCoaches, it’s going to be extremely difficult to head into the 2021 season without one of these guys. And virtually impossible to start without either of them. With the exclusion of McInnes due to his knee injury, Matto and Gus were the top two scoring second rowers on a per game basis, both topping 75 PPG. And for this reason, they’re two of the most sure-fire captain options each weekend.
Similarly to Gutho above, Matto destroyed the reigning wooden spooners a year ago. In the home and away season, Matto scored 99 and 67. He doesn’t have the ceiling that the backs do (and it’s not far off), but his floor is much, much safer. The only concern is how Matto goes with this potential edge swap that’s been floated through the preseason, but it seems where he goes, Moses follows and we saw how Moses loves to give Matto some early ball.
LONG SHOT
David Klemmer – 2020 Average – 66.8 – 2020 Position Average – 58.8
There’s something to be said for having a nice safe 65-70 locked in early in the year. Sure, you may miss out on a backs mammoth game, but you could just as easily avoid a bombed game. For instance, the biggest score in round 1 last year was Nofo’s 109 and he was the only man to crack triple figures. In 2019, four guys hit that mark, being Robbie Farah (110), Corey Oates (108), James Tamou (106) and then the only one of any real SC significance, Cam Munster (105). In 2018 it was just Gareth Widdop (106) and Munster again (101). Point is, I’m not sure you’ll miss out all that badly by going the safe route.
Now sure, Klemmer plays in that second game of the round/season but if you want to just lock away to decent score early, he’s a pretty safe way to go about it. Since his move away from the Dogs, the Knights big man has games of 102 and 71 against them, almost to show them what they’re now missing out on. He has back to back years scoring mid 60’s and I can’t see 2021 being any different. It may be boring, but it’s better than being wrong.
CAPTAIN RISKY
BEST
Nathan Cleary – 2020 Average – 82.9 – 2020 Position Average – 62.0
Jahrome Luai – 2020 Average – 62.3 – 2020 Position Average – 64.2
I honestly couldn’t split them. Both guys are top of the halves choices in week 1 thanks to a very favourable matchup with the Cowboys. It didn’t matter where you attacked them last year. North Queensland had swinging saloon doors all over the field. They allowed the most points to left halves (Luai) and 2nd most to right halves (Cleary) only behind the Broncos.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Luai put scores of 82 and 61 on them in his only two career games against the club, while Cleary whooped them with a 112. On top of that, Cleary has met them three times previously for scores of 37, 89 and 76. I won’t go too much further into. If you’ve got these guys, seriously consider it.
NEXT
Jack Wighton – 2020 Average – 58.3 – 2020 Position Average – 60.0
The thing I noticed when I first looked is that there seemed to be a lot of very obvious, one-sided games across the weekend, and therefore a lot of very obvious captaincy targets. But a guy that isn’t often considered in SuperCoach circles is the reigning Dally M medallist.
Wighton had a career year in 2020 and the new rules of the game seemed to really suit his play style. He had two tons and two nineties across the season which goes to show his ability to go large. Looking closer, it also confirms his status as a flat-track bully. Those four games were against the Titans (twice), Bulldogs and Dragons so when the Raiders are well on the front foot, he’s sure to feature heavily. The Tigers could become the next victim of this trend. Wighton had 64 on them last season and previous scores of 32, 39, 94, 78, 40 and 60.
What’s more, the Tigers are heading into this year with a very new look side. Jacob Liddle, Daine Laurie, Moses Mbye at half, an all-new front row etc. The team may have some minor teething issues in the short term, in which case Wighton is sure to cash in.
LONG SHOT
Matt Dufty – 2020 Average – 65.0 – 2020 Position Average – 67.6
So, no one in their right mind has started the year with Dufty right? Over the likes of Teddy, Papenhuyzen, Gutherson and Latrell? I wouldn’t think so. But here’s a round 1 hot take: Dufty could finish round 1 with the best score of the lot.
Hear me out. We saw a glimpse of Dufty’s game breaking ability in the Charity Shield when the Bunnies were putting his team to the sword. It doesn’t take much for him to find a gap and burst through. He also has a really good pass to the wingers close to the line. So, going from that matchup to one with the calibre of the Sharks should have any investors licking their lips.
Cronulla allowed 67 PPG to fullbacks in 2020 and two of those games were against Dufty, who punished them for 120 and 90 points. He was dominant. But like I said, surely no one has him. Not in classic anyway. One for the draft players.
AVOID
WORST
Jason Taumalolo – 2020 Average – 72.4 – 2020 Position Average – 62.3
When I first started going through my list of potential captains, I was a bit taken aback by how many names I could slot into this avoid section. In some cases, almost entire teams could feature. But no one name stuck out to me as much as Jason Taumalolo.
Before the hater speak starts, consider these reasons. The Cowboys weren’t a powerhouse club in 2020, even with Lolo playing 65 MPG and trying to carry the club on his huge shoulders. So, in order to keep the big man from burning out over the remaining seven years of hi contract and help the club, Todd Payten has decided that it’s best to cut his game time. The coach has said that “He has been averaging over 60 minutes a game the last few seasons and if possible, we will cut his game time a little.” This may be good for the Cowboys in the long run, but it sucks for us. Does no one think of SuperCoaches any more? For what it’s worth, Lolo has also embraced the idea.
“It doesn’t bother me, but I can go harder for shorter minutes and I’m happy with that. A bit more explosiveness rather than drag it out and save myself.”
Jason Taumalolo on his minutes reduction.
And despite the narrative of less is more for Taumalolo there’s a drastic change in his scoring when playing under 60 MPG. Over the past three seasons, he’s gone at 56.2 PPG from 22 games when playing under 60 minutes. Compared to a rate of 79.9 PPG (34 games) when playing over 60. The discrepancy actually surprised me a bit.
On top of that, their week 1 opponents are last years minor premiers and grand finalists the Penrith Panthers. They allowed just over 60 PPG to opposing locks a year ago, including keeping Lolo to 60 and 37 in their two meetings.
NEXT
David Nofoaluma – 2020 Average – 75.7 – 2020 Position Average – 40.8
I’m putting my stones on the line in week 1, with two of the very best in the game being my top 2 avoids. I mentioned earlier how Nofo was the only person to bag a ton in round 1 last year. It got SuperCoaches who started with him off to a flyer and led to a career year for the Tigers marquee man. A bit has changed since then. Playing inside him now is James Roberts who loves a run. Not that he’d be any worse than BJ Leilua when it comes to holding the ball but it’s a new combination, along with having Mbye in the halves so it all may take a bit to get going.
He’s also playing a Raiders side who last year really kept right wingers quiet, at just a touch over 40 PPG. Nofo dominated everyone in 2020 having only three games under 50 points but one of those games were against the Raiders in week 5. In fact, going all the way back to 2016, Nofo’s has a mediocre history against the Green Machine with scores of 74, 35, 70, 43, 26 and 29 to add to last year’s 49.
GAME 1
Melbourne Storm v South Sydney Rabbitohs, AAMI Park, Melbourne
You might have read through this piece and wondered where are all the Storm and Bunny VC options are. Because there are plenty of them. Game 1 of the 2021 season features some of the biggest names in the game; Papy, Munster, Cook, Walker, Mitchell, Murray. I would not begrudge anyone picking out one of those names to throw an early VC on.
However, as I do every year in the first round of the season, I will be avoiding this game for no other reason than I want to sit down with a beer(s) and enjoy having the NRL back on my TV. I’ll definitely have a few players from the game in my team, but I’d prefer not to have the added stress of any captaincy on the line. Just bring on the footy I say.
I can just about hear the screams of “WHERE THE F*** IS TEDDY?”. I didn’t forget him. I’m not stupid. He just had such a ridiculous season that I’m dedicating him his own section, until he proves he doesn’t deserve it. It won’t be overly in depth, but just a quick hit to what Teddy has done before and what he’s up against. So without further adue….
Final Thoughts & The People’s Team Captain
Damn, it’s good to be back.
Now with that analysis over, it’s time for you to have your say on who should be the VC and C in Round 1 for the people’s team.
Vote here for the VC and vote here for the Captain.
Live results below.
And as always, you can ask me any follow-ups in the comments below, or even hit me up on twitter @dlake631, and hopefully I’ll be able to help some more. Good luck for the round ahead.
