Player Transfer Analysis – Josh McGuire

Just in case you’ve been living under a rock, Josh McGuire is now a Cowboy. It came initially as a shock, but it now feels like a distant memory given the influx of player transfers in the NRL over the past few weeks.

In the second of our player transfer series, Wilfred Zee and JT have cast their eyes over the potential SuperCoach winners following the Queensland representative forward’s shift north.

But first, how do we assess the transfer for the man himself?

McGuire has been a base stat monster for years, demonstrating a willingness to get his hands dirty, whether that’s a tough carry coming out of his own end of the field, or a handful of his opponent’s (ridiculous-looking) hair. He has consistently commanded big minutes in the Broncos pack, averaging 59, 51, 58 and 59 minutes from 2014 to 2017 respectively, and registering average SuperCoach scores of 60, 57, 58 and 60 in that time. In line with these minutes and scores, he scored at a respectable 1.02, 1.12, 1.01 and 1.01 PPM across the four seasons as well.

You knew what you were getting from him, basically. However, 2018 brought with it a spike in minutes (for a career-high average of 66 MPG) but also a drastic drop in his PPM (down to 0.77) and a disappointing 51 points per game for the season. This could partially be explained due to several games where he was used at hooker given mid-game injuries to Macca throughout the year, but also some Bennett specials where he would start the game for 20-30 minutes at hooker before moving into his usual role in the middle for the remainder of the game.

It’s not unthinkable that one of the major reasons for McGuire’s appetite for a switch was driven by the inconsistent role that he played for the Broncos week-in-week-out. In fact, reports of late have quoted McGuire stating that he is really happy to being playing in a stable environment going forward… With this being said, it’s hard to see the SuperCoach upside for McGuire in 2019 with Jason Taumalolo sure to command significant minutes at lock and then a plethora of representative forwards in the pack already.

WINNERS

Tevita Pangai Jnr

Freshly re-signed for the 2019 season, TPJ was never going to leave the Broncos to follow Wayne Bennett, despite the ongoing rumours. With McGuire’s departure, he looms as the frontrunner to replace him in the #13 given the fact he started there in the games where McGuire started at #9 or missed the game entirely (that is, when TPJ was healthy too). However, Joe O was also a candidate to start in the #13 and in fact did so in Round 25 when McGuire was a late swap to the starting hooker position, and TPJ was required to play on the left edge in lieu of an injured Alex Glenn.

In any event, more minutes are on offer for the PPM beast and while he lacks the motor (for now) to play the type of minutes McGuire could at lock, a season-long PPM of 1.05 (in spite of plenty of minutes spent on an edge) means TPJ is going to be undervalued if he increases his MPG from the 50 he played in 2018.

Rookie / Cheap Cowboy Front Row Forwards

Another Origin forward into the mix for the Cowboys (with McGuire joining the likes of Matt Scott (?), Coen Hess, Gavin Cooper and Jordan McLean) will open up a starting spot during representative rounds for a potential short term cow / nuff.

Payne Haas / David Fifita

The easy suggestion would have been to look at Matt Lodge and Joe O as the other benefactors of the McGuire move (given the extra 60ish minutes per week on offer which will be divided amongst the middle forwards) but the two of them actually benefited a lot in 2018 already, so there is limited additional value to be gained.

Rather, I believe in the future of these two teenage superstars-in-waiting. The Broncos rarely commit long term to forwards – especially such young ones – but the promise, maturity and commitment to defence and the “one-percenters” shown by these two despite their inexperience was seriously impressive.

Haas’ debut season was cut short due to injury, but Seibold showed a willingness to give more minutes to a rookie (Junior Tatola) who was outperforming some of his more experienced teammates (Mark Nicholls, Jason Clark) so another strong preseason from Haas and his talent and natural physical attributes could see him breakout similarly to how Matt Lodge did in 2018 (SuperCoach-wise at least, if not also in terms of on-field performance).

Fifita might be in the less favourable situation given he is an edge backrower who also has to contend with the returns from injury of Matt Gillett, Jaydn Su’A and (for now) also the ongoing presence of Alex Glenn in the squad, however his performances this year as an 18 year old rookie were just ridiculously good – on and off the ball. If TPJ stays away from the edge in 2018 and sticks more to the middle, then there will be minutes on offer there as well. Although unlikely, I would not in any way be surprised if Fifita was the starting edge backrower over the likes of Su’A and possibly even a not-100% fit Gillett come end of the 2019 season.

Also in the mix depending on a variety of factors – Tom Flegler (I am a BIG fan), Patrick Carrigan (prop who was also the Queensland U20s captain)

LOSERS

Alex Glenn

This is even assuming he is in the team come Round 1, 2019, as the rumours continue to persist that the Titans are after him for next season. In any case, as much as Glenn has been a loyal and dependable servant for many years (and played very well for half of 2018 too), this younger and hungrier group of forwards consisting of TPJ, Su’A, Joe O, Lodge, Fifita and Haas are banging down that door for more minutes and it’s hard to imagine the older Glenn being able to keep up with them for much longer.

Scott/McLean/Bolton

Each were probably not on your radar before the transfer and they definitely shouldn’t be now with the addition McGuire. There is the possibility of extended bench time and an increased timeshare with a big-minute forward added into the mix.

Kodi Nikorima

This is somewhat of a left-field reason, but with McGuire, Thaiday and potentially even Glenn gone, the “forwards who can sometimes throw a decent pass” brigade can no longer be called upon so sub in for a mid-game or a 1-2 week injury for McCullough. Turpin was serviceable but may not be trusted by Seibold (who knows – plus he’s not in the top 30 at the moment) and Nikorima shapes as the best possible replacement hooker. This could be all that’s required to shunt him back to the #14 jersey as utility off the bench…

NO IMPACT 

Jason Taumalolo 

He shared the minutes with the rest of the big-name pack all of 2018 and it did nothing to stifle his output. He will take on a big role during representative rounds again (think Manly game where he went absolutely ballistic) and he will be one of the most own fantasy forwards in 2019.

THE BIG UNKNOWNS

There are a few here, to say the least.

Seibold – arguably everything is up in the air with a new, relatively unproven coach. However, we saw an exciting, attacking style of play. We saw innovative ball movement and set plays. We saw him reward good performances with continued selection with the ongoing choice of Sutton (who we thought might have been on his way out in last year’s preseason!) and the willingness to gamble on the rookie Tatola. Although, we also saw curious (limited) usage of the gun lock/backrower in Cam Murray too…

Jack Bird – big money, plenty of talent, but also plenty of question marks about his mental application, his fitness, the Seibold factor and what position he plays.

Matt Gillett – is he going to be the Gillett of old? If he looks like a fraction of the player that he was (and I don’t just mean his playing weight).

Andre Savelio – the forgotten signing from last preseason, the “English SBW” will be coming off an ACL injury but he is still going to have his shot to prove that he deserves to be in the 17 come Round 1 (if fit).

The halfback – obviously the controller of the team often orders the forwards around and determines (at times) who is going to step up and take a settler in the middle of the field to set up an attacking play in the opposition 20. What’s that? You didn’t realise that? Well, if you only watched Broncos games last year, you’d probably be forgiven for not being aware, given the lack of direction offered by Nikorima and anybody else who wore the #7 last year. If an actual traditional halfback is given the job for 2019 we might see more of that happening and obviously that impacts run numbers for the forward pack overall.

WeninRome

Wenin is one of the founding fathers of the NRLSCTalk website who's Tuesday Teams Analysis has been a feature post on the site for close to a decade. He also loves a good steak bet!

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    Defib
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    Defib

    For those that dont have “Early Access” to NRL Supercoach, http://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com are already on the ball with a team selector of their own.

    Enjoy.

    http://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com/teamselector.php

    CoG
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    CoG

    Thanks Defib , looked earlier but Cap was still $9,4 mil.
    Thanks SC Stats for the team picker and that surprise keyring , Great marketing

    Gailes Force
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    Gailes Force

    No worries, was a good excuse tonight to have a break from RDR2. I sent out keytags as a surprise thankyou to anyone who ever donated to the site if I had their address. If anyone didn’t get one but has donated before let me know and I’ll get you one. Also I’ve got about 50 left over if anyone else is interested. Cheers

    drunk sloths
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    drunk sloths

    anyone sick of the fact we have to pay for info already

    179X88202
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    179X88202

    Nah, not really mate. Thanks to guys like Defib, Gailes Force & Co, anything relevant is posted on here, as quick as Billy taking a dive. I never minded paying for supercoach gold but i’m not home enough to justify buying a paper subscription. We have almost 90 days till kick off. That’s enough time for; 1. Another three scandals. 2. Another four pre-season injuries. 3. The promise of ten dead set certainty cheapies to start, except that only four of those will actually start. One of those will get injured, one will be a dud, one will go well… Read more »

    playon
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    playon

    outline.com or if you use chrome add the extension plugin mate, it bypasses the paywall on most sites including the Tele.

    for example https://outline.com/V7e8dc

    wombat stew
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    wombat stew

    Hey coaches off track but having a crack at bbl SuperCoach but due to work won’t be able to watch most games, can anyone help with where I may be able to get the final team lists?

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    Final team lists come out about 30 mins before each game starts, so we won’t know exactly until then. This link will give you all the players in each team is the best I have for now mate.

    https://www.thecricketer.com/Topics/domestic_big_bash/big_bash_2018-19_squads_who's_playing_where_this_season.html

    wombat stew
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    wombat stew

    Thanks champion

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    Thanks for the great info guys. I don’t think I can go without TPJ this year after seeing what he did last season. Haas a definite also if given a bench spot. Fifita will get his chances, but is awkwardly priced might have to wait on him unless given the starting gig.

    On a side note, I have 9 spots available in my BBL league #476300 if anyone wants to join in. If it fills up and you can’t get a spot let me know and I will kick out a celebrity! lol

    TugSpeedman
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    TugSpeedman

    Just joined your league man. Keen as for some form of SuperCoach to get under way haha

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    Cool. I hear ya about some form of SC getting underway! The team picker is available for next year too if you wanna try it. Been keeping me busy for a couple of days now. wink

    TugSpeedman
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    TugSpeedman

    Already getting stuck into it hahaha
    Spreadsheets are sorted and chipping away at depth charts.
    Definitely the best and worst time of the year

    Watson
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    Watson

    Hi Flasher.
    I’m in. First time with the BBL so I have no idea what I’m doing. Should be interesting.
    Cheers mate.

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    Hi mate. Just a bit of a change to pass the time while we wait for the real SC to start. Most of the teams in the league are the celebrity ones, so just have some fun with it.

    Hope all the boys are going well in pre season. Looking forward to chatting footy with you again soon.

    Watson
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    Watson

    All’s well so far. Few boys needed surgery in the off-season but coming along nicely. Looking forward to the new season.
    Thanks again for the invitation. wink

    OnTheBus
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    if there is space in your league i might give the bbl a crack

    Watson
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    Watson

    I spoke too soon Flasher. RCG broke his jaw this morning.
    Thankfully, unless to his previous fracture and incomplete so, hopefully, no need for surgery.

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    Wow, that was a quick jinx! Hopefully no surgery for the poor bloke. Fingers crossed nothing else now mate beg

    Watson
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    Watson

    All good. No surgery. Looking at four weeks.

    Wardie
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    Wardie

    Flasher. Your league is full. Kick Sangster out, so I can join wink

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    I have kicked out 2 celebs mate. If you and OTB wanted to join up feel free. If anyone else wants in let me know as I have more celebs to kick out!

    GL to all. wink

    OnTheBus
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    arsenal you took my spot hahaha , kick o0ut another celeb flasher lol

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    Another spot for you now bud.

    OnTheBus
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    full again

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    Try again! lol

    OnTheBus
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    In , lashings smile

    MitchyMitch
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    MitchyMitch

    Great League name – just joined

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    Ta mate. GL to you.

    OnTheBus
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    Question if Robert Jennings has already gone to tigers, does that make Allen (who made PM team) a must have ?

    Only named as a fullback, I wonder if leaving out turbo ted and hope he can match them . Would that end your season before it starts or worth a gamble ?

    AJ GI seem like the only challenegers , what are people thoughts on this strategy

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    Who knows what Bennett will do! Sounded like he wanted to move AJ to the wing to give GI the fullback spot a few weeks ago, but if Jennings is leaving that just means they will need a CTW.

    I won’t be going without the 2 best fullbacks in SC though regardless of what uncle Wayne does. Turbo and Teddy will be in the top 5 point scorers come season’s end, and points are what we all want. There will be other cash cows, but picking the best ones are the key. Definitely worth keeping an eye on him though.

    TugSpeedman
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    TugSpeedman

    Obviously TLT Tuesday and squad makeup dependent but I’m seriously toying with the idea of starting Barba and possibly a cash cow at full back to start off the year.
    I feel like there is a ton of money that could be made there which will help with an easy step up to those two after origin.

    CoG
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    CoG

    Here is my ten minute team with Barba
    Koro , Jrey
    Surgess McGuire Host (jbd?) Hass
    Lolo,Arrow , Murray . Matto, Savelio . Flegler
    Morgan . CHT
    Munster Ponga
    Peachy , Manu Capewell Mann Bowen Xerri Lomax
    Barba Moylan
    $13k itb
    I assume your cheapie is Allen but i doubt he makes rnd 1 but hey……

    OnTheBus
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    Risky spine but all very capable, if moylan picks up the goalkicking in front of Townsend will be popular Barba another interesting one I’m leaning to Hodgson at hooker and toying with Holland and Roache as duels . Roache could take the 7 role or even Luke hooker spot , he is one from left field . He tonned up in a brilliant game before injury . Holland kept surprising with those offloads and looks to be the go too sounds funny lol McCullagh might become 80 and run abit more . Question is will he bevone a CS9 and… Read more »

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    I think SJ will get the goal kicking duties before Moylan and Townsend.

    OnTheBus
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    good point

    Watson
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    Watson

    Is Robert Jennings going to Tigers? He was a Penrith junior and was regarded as having the best potential of all three of the Jennings brothers when he was playing with us. Really good kid as well. I’m surprised that they are letting him go. It does open up the question about Allen but I started off with TTurbo and Tedesco last year and cut TTurbo early on because of perceived “inconsistency”. Lived to regret it. I think it’s hard to go past those two despite the promise of making money elsewhere. I think that there are a few cheapies… Read more »

    OnTheBus
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    Jennings is listed as a tiger so there might be some truth to it or just an error. There also will be question marks over guns who have new coaches , will game plans change , will cody become milf . Siebold could turn milf Roberts and Oates into guns again as he turned bunnies left side into gun status . Bennet went to Broncs and milf disappeared, seemed too struxtured for him. Also does Mansour become relevant now that peach is Gone and Cleary is coach , tigers baxks killed it and offloaded at will so that’s anther player… Read more »

    Parradox
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    Parradox

    Mansour’s one of my few definite starters. Certainly relevant in Cleary’s first tenure at the Panthers and as pointed out, with “Hog” Peachy moving north, I reckon he’s under priced and full of points.

    Madrooster
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    Madrooster

    I was interested in Api K at his price but my terrible memory leads me to believing Des kills hookers attacking game. Any thoughts on this observation? He also has Fainua hanging around and maybe they share minutes, Api playing bit backrow or the like? When you’re only other option at 6 is Kane Elgey Des might be tempted to put Api at 6? Pretty sure he has played there before as well.

    Battler
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    Battler

    Whoever the Storm FB (hopefully Munster) is should be in most teams. What are people’s thoughts on Croft now that he’s practically guaranteed to start for the season? I have him in my current module.

    OnTheBus
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    Is there going to be a BBL scores and trade talk at all ?
    Might be a good time waster if there is enough interest in it

    Flasher
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    Flasher

    No BBL thread mate. Just chat away on the main topic thread at the time.

    Pablo Bill
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    Pablo Bill

    Howdy all, like many, am getting itchy for some SC and am having a tinker in BBL, anyone interested in joining a league, like Flasher, have set one up and more the merrier, have found some good content on Social but no real chat pages like this.

    Code is: 877562, same if it fills up and still want to join, let me know and I’ll punt some of the celeb teams

    Gonna be tricky with the double game weeks and BYES almost every round, see below which has helped me pick my team….

    tigermanfonz
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    tigermanfonz

    Hi Pablo,

    Myself and couple mates might join we are all NRL supercoach addicts lol giving this BBL one a crack to past time

    Pablo Bill
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    Pablo Bill

    Good stuff, jump on board, I’m trying to finalise my team now but struggling with info on team lists hard to find

    Evil-C
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    Evil-C

    The same problem i’m having. If we knew who was starting and where in the lineup they were batting would make it much easier. Can find projected lineups but nothing concrete.

    tigermanfonz
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    tigermanfonz

    yeh its really hard finalising when we can only work off the final teams for tonight. Other teams can all change.

    You reckon M.Marsh gets picked for boxing day test

    Evil-C
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    Evil-C

    Hey Pablo,

    Just jumped in!! Good luck. Hoping to replicate my best ever NRL supercoach year finish with some BBL success!!

    Defib
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    Defib

    So, getting back to NRL talk, how will the De-registering of Flanno and the Salary Cap fine against the Tigers change things if at all?

    DCE2011
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    DCE2011

    Flanno is a big loss for the Sharkies (the guy can coach). The Tigers’ cap penalty ($639K) is significant (may mean RJennings goes elsewhere).

    CoG
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    CoG

    Sharpies also fined $800K and have now been asked to prove solvency by the weekend

    Defib
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    Defib

    Perth Sharks from 2019?

    CoG
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    CoG

    Sharks brand worth Negative $20mill so doubt Perth would want it in 2020 if that was to happen

    CoG
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    CoG

    Valentine read the wind very well.Probs the smartest in the shire