Carlos’s Team Reveal

After bringing up the rear with the position previews, I’ve been moved up the order to “opener” for the team reveals.

The advantage here is that it will now appear everyone is copying me if we have similar teams. Below is my pre Team List Tuesday line-up, it may not be my final line up going into Thursday evening but I’d expect only minor changes to the rookies from this group.

The Non-negotiables

As many guns as I can get early, and I’m currently sitting on eight players who I think would be part of my final team. If you’re looking to get your team value up to about $12.5-$13million, that puts each trades value at around $90-100k. If I can lock in as many guns as I can get from the start of the season, those trades can be saved for generating cash from the rest of my team. It might only be 2-4 trades saved, but those will be vital post Origin when I’ve historically run out of them right when I need them (thanks for getting suspended Fitzy & Tapine)

For almost all of the guns I have picked, I don’t expect them to lose more than $100k during the season and the extra points they will generate over the lower level guns or mid-rangers I could pick is invaluable. The gap between players like Cook, Tedesco & Fifita over the rest of their positions is large enough that I don’t want to be chasing points from Round 1.

I posted this chart earlier in the pre-season on Twitter, as I wanted to have a look at the distribution of 2018 averages by 2019 position. It’s called a box & whiskers plot. The “box” represents the middle 50% of scores, with the line between the light grey and dark grey sections being the median. The “whiskers” represent the upper and lower 25% of scores. It’s a great way of quickly looking at how spead out or how concentrated a set of data is.

The reason for putting this together was to spot the guns who are must haves and also see where my best bet for a POD was. There’s a bit of muddiness in FRF due to players like Taupau, Sam Burgess and Ryan James are in the 2RF section, but they were still well below Fifita for season average.

Additionally, you’ll notice that Trbojevic and Tedesco sit outside the upper “whisker” for Fullbacks. Basically their scores were so distant from rest of the scores at fullback that they don’t fit the rest of the data. If you didn’t have at least one of them (preferably both) you were handicapping yourself and had little chance to regain any lost ground on the leaders.

In the end it’s cemented my decision to go with the top scorers at FB, FRF and HOK, and chase PODS in CTW and 2RF, which have the widest distribution of scores and a bunch of players to pick from in the upper 25% of scores.

Ponga at five eighth is mainly due to the fact it will be easier to move down to a Milford or Moylan if they start hot, than it will be to go up from either of those if Ponga averages 70+.

The Risky Picks

Brandon Smith could average 25 depending and be an auto emergency nightmare, but he’s priced at a 27 average and finished the season scoring 33 a game so there might be a bit of cash to make there. I’d rather go cheap and be wrong here.

Clint Gutherson could be a stroke of genius but given the Eels history has a chance to be a disaster. Right now he’s holding his spot until there’s more clarity around where John Bateman will line-up for the Raiders. If he’s the starting lock for Canberra as has been rumoured, Gutherson will probably be shown the door and I’ll revisit him after the first two rounds.

Starting with Esan Marsters when most don’t have a $400k+ CTW is also risky as I’m most likely handicapping myself in the second row. I just feel that having one stable CTW is important with so many rookies as I don’t want to be looking at four scores in the 30s for the first few weeks.

Papali’i, Garner and Burr could also be gambles, but they should be easy enough to pivot out of if things go pear shaped. If Papali’i averages 60mpg at lock I think he’s a fantastic choice, he averaged 56 in 75mpg in the second row last season (taking out his 8 minute game in Round 2) and hopefully can pick up his workload in slightly fewer minutes.

Mikaele and Hunt are base price placeholders in the front row until team lists are out and I have a better idea of who’s likely to get minutes.

Captain Hindsight

I know I should make room for Nathan Cleary. Leaving him out contravenes my “guns ASAP” strategy outlined above, but the extra $160k generated by going with Michael Morgan enabled me to lock in my final front row from Round 1. Hopefully, the gap between Morgan’s average and Cleary’s over the first month or two of the season is less than 10ppg.

If I had Uncle Nick’s salary sombrero….

I’d also have Angus Crichton, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Jamayne Isaako in my side.

Crichton had a very good 2018 but his attacking stats were down (just three tries), and that shouldn’t be an issue on with the potent Roosters. Fitzgibbon is one of the best attacking backrowers but I can’t find the space for him, plus I also want to re-unite Pongibbon™ in my team this season. As much as everyone wants high base stats forwards I think there’s room for one low floor/high ceiling backrower.

If you read my CTW preview on the weekend then you’ll know why I’m keen on Isaako, but I just couldn’t stomach having $1millon+ locked away in two centres this early in the year. He’ll definitely be one of the first players I target when I need to cull a cow, or even earlier if he somehow finds his way to fullback.

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Canary Yellow

If you want my complete honesty, I don’t rate this squad that highly.

Then again, if you saw mine, you probably wouldn’t rate it either.

That’s what makes Supercoach interesting though; different opinions, different approaches. Thanks for sharing and good luck in the season to come!

Canary Yellow

Yeah that’s it Carlos.

In the end of the day we all start with the same salary cap so there’s not necessarily a right or wrong answer.

TurkeySnow

+ its your own side and your own opinions on how players will perform/who are set guns. Thats more then hlf the fun of it!

I don't pray to God; I pray to DCE

Interesting that you’ve gone with Capewell, but not Nikora. That swap would allow you to get Cleary.

Canary Yellow

If both Nikora and Burr are named I think you can easily go with both.

Maybe bring Nikora in for Xerri? It seems as though Xerri will miss out on the Sharks 17. Unless you want to run with an NPR to allow for the VC loophole?

TurkeySnow

Great pick up.

The Bye

Average at best squad IMO. You’ve spread yourself too thin trying to accomodate the ridiculously overpriced guns from last year.

perrin_07

You seem a barrel of fun on this page don’t ya

TurkeySnow

they are rediculously overpriced because they are the top scorers from each position.

Hok – Cook
FRF – Fifi (1) Tapow (2)
2rf – Jurbo
FLB – Teddy

add in Ponga and Marsters top 2-3 from their respective positions.

It is just where you are willing to sacrifice I guess.
I feel Murray/Surgess/Lane/Widdop and maybe Morgan/Ipap could be season long keepers for mine. It’s where you are willing to risk IMO

Shtanky

The Bye fair enough comment.

perrin_07

I currently have marsters but thinking of dropping him to Holland. Your article explaining about madge putting the offload away swayed me more to dropping him.

Nofo is a centre I’m keeping my eye on to see how madge uses him

TurkeySnow

Nice side, some risky picks on my front. Nice to see guns in hok/frf/2rf/hlf/ctw/Flb, like you have said FRF is locked for the year, unless injury/suspension.

Grizzle

Could all the comment heroes who want to bag out this side, please post their team in their comment for comparison, rather then just bag another out

perrin_07

There seems alot of new heroes on this site this year

Shtanky

As opposed to the hero’s that have been on here longer with an inflated sense of self importance?

The Bye

I won’t post my side until this time next week so that the sheep don’t copy and hitch a ride to the top of the rankings.

perrin_07

I’m sure we will all have a wry grin and a chuckle at your team tho

Grizzle

I haven’t posted mine either, but I’m not just bagging someone else without putting much logic up to debate, which is the main idea of this site-good differing debate

The Bye

Are you blind fizzle? I said why I didn’t like the squad and he partly agreed. I also don’t like is CTW combination. He’s overspent on a lot of trash. Would definitely be getting rid of Capewell that’s for sure.

perrin_07

I think he’s also saying your so negative on this site and it gets old.
Be a hero somewhere else

The Bye

Now now snowflake, if you can’t handle a bit of constructive criticism than it’s probably best you stay off the Internet. Criticism and being told how to fix your deficiencies is how you improve as a person.

perrin_07

Nah I’m not going to bite.
Enjoy your time on this site

TurkeySnow

“Constructive Criticism” HA

JerryWorld

Stay chilled mate.

LuckeeMug

Haha funny bloke.. I totally agree

Shtanky

Perrin him saying the side is “average at best” is no more abusive than you calling him a “hero” and telling him to “go be a hero somewhere else”. Actually he was commenting on the article, you just singled someone out because you took a disliking to the comment, causing friction that wasn’t their prior to your comment singling someone out for a side debate. Then you play innocent and try to turn it around on that person after starting on them.

TurkeySnow

the only spots i can really see big questions over his money spent are: – Bsmith – but explained why, could see an uptick this year and who else would you put there around that price? Egan/Roache? – Garner – Personally I can see him becoming a trap, but in saying that I am risking Host atm who could also become a trap as well, – Guth – Would lock him in if gk, but could get back to a 60av if fit and firing – Capwell – much prefer Nikora at price but Capwell could also score well playing… Read more »

perrin_07

I’m so torn on gutho. The eels really went backwards majorly last year. I don’t know where gutho will end. He’s priced cheap, but I can’t help feel he’s going to have a slow start

TurkeySnow

Yeah the main concern with Gutho is the Eels IMO

devs78

What’s wrong with Capewell? I think I’ll end up with both Capewell & Nikora in my CTW!

devs78

What’s wrong with Capewell? I’ll likely be starting with both Capewell & Nikora in the CTW Position!

Catfish

Could you please put up your team name as well so we can join you on your ride to the top of the rankings? Thanks

The Bye

The Bye. Enjoy my ride to the top.

MattR

Hi All, new to posting on the site. Long time reader. Has your team name always been The Bye? I have been for about 3 years or so now but might change it now. Finished 90th or so last year. Looking forward to the year ahead.

magee

Oh, what a shame.

Canary Yellow

If you’re referring to me I’ll apologise, but I’d like to think there was nothing nasty about my comment. I was giving honest feedback in a manner I considered rather friendly.

perrin_07

Nah your cool canaryyellow, it’s the bye we’re talking about.
There’s critisicm then just being harsh for no reason. Yours was perfect critisicm that you want to hear

Guns-NRookies

Nice article Carlos. I agree, squeezing in the key Guns who are well-above pointswise to their nearest competitor in the same position. Especially when you throw in using a valuable trade & the trade cost. Great graph. I haven’t seen a box-&-whiskers plot since uni. Great work champ

Jumping Marlin

Thanks Carlos. Love that you guys are willing to share your teams and opinions.

SkiddMarx

I’m really torn at the moment a lot of my must have guns are playing origin…. I need to re-think it all with rounds 12 – 16 in mind- team name Skidd Marx FYI

SupercoachGodsBeNice

Sooo many guns but also a massive amount of risk

You’re effectively relying on 2 rookies as reserves in Brown and Garrick who would be very hard to rely on.

Granted most of us are bound to have at least 1 CTW rookie in our starting side so works out about the same

Personally I don’t like having 2 basically bottom dollar FRF on the bench but does help boost another spot

Looking forward to many more graphs through the year 😆

perrin_07

Maybe arrow to surgess to also get the dpp with Kapow if an injury?

LOTE

Arrow to Surgess is going backwards for no reason. Loss of up to 10ppg.

LuckeeMug

Sacrifice one $$$ ctw, move CNK into your starting side. Upgrade 5/8 or fullback with moylan, calker, widdop etc

getemonsideref

The countdown is on.
Have gone Gutho as well – as Bateman plays the last game of the round 1 what happens if he starts on the bench or is a late out due to his “side strain” ?
You still can trade him but your choice will be limited to Raiders / Titans.

Cowboys 2050

Good team but probably one too many cheapies in the starting 17.

Given that you’ve gone premium at hooker, fullback, 5/8 and FRF, you probably need to compromise by turning Jurbo and a forward cheapie into something like lane and Sironen (money permitting).

IMO two mid rangers like that will outscore jurbo and a cheapie.

sabaman7

 carlosthedwarf Some general comments about your first team draft. Starting 17 Spent $8,079,600 on your starting 17. That equates to approx 947 points (including capt’s score). My projections (very subjective) for each of those players says that they will score about 994 points. Seems like gd value for money. Estimated increase in team value (for starting 17) is about $520,000. Nice. Quite possible that 5 of your guns (Cook, AFifita, Jurbo, Marsters and Teddy) will drop in value a combined total of about $310k. NPR 8 Spent $1,496,200. 4 of the 8 are not likely to be named and you… Read more »

SADragon

I was a bit surprised with the team at first but as Carlos said it could change., A couple of tweaks at TLT and it could end up he has 9 Guns and less mid price players due to cash cows not in this team. Think it is better than some think ,bye bye.

The Duke

I’ve always lived by the rule of one gun per position.

LOTE

How has that gone for you?

magee

Hey Carlos, what is the name of your team please? I would like to set up a rivalry 🙂 I like to see how my team’s performance compares with the contributors like yourself. Cheers