Buy Sell Hold – Round 9

There’s a hint of chasing last week’s points in the top trades this week, which is fine as long as you have an exit strategy for all of them. I had a post on this very site about this a few seasons ago which has  been lost in the ether, but I’ve re-posted it on the Rugby League Eye Test if you want to have a read. The data is a bit old, but the principle is the same – expect an average score the week after a player scores 100+.

The frustrating part about these players is the timing of their scores. With a month to go until the byes start, each of them will probably shed any cash they’ve made and will probably be sold for a loss. This is something that head-to-head players won’t have to worry about, and that makes me jealous.

Best call – SELL Charlie Staines (19). How he can continue these abysmal scores on the best team in the competition is beyond me. Big Bevan French vibes.

Worst call – HOLD David Fusitu’a (0). Didn’t even play, an obvious sell now.

Jamayne Isaako ($503,600 FLB|CTW – 156 last round, Average: 70.5, Breakeven 2)

As mentioned above there’s three big CTW choices this week (Reimis Smith, Maika Sivo and Jamayne Isaako), all of whom will cover Round 13 and have unfortunately done their dash a bit early. Which is why of the three, Isaako stands out as the best choice. His pure base stats are the worst of the three at under 24 per game, but if you add in his kicking that jumps up to 33.7 per game, ahead of Sivo (24) and Smith (27). That gives Isaako the best floor of the three, and with the possibility that the Broncos have turned the corner this season he’s extremely tempting.

The other reason is that Isaako’s price rises are lagging a week behind Sivo and Smith, who have had consecutive big scores and are likely to have lost any of their price gains by Round 14 when you need to trade them out. Smith in particular had scores of 29, 29, 59 and 24 before his explosion. A conservative 40 average from here on would see him priced at around $450k going into Round 13 against Brisbane. Similarly, Sivo could be back under $530k by Round 13 with a 50 average, his 157 moves out of his rolling average next week which means the big break evens are on the horizon.

Isaako with a 50 average would end up almost exactly at the same price you paid for him going into Round 13. If you’re bringing in a CTW for bye coverage he’s the safest bet.

Reimis Smith ($465,800 CTW – 120, Avg: 59.3, BE -60)

That said, if you’re looking for a pure cash grab, which most head-to-head players may be, Smith could be a better option as a bridge to a genuine keeper. A 50 average over the next two rounds should see him add at least $80k, making him a decent quick cash grab. As I stated before though, just have an exit strategy set in stone because he’s likely to post back-to-back 30s as he did earlier in the season.

Josh Curran ($293,400 2RF – 66, Avg: 66.0, BE -15)

If you skipped Curran for whatever reason last week there’s still time. He’s only $290k but his current 66 average would price him at around $530k. He’s also someone that can easily be played very week, don’t miss out again.

David Klemmer ($476,100 FRF – 58, Avg: 60.6, BE 61)

Klemmer has bottomed out in price and his available for under a $100+k discount on his starting price from the season. The drop in price came from two low minute games against the Sharks (42) and Penrith (50), before reverting back to his usual 60+ against the Roosters. Klemmer’s break even is right around his average so his price won’t change too much this week. He’s only owned by 10% of coaches as well meaning he is approaching POD territory as well.

Keaon Koloamatangi ($432,800 2RF – 83, Avg: 57.2, BE -40)

This one is more for Head-to-Head players who don’t have to worry about bye planning (that must be nice). After two huge games he’s now set to soar in price and will be over $500k next week, and if he continues this form, he can easily be played in your 17. His base has increase dramatically in those two games as well – 52 and 55 points – well up from the 37 he was averaging in his previous three starts. With Cameron Murray out there should be plenty of minutes on offer.

Brett Morris ($749,600 CTW – 88, Avg: 98.3, BE 118)

A devastating knee injury may have ended his career, hopefully we get to see him on the field again. Four games over 100 out of seven this season is an amazing strike rate, but even his non triple figure scores were amazing for a CTW – 45, 66 and 88. Will be sorely missed.

Corey Thompson ($577,800 – 23, Avg: 69.5, BE 76)

Another injury to a player who was in career form, but thankfully this one isn’t as serious. It will still keep Thompson out for a significant period of time and it’s impossible to hold him at this price. Will be worth keeping an eye on when he does return because he was looking like a keeper.

Cameron Murray ($578,400 2RF – 20, Avg: 61.5, BE 104)

A big blow for owners after it looked like he left the field for a head injury assessment. He didn’t return and has succumbed to the dreaded syndesmosis injury, which means he will miss the next four weeks.

Zac Lomax ($441,800 CTW|FLB – 5, Avg: 49.1, BE 130)

Another big name sitting on the injured list, this time with a fractured thumb. The only positive news is that he will be dirt cheap when he does return after 4-6 weeks off.

Teig Wilton ($415,800 2RF – 36, Avg: 56.5, BE 50)

Wilton is very quietly having a fantastic season for those who were lucky enough to snap him up. This week he’s been relegated to the bench after five straight 80-minute games, which will make his break even of 50 hard to achieve. Since he’s not making money and can’t be played as a reserve this is the week to move him on.

Christian Welch ($554,300 FRF – 67, Avg: 65.6, BE 75)

The Storm forward has peaked in price but given the other options and his incredibly consistent output he’s an easy hold until Origin. One of the lesser talked about aspects of his game is that he’s currently second among all forwards in offloads, only trailing Tevita Pangai, which puts him in the 99^th percentile of all 176 forwards who’ve played this season.

Eye Test first ballot Hall of Famer Christian Welch, 99th percentile in offloads per game among all forwards. Is there anything he can't do? pic.twitter.com/f2ZNdRb4s4

— The Rugby League Eye Test (@LeagueEyeTest) May 3, 2021

Nathan Brown ($458,100 2RF – 23, Avg: 52.3, BE 111)

Brown was a hold last week, but a nasty hip pointer injury curtailed his game after just 37 minutes. The Eels have a very friendly draw for the next two months and he will cover Round 13, which points to a hold again this week.

Ben Condon ($350,900 2RF – 23, Avg: 49.4, BE 48)

The bloom came off this rose very quickly, with the Cowboys cow scoring just 23 in the weekend in 71 minutes. Even worse than the total score was that he managed just 19 points in base stats, which is appalling for an outside back let alone an edge back rower. The Cowboys play the Broncos this week so you can give him one more chance, given that he’ll only lose $10-20k with another poor score. Just don’t play him, and if you have no other option to pick up Curran, he’s a great choice to move.

Tyrell Fuimaono ($305,200 2RF – 16, Avg: 38.5, BE 56)

He was looking like a definite sell this week, but the injury to Lomax has given him a reprieve with a starting spot in the centres. His scores will suffer but he’s likely to play 80 minutes instead of the 35-40 he had been seeing in the middle. He will cover Round 13 as well and could be a useful body to have that weekend.