BUY, SELL, HOLD – Round 8

I refuse to acknowledge last round.

Best Call – SELL Nick Cotric (15). A very average score in a backline full of average scores this season. At least he’s not Curtis Scott though.

Worst Call – BUY Tesi Niu (30). Never trust the Broncos or their fans.

Nick’s Pick – Nathan Cleary

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BUY

Shaun Johnson ($547,000 HFB|5/8 – 84 last round, Average: 62.9, Breakeven 35)

Despite calls to be dropped by crazy Sharks fans, Johnson has quietly had one of his best starts to a season. He leads all players in points from try assists and is ninth in points from line break assists. His overall rank in attacking stats for halves is eighth, which is amazing considering he hasn’t crossed the line for a try this season. Add in 15 points per game from kicking (goals and forced dropouts) and Johnson really should have an ownership higher than 18%. He’s a prime target this week for Mitchell Moses or Cameron Munster owners.

Dylan Brown is another option, but with a break even of 81 he won’t be significantly more expensive next week, if at all, and you get a look to see how he goes as the lead playmaker for the Eels.

Nathan Cleary ($611,800 HFB – 99, Avg: 77.4, BE 42)

Mitchell Moses to Cleary was on the cards this week as it was, but now the hand of 40% of Supercoaches has been forced. Not only is Cleary pumping out huge scores (only one game below 70 points this season), the Panthers have been gifted one of the best draws in Supercoach history. What’s the opposite of a Murderer’s Row? It’s certainly not this – Tigers, Sharks, Cowboys, Titans, Sea Eagles, Raiders, Warriors, Sharks (again), Tigers (again), Broncos. It’s not until Round 18 that they play the Eels, and then finish with the Cowboys and Bulldogs. It’s time to load up on Panthers and Cleary to Moses would have been justified without an injury.

Tommy Talau ($208,200 CTW – 72, Avg: 50.5, BE -27)

A pre-season favourite that has finally turned into the cash cow we were hoping for. He’s not base priced so his first price increase won’t be as large as usual, but he is a solid downgrade option that you could play depending on matchups. Round 10 against the Broncos specifically.

Latrell Mitchell ($582,200 FLB|CTW – 9, Avg: 50.6, BE 127)

The Dogs are letting points in at a ridiculous rate, with David Nofoaluma yet another back to post a triple digit score against them. Fullbacks are scoring at 1.15 points per minute against them over the last five rounds, easily worst in the NRL even if most of it is due to James Tedesco. Which raises the question, how much value do you put on points this week? Latrell may be $530k if he scores a 50 this weekend, but if he scores 100 then he won’t even lose $20k. There’s no time to be waiting for players to bottom out. Like the Panthers, Souths have a very favourable draw over the next two months. If you don’t have carnage in the halves, he could be a wise pickup this week.

Addin Fonua-Blake ($577,500 FRF – 142, Avg: 67.6, BE 5)

There’s a bit of chasing last weeks points in this, but Fonua-Blake does have a history of going large (games of 111, 103 and 95 last season) and playing big minutes if needed. Which given Manly’s forward depth and injury history could be often. You’re still paying unders on his starting price, as he’s down $35k on his opening price. You’re going to need someone to pair with Payne Haas eventually, and Fonua-Blake gives you a steady base to work with (12th for FRF at 61 per game). Along with Josh Papalli, they’ve got the highest ceiling for front rowers and with only 4% ownership now is the right time to bring him in.

Ryan Matterson ($716,700 2RF – 96, Avg: 84.7, BE 67)

Somehow you have to find a way to get Matterson in your team if you don’t already own him. Even without Moses playing his base stats are amazing – 72 per game, third for 2RF behind Cameron McInnes and Jason Taumalolo. As we’ve seen in the last few weeks all it takes is a try assist or him falling over the line to compile a huge score.

SELL

Cameron Munster ($617,900 5/8 – 54, Avg: 66.3, BE 60)

Out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. The week I brought him in. After trading him out in Round 2. I’ve owned him twice now for scores of 42, 39 and 54. Probably do the opposite of everything I do moving forward. At least you can trade him out for Johnson. Luke Keary could be a great pod option at 10% ownership, but the Roosters have the Storm this week. Next week Keary becomes relevant with the Roosters draw once the Melbourne game passes.

Mitchell Moses ($457,700 HFB – 18, Avg: 50.6, BE 117)

As noted above, there was a difficult decision coming for the 40%+ of coaches who owned Moses. Now it’s been made, the question is do you just make the safe trade to Cleary, or a potential point of difference like Brown or Kyle Flannigan? Or maybe you take a punt on Daly Cherry-Evans who is only $440k?  

Victor Radley ($466,500 2RF|HOK – 7, Avg: 50.3, BE 125)

A horrible end to the season for Radley, who was having a fantastic NRL season. Not so much Supercoach wise other than his 105 against the Broncos, as his minutes had dropped into the 40s in Rounds 5 and 6. His replacement Nat Butcher, is priced at $378k but with a break even of 66 and a game against the Storm this week you virtually get a free look at him.

Corey Horsburgh ($461,300 FRF – 38, Avg: 56.7, BE 63)

Even without the injury, Horsburgh was reaching the end of his usefulness in Supercoach this season. He’s made $85k and provided some useful scores and could be traded for Martin Taupau letting you pocket $50k this round, or more next round. Or if you have the cash pairing Fonua-Blake with Haas will have your front row set for the season.

Scott Drinkwater ($432,900 FLB|5/8 – 32, Avg: 56.6, BE 31)

Even with a low BE he may not even make it. Unfortunately for myself I have bigger issues and will need to hold him, but everyone else should send him packing ASAP. That late sin bin cost Kalyn Ponga captainers 60 points, plus another 10 if they owned Drinkwater.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($444,900 FLB – 69, Avg: 46.1, BE 63)

Looked to have possibly turned the corner on this season with a nice 69 against the Storm but has now been suspended and misses the Broncos game. Which hurts as like the Bulldogs, the Broncos are also giving up over 1PPM to fullbacks this season. Is he worth holding for the Titans game the next week? Possibly, but with enough trades you can move him out this week and bring him back again for Round 9.

Curtis Scott ($343,800 CTW – 24, Avg: 38.7, BE 57)

Lost his starting spot to Michael Oldfield this week. Never trust anyone Craig Bellamy willingly allows to walk.

HOLD

James Tedesco ($891,800 FLB – 0, Avg: 97.8, BE 55)

An obvious hold, but in prior seasons you would think about cashing out a player who had peaked at an unsustainable price. Tedesco will end up over $900k next round, and even with a 75 average he’d be back to under $750k by Round 11. With games against the Storm and Raiders in the next two weeks that could happen. The extra $150k could go a long way to bolstering a few positions in your team, and those chasing the top 1,000 will need to do something risky to catch up.

But as stated weekly, this isn’t like other seasons, and you’re not cashing out a Gareth Widdop who had a good run of scores and wasn’t likely to be a keeper. This is the best player in the game, and one who dropped nearly 200 points a fortnight ago. Any extra cash isn’t going to help you if he has another 150-point game. Fullback isn’t the place to be taking risks this season.

Villiame Kikau ($498,500 2RF – 45, Avg: 57, BE 80)

He hasn’t had a good string of scores lately, with a three-round average of just 47. His base stats are atrocious, ranked 56th of all 2RF eligible players at just 40 per game. Yet every week he looks like he could crash over for two to three tries which would at least double his score. The Panthers upcoming draw is absolutely amazing as discussed with Cleary above. If you’re selling to move up to Matterson then it makes sense. Those who are trading to Elliot Whitehead or Jake Trbojevic aren’t looking long term.

Zac Lomax ($458,600 CTW|FLB – 71, Avg: 58.1, BE 6)

As Wenin alluded to in his Teams Analysis, Lomax is the perfect fourth or fifth CTW and could be held for the rest of the season. He kicks goals and has a high base in a very bad side. Worth hanging on to for the foreseeable future.

Jake Averillo ($300,400 CTW|HFB – 17, Avg: 34.8, BE 17)

Not playing this week which means he won’t make or lose cash or be an AE nightmare. With the string late games that the Bulldogs have, Averillo makes a fantastic NPR in the short term.

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Flanagan
Flanagan (@flanagan)
6 days ago

Thanks Carlos ! I have to replace Moses this week and can only bring in one of Cleary or SJ. Which would you prioritise ? I’m leaning towards Cleary because of his average and pedigree but this is also the week for SJ given his form and the fact he’s up against the Titans.

The Duke
The Duke (@the-duke)
Gun
Reply to  Flanagan
6 days ago

If you’ve got the trades, do a one week turnaround if you’re so inclined. SJ this week then Cleary next week.

Trade-a-holic
Trade-a-holic (@trade-a-holic)
Gun
6 days ago

Great work as always Carlos. Last sentence under Nathan Cleary should read Moses to Cleary instead of the other way around (oops).

Franco7
Franco7 (@franco7)
5 days ago

If you could only bring in matto or SJ this week who would it be?

magee
magee (@magee)
Keeper
5 days ago

Munster: “Out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. The week I brought him in. After trading him out in Round 2.

Glad I am not the only one. Stupid banner.

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