Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 8
The Origin period is nearing and although byes aren't as difficult to plan for as in previous seasons (only our top 13 count for scoring this year), it's still worth looking at those who'll provide coverage across most of the tough weeks (13, 14 16, 17, 19, 20). Keep an eye on those predicted Origin sides as well as we've been burnt before! Campbell Graham owners/prospective owners, that one's particularly important...
BUY
Ryan Matterson - $709.8k | 2RF | BE 49
Matto has been an absolute weapon since his return from a self-enforced layoff, and while his minutes have declined each week, his scores are trending the right way. In the sapping heat of Darwin this week, he’ll need to be impactful early as he’s likely to share plenty of time with the likes of Hopgood and Doorey on the bench. Longer-term, he looks a great prospect when you consider his average of 76PPG is supported by only 3 offloads and 7 busts in his four games, with a base heavy workload driving these great scores. Second row has been a bit dicey so far this season, so getting some great bye coverage (plays 13, 16 and 17) and a very high floor looks a good shout this round. I don’t expect a huge score here but his low breakeven will mean stability in price anyway.
Jack Bird - $589.4k | CTW / 2RF | BE 46
Bird has been in great form of late and managed to keep up his tackle busting prowess with a move back to what is normally the less-favourable (for him) second row spot. He has a 3RA of 70 and his only poor score for the season was that game where Nicho ran riot against the Dragons on return. Another one who’ll provide good coverage with his only byes still to come in rounds 16 and 20. At 2% owned, you’d be locking in some POD stability into your CTW if you can park him there.
Tohu Harris - $604.4k | 2RF/FRF | BE 87
Tohu shook off the knee injury plaguing him the last month to punch out 60 from 62 minutes last week, and that should build as he gets back to full fitness. The score there was aided by his first try assist of the year, but it shows he does have another attacking string to his bow. Against his old side in Melbourne and with dual flexibility helping in the event of injuries/byes (as would be the case here for the 25% who own Joe Tapine), now isn’t a bad time to jump back on board. Comparatively, Max King’s motor must be very stretched at the moment and he won’t play R13. After that – surely the Dogs get some cavalry back and allow King to revert to a normal prop rotation.
Phoenix Crossland – $296.2k | 5/8 / HFB | BE 2
Called him out last week as being a reasonable cheapie option and he didn’t disappoint with a crafty try from dummy half. Won’t likely be an 80-minute hooker but he’ll be out there enough to churn through 35+ in base which will be enough for some small price increases, but more importantly will give you coverage for the round 13 and 17 bye weeks which loom as tough ones. Though Brandon Wakeham is cheaper – he plays for the Tigers and doesn’t play either 13 and 17.
Haze Dunster - $234.8k | CTW | BE 38
Dunster has managed to hold onto his spot despite the return of Bailey Simonsson (jersey 21) but the only reason he’s in this section is he’s cheap and he’ll give you good bye coverage, and plenty of us need downgrade options. Many jumped on Jarrod Croker last week who has the bye and is $45k more expensive which is a lot if you’re like me and cash is tight. In a very bad sub-$300k bunch, Dunster is the best option available now that he’s managed to win the spot, but he’s desperately in need of a try. Keep an eye
HOLD
Alofiana Khan-Pereira - $493.5k | CTW | BE 73
AKP is a popular trade out because of his decent pricetag and high breakeven, but this is a game where he could go quite large against a Dolphins side that will have nightmares about defending his side of the field after their trial earlier in the year (though haven’t they come a long way since…). He has a 16 that will roll out of his average next week, so a hold for a month or so pre-byes if you can save the trade might not be a bad play. That said if you don’t own Kiraz (like me) and you need someone to move on, I wouldn’t hold it against you (but would be betting on 2+ tries for AKP here just in case). When they're on, AKP has continued to reap the benefits despite a very low base stat game. I'm backing them to keep up the attacking form for a little while longer.
Eli Katoa - $587.4k | 2RF | BE 73
Katoa’s record at AAMI Park so far this year reads 92, 96 and 70. He plays another two games here and two at Suncorp before their R13 bye, into a R14 game against the Cowboys. The Storm haven’t hit their straps so far this season but were not helped by injuries and suspensions. With that looking to have levelled out, including the return of Papenhuyzen hopefully not far off, tossing away a piece of the juggernaut who has shown a decent ceiling when they’re on, is something I wouldn’t be rushing to do unless I had no one else to bin.
Jacob Preston - $545.1k | 2RF | BE 75
This was a toss-up between the holds and the sells as Preston has been as solid as they come but there’s no question the Dogs are struggling at the moment with a lack of forwards. That said, ignoring the dodgy sin bin a couple of weeks ago, Preston has shown a very handy floor and attacking flair despite the Dogs’ injury crisis. A tough matchup looms here against Cronulla but beyond that there are games against the Dragons, Raiders, Warriors and Titans who have all shown some defensive frailty on the edges. A healthy 2RF in your side is reasonably valuable at this stage of the season. Will be a handy downgrade before the R13 bye week.
SELL
Jacob Kiraz - $650.5k | CTW | BE 143
Thankfully the injury will only see Kiraz miss a month but this gives all owners an opportunity to cash in and splash it around their side.
Matt Doorey - $307.4k | 2RF | BE 56
Ten minutes off the bench was a horrible return back to the NRL for SuperCoaches. An urgent sell if you still have him in your lineups.
Joe Tapine - $640.3k | 2RF/FRF | BE 79
Tapine has definitely not hit his 2022 heights here but despite regressing what some would consider a fair way, he’s managed to avoid any huge price freefalls and maintain his spot in the top end of the FRF pack. However, with only a ‘surely he must find the busts and offloads again’ mentality keeping him in our sides so far, this is a trade you can make for the time being particularly while on the bye. Wait for the signs of life before making the call to bring him back in as it’s likely his price won’t move too far. That said, these premium guys who don’t play Origin are invaluable when they come up against tired or inexperienced opposition over the rep period.