Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 7

Giving the BSH a crack this week and it’s a pretty tough round all things considered. Plenty are checking under the couch cushions for some spare change and there’s nary a worthwhile cheapie in sight! That said, it’s a week for boosts and a week for taking a punt on some pretty dodgy cheap/mid rangers, so let’s try and dig a couple out here.

Look, it might not even be too early to go an absolute nuff (bottom-dollar dual position player who won’t play for the rest of the season). Sua Fa’alogo, Jack Howarth, Viliami Fifita, Myles Martin…come on down?

In a sign that 2023 is indeed a strange old year, we’re winding back the clock and Jarrod Croker is the #3 most traded in player! Desperate times…

Nicho Hynes – $902,600 | HFB | BE 0

The time is now for Hynes, with a zero breakeven and his first bye now behind him. Admittedly, he faces a tougher defensive test than the Dragons and Warriors have been with a Roosters side who have been relatively miserly in terms of giving up points to opposition halfbacks (13^th) and held Jahrome Hughes to just 37 points last week. On the flipside, they also allowed a billion points to Munster and Meaney, so there are definite holes there and we know how well teams coming off the bye have been playing this season. It’s best not to overthink these decisions sometimes and run with the crowd following the hot hand. Beyond this week, his run features the Dogs, Cows, Dolphins, Manly and Knights (though all bar the Cows are away from home). Barring injury, he’ll be a keeper for the rest of your season so ignore the ups and downs of his lofty pricetag.

Cam Munster – $820,500 | 5/8 | BE 69

Not just for the breakeven (nice) that he should comfortably clear against a very brittle Manly defensive line, but the fact he’s head and shoulders above the pack in a pretty ordinary SuperCoach position this year. His run into Origin features two games at Suncorp and two games at AAMI Park, grounds where we know he goes to another level. For a half, his hitup count is ridiculous. 16 runs last week! Even if they don’t lead to points, that heavy base stat game means Munster continues to be a guy whose floor keeps him as reliable an option as ever in this game. Another one that will break the bank but another that teams are breaking themselves to bring in. The likes of Cody Walker who is a popular buy this week are just far too erratic in this position historically – look at last year with Calker as a great example of what you’re risking by going the cheaper option.

David Fifita – $694,900 | 2RF | BE 45

Perhaps because he hasn’t quite had a truly explosive game as of yet (hasn’t scored a meatie all year!), Fifita has gone somewhat unnoticed this season on his way to average 75 points a game. He’s found a new home on the left edge and is commanding plenty of ball. Chris Randall at dummy half seems to be angling the ball down his edge a lot this season – a combination that’s working and will be stuck with while Verrills is out. Gone are the days where Fifita would barely touch it, he’s now getting consistent footy in attack and it’s bound to lead to points eventually. 20 runs last week is his highest ever dating back to 2018 (that’s all the app gives us). A big score looms in a game against his old side who he averages nearly 80 against across 4 matches.

Phoenix Crossland – $274,200 | 5/8/HFB | BE 28

This is about as uninspiring a week for cheapies as I can recall at such a crucial week for buying premium guns. I’ve reached down deep into the barrel and come up with a Knights cheapie (unfortunately not Jack Johns who is banished to the bench by the looks) who should churn out 35-40 points a game and make some cash in the process while filling in at starting dummy half for the injured Jayden Brailey. His dual-flexibility is helpful, as is the fact he is playing the Round 13 bye week. Crossland has been used as a utility for several seasons now, mostly off the bench, so it’s difficult to get a read on how he will go at hooker long-term. But he has scores between 40-55 when playing there historically so at a low breakeven is a relatively risk free option to free up some funds.  

Soni Luke – $271,700 | HOK | BE 17

Luke’s season was halted just as it got going with a nasty head knock in Round 4, with a score of 9 rolling in his average for one more week before that drops out. It means this week is not the last chance you’ll have to get him on the cheap, but a good week to do it nonetheless. Luke might be off the bench but his last two games where he wasn’t knocked out, he’s played longer than starter Mitch Kenny, including 53 minutes last week, and even pushed Kenny to the middle last round. Given how sharp he’s looked in a short window, the two assists he got last week don’t look like outliers. He’s one of the few at hooker that is trending upwards in value (the likes of Cook, Grant and Robson have shed plenty of value since R1). A good pickup who has plenty of cash rises in him leading into Origin.

Jacob Host – $337,400 | 2RF | BE -14

This one is a desperation pick for those with trades up their sleeve who have a plan to move Host on in around a week or two once he’s made $100k (at best). Host is a second row starter, but had an outlier game with a try and try assist in last week’s rout in 74 minutes. That’s done more than enough to give him a great breakeven, and another start ahead of the returning Jai Arrow who’s slotted in at prop should help him make the most of it. You’ll bank around $200k moving Hopgood to him, but don’t expect much more than 35 or 40 from him. He might even be back on the pine next week. Yep, it’s that kind of week.

CTW Gun Lottery – If you’re feeling adventurous and are already stacked in FRF, 2RF and the halves, why not splash some cash on some gun CTWs? The Sharkies are through their bye period and the likes of Mulitalo and Ramien are killing it with Nicho running the show. The resurgent Bunnies have Campbell Graham knocking the door down for Origin and even Jack Bird looks great at lock with three scores of 70+ in his 5 games this year. All eyes will be elsewhere so if you have the chance, close your own and throw the dart at the board.

Tom Trbojevic – $680,500 | FLB | BE 81

The back spasms are a concern, but the down score last week should be pushed out of mind. The man has two tons and a 97 so far this season and has been absolutely killing it. The old adage ‘never trade a gun’ is probably as outdated as the long lost footage of the Broncos’ last premiership win (check the cupboards for the VHS tapes), but Turbo is a different kind of gun. He was needled up to play last week and is a ‘certain starter’ according to the man himself. His game against the Tigers next week and the Titans at home the week after should be warning enough to steer clear of that trade button this week. He’s still comfortably ahead of the other long-term guns in the position (Latrell, Teddy) and without many viable candidates to downgrade to in this position (CNK could be an option at a -22 breakeven but 30% already own), it’s best to just hold.  

Jacob Preston – $506,300 | 2RF | BE 16

He’s got a decent pricetag but has at least one more price rise in him before he should be getting looked at a trade out. With plenty of injuries abounds, a healthy starter who is averaging 60PPG (would be more were it not for a dodgy sinbin last week) is a big plus for this week. Longer term, he looks a dangerous prospect on the edge who, like a few others, should have his last week erased from SuperCoaches’ memories.

Alofiana Khan-Pereira – $441,900 | CTW | BE 5

Will Warbrick – $390,100 | CTW | BE 48

Grouping these two together as they have been popular candidates for tradeouts this week to make some cash. Of the two, the obvious hold is AKP whose breakeven of 5 will see at least one more price rise in him.

Warbrick on the other hand has had a couple of good games but more ordinary ones and now looks a little tougher prospect. It may be the Jahrome Hughes effect, as he hasn’t scored well once with him in the side. That said, for this week, he could find himself in for a bit more of the ball in attack. Look at what Penrith did to the left edge defensive line of Manly last week (it even revived Brian To’o who I just booted…). This week on the left, Garrick is out for a 3-game veteran in Ray Vaega, and Tuilagi is still there to continue to miss tackles. It could be one of those games where the popular CTW tradeout scores big and infuriates everyone who once owned. If you can find another avenue, maybe give him another chance here. Alamoti has the higher breakeven after all.

Stefano Utoikamanu – $414,500 | FRF | BE 50

The only reason he’s not in the sells is because he doesn’t play this week so won’t lose any money. If you have someone else to move on, you might as well keep him out and wait for the injury/breakeven chaos to make a better trade next week. The downgrade options at FRF are terrible this week. Lindsay Smith ($236.7k / FRF / BE -14) might make one price rise and be done despite looking like he could go all right in JFH’s absence. Everyone else below $350k is either a benchie or a Murdoch-Masila type who…is just not worth it.

J’maine Hopgood – $548,500 | 2RF | BE 76

Hopgood did just enough in decent minutes last week coming off the pine to make sure he didn’t lose any value, but that might just be his dash done now with a difficult breakeven. The return to the Eels’ pack of Junior Paulo also means minutes will be at a much higher premium this round. Despite a pretty explosive game that keeps his PPM pretty lofty, Hopgood is a perfect downgrade candidate. If only there were some decent cheapies around.

Wayde Egan – $593,400 | HOK | BE 99

An incredibly frustrating season for both Egan and his SuperCoach owners as he’s looked deadly every game, racking up plenty of attacking stats, but has now succumbed to his second concussion of the year and will miss at least one round. You’ll make a stack of cash moving him down to Soni Luke here.

Paul Alamoti – $366,300 | CTW | BE 64

Alamoti has had just the one score above 48 all season and has failed to cross the stripe at all. He’s done enough to make $166k of value, so the time is right to jump off now and thank him for his services. The only question is – to who? I haven’t got a single CTW cheapie buy up there and with good reason – the best is Jarrod Croker, who is aged, barely played any games lately and who hasn’t averaged more than 40 in years.

I wouldn’t be downgrading Alamoti but upgrading him if you do move him on. Ronaldo Mulitalo, Jesse Ramien, Campbell Graham and Zac Lomax are all 5% owned or less and have considerable upside. It’s a luxury trade this week and assumes you already own the premium guns above.

Adam Doueihi – $522,500 | 5/8 | BE 56)

An unfortunately easy decision here with Doueihi out for the season. Awful news. The gap up to Munster is a pretty hefty one. Should you not be able to jump up there, the alternative could be the $672k Dylan Brown who has been quiet of late but has a similarly safe floor to Munster and a great run of games coming up including the R13 bye week. Ignore the 97 breakeven, these things level out pretty quickly for quality players.