Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 6

As noted by Wenin in his always tremendous Teams Analysis this week, there’s a number of guns back for Round 6, but for most of them I’d be waiting at least a week to see how they perform. Specifically, Tom Trbojevic to see if he holds up after yet another hamstring injury. He’d be a great point of difference but is it worth sacrificing James Tedesco or Ryan Papenhuyzen? Jason Taumalolo is also back but with a breakeven of 127 and an uncertain role I’d be waiting there as well.  

Best call – BUY David Fifita (143). Put in one of the most dominant performances in recent memory in picking up a hat trick against the Knights. He’s playing Manly this week and could be the best captain choice of the round.

Worst call – HOLD Ryan Matterson (0). I did mention that you should be slightly concerned about the Eels playing the last game of the Round

BUY

Jarome Luai ($636,100 5/8 – 79 last round, Average: 85.2, Breakeven 26)

If you take out the 46 he scored against Melbourne in Round 3, which is a fine score for a 5/8 without any real attacking stats, Luai is averaging 95 this season. That includes 95 against the Bulldogs and 128 against Manly. The Broncos have given up some massive scores this season and there’s no reason to think this will stop now, meaning Luai could have a career night and be a great point of difference captain given he’s only in 13% of teams.

Brian Kelly ($498,900 CTW – 73, Avg; 60.0, BE 63)

A huge point of difference this season at 1% ownership, and at time of writing there’s fewer than 1,400 coaches who own him. That will probably rise before kick-off but he’ll still be owned by a very small minority of coaches. And it’s the perfect time to bring him in facing Manly, before Souths and then the Broncos. Just be warned that previously when I’ve listed him as a buy he seems to go missing or get injured. Let’s hope this time is different.

James Fisher-Harris ($530,400 FRF|2RF – 67, Avg: 66.2, BE 38)

Other than his quiet game against Melbourne, Fisher-Harris hasn’t had seen his base stats dip below 50 this season. If you add in his power stats he’s not dropped below 60 which is a fantastic floor for a middle forward, and when you add in Fisher-Harris’ ability to pick up attacking stats he’s perennially a great Supercoach choice. Factor in his dual position status and the Panthers cushy draw – Brisbane, Newcastle, Manly, Cronulla, Gold Coast – over the next five rounds he could be the premier front rower available.

Ben Condon ($186,800 2RF – 62, Avg: 48.5, -28)

Todd Payten’s shakeup of the Cowboys pack has paid off for Supercoaches, with a promising cash cow showing up early in the season in the form of Condon. His debut game wasn’t spectacular with 35 (39 in base) in 80 minutes, but he followed that up with 62 in just 49 minutes against the Tigers. A big concern is that 62 having just 19 in base and 27 in base and power stats. Given that he came off in the 49th minute and the Tigers started their comeback a few minutes later, I would possibly chalk the low base stats down to him standing around watching Valentine Holmes line up one of his five conversion attempts which came before the 49th minute. A near base priced 2RF playing over 60 minutes is near impossible to pass up, but he’ll still be in the low $200,000 range next week if you want to be cautious about it. I’d certainly prioritise him over Jackson Topine.

Sam Walker ($173,700 HFB – 89, Avg: 85.0, BE -106)

Last week was why I suggested trading him in early. He’s a must have now and will most likely increase by at least $100k this week and be at $500k in three. An absolute must have.

SELL

Jacob Liddle ($390,100 HOK – 61, Avg: 62.0, BE 9)

It’s not a Supercoach season until a coach benches one of the better cash cows in the game ruining their price rises. Liddle had at least another $50-60k to make and even more with a BE of 9 this week. If you don’t have other pressing issues you could hold Liddle and hope he gets 20-30 minutes off the bench but it appears as if his time has come to an end.

Ryan Sutton ($546,700 2RF|FRF – 40, Avg: 64.4, BE 71)

Unlike Liddle, Sutton has managed to max out his cash generation, adding a massive $137k to his starting price. Last week saw his increased minutes come to an end, dropping to 47 after 73 and 64 in the previous two rounds. That resulted in his base stats dropping to 40 after 80 and 57 in those corresponding prior games. He’s a great trade to Fisher-Harris this week as the Panthers face Brisbane, and also means you’re swapping one dual position forward for another.

Tesi Niu ($345,900 CTW|FLB – 39, Avg: 50.6, BE 41)

Niu has been relatively consistent this season, with scores in the 30-40 range outside of his 92 against the Titans. But he’s felt the wrath of Kevin Walters and been dropped for noted defensive liability and former failed Supercoach cow Jesse Arthars David Mead. If you were able to hold he could be back for games against the Titans, Cowboys and See Eagles from Rounds 8-10 but I don’t think I’d be able to put any faith in Broncos backline players at this stage of the season.

James Roberts ($269,700 CTW – 14, Avg: 30.0, BE 41)

Speaking of not being able to put faith in anyone, Roberts could be even higher on that list than any Brisbane player. Somehow Roberts and Joey Leilua combined for 17 Supercoach points in a side that put 30 on North Queensland. You’d have to think he’s due at some point, having just one try assist and zero tries in his first four games but he’s already lost money and could continue to leak cash. You might want to hold him for the byes but that’s far enough away that you could sell him and revisit later if his form turns around.

Jordan Riki ($390,300 2RF – 39, Avg: 53.8, BE 49)

Another cash cow that has been relegated to an interchange spot, but unlike Liddle he’s probably peaked in price and served his purpose. Riki only played 66 minutes last week after playing 80 in each of the first four rounds, with his base stats dropping below 40 for the first time since Round 1. He’s made $110k which is nothing to sneeze at below expectations given the hype before the season.

HOLD

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui ($507,500 2RF|FRF – 26, Avg: 57.2, BE 67)

It’s not ideal to see him score 26 points in 66 minutes but he did spend some time on an edge during their drubbing of the Knights. You’d want to give him at least one more go round against Manly this weekend before parting ways with Tino before the Titans play Souths. That said, after Souths they match up with the Broncos and Tigers. A definite hold for now.

Mitch Barnett ($600,600 2RF – 53, Avg: 79.0, BE 92)

Barnett still managed 45 in base stats, right around his season average, as the Knights were destroyed by the Titans. Kalyn Ponga is back and kicking, and the Knights don’t have a very favourable draw coming up, but if he does manage to pick up some attacking stats he’ll be back with scores in the 60s-70s in no time. That said, if he’s your only option to bring one of the Brian’s this week, of the To’o or Kelly variety, that’s an easy sell.

Kurt Capewell ($482,200 CTW|2RF – 40, Avg: 58.0, BE 86)

A lean fortnight for the Penrith backrower has seen him sport a breakeven of 86 but with a matchup against the woeful Broncos on Thursday night it would be a brave coach to show him the door. Especially if you’re lucky enough to have him sitting in your CTW. As mentioned above the Panthers have Manly and the injury riddled Knights coming up as well which could mean a string of big scores for a number of Panthers.

Ryan James ($286,000 2RF|FRF – 41, Avg: 46.2, BE 12)

James has not been named this week, possibly getting a rest after two head injury assessments in two weeks. There’s no reason to dump him just yet, with scores of 69, 64, 52 and 41 in games where he has played at least 39 minutes. His Round 3 score of 5 is set to drop out of his rolling average so the price rices we expected are just around the corner. He also plays later in the round and is a great choice if you want to implement a VC loop on a Panthers player.

Ryan Matterson ($666,000 2RF – 0, Avg: 51.0, BE 143)

As I said last week, if you’ve held this far you’re in it for the long haul. That said if he is dropped again on Saturday evening then you may be in some strife trying to replace him. Just have an appropriate exit strategy.

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juggler

You never disappoint!

Trade-a-holic

Great read as always Carlos.

Braydos29

Thanks Carlos, would you sell Riki or Niu first?

TheCrowingRooster

I’m not Carlos but as someone who has both Riki and Niu as well I would sell Riki. The reasons being that Riki is still playing but now from the bench so is likely to lose money where Niu at least will keep his value since he’s not playing. Also, I reckon Niu is a good kid and will be back in the team soon. Plenty of good options at 2RF for Riki, not as many good options at CTW for Niu. That said, I’m keeping them both this week and reserving trades.

Vanilla Gorilla

I think capewell is a peaked cow happy to move him to laurie

Vanilla Gorilla

Kelly not laurie

The Duke

A slightly belated thanks Diminutive one. It’s a rare week when one of my players isn’t in the list but that’s this week.

TheCrowingRooster

I’ve still got Matterson but will not continue to hold. I’m trading him to Tohu Harris. Even if Matto does come back this week, one little bop to the noggin will have him out again for an extended period or possibly even consider medical retirement à la Jake Friend. Even though he’s 5 years younger these concussions seem to be a major issue for Matterson and I’ll bet retirement has been floated already by his doctor(s).

The Beer Whisperer

It’s Felise Kaufusi that should be retired for repeat offender at concussing opponents.

sleepinggiants

Anyone think Josh Curran is a decent buy?

Should get 50-55min a game, just job security is the question

langers legends

Any idea on Steven Crichton BE. Is he a buy with panthers next 4 games

The Pretender

BE is 80ish – wont get much cheaper than 400k.

langers legends

Thanks guys

TurkeySnow

As an owner, who bought when he shifted to FLB, I do hope he has a blinder tonight!

Franco7

What should I do nikorima for shuster and niu to too
Or just trade nikorima out for luai? Any other options would be appreciated