Every season there’s one Supercoach player who surprises most coaches and pumps out consistent big scores looking like a genuine keeper. George Burgess was a perfect example in 2013. Then there was Ben Hunt in 2014. And who could forget Angus Crichton in 2017? (Maybe Surge could…)
Those who do own them or got on early will gloat incessantly about it. Coaches who aren’t owners will death ride them every week, saying they are “mid-priced traps” or that their scores are unsustainable after the initial price rises. Instead of focusing on them being an under-priced keeper, they’re focusing on the fact they missed the price rises.
For 2018, this player is undoubtedly Jai Arrow.
Currently Arrow is in just 22% of teams, although it will be considerably higher after this week. You be stubborn and dwell on the fact that you could have had him for $150k cheaper, or you can swallow your pride and bring him in this week. Don’t let Arrow be your 2018 Supercoach regret. Buy now, stock is limited!
Best Call – HOLD Anthony Milford. Those who kept the faith were repaid handsomely with an impressive 100 against the Knights.
Worst Call – HOLD Jordan Rapana. Should have been traded last week for Esan Marsters.
Jai Arrow ($502,200 2RF – 138 last game, AVG: 72.8, BE -49)
I’ll probably list him here every week until he has 100% ownership. For $500k you’re getting a 70+ average, 54 per game in pure base stats (third across all players) and a negative BE who could be as high as $670k in a few weeks with a 70 average. Even a conservative average of 50 would see him get to $625k. Ryan James is out this week due to suspension which could result in more minutes. Don’t miss out again, he looks every bit of a keeper with his current work rate.
James Fisher-Harris ($385,500 2RF|FRF – 60, AVG: 50.8, BE -20)
Last looked to be the best time to grab JFH, but he’s still viable this week at just $385k. The naming of Isiah Yeo at centre to cover Waqa Blake who is out 8-10 weeks should help sustain his minutes long term. JFH is averaging 44 in pure base stats and has a three round average of 61 and if he averages 50 over the next month there’s still another $80k to be made. You can safely play him in your 17 or even start him in the front row short term, which will be appealing to those with depth issues this week.
George Jennings ($177,300 CTW – 30, AVG: 46.5, BE -37)
Would be considered a trap most years but the dearth of CTW rookies means he is a serious option, even if he only scored 30 with a try last outing. He looks to have secured his wing spot on merit with Josh Hoffman named in the reserves. Who knows when Jarryd Hayne will actually return and with Kirisome Auva’a is doing a very good Steve Matai impression keeping the trainers busy there could be plenty of opportunity for Jennings to hold this position. Even if they return, it would seem he also has a good chance of playing the Round 13 bye as well if (hey) brother Michael plays Origin. A 30 average could see his price hit $260k in four weeks, which is a better option than Christian Crichton, who hasn’t scored more than 27 in three games and might hit $260k by round 37. If you need to trade to bring in a gun to cover injuries in your forwards, Jennings could be a necessary evil as there don’t appear to be any Jack Bird or Euan Aitken level CTW rookies in sight.
Shaun Johnson ($632,100 HLF|5/8 – 74, AVG: 69.3, BE 89)
Four of his next five at home where he scores exceptionally well (75ppg in 31 games since 2015). That average jumps up to 89.5 in 19 wins at Mount Smart over the same time period. Given the run of form the Warriors are in and that they face a floundering Broncos side there on the weekend, it’s a great time to bring in SJ despite a high breakeven.
Andrew Fifita ($603,200 FRF – 95, AVG: 66.6, BE 41)
One of just three front rowers averaging more than 60ppg this year – the other two are Coen Hess and Viliame Kikau, just as everyone expected – and the only one who is listed as a pure FRF. The only attacking stat he’s had all year is a sole line break assist against the Roosters last week. You could wait as he has a tough game against the Dragons in Wollongong this week. His run up to the first bye is very tasty – Panthers (home), Titans (away), Eels (home), Canberra (away), Bulldogs (home) and Knights (away). He’ll also play the first bye round due to his allegiance to Tonga. There are some interesting rookies on the horizon next week, you may want to ensure you have two trades free by nabbing Fifita now.
Jarrod Croker ($554,000 CTW – 77, AVG: 59.2, BE 34)
Since starting the season with a horrid 21 against the Titans, the Raiders captain hasn’t scored under 63 in his last four and has a three round average of 68.3. If that’s not enough, he’s facing the depleted Eels at home this week. He is in 25% of teams though so you’re not getting a POD, just a consistent CTW, which is very valuable this year.
Elliot Whitehead ($544,200 2RF – 27, AVG: 60.0, BE 106)
A three round average of 49 and just 27 points last round push Whitehead into the sell category after a strong start to the season. As Wenin stated in the Teams Analysis he’s a fantastic player who can cover multiple positions, which is often Supercoach poison.
Trent Merrin ($498,600 2RF – 36, AVG: 54.8, BE 77)
Listed as a sell again this week as he hasn’t played more than 42 minutes in three rounds. There just doesn’t seem any upside with him in 2018 and you can swap him virtually straight for Arrow or down to JFH and pocket $100k.
Moses Mbye ($477,800 HFL|FLB – 39, AVG: 50.0, BE 108)
With Mbye unlikely to hit the $500k he was looking to before his head knock in round four, it’s the right time to sell with his value peaking.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona ($404,500 FRF|2RF – 31, AVG 45.4, BE 82)
Followed up a score of 70 in Round 4 with 14 and 31, in just 25 and 35 minutes and a PPM under 1.0, it’s time to pocket the $65k he’s made. It will cost you less than $100k to upgrade to Arrow or less than $40k to Raymond Faitala-Mariner.
Adam Doueihi ($250,800 CTW – 19, AVG: 34.8, BE 26)
A breakeven of 26 this week and still wearing the #14 jersey, there’s little reason to hold Doueihi any longer unless you like have a philosophical aversion to using the vice-captain loophole.
Luciano Leilua ($168,700 2RF – 8, AVG: 15.0, BE 27)
Somehow managing to lose cash despite starting at $177k and still in 17% of teams. He did sustain an ankle injury on the weekend so at least he can’t lose any more cash. More like Leiulua1/4 than Leilua2.
Nathan Brown ($574,100 2RF – 76, AVG: 63.2, BE 56)
Brown hasn’t been named this week due to an ankle injury and is currently expected to miss two games. However, Twitter legend @nrlphysio stated it was a similar injury to Joey Leilua and Tom Trbojevic with a 1-4 week recovery period, meaning he could be back as early as next week. A one-week break is a definite hold, and unlike Sam Burgess two weeks ago Brown has been playing at keeper level in a horrible side. However, if you are desperate for cover with the Brown and Murray injuries, then he could be a sell to someone like Fifita and brought back in 2-3 weeks for one of your front row cows like Lodge, Rochow or Pangai.
Jamayne Isaako ($302,700 CTW – 21, AVG: 39.0, BE 42)
Currently the most traded out player, and in a perfect world is a hold as he still has some cash to make if he could jag some attacking stats. Isaako is in a very similar situation to Tautau Moga last year, who looked like an ordinary cow before scoring 65 in Round 6 and 81 in Round 8 to help push his price over $300k under the old salary cap. Unfortunately for most coaches he’s the best (or only) option to free up some cash for a gun through a trade to Jennings. Ideally he’s a hold, but he’s first cab off the ranks for most due to the fact that he doesn’t play Round 13 and is only averaging 39 with the kicking duties.
Cameron Murray ($516,700 2RF – 62, AVG: 58.4, BE 22)
Ruled out this week with a hamstring injury. The worry is that hamstring injuries can linger and reoccur (hello Matt Moylan) and it could be more than 1-2 weeks. Given he plays round 13 and his breakeven is low he’s a hold for now.
Johnathan Thurston ($508,700 HLF – 47, AVG: 54.6, BE 92)
This is my hill to die on. Yes, he looks a step slow, but still managed nearly 50 in a beaten side that never looked like competing and he was far from the only Cowboy to look off the pace. Thurston has three in a row in Townsville coming up against the Dogs, Titans and Raiders and plays the first bye round for once.
Bryce Cartwright ($282,500 2RF|5/8 – 52, AVG: 34.6, BE 34
Rumours of Carty’s demise were greatly exaggerated, especially the fake news in last week’s Buy, Sell, Hold. Who would listen that guy? Still only worth a slot on your NPR but could even have a negative BE next week if he scores well.
Tevita Pangai Junior ($390,900 2RF|FRF – 39, AVG: 49.0, BE 55)
He does have a high BE this week but it does drop back into the late 20s next round if he scores over 55. Given how dangerous he has looked when fit, Matt Lodge would possibly be a better cow to sell first if have to trade.
Jordan Rapana ($488,200 CTW – 43, AVG: 44.0, BE 85)
It was incredibly painful seeing Jarrod Croker and Joey Leilua notch big scores last weekend while Rapana languished in the low 40s, but he remains a hold for now. He’s now leaked so much cash that he has to be held and hopefully will bottom out around $450k.
Sam Burgess ($560,000 2RF|FRF – 0, AVG: 58.0, BE 52)
If you didn’t sell last week there’s only one reason to sell now as he returns from suspension next week, which is trading him for Arrow.
Ryley Jacks ($258,900 HLF|5/8 – 0, AVG: 71.0, BE -61)
Trading Lachlan Croker to Jacks could be the #1 trade next week if he isn’t just a one-week replacement for the struggling Brodie Croft. Jacks’ price isn’t moving this week so there’s no need to rush into this trade.
Jack Gosiewski ($192,800 2RF – 26, AVG: 26.0, BE 8)
Named to start in the second row, but only playing his second game this weekend. Don’t make me reference Curtis Scott again.