Buy Sell Hold Round 5

After a fortnight of carnage and crisis it’s nice to have a relatively quiet week. You might even be able to save a trade or two if you’re lucky. Which is probably a good thing because there’s a number of possible traps this week (Teig Wilton), or players who are just plain difficult to fit in given their position. I’m looking at you Matt Burton.

If you’re like me then you’ll need to burn two trades to bring in one of the guns you’ve missed. At least I’ll finally get Brian To’o though. Who needs trades anyway?

Best call – BUY Brian To’o (121). He’s looking like an absolute gun this season after 121 against Manly. It even looked like I’d tipped a sneaky captain option was well until around 9pm on Friday when Ryan Papenhuyzen dismantled the Broncos in a dozen minutes. Still the best CTW so far this season.

Worst call – BUY Hudson Young (49). I picked the wrong Raider to recommend. Still a respectable score but I specifically wrote off Ryan Sutton who of course went out and scored 90.

BUY

Ryan Papenhuyzen ($751,800 FLB – 197 last round, Average: 131.3, Breakeven -1)

He’s becoming like James Tedesco, the ultimate mental health trade. With a BE of -1 if you don’t get him in this week it could be a long time. If he could put up the third highest score in Supercoach history against Brisbane, he could easily do the same against the hapless Bulldogs. Don’t try to overthink this one.

Tohu Harris ($643,400 2RF – 72, Avg: 77.5, BE 71)

His forward team mates can’t manage to stay on the field this season, resulting in Harris being named at prop. It shouldn’t affect his output too much and if anything it may even bump up his base stats a bit. One of the safest bets this season for backrowers, although you can wait a week if needed with a break even of 71.

David Fifita ($685,200 2RF – 88, Avg: 91.3, BE 45)

If you’re worried about owning Ryan Matterson currently then Fifita offers another 2RF with a very high ceiling and an amazingly high floor for an edge backrower. His last game against Canberra resulted in pure base stats of 60, and his last two outing have notched 85 and 84 in base plus power stats. If you’re good at maths you’ll work out that he had just attacking 4 points in his 88 on the weekend, bucking the trend of most edge players needing attacking points to put up big scores. Looking longer term, his base plus power stats haven’t dropped below 53 all season either. All of these numbers add up to a relatively sure thing, which is reflected in his current price of nearly $700k. But if he’s going to provide these scores all season, he will be worth every dollar.

Sam Walker ($173,700 HFB –  81, Avg: 81.0, BE -39)

One of the basic tenets of Supercoach is to not go early on rookies. They can get injured or dropped before their third game and you’ve just wasted two trades to get them in and out. Why should Walker be any different? Mostly because the Roosters don’t have any other options and he bagged 81 in his debut. There’s no indecision about owning Walker, as long as he’s on the field everyone will bring him in. May as well do it this week when there’s fewer injury issues to deal with and prepare for the coming weeks.

SELL

Addin Fonua-Blake ($505,500 FRF – 19, Avg: 53.8, BE 80)

The Warriors prop is out 6-8 weeks with a knee injury, which is a cruel blow for owners who were licking their lips at Fonua-Blake facing his former team on the weekend. If you have the dual position players you can target Harris or Fifita this week, but without them the likes of Junior Paulo or Sio Siua Taukeiaho shape as the best replacements.

Jamal Fogarty ($401,500 HFB – 0, Avg; 38.3, BE 81)

There’s plenty of reasons to forgive Fogarty’s game on the weekend, mainly the quad issue he picked up very early in the game which limited his mobility, relieved him of the goal kicking duties and eventually forced him off the field with a score of 0. But Supercoach is a cutthroat business, and the pairing of Nathan Cleary and Sam Walker is too hard to pass up, meaning Fogarty has no short term place in most teams.

Jason Saab ($200,000 WFB – 5, Avg: 16.3, BE 47)

We quite often get some ordinary cash cows in Supercoach, but Saab may be one of the sorriest ones yet. He’s somehow avoided the axe from Des Hasler yet again, meaning owners may have another auto emergency nightmare coming up barring any late changes. He’s scored just 65 points all season through four games, which took about five minutes for Ryan Papenhuyzen to surpass against the Broncos. He’s lost $17k and with a BE of 47 this week he could lose another $20k with a score 19 and be base priced by Round 7. If you’re not worried about AE issues then you could hold him, but that’s a spot that could be better served by almost any other player in the game.

Tex Hoy ($366,100 5/8|FLB – 28, Avg: 55.3, BE 0)

Hoy had been a promising cash cow and an unfortunate hamstring injury has cut short his cash generation just as he was peaking. His round 3 score of 103 had two more weeks of generating cash before he could be culled for over $400k. He was always going to be a trade out in Round 6 or 7 so it’s not a total loss but he’ll need to be moved on to fit in a gun 5/8 or even getting Josh Schuster a week late as he’ll still make a boatload of cash. He won’t play this round though so you can save the trade for another week if needed.

HOLD

Cody Walker ($646,700 5/8 – 67, Avg: 75.3, BE 70)

The Rabbitohs win over the Bulldogs was a bittersweet game for Walker owners. He did cross the line for two tries, but only managed a 67 and ended up with two unsavoury incidents, one of which ended up with him being suspended for their game against Brisbane. He’s an obvious hold given they still have games against the Tigers and Titans following, but losing the Broncos game hurts.

Tevita Pangai ($635,800 FRF|2RF – 32, Avg: 73.3, BE 114)

It’s a bit of a kneejerk reaction to sell Pangai after just 32 points in 30 minutes, but the Broncos were run off the park by Melbourne. Payne Haas’ return did appear to eat into his minutes, but Pat Carrigan is suspended this week so it will be interesting to see how long Pangai stays on the field for. He has shown previously that he can put up big scores in limited minutes (79 in 39 minutes in Round 1), so I’d easily write last week off to the opponent. The big breakeven is a worry but if you’re planning to hold him for the season then the price changes are irrelevant.

Ryan Matterson ($666,000 2RF – 0, Avg; 51.0, BE 137)

Ideally you’d have sold him last round, but given he was a late out on Easter Monday after nearly 16 days off it wasn’t as obvious in hindsight. If you’ve held this long then you’re probably in it for the long haul, but I’d be getting very jittery with him playing in the last game of the round again.

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smokies
smokies (@smokies)
14 days ago

nice write up as usual mate, good stuff. Only question is why is Teig a trap ???

pryose
pryose (@pryose)
Reply to  smokies
14 days ago

number of sharks due back like talakai

tanous
tanous (@tanous)
Reply to  smokies
14 days ago

nikora

Viaggio
Viaggio (@viaggio)
Reply to  smokies
14 days ago

Sure he will lose minutes when the others return, but there’s six figures to be made in the meantime plus chance of a slow burn after….

The Duke
The Duke (@the-duke)
14 days ago

Thanks for the write up, Carlos. I swear it feels like I just read the last round post yesterday. This year is hurtling by already. Maybe come July it’ll seem like it’s dragging.

eldinko
eldinko (@eldinko)
14 days ago

No to’o buy recommendation this week? Cant decide between him and fifi?

Casper
Casper (@teardrop)
Reply to  eldinko
13 days ago

You need to be told whether to buy or not??!

IANAGA
IANAGA (@ianaga)
14 days ago

schuster still a buy?

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