Buy Sell Hold – Round 4

And I thought last week was tough. This week there’s some great new cheapies to trade in, but there’s a slew of injured players that need to be replaced. And that’s not even touching the CTW disaster I need to fix. Another week where I could have five trades and still feel like it’s not enough.

Best call – BUY Jayden Brailey. Followed up his strong start with 80 and should be pushing $600k in a month

Worst call – basically everything else, there’s too many to list. I might just delete last week’s BSH and pretend it didn’t exist.

BUY

Josh Schuster ($203,100 5/8 – 90 last round, Avg: 68.0, BE -65)

The perfect week to have an amazing downgrade option. You can complain he’s only available as a 5/8, but a $200k player playing 80 minutes on an edge with base stats of 46 and 42 and a break even of -65 is almost impossible to pass up. There’s no need to rush on Sam Walker this week as he won’t change in price and Schuster could gain $150k in two rounds with another high score. The other advantage is that he’s a fine last reserve choice with base stats like that and his ball playing ability.

Cody Walker ($659,100 5/8 – 95, Avg: 78.0, BE 79)

Most people will probably be looking at the other Walker this week, but he’s making his debut and won’t see any price changes for another two weeks, so there’s time for that trade. Souths, however has an amazing run of games coming up – Manly, Canterbury, Brisbane, Wests and then the Gold Coast – and Cody could average 80+ during that period.

Of slight concern would be that he scored two tries in the Bunnies rout of the Roosters and only managed 95, but that’s the sort of thing you complain about when you’re scoring 1300+ and sitting in the top few thousand. If you’re like the rest of us plebs, he’s almost a sure thing and would be worth targeting even if you owned Cameron Munster.

Brian To’o ($531,700 CTW – 57, Avg: 65.3, BE 74)

Still only owned by 9% of coaches, making him not only the best CTW choice this season but also one of the biggest points of difference you’ll find this early in the season. According to Fox Sports stats, he’s second in runs per game behind Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and equal first in tackle busts with James Tedesco and David Fifita. Below is a visualisation I posted on the Rugby League Eye Test twitter account of where To’o sits compared to the rest of the NRL which highlights how impressive he has been.

In addition to this they’re playing Manly on Thursday night. Could be a sneaky captain option as well as almost every man and his dog will have a C or VC on Cleary.

Tyrone Peachey ($442,900 CTW|2RF – 79, Avg: 64.0, BE 18)

Historically a difficult player to own because of his versatility, but when he’s placed in the middle of the field and gets his hand on the ball, rather than playing on an edge, his scores tend to be higher. Peachey has been named in the 13 jersey again this week and his PPM has been sensational – 1.1, 1.3 and 1.8 in the three rounds so far this season. The drawback is that he’s only playing between 40 and 50 minutes a game and his pure base stats are horrific for a middle forward. After 51 in Round 1, he dropped to 40 in Round 2 and a disastrous 33 last weekend. If you add in power stats he did get to 49 but that’s still not ideal from a middle forward. That’s the pessimistic way of looking at it though. If you’re playing him as a CTW, and you should because there are numerous better options at 2RF, a base of 30 isn’t that bad.

Hudson Young ($474,200 2RF – 0, Avg: 77.0, BE 12)

Ryan Sutton has been traded in more this round following 100+ score but Young shapes as a much better option this week. He played the full 80 minutes in both rounds 1 and 2 before missing Round 3, whilst Sutton only played 38 and 39. Sutton’s huge score only came due to lack of numbers on the Raiders bench requiring him to play 73 minutes. Young did score a try in each of his first two games, but every year there’s an edge player who gets discounted because they scored a few early tries and nobody thinks that form could continue, yet it does. Yet even if you discount his tries, his base stats are excellent for an edge, putting up 50 and 46 this season. At only 6% ownership Young is a huge point of difference this season.

SELL

Luke Keary ($553,000 HFB|5/8 – 33, Avg: 75.3, BE 38)

I’m sorry for listing him as a buy last week.

Ben Hunt ($506,100 HFB|HOK – 41, Avg: 77.0, BE 20)

I’m sorry again. Please forgive me.

Matthew Moylan ($279,300 FLB|5/8 – 52, Avg: 41.3, BE 26)

I did say you could wait a week since he could hit his break even. Managed a 52 and increased by $25k, but if you’re playing him at 5/8 there are zero reasons to keep him instead of bringing Schuster in.

Joe Ofahengaue ($342,800 2RF|FRF – 31, Avg: 40.7, BE 54)

Another that I suggested waiting a week on given the lack of bodies last week. He ended up producing exactly what you’d expect in a sub 40-minute game. The opportunities were there but he didn’t put up the scores.

Bradman Best ($551,900 CTW – 0, Avg: 75.5, BE 42)

A late out last week with an elbow injury and not seen again this week. With To’o available at a slightly cheaper price it’s hard to hold him again this round.

HOLD

Tevita Pangai ($649,300 2RF|FRF – 82, Avg: 87.0, BE 45)

Probably the form backrower in Supercoach has been relegated to the interchange bench this weekend to face Melbourne. He may not see the 49 minutes that he played against Canterbury but should play at least 40, which was enough to net him 79 against the Eels in Round 1. A definite hold

Jacob Liddle ($312,600 HOK – 39, Avg: 58.7, BE 4)

He’s a very popular trade out this week for a number of reasons, mainly the ability to trade down to Schuster and pocket some cash, or up to Cody Walker, via Connor Watson. If they are If you’re not trading for either of those then he’s probably a hold until Harry Grant returns as there’s still some handy price rises to come even as his minutes dwindle. This week he would rise by another $30k with a score in the mid-40s.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui ($497,800 2RF|FRF – 61, Avg: 55.7, BE 67

Had his best score of the season against North Queensland with 61, but still has a large number of coaches trading him out. Most probably had unrealistic expectations of him, and his numbers look worse next to David Fifita’s but whose wouldn’t? Dual position, averaging 56 and still under $500k with a very attainable break even, all of which points to a hold this week. Do you really want to miss the week he goes large?

Ryan James ($277,000 2RF|FRF – 5, Avg: 46.0, BE 28)

A HIA affected round saw his first price rise end up under half of what we’d hoped it would be, but all is not list. His break even this week and are still very achievable and if all goes well he could even have a BE in the negatives by round 6 once last weekend’s score moves out of his rolling average. With Joe Tapine out and dual position status, James is an easy hold.

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Trade-a-holic
Trade-a-holic (@trade-a-holic)
20 days ago

Great article as always Carlos. Very valid point about waiting on Sam Walker too.

jnrglover
jnrglover (@jnrglover)
20 days ago

Excellent t write up as always mate. Loving the To’o love and liking the straight captain call.

I’m not understanding the Moylan sell this week with 2 scores in the 50’s in the first 3 rounds and a game against the Cows this week. Surely he is a hold this week and a play in your 17?

I’m personally doing the Liddle to Schuster trade this week instead.

LOTE
LOTE (@oscar-stgeorge)
Reply to  jnrglover
19 days ago

Not everyone has the Moylan Watson combo at 5/8. Some have Walker or Munster paired with Moylan. It’s very team dependent.

The Duke
The Duke (@the-duke)
20 days ago

Thanks for the write up short statured one. To absolve some of your guilt, I bought Keary in without your prompting. I am holding onto Moylan because I want Turbo when he comes back and he won’t lose money unless he gets docked to minus 20.

LOTE
LOTE (@oscar-stgeorge)
Reply to  The Duke
19 days ago

Why would you want Turbo in a wooden spoon team when Gutho, Latrell and Papy all have great draws?

The Duke
The Duke (@the-duke)
Reply to  LOTE
19 days ago

I have the feeling he’ll be fired up after his Harold Abrahams impersonation on the Corso. And he will be a Pod.

hoof hearted
hoof hearted (@hoof-hearted)
19 days ago

Nice work Carlos
My Keary trade in went well last week
This week I’m going double Walker .

I have Keary as my 2nd halfback & don’t have the dual to go straight to Cody . I thought about going with SoS instead of Walker but the extra 50k will come in handy next week .

sleepinggiants
sleepinggiants (@sleepinggiants)
19 days ago

I’m actually spewing I can’t get Schuster in!

I own both Munster & Calker – surely neither one is a sell to gain $ right?

Sticky's Chair
Sticky's Chair (@six-to-go)
Reply to  sleepinggiants
19 days ago

Wouldn’t be selling either of them given their upcoming matchups. Can’t get all the cows.

magee
magee (@magee)
Reply to  sleepinggiants
19 days ago

Similar story for me. I started with Munster and can get Calker without dismantling my team. Simpkin out, Watson to HKR and in comes Calker.

Let’s hope Uncle Wayne doesn’t rest him when they lead 50-0 at half time, but you would expect Calker to be in the thick of it anyway.

Sticky's Chair
Sticky's Chair (@six-to-go)
19 days ago

Great write up. Was tossing up between To’o and a POD CTW but that graph has really sold it to me that he is a set and forget all season. Lock it in Eddy!

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