BUY SELL HOLD – Round 4

There are 60% fewer trades this round, and we will all have to live with the stupid decisions made with the luxury of five trades. Given this reduction, there is also a corresponding 60% reduction in content since I’m not being paid by the word. I would also warn that humour has been decreased by 60% as well, but we all know you provide negative content. Unless you’re Nine or News Ltd.

The new rule changes look to have an impact on Supercoach as well. With the ball in play more and fewer stoppages, there’s an increase across the board in almost everything, but especially base stats. The changes also showed that a team that dominates possession can put up huge score, which makes the usual suspects even more valuable. There is no time to wait for guns to bottom out this season, get them in as soon as you can.

Best Call – BUY Eilesa Katoa (86). Something did not seem right with him being named in #17, which was proven correct as he started the game. He has played 65 and 68 minutes in the last two rounds, and still has a huge negative break even. He might be $100k more expensive now at $272k, but his average would price him at $560k, you can do the math here.

Worst Call – Hold Liam Knight (30). Knight has not been terrible, but the emergence of some forward cheapies has made him very expendable.

BUY

David Nofoaluma ($648,400, CTW – 88 last round, Average: 85.3, BE 67)

There’s a lot of quality mid-price CTW options this year and a lot of us have stacked our teams with them since it’s the logical way to structure your team. But there’s one premium priced CTW that is worth your time this season, and that would be Nofoaluma. And not just because he plays the Titans this week. If you saw his devastating try from a line drop out against the Sharks you’ll know why.

He’s 4th among CTW for attacking stats (38 per game), and 6th for total base stats (48 per game, which is from pure base plus base power stats). The only other CTW in the top 6 for both is Bradman Best, who’s only played one game. Nofoaluma’s power base stats (tackle busts and offloads) are third among all players, not just CTW, at 18.0 per game. When you combine his numbers with his upcoming draw (Titans, Raiders, Cowboys, Bulldogs, Panthers, Souths, Broncos), it is hard to say no other than price. The cherry on the top is 9% ownership, guaranteeing you a genuine point of difference.

Isaah Yeo ($502,400 CTW|2RF – 104, Avg: 86.7, BE 1).

Still great value at $500k and he could be $600k in two weeks, with single figure break evens. The main draw is a guaranteed floor – he has played 80, 77 and 90 minutes in three games this year and is producing 66 base stats per game. That is not only first among all CTW, it is first overall of players who’ve played more than 1 game. To put it further in perspective, he is averaging 2.7 more base stats per game than Alex Twal. This sort of production is needed anywhere in your team, not just in the CTW. He’s in 41% of teams as well and missing him could drift you further away from the leaders.

Jamayne Taunoua-Brown ($245,300 FRF – 70, Avg: 50.7, BE – 35)

Yes, you have missed his first price rise but there’s still plenty left in him. Another 50 point game could see him earn another 60k and his implied value at a 51 average is well over $450k. It’s not too late and his job security appears excellent.

Tom Trbojevic ($722,000, FLB – 152, Avg: 81.7, BE 15)

James Tedesco ($757,900, FLB – 103, Avg: 75.7, BE 62

If there’s one thing Round 3 proved, it’s that having your guns in certain positions is worth every dollar. And there’s no two better fullbacks in Supercoach than Turbo and Teddy. Few players have the ability to put on 40 points in a matter of seconds like Trbojevic, and Tedesco has the second best base stat average among fullbacks, meaning even a bad game for Teddy is an average game for the rest. Playing both of them last week would have had you 25% of the way to 1000 from just two players, even more if you bit the bullet and captained one of them.

After coming into the season thinking fullback was a stacked position, it’s becoming painfully clear that Turbo and Teddy are 1a/1b, with daylight second, third and fourth, Kalyn Ponga fifth, more daylight, then the pack. The sooner you get both in the more time you will have to worry about the rest of your team. There’s an argument against grabbing Turbo this week in that the Eels don’t give up a lot of points to fullbacks, but at a breakeven of 15 you’re sacrificing a small amount of future cash for locking in his big scores later.

Harry Grant ($184,900, HOK – 80, Avg: 80.0, BE -39)

Bradman Best ($240,700 CTW|FLB – 100, Avg: 100,0, BE -47)

We all know the commandment around bringing in players before their first game. There are usually a few occasions worth breaking it for and we have one here. With only two trades per week for the rest of the season, you will most likely have to go early on one of the above players or risk missing out on them next week.

Chances are you’ll need to bring in one of these players this week as we return to only two trades, and there’s the return of Nathan Cleary as well as Kurt Capewell playing his third game. And that’s not including players like Trbojevic, Tedesco and Cameron Munster possibly bottoming out in price.

Grant looked like a superstar in his Tigers debut and faces the woeful Titans this weekend. If there was ever a perfect opportunity to risk, it a week early this is it. Best cracked a ton in his season debut and looks to be very welcome addition to the CTW position but could wait a week if you go early on Grant. Either way one of them almost must come in this week to retain options for trades next week.

SELL

Liam Knight ($428,00 FRF|2RF – 30, Avg: 44.0, BE 65)

Knight was another pre-season favourite who looked very appealing having nailed down the #13 jersey for Souths. But his scores have been pedestrian and his 30 on the weekend was probably enough for most coaches.

He was unlucky to not score more, limited by a knock to the family jewels and a stray elbow Jared Warea-Hargreaves almost as soon as he entered the field for the second half (coincidentally to replace Bayley Sironen who was also going off for a HIA). But like Papenhuyzen there’s no scoring in Supercoach for almost (unless you’re Cameron Smith), and there’s plenty of better or cheaper options.

Jesse Arthars ($302,000 CTW|FLB – 10, Avg: 28.7, BE 76)

Not even a move to the centres this week would be enough to keep Arthars in most sides. The emergence of Best and less than $200k getting you to some of the mid-range options means there’s little reason to hold.

Ryan Papenhuyzen ($504,000 FLB – 54, Avg: 54.0, BE 54)

It’s rough for Papenhuyzen to be listed as a sell this round, after another game where he was agonisingly close to breaking out a huge score. He was very close to a 90+ score in the first half against the Raiders and posted another 50+ score with high base stats. But very close doesn’t cut it, and Tedesco and Trbojevic are in a class of their own again this season.

If you have bigger issues there are far worse things you could do besides holding him, given he has the third best base stats among fullbacks. But the longer you wait to get the top two fullbacks in your side the more points you’ll be conceding.

Shaun Johnson ($548,500 HFB|5/8 – 22, Avg: 48.3, BE 131)

It looks like the Round 1 score was an anomaly, as Johnson was posted back to back (as much as two months between games can be back to back) scores in the 20s. The Sharks do have a favourable draw, but he’s not a top option at either halfback or five eighth yet you’re paying as if he is. Up to Cameron Munster or one of Mitchell Moses or Cleary (next week) are the best options.

Anthony Milford ($463,800 5/8|FLB – 16, Avg: 47.0, BE 66)

Speaking of paying overs, Milford is being outscored by Kodi Nikorima, who is $50k cheaper, and George Williams, who is $100k cheaper. I’m not trying to say you should make those trades, just that the situation with Milford is dire and even his strongest stalker  fan should be looking for an exit strategy.

Gehamat Shibasaki ($286,400 CTW – 0, Avg: 39.0, BE 16)

A dubious choice for CTW based on past performances, but we did have very little to choose from. It also appeared that Enari Tuala may be the one to lose his spot when Best did debut. So Supercoach did as Supercoach likes to do and we had Best come in for Shibasaki. He has done his dash as a rather ordinary cash cow but could be held for a week if you had bigger issues given his price will not change.

Blake Brailey ($246,300 HOK – 41, Avg: 41.7, BE -6)

If you’re going a week early on Grant, then he’s the best option to be sold. He still has money to be made, mostly this week before he levels off in the $350k range. Yet Grant could sit in your team, and your 17 for the rest of the season. Brailey isn’t even a lock for your 17 this round.

HOLD

Jason Taumalolo ($727,700 2RF – 75, Avg: 81.3, BE 66)

The biggest question this week is do you hold him? With only two trades most of us will have to. The difference with the likes of Ponga or Cleary last week is that those positions had similar or better options available and weren’t needed back in your side as soon as possible. You could finish the season without Ponga (having Tedesco and Trbojevic) and Cleary (having Moses), but it’s highly unlikely you could finish highly without Taumalolo.

The only 2RF options in the same ballpark would be Ryan Matterson, and eventually you will want to get Taumalolo back. With most teams having a few cheapies lying around like Katoa and Taunoua-Brown you could cover Taumalolo a lot easier than Ponga or Cleary last week.

This update below from NRL Physio paints a clearer picture but doesn’t provide any certainty because this type of injury doesn’t give any. Best option is to hold this week and reassess after next Team List Tuesday.

Kotoni Staggs ($493,500 CTW – 33, Avg: 69.0, BE 9)

With Staggs only missing a week due to suspension and having at least one or two more major price rises left he should be hold if you have decent CTW cover.

Brayden Wiliame ($229,300 CTW – 37, Avg: 34.3, BE -4)

The Saints are a laughingstock, but they do have an appealing upcoming draw (Bulldogs, Sharks, Titans) and Wiliame does have a negative break even. Worth hanging on to if you’re waiting until next week to bring in Best.

Sione Katoa ($412,400 CTW – 24, Avg: 59.7, BE 51)

I know we’re flush with trades, but the first two rounds are far more representative of his ability than Round 3 was. As noted above, Cronulla has a very tempting (Cowboys, Dragons, Bulldogs, Sea Eagles, Titans, Panthers), and Katoa could easily average keeper scores against those sides. If you have no other issues this week, then you could flip him to a Yeo, Josh Mansour or even Ben Hampton if you want to generate some cash as well.

Joseph Leilua ($416,000 CTW – 29, Avg: 29.7, BE 78)

If you held him this long, you should hold him one more week as the Titans could give up another 40 points and he could go large. This would be the last week though, if he can’t get above 50 against the Titans then he must be sold.

Billy Walters ($255,600, HOK|HFB – 39, Avg: 45.7, BE -2)

Still has a negative break even and plays the Titans and had 39 in just 23 minutes against the Sharks. Next week is the week he gets the punt as his break evens become achievable.

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Trade-a-holic
Trade-a-holic (@trade-a-holic)
Gun
1 month ago

Great work as always Carlos.

OnTheBus
OnTheBus (@samardo)
Gun
1 month ago

nice write up, i can see your worst call for next week already “papy” 🙂

lol at the Donkeys
lol at the Donkeys (@nrlsupercoach00)
Gun
Reply to  OnTheBus
1 month ago

Thanks for jinxing him, OTB.
 
*takes C off Papy*

Jasted
Jasted (@downslap)
Keeper
1 month ago

Great write up as always.
 
Thoughts on Issako? Can see 4 buys for next round prior to 3rd games in Grant, Best, Cleary and Capewell, so need to move on atleast one this week, but I have negative/low breakevens everwhere except him.

Stokesy12
Stokesy12 (@smartcarnt)
Gun
1 month ago

Pretty fair suggestions there I think… not in total agreeance with the fullback comments though.. Holmes has matched average of Turbo Teddy so far and Cowboys are basically building their attack around him. Ponga also averaged 80+ so far so is also in the picture. Goalkicking for Holmes and Ponga closes the gap. King Gutho is a dark horse with the Eels playing an offload heavy game with Gutho often the beneficiary of broken play. Teddy Turbo will likely be 1&2 as you say but gap to the others is not that evident as yet

Euman
Euman (@euman)
Reply to  Stokesy12
1 month ago

Ok so if I can have one of turbo, Tedesco, or Ponga or any fullback at this stage as can afford. That’s with Pap on bench. Who do I pick I’m hoping is keeper so who and why?

polarbear
polarbear (@polarbear)
Keeper
Reply to  Euman
1 month ago

Get Ted, Watch him Shred

Bethany_B
Bethany_B (@bethany_b)
Gun
1 month ago

Disagree on selling Papy, he’s an absolute gun and will likely fire this week. I’ve got the C on him this week

Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman (@eric-cartman)
Gun
1 month ago

One of the articles I look forward to most week to week thanks mate

BT
BT (@bt)
Gun
1 month ago

Thanks Carlos. Pretty keen on punting Knight and holding Lolo for a week. If I go down that road, i need to bring in JTB and play him this week as starting FRF. Thoughts on that?

The Docket Guy
The Docket Guy (@vaughanflea)
Reply to  BT
1 month ago

I don’t hate it…probably cause I’m in the same position lol. I think JTB is decent enough for a FRF start, should put out a minimum of 40ish

Casper
Casper (@teardrop)
Borderline keeper
1 month ago

Worse call last week would be sell munster….

IANAGA
IANAGA (@ianaga)
1 month ago

great article carlos, what’s your thoughts on these trades
 

  1. Lolo and Papy for Katoa and Tom T or
  2. Knight and Watkins for Katoa and Best

 
Obviously would like to do Knight and Papy to Katoa and Tom T but I’m 10k short 🙁
 

Last edited 1 month ago by IANAGA
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