Buy Sell Hold – Round 22

The season is winding down and head to head finals are starting, now is a great time to use those final trades and lock in your final squad. No point saving them for next week if you get knocked out this week.

For those of us lacking trades and playing overall, not a lot is happening besides cursing your non playing reserve choices and counting how many points you cost yourself. For your own mental wellbeing I do not recommend adding these points up and seeing how much higher your ranking would have been if you played the right players.

Other than a wild Richie Kennar appearing Teams List Tuesday was a bit of a non-event this week. Just how many weeks will Ricky Stuart sit through these epic chokes and refuse to make any major changes? At least Gus has tried to keep things interesting.

Before we get into the meat of the article, PlayOn has another fantastic offer exclusively for NRL SuperCoach Talk readers. This is a private NRL contest for Thursday night – a $5 Double Up. Finish above half the field and double your money. On top of the cash, 1st place will receive a free $20 entry into the $2,500 Premier League game on Saturday. If you’re looking for the contest, you won’t find it in the lobby as it’s hidden. Here is the exclusive link.

Best Call – BUY Shaun Lane. Outscored every forward eligible player other than Jason Taumalolo and Tyrone Peachey last with a huge 109 in 65 minutes.

Worst Call – SELL Jai Arrow. Back to his best with 72 in 73 minutes. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

Buy

Tyrone Peachey ($490,100 CTW|2RF – 112 last round, Average: 51.9, Breakeven 4, ownership 6%)

Averaging 85.5 from his two games at the back, with a three round average of 79.7. His base stats aren’t that high (23 and 22) but his involvement in attack has been increased and is popping up everywhere on the field. Peachey also has great matchups in the next fortnight with the Titans this weekend (who give up the most PPM to fullbacks this season at 0.83 points per minute) and Newcastle the week after (next most to fullbacks with 0.79PPM). With Anthony Griffin getting the punt from Gus there might be some worries about where he will line up under Cameron Ciraldo. He’s been named at fullback and if he stays in that position he looks like an absolute weapon.

Nathan Cleary ($540,600 HFB – 88, AVG: 60.9, BE 8, ownership 15%)

Cleary has pushed past Shaun Johnson as the premier halfback this season with his stunning form over the last three rounds, averaging 88.3 during that period. As with Peachey above his upcoming draw couldn’t be much better, with Newcastle especially leaking a massive amount of points to halfbacks (0.85PPM over the last five rounds).

Shaun Lane ($565,700 2RF – 109, AVG: 52.4, BE 19, ownership 1%)

After being mentioned last week as a buy, Lane smashed out 90 odd points in the first half against Cronulla much to the joy of the… *checks notes* 18 coaches who traded him in. Lane currently has a three round average of 81.7 and a five round average of 77.8. Yes, there were the attacking stats everyone loves to discount, but he also had another strong base game (47) after a season high the week before. Since Round 8 Lane is averaging 61.9 which would put him in the upper class of backrowers.  Are you enough of a thrill seeker to join an exclusive club with just 793 owners? You could do a lot worse.

Josh Addo-Carr ($434,300 CTW – 101, AVG: 53.2, BE 10, ownership 14%)

We went through this earlier in the season and his price has bottomed out again. The Storm have the Sharks this weekend, then the Eels (highest PPM to centres in the last 5 rounds with 0.69PPM), Titans and Panthers to finish the season. Not a huge POD with 14% ownership but a nice alternative with one of the highest ceilings around.

Coen Hess ($443,700 2RF|FRF – 76, AVG: 59.3, BE 9, ownership 15%).

Could Hess be back? After an eternity without a big game he’s posted back to back 70+ efforts, and most importantly his last game included a very solid 54 in base stats, showing it’s not just when he crosses the line that he can post a big score. The other good news is that his ownership has plummeted by nearly 10,000 since his peak meaning you will be getting an almost POD. The Cowboys finish the season against Parramatta and the Gold Coast as well, and the Sharks are conceding the second fourth highest PPM to backrowers over the last five rounds at 0.89PPM.

Damian Cook ($759,400 HOK – 110, AVG: 82.0, BE 46, ownership 42%)

Somehow there are 58% of coaches who don’t own him. I’d assume that number is inflated by a good 20-30% who aren’t active this late in the season. If you are active and don’t own him what are you doing? Why are you even playing? The easiest set and forget captain since the glory days of the original God. Cook hasn’t scored below 64 since Round 4, hasn’t scored below 52 all season and has just one score below 84 in his last 5. Find a way to get him in, he’s worth every cent and probably more considering his consistency.

Gehamat Shibasaki ($164,600 CTW – 0, AVG: 0.0, BE 0, ownership 1%)

If you need to nuff someone out this week you could take a flier on this Broncos rookie who has been named in the centres. There have been big wraps on Shibasaki and with the lottery in the centres this season you could even entertain playing him this week against the Cowboys, or Round 25 against Manly. Or you could spend $500k+ on someone who could also score 30.

Sell

Ryan James ($525,100 FRF – 28, AVG: 62.2, BE 110, ownership 13%)

Was limited to just 54 minutes due to a foot injury and had one of his lowest PPM of the season at just 0.5. Even if you’re skinny on trades moving him on now to someone like a Nathan Brown would be an option as James has become unplayable.

Tevita Pangai Jr ($471,900 2RF|FRF – 32, AVG: 52.6, BE 82, ownership 15%)

Yet another injury worry for the big backrower and was not even named in the Broncos 17, although he has apparently passed his fitness test on a groin injury and will play this weekend. Even if he was 100% fit I can’t see a situation where you’d play Pangai given his run of injuries, inconsistent scoring and the fact the Broncos have games against Souths and the Roosters coming up.

Nick Cotric ($401,600 CTW – 33, AVG: 49.5, BE 77, ownership 7%)

There was hope that the move to fullback would be a blessing for Cotric but with a three round average of 32.7 it just hasn’t happened. Jarrod Croker’s injury really was the nail in the coffin for Cotric’s relevance this season, which also resulted in Leipana becoming more involved. The Raiders don’t have an appealing draw either, it’s time to move on.

Tohu Harris ($534,500 2RF – 0, AVG: 59.5, BE 91, ownership 6%)

A late out last week with a knee injury – not that one, the other one – and out for at least a few weeks. There’s no reason to hold unless you’re out of trades.

Paul Vaughan ($462,200 FRF – 10, AVG: 52.7, BE 106, ownership 7%)

Out for possibly the rest of the regular season with a high ankle sprain, time to find a better POD.

Robert Jennings ($571,000 CTW – 0, AVG: 56.1, BE 105, ownership 5%)

Another who looks to be out for the rest of the regular season through injury. The good news is that his form has pushed his price up to $571k should allow you to trade him to pretty much anyone. Even Holmes and Mitchell are only $100k away.

Hold

Cameron Smith ($552,300 HOK – 55, AVG: 65.8, BE 99, ownership 50%)

In previous seasons, Smith running off with 10 minutes to go in Round 21 with an Achilles complaint would have raised the blood pressure of coaches everywhere. This year it’s just another injury and most will just take the reserve slot off Smith and use it elsewhere. A definite hold unless you don’t own Cook, in which case I’d be finding any way possible to bring him in.

Jai Arrow ($545,600 2RF – 72, AVG: 65.6, BE 80, ownership 25%)

Arrow looks like he’s recovered from his various ailments and worthy of a spot in your 17. For every Shaun Lane I’ve had this season, I’ve also had a Jai Arrow. Now watch him pick up a knock in the first half this week…

Ryan Matterson ($475,100 2RF|CTW – 31, AVG: 60.8, BE 70, ownership 16%)

The switch to the halves took a massive chunk out of his Supercoach output, managing just 31 points in 80 minutes. He’s been named in the #6 again this round and might be worth sitting on your bench unless Sean O’Sullivan starts in a reshuffle. Luckily the Roosters play on Friday which will give you a bit of flexibility in who to play if he stays at five eighth. Otherwise keep your fingers crossed Luke Keary makes it back early and Matterson becomes a nice POD for rounds 24/25.

Andrew Fifita ($565,500 FRF – 36, AVG: 66.9, BE 78, ownership 31%)

Played a season low 33 minutes for just 36 points against Manly but was limited in the second half after failing a HIA. With limited trades remaining and even more limited options in the front row he’s worth holding but even if he passes concussion protocol this week I’d be sitting him against the Storm who have given up the lowest PPM to front rowers over the last five rounds (just 0.83PPM).

Jamayne Isaako ($470,600 CTW – 71, AVG: 53.7, BE 43, ownership 32%)

Moving back to the wing will probably hamper his production, but he’s kicking goals again and the Broncos have a few friendly matchups in their remaining four games that could warrant starting him.

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DCE2011
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DCE2011

Have no trades left, but appreciate the analysis, Carlos. Helps with team selections regardless.

Surgebuster
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Always hard at the tail end of the season to keep things fresh but this is good. Maybe more of a h2h match up focus, since dedicated h2h players are likely to be the only ones with trades left after this week?

Sharky Pete
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Sharky Pete

Option 1: sell James for a nuff, sell Katoa for Holmes or Peachey; or
Option 2: sell Katoa for a nuff, sell James for Crichton or Brown.
3 trades left, just outside top 1,000. Leaving Munster on the pine this week.
Whaddya reckon?

Souffs
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Souffs

Thoughts on Salmon or should I just wait for GGM to get a starting spot?

pryose
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pryose

Thanks as always Carlos,

I need to get in Cleary and I have SJ, JT, Munster and Widdop

Who should I punt? Am thinking Munster

AKAonezee
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AKAonezee

who are your fullbacks? hopefully not ted or turbo..Id keep munster hes playing eels than titans next, Might even score big this week! Storm lost lastweek, you know what that means..I rather trade widdop or jt over munster

pryose
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pryose

Ted/Ponga actually lol

AKAonezee
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AKAonezee

lol ,I should of said hopefully not ted, turbo or ponga..

AKAonezee
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AKAonezee

cheers carlos! good shotout on hess! been thinking about him and back to playing 80 too..

Storm-in-a-teacup
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Storm-in-a-teacup

Is isaako more a hold than peachey is a buy?

AKAonezee
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AKAonezee

Issakos next 2 games are rabbits and roosters but the SC GF game is agaisnt eagles at home. Peachey plays away against the storms. Depends if you have good cover for your ctws in the GF.
I think i just talked myself into holding on to Isaako! I was going to trade him too! just wont play him till GF, already own peachey..thanks storm! lol

Chiefs luck
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Chiefs luck

Who is a bigger sell
Hayne
AJohnson

Bethany_B
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Bethany_B

Neither, though I’d sell AJ first if you have to do it this week, or Hayne if you can wait a week. Hayne is up against the very bad Dragons right edge defence that loves to jam in (meaning that Hayne on the wing might get a try or two)

Bethany_B
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Bethany_B

Worth burning my last trade to sell Tohu for Peachey? I have enough cover in all positions and trying to break the top 1k. Also considering Felise Kaufusi or Shaun Lane as a POD.

Thoughts?

Greedy Hunts
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Greedy Hunts

Any thoughts on Tariq Sims? 3rd avg of 72.3 5rd 68.2 and with Vaughn out could he be taking some more of those HUs? Good run home.. Am I missing something here?