Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 19
The last of the bye rounds is upon us (although there's a tricky one as well next week with the Bunnies, Dragons and Raiders on the week off!) and there have been plenty of curveballs thrown courtesy of Origin selection. If you're desperate to climb the ladder, this is a good week to try throw the dice for some big points while others with steadier sides/rankings play it cool with lower numbers. Regardless, there are plenty of premium options available this week and a couple of great matchups, so let's get into it:
BUY
Briton Nikora – $661.4k -2RF – BE 44
Nikora helped himself to a double last week including one in the final minute to fall one short of his top score of the year (coincidentally a 98 against the same opposition in the Dragons). He’s odds on to surge for his first ton of the year on the back of a disastrous outing for the Tigers last week who leaked points all over the place, although were a little more brittle on their right hand side defence which Nikora won’t be running against. Either way he’s looking a comfortable run home player given his lack of upcoming byes despite having a poor base stat rate that may result in a down score on occasion. This is definitely a week to jump on board.
J’Maine Hopgood - $717.4k – 2RF – BE 32
Plays every round from now on excluding R27 and should be released from the Origin camp barring any emergency to suit up this week. Has been killing it in attack and base so far this year and if you’re like me and have been holding off on bringing him back in expecting it to drop off, it just doesn’t look like happening. The usual boost to a rookie being around the Origin guys should parlay into a massive effort here and beyond.
Hudson Young – $573.7k – 2RF – BE 18
Young’s dropping from Origin came as somewhat of a surprise but is good news for SuperCoaches who might be looking for a cheaper alternative to the likes of Nikora and Hopgood who could go well this week. Only thing to consider is whether you can cover his absence in next week’s round (along with any other Raiders, Dragons or Rabbitohs). He has a couple of good stats in his favour – he’s scored 60+ in 60% of his games this season (Nikora and Hopgood are in the 70% range) and finished last year with a brutal run of 81PPG over rounds 19-26 including three tons. Hopefully his confidence doesn’t take a hit along with the rest of the Blues who have been punted from the side. Games against the Dragons, Tigers and Bulldogs scattered throughout the remainder of the year should provide that confidence boost anyway.
Matt Moylan – $465k – 5/8 – BE 11
Admittedly I laughed when I saw he was the 8th most traded in player this week, but the more I’ve thought about it, the more I can see the benefits if you’ve got trades up your sleeve. You punt Walker from your side to give you some cash while he’s away for the next fortnight, and you bank whatever points and value Moylan can muster from games against the Tigers and Warriors (along with last week’s 108) to make the switch back to either Walker, or another 5/8 gun, even easier for the run home. SuperCoach is simple isn’t it? In fairness, Moylan is a high risk play points-wise given his tendency to score in the 20s and 30s quite regularly, but if you bank on the Sharkies absolutely steamrolling the Tigs here, and you followed what Tommy Dearden did to them last week, this could set you up for a huge run home. And either way, surely he beats his breakeven…surely.
Tyrone Munro – $200.8k – CTW – BE -19
Munro plays his second game at a pretty ideal time for those looking for downgrades and points this bye week. At best he will hold his spot down in a pretty attacking side to close the year out (though wouldn’t be a play most weeks given the quality of CTWs you’ve likely got around him in your side) and in a slightly worse scenario, he could disappear altogether and give you a nice nuff to close your season out.
Ben Lovett - $200.8k – 2RF – BE 29
Lovett fills a spot in the second row this week and should be out of the side following the returns of the likes of Murray, Koloamatangi and Cook (who Havili is filling in for at hooker) for the run home. If he was dual-positioned, he could be a perfect nuff for this situation. Has played one game already this season so a slight risk that he fills in a similar bench role in case of emergency, but a starting second rower this week at basement price against the Dogs should be a handy number to have.
HOLD
Jeremy Marshall-King - $599.7k – HOK – BE 106
A surprise naming after aggravating his lingering shoulder issue, but in ‘severe doubt’ according to all teams analysis. Either way, you might as well hang onto him another week to turn him into a gun hooker for the run home – and in fairness there’s probably only two and they’re both in the Origin arena, and one has the bye and the other could get rested next week. So best to keep the powder dry until they become available and hope JMK powers through for one final hurrah here.
Jahream Bula – $646.2k – FLB – BE 151
This decision will come down to how many trades you have up the sleeve and how much you value points this week over the inevitable loss Bula will make given that huge BE. The only viable option for this week that you could conceivably hold for the run home (not counting Isaako or CNK given they should be in your CTW) would be Will Kennedy who you make money for with a trade, but then you burn a trade that you could use to get the cash for a Mitchell, Drinkwater or Walsh down the line. After two games against the Storm and the Cows that the Tigers were never in, Bula is due some luck this week. And in fairness, even the Dragons put points on against the Sharkies last round.
SELL
Josh Schuster – $380.9k – 5/8 / 2RF – BE 62
Well, holding him like I suggested last round didn’t prove too costly with only a drop of $20k courtesy of a rare try assist, but I guess the timing works out well for this week to cash in given the availability of some very handy nuffs this week. Thanks for the service.
Cody Walker – $730.1k – 5/8 – BE 123
Two weeks away from the NRL and then a return game against the Broncos up at the Sunny Coast with a very heavy breakeven. This is a good opportunity to make some cash and look to bring Walker (or Munster, or…Dylan Brown?) back in for the run home. A game against the Tigers in Round 22 will be a dangerous one if you don’t own Walker so this is a temporary move but one you’ll need to bring in some vital points over the next few rounds. The only issue is that your only real option this week is a guy like Matt Moylan (see above), or Nikorima (slightly more exxy at $611k) if you’d like some flexibility in a tough HOK position as well given he’ll now be playing fullback the rest of the season and is fresh off a 97 against the Broncos.
Sunia Turuva - $501.1k – CTW / FLB – BE 88
Downgrade/upgrade time.
Billy Smith – $360.9k – CTW – BE 36
Smith missed last week through injury and like Turuva, looks an easy downgrade to bank some cash.
Campbell Graham - $667.2k – CTW – BE 57
Graham has had a luckless few weeks after looking certain to come in for Origin before a sternum injury sees him scratched for Origin and next week (with the bye). You have to consider whether you see him as a run-home option now, which he very well could be should he get fit again. But with the likes of Mulitalo and Penisini likely to put on plenty of points the next couple of rounds, he could prove too costly parking his expensive backside on the pine.
Great read as always Justin and thanks for getting up nice and early for us devotees.
Thanks good read.
I still have no idea what I am going to do. Another who had about 14 till the origin selections.
My plan was for no trades this week and to go Smith for Munster next week. Now looks like I may need to make some money with Bula and then go Smith to Mulitalo. Don’t really want to trade Bula this week or to trade out my path to Munster.
On the nightmare side I could see a scenario where those trading Bula to Kennedy find that it is Bulla who gets the 100.
Would have to be at least 80% chance Kennedy outscores Bula this week, though I do expect there to be a Tigers bounce back and hopefully some points in their attack.
Hopefully S.J gets on the plane everyone’s thoughts
We will know tomorrow when the Warriors fly out what decision they have made, I am sure.
Whats people’s thoughts on Kiraz to Munro to bank some cash to load up for next week? My CTW are stacked and I don’t see using Kiraz much from here on till the end. He gone from Keeper to expendable
I would hold Kiraz for this week and then if you want to sell, nuff him.
Yeah I was thinking that, but can you really see Kiraz massively outscoring Munro this week? If SJ plays I don’t even think either of them would be in my top 13 for this week as have a solid 15