Buy Sell Hold – Round 18

Look it’s another week with some major injuries, or players being “rested”. Right in the middle of head to head finals. 2020 has been an unmitigated disaster everywhere so why should Supercoach be any different?

The big question this week is what to do with Kalyn Ponga (see below)? It’s a burning question that could turn the tide of many head to head finals but is it a risk you want to take? My view is that Lord Sanga has given us this many trades for a reason, and it would be rude not to use them all.

Best call – Brian To’o (72). Didn’t match his previous week score of 97 but still had a handy 72 and at less than 8% ownership is still a nice POD. Certainly, he did better than the next player…

Worst call – BUY Brian Kelly (3). Second time I’ve had him as a buy, and he’s failed both times. Adding another to the “never again” list.

BUY

James Tedesco ($758,600 FLB  – 132, Avg: 97.9, Breakeven -22)

It’s obvious but there’s still almost 3,000 people trading him in this week and his ownership is only 48%. If you don’t own him then you need to get him in this week and whack the armband on him against a second-string Knights outfit. If you don’t then your H2H finals opponent certainly will. If there was a way I could triple captain him this week I would.

Brett Morris ($605,700 CTW – 30, Avg: 72.7, BE 123)

Josh Morris ($505,000 CTW – 40, Avg: 54.1, BE 33)

Daniel Tupou ($538,200 CTW – 59, Avg: 65.0, BE 49)

Three Roosters outside backs with a combined ownership of just 15%. Brett has the highest at 7.5, with Josh at 4.8% and Tupou at just 3.3%. As stated above with Tedesco, they’re facing a very understrength Knights team with Tex Hoy at fullback. If you don’t own one of them, I’d strongly suggest bringing in one this week.

Briton Nikora ($519,600 2RF – 48, Avg: 55.6, BE 16)

Nikora has spent most of 2020 languishing out of the Sharks team despite a strong 2019. Second year syndrome? Whatever it is, it may be behind him as Nikora is back starting and has strung together a number of good games. He has a three-round average of 74.7 and  is owned by just 2% of teams. The potential return of Shaun Johnson this week doubles his appeal, although they play the last game of the round so you might be taking a gamble there. The other issue is the Sharks finish the season with the Roosters and Raiders.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($578,100 FLB – 89, Avg: 59.4, BE 6)

RTS has been in fine form lately, stringing together a three-round average of 97 including 89 against the Eels on the weekend. The Warriors are playing a much more attractive and expansive brand of football lately under Todd Payten, as noted by myself here on the side gig of my SC Talk side gig running the Rugby League Eye Test (@LeagueEyeTest), which was also cited across the ditch by 1 News. Payten has them spreading the ball more often and their offloads are up, which spells great news for RTS backing up through the middle. New Zealand does have a decent run home with games against the Sharks, Raiders and Sea Eagles which is better than having a fullback miss a game or two because his coach is scared.

SELL

Kalyn Ponga ($679,000 FLB – 158, Avg: 83.0, BE 67)

It’s always controversial to suggest trading someone out this week who just scored 158, but you’ve probably got trades left so why not use them? Ponga is definitely out this week and if you have enough trades you can switch him out for Tuivasa-Sheck this week and then bring him back for games against the Dragons and Titans. You need to take some risks and if your H2H opponent is sitting Ponga then you’ve got a great chance to gain some ground. Just make sure that if you do trade him out you have a sure-fire way of bringing him back in next round, as you don’t want to be sitting $500 short of trading him in.

Mitch Barnett ($564,800 2RF – $564,800, 72, Avg: 98)

The Knights backrower had been a great point of difference over the past month (owned by just 4%) but has been left out of the side to face the Roosters this round. With most of us having trades left out, he’s not vital enough that you need to hold him. There’s plenty of quality 2RF’s available who have low ownership and will get a similar score, with Tohu Harris sitting at just $550k and 12% ownership one of the standouts.

Brian Kelly ($490,100 CTW – 3, Avg: 52.8, BE 104)

Out this week and maybe longer with an ankle injury. As stated above I’m going to refuse to list him as a buy again because every time I do, he has a bad game or gets injured. Never again.

Jaxson Paulo ($358,800 CTW – 18, Avg: 41.3, BE 17)

Paulo does have a small break even and a three-round average of 59.3, but he’s been named on the bench and could be an auto emergency nightmare. The Rabbitohs do play first this weekend so you can wait for final team lists to decide if you want to trade him out. Nuffing him out would net you nearly $180k which could make a handy upgrade elsewhere.

Jed Cartwright ($184,900 CTW|2RF – 0, Avg: 0.0, BE 23)

Everyone’s favourite nuff has done it again and appeared on a team list at the end of the season and is now an auto emergency nightmare candidate. If you have some spare trades and aren’t constantly trading out injured players like the rest of us, it might be worth punting him for someone who definitely won’t play.

HOLD

Stephen Crichton ($449,700 CTW – 22, Avg: 54.2, BE 106)

Trading out Crichton this week would be premature unless you’re one of the lucky ones who isn’t suffering from multiple weekly injuries. Whilst he did have a down week and is facing the Eels this Round, the Panthers finish up the season with the Cowboys and Bulldogs. At worst you could leave him out of your 17, but the Bunnies put 38 points on the Eels recently and the Warriors made them look silly at times, meaning there’s a good chance Crichton gets a pie this weekend.

Beau Fermor ($334,100 2RF – 57, Avg: 49.6, BE -3)

It’s not that comforting seeing him named in the centres, where he played when he scored a season low 30 against the Storm. Hopefully, there’s a late reshuffle and he ends up in the backrow to take advantage of that negative BE. After that last price rise one of your final trades should be nuffing him out.

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juggler
juggler (@juggler)
19 days ago

Good work over the season – I await this one as much as any!

The Q is – is Nofo match up proof (thumbs up) or do I go BMoz (thumbs down) instead?

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