Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 18

Round 17 is over and let us never speak of it again. It’s time to move on to the pointy end of the season where all of your guns get injured, but you ran out of trades weeks ago.

Best Call – BUY Aiden Tolman. Not a huge score but another 50+ base game for a sub $400k forward. The perfect 18/19/20th man.

Worst Call – Ignoring Jarome Luai. I had stated Lachlan Lewis was a better option since he was dual and whilst he played well for his 60, he didn’t ton up like Luai did as the Warriors folded like a house of cards. Please remember not to chase last week’s points and trade carefully.

Buy

Jai Arrow ($593,800 2RF – 0 last round, Average: 68.8, Breakeven 26)

Not a lot needs to be said for Arrow. He has the third highest average among second rowers, is third in total base per game at 53.4 and has the most 70+ point games this year for backrowers with seven. A one in two chance of a 70 point game? Should be owned by everyone.

Rhyse Martin ($506,100 2RF – 153, AVG: 81.5, BE -28)

Between Round 14 and 16 over 4,600 coaches traded out our new lord and saviour (or should that be God 2.0 as coined by Trent Copeland?). They are now probably suffering the biggest case of seller’s remorse in Supercoach history. Either way he’s still only $500k if you don’t own him, which is criminally under-priced for an 80 minute backrower who kicks goals like peak Hazem El Masri.

Alex Johnston ($575,500 CTW|FLB – 0, AVG: 59.9, BE 29)

Even at $575k he may still be good value on the back of a hot month of form. Thanks to a three round average of 88 he’s likely to be over $600k next week. Johnston also has the second most 80+ games this season at the CTW position with four, only behind Blake Ferguson’s five. There is some concern that Greg Inglis missing for six weeks with a fractured thumb will no longer attract the attention of the defence and Johnston’s scores may suffer. Given how well Souths have been performing and their run home it’s not enough of a deterrent right now.

Nathan Brown ($546,100 2RF – 0, AVG: 61.9, BE 74)

Everyone is falling over themselves to get the big name backrowers in, but Brown only has an ownership of 7.6% with a better season average than Sam Burgess and Paul Gallen. Granted those two have been playing great football in the last month and their season averages are affected by injury, but Brown could easily post similar numbers for the rest of the season and give you a much needed POD.

Clint Gutherson ($429,900 CTW|FLB – 0, AVG: 48.2, BE 35)

Surge has managed to scoop another of my players this week in his tremendous Teams Analysis. Only 5% owned and games against Newcastle and Canterbury in the next two weeks who give up a good PPM of 0.75 to centre/wings.

Lachlan Lewis ($164,600 HFB|5/8 – 60, AVG: 47.5, BE -34)

Lewis would probably be talked about more highly if it wasn’t for Luai’s outburst against the hapless Warriors. Had another 30 point base game which is ridiculously for a half. His two round base average of 32.5 is only behind John Sutton, who averages 35 as a backrower, and there’s no other half above 30 who’s played more than one game. Basically, he’s unlikely to be an AE issue and could be a better option than a nuff if you want a safety net in your halves. I’m playing with fire but again I’d put him over Luai due to the dual position and you’re unlikely to have the trades left to cash in on his one massive price rise. As this is written pre-Origin, if either Nathan Cleary or James Maloney suffer a serious injury Luai could come back into play even if he’s only available at 5/8, a position most of us are already set with.

James Tedesco ($546,800 FLB – 0, AVG: 63.1, BE 97)

Tom Trbojevic ($552,100 FLB – 0, AVG: 70.0, BE 74)

If you’re dead set on trading Ponga (I still think he’s a hold, see below), then wait and see if either of these two back up after origin and grab the one you don’t have.

A dual nuff ($164,600 2RF/FRF or CTW/2RF – 0, AVG: 0.0, BE 20)

Origin is over and nuffing season has officially started. It’s time to start looking at some dual position players who won’t see the field this season but allow you to cash out some non-keepers and gain some position flexibility. They’re also handy VC loop options if you pick the right teams. Friend of the site Ric Saunders (@ric_gady) put out a handy chart for nuff picking, with the Roosters, Souths and Warriors offering the best choices due to playing more Sunday games as you want a loophole option playing as late as possible. His fantastic chart is here if you want to check it out

Sell

Kurt Mann ($301,100 CTW|HFB – 76, AVG: 24.8, BE 16)

This was the outcome everyone was worried about. At least he’s increased by $80k and provided a very valuable 76 points on the weekend but he will need to be punted ASAP to avoid auto emergency issues. Owners will cross their fingers and hope Mary swings a late change but it’s not something I’d be wanting to risk.

Peta Hiku ($357,300 CTW – 25, AVG: 47.8, BE 80)

Got hooked for Gerald Beale on Friday in one of the worst defensive performances in recent memory. Once looked like a decent fifth centre option but now has no place in anyone’s team. To think I sold Isaako around the first bye weekend instead of Hiku…

Michael Gordon ($522,900 CTW|FLB – 30, AVG: 51.3, BE 125)

If you grabbed Gordon for bye coverage after his huge core it probably didn’t play out as expected with only 30 on the weekend. What was that about chasing last weeks points again? He didn’t even gain $60k from his two games after 138 against the Bulldogs and must be traded this week before he leaks a massive amount of cash.

Tevita Pangai ($455,100 2RF|FRF – 42, AVG: 51.6, BE 91)

Another who underdelivered for bye coverage on the weekend. With a big break even and a glut of options available in the forwards (both for Supercoach and at his club side), there’s no room left for Pangai this season.

AJ Brimson ($265,500 HFB|5/8 – 33, AVG: 35.6, BE 22)

Brimson has good base stats for his position (27 per game, fifth among all halves) but hasn’t been able to jag the attacking stats needed for him to get a nice price rise. You can still pocket $100k from a downgrade to Lewis who will offer the same dual position flexibility.

Hold

Joe Tapine ($597,800 2RF|FRF – 87, AVG: 60.5, BE 96)

Even if he cops a two week suspension for his lifting tackle, he’s a great POD for the rest of the season with only 10% ownership and a valuable dual position if you own the likes of Burgess, Kikau or Hess. Keeping him will probably come down to numbers and players backing up from Origin.

Villiame Kikau ($449,600 2RF|FRF – 101, AVG: 59.3, BE 24)

Has as many 70+ games as Taupau and Fifita (six), and more than Ryan James (4), Burgess (4) and Hess (3). Add in his dual position with the ability to go large he looms as a great 17/18th man option to play depending on matchups as his base is pretty poor compared to other front rowers, averaging just 37 per game.

Kalyn Ponga ($598,100 FLB – 0, AVG: 67.9, BE 100)

There is talk of Ponga being back in round 20, which would only be another two rounds he misses. Hamstrings are always risky proposition to return from, but if you look at where the five round averages for Trbjoveic (62.8, 29th) and Tedesco (60.6, 45th) are, with both coming off a third Origin game, you’re probably better off running one of your bench forwards as a reserve for the next two weeks and saving trade. Turbo hasn’t scored above 80 since Round 4 while Tedesco hasn’t scored more than 83 since Round 2. Ponga had two above 83 in his last five full games alone. Ultimately it will come down to your team composition but with the depth in the backrow most coaches should have someone who can fill that last reserve spot. Finally, do you really want to be going in to an important H2H final against someone who held Ponga?

David Fusitua ($409,600 CTW – 16, AVG: 48.8, BE 31)

These were the sort of games to expect from Fusitua, but he’s still the leading try scorer in the competition and was always going to be a matchup specific play. Dumping him now would be a knee jerk reaction from a position that has been a lottery all season.

Ryan Matterson ($572,700 CTW|2RF – 0, AVG: 65.5, BE 88)

There are some rumours that the myth himself may be back playing this weekend, if you held this long the wait may finally be over. I’m sure you’re all vigilantly checking Wacko’s Whispers on a Friday anyway, although the Roosters don’t play until Sunday.

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Trade-a-holic
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Trade-a-holic

Great write up Carlos and a big thanks to Ric Saunders for the very useful chart of which teams play on which days.

The Riff
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The Riff

Thanks for the shout out fellas!
Here is another interesting fact, from round 21-25 (finals time) the sharks draw:
21 – Sunday
22 – Sunday
23 – Saturday
24 – Sunday
25 – Sunday

Briton Nikora (duel 2RF/CTW) will be the latest addition to my team for the run home

magee
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magee

Nikora may be well up the “most traded in” rankings this week wink

DCE2011
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DCE2011

Terrific article, Carlos. Are you still bullish on Hodgson as a POD?

WT2K
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WT2K

Nice one Carlos.
Have had TPJ > Brown pencilled in for this round.
Like the Brimson to Lewis trade you’ve mentioned. Might make that my 2nd trade.

BT
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BT

Thanks Carlos. Would love to save trades this week as target players BEs are quite high. Except for Arrow. But then SOO was brutal, so it would be a punt to bring him in this week with the uncertainty over minutes.

Will he hit his BE if he plays? Only 29, so you’d think so…

RabbitohInTheShire
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RabbitohInTheShire

Good stuff and vindicates the trades I had in mind.

Hiku (at FB) to A Johnston [Then next week, Nene McDonald out, AJ to CTW, Teddy to FB)
Tohu to Arrow.

Feeling good about this.

Catfish
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Great work mate

ajr123
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ajr123

Great write up mate, thoughts on Papalii as a bit of a H2H pod?