BUY SELL HOLD – Round 17

Head to Head finals are here, and you know what that means – more injuries and forced trades. This week a few of the highest owned players in the game. Can you carry both of them? Probably if you spend your trades this week but playing it safe is for losers. Just use your trades, after all you can’t have trade regrets when you don’t have any left.

If you are making trades this week, it’s best to hold at least one until after the first lockout of the weekend so you can see how your H2H opponent has lined up. Then you can spot where you can bring in a point of difference to swing the result in your favour. Of course, your opponent is probably doing this too if they’ve got any clue, so beware.

Best call – HOLD Beau Fermor (71). Not sure I’d want to play him in my 17 moving forward but he’s not likely to be an auto emergency nightmare moving forward as long as he’s starting on an edge.

Worst call –  BUY Mitch Barnett (43). Not a great score from the Knights backrower but you’d be expecting more. Didn’t help that Liam Martin nearly doubled his score either. I think Barnett is a great POD for the run home though.


BUY

AJ Brimson ($540,000 5/8|FLB – 88 last round, Average: 75.2, Breakeven 26)

Brimson might not be as cheap as he was a month ago when some more astute coaches (such as myself) jumped on, more as temporary solution until Cameron Munster returns. Thankfully, he’s not only increased in cash by nearly $200k but he’s also sporting a three-round average of 82.

He’s still relatively unique, with only 6% of teams owning him (although I’d expect that a lot of highly ranked teams compromise that number). The big advantage is that the Titans have possibly the softest final four games of the season – Canterbury, Brisbane, Manly and Newcastle. If you can’t keep Johnson this week then Brimson is a definite option and a huge point of difference that you can play every week with confidence.

Brian To’o ($483,000 CTW – 97, Avg: 55.4, BE 50)

The Panthers winger returned from an ankle injury last week in fine form with a 97 against Wests. This week they face the Broncos and there’s a good chance he’ll hit that score again or go even higher.

As regular readers know the Panthers draw to finish the season is amazing, especially so now that Parramatta seem to have imploded. At just 2% ownership with less than 2,200 selections he’s a great point of difference in your CTW this week when many coaches will be scrambling to fill spots.

Brian Kelly ($565,000 CTW – 78, Avg: 56.4, BE 104)

Buy, Sell, Hold is becoming the post that cried Kelly. Last time he burnt us, following scores of 92 and 105 with a 31. As noted in that post, he has a habit of stringing a few big scores together before producing a stinker. Now the stinker is out of the way and as mentioned above with Brimson, the Titans have a great draw to finish the season. His ownership is still miniscule (less than 1,400 selections or 1% ) which means he’s a huge POD if he does fire.

Addin Fonua-Blake ($455,500 FRF – 93, Avg: 61.7, BE 39)

It’s hard to believe that a little over five weeks ago Fonua-Blake was well over $600k and looked like one of the premium front row options this season. An untimely injury has now meant that he’s nearly $200k cheaper than his 2020 peak and his ownership is only 2% (less than 2500 teams).

The problem is that you don’t know which AFB will show up each week. Will you get SC Gun AFB who puts 110 on a team with huge a base and some strong attacking stats? Or will you get injured knee AFB who scores 18 points in 20 minutes before leaving the field and missing the next two rounds? Or will you get grub AFB who takes out an opposing half with a cheap shot and misses a week through suspension? With a game against the toothless Tigers this weekend he’s probably worth a flyer.

SELL

Shaun Johnson ($627,900 HFB|5/8 – 0, Avg: 70.2, BE 111)

It’s hard to sell Johnson knowing he could be back next week, especially since he’s only had one score below 60 since Round 4 and has a five-round average of 81.8. But missing yet another week with a groin injury and with games against the Roosters and Raiders to close out the season he may not have even been worth a spot in your final 17 for those games. If you can move him to Cameron Munster or Brimson this week, you’ll be seeing similar scores.

Latrell Mitchell ($559,300 FLB|CTW – 58, Avg: 59.2, BE 12)

I did mention last week that you should hold him one more week for a price rise and then look at selling. He could have easily had another 100+ game if not for that unfortunate hamstring injury. The worst part is that Josh Mansour’s big game against the Tigers pushed his price up to where it’s no longer a straight swap between them.

Dylan Brown ($503,000 HFB|5/8 – 35, Avg: 63.8, BE 98)

Another unfortunately injury from last round, as Brown was one having a promising season on the field as well as in Supercoach. Brown to Brimson is a fantastic trade to make this week for owners.

Harry Grant ($568,900 HOK – 40, Avg: 71.8, BE 118)

It looks like he’s not going to be playing 80 minutes again with Jacob Liddle on the bench, after he played just 56 again Penrith. He does face Manly this week and could still put up a big score in limited minutes but with a huge BE it will be very difficult to move him to one of the premium hookers next round. Keep an eye on Stilesy’s late mail and team lists, if Liddle drops out for Chris Lawrence or Tommy Talau then Grant could be set for a big one.

HOLD

Isaah Yeo ($561,000 CTW|2RF – 42, Avg: 71.3, BE 93)

The only reason I think Yeo is a hold is that the Panthers have a short turnaround and Yeo may not have had time to pass the concussion return protocol. CTW should be easier to cover than either half position and it’s likely he’ll only be out of a week. There are similar scoring players to Johnson in the halves, but not many in Yeo’s league in CTW when he does return. If you have both Mitchell and Yeo, then you’ll probably need to sell both though.

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Hughesy
Hughesy (@hughesy)
28 days ago

ponga > brimson yes or no

Trade-a-holic
Trade-a-holic (@trade-a-holic)
28 days ago

Love your work Carlos.

kegs kings
kegs kings (@kegs-kings)
28 days ago

Well played Carlos
Sj to Brimson
Talaki to To’o
Rudolph to Kelly next week for me.

CSI
CSI (@csi)
27 days ago

Who is best for my H to H final for SJ Munster or Brimson carnt decide need help please

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