Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 15

Christmas appeared to have come early this week for Supercoaches with the Super Trade Round accidentally being triggered a week early. It was very disappointing to see it rolled back shortly after, as it means another week with Charlie Staines sitting on my bench causing me auto emergency nightmares.

So sadly, we have another week to completely remove the deadwood from our teams. A good use of trades this week is to cash out one or two players and build up a bank for multiple guns next week. J

Best call – BUY Alex Johnston (124). Still a good buy this week even at a $90k premium, he could match that score against the Broncos.

Worst call – HOLD Jason Saab (26). His scores have been ordinary without Tom Trbojevic in the side, and that continued last week. Thankfully, Turbo is back this round (touchwood).

BUY

Cody Walker ($542,200 5/8 – 76 last round, Average: 68.7, Breakeven 43)

Alex Johnston ($554,100 CTW|FLB – 124, Avg: 64.9, BE -71)

One of the few times this season I’ll list a buy multiple weeks in a row. If you somehow missed out on either of them last week, say by getting on the bears and forgetting when lockout was, then you have another chance. They’re both playing the Broncos this week, with the Tigers, Cowboys, Bulldogs, Warriors and Dragons following. Time to load up on Bunnies. Johnston is a bigger priority given his huge negative breakeven, but ideally, you’ll want both this round and for the next month at least.

Shaun Johnson ($495,500 HFB|5/8 – 79, Avg: 52.8, BE 35)

For someone coming off a serious Achilles injury, Johnson looks like he hasn’t missed a step and is as effective as ever with the ball. Like Souths, Cronulla have a beautiful draw coming up, as well as covering Round 17. Johnson could be the perfect third or fourth half for the run home with his dual position status as well.

Tohu Harris ($597,800 2RF – 57, Avg: 75.8, BE 108)

Most of us probably spend too much time trying to min/max players prices and not worry enough about putting points on the board, and Harris could put plenty on as the Warriors face the Knights. Yes, Harris has a triple figure BE but even if he scores 65 points this week, he’ll only lose 30k. For someone with a five-round average of 71 and a season average of 76, under $600k is a bargain for one of the most consistent Supercoach players in history.  

Greg Marzhew ($173,700 CTW – 64, Avg: 73.0, BE -81)

A legitimate cash out this week, as he looks to have secured his position on merit, at least until Corey Thompson returns from injury. The only negative is that the Titans play in the last game of the week and Anthony Don is sitting there in the reserves. He won’t play Round 17 but being base priced and certain of some big upcoming price rises far outweigh that.

Siosifa Talakai ($369,200 CTW|2RF – 34, Avg: 30.5, BE 80)

There’s no rush to bring in Talakai, especially with Teig Wilton on the bench who filled in for Wade Graham earlier in the season. However after Round 11 in 2020, in eight games where he played at least 60 minutes he averaged 73 points. At $370k it’s very tempting to bring him in as a CTW straight away. Probably safer to have a look this round and see how the bench rotation unfolds, but the pedigree is there when he starts.

Jake Averillo ($411,600 CTW|5/8 – 101, Avg: 46.4, BE 4)

The scent of chasing last week’s point is in the air, but at $400k with a low break even there’s not a lot of risk here. Averillo did score 58 against the Eels earlier in the season and also dropped 69 on them in 2020. One for the POD chasers at 5% ownership.

SELL

Daine Laurie ($519,800 CTW|FLB – 21, Avg: 58.9, BE 119)

The run for one of 2021’s best cash cows looks to have ended. With that 9 in his scores for the next few weeks, and upcoming games against Melbourne and Souths, it’s the perfect time to cash Laurie out to the likes of Marzhew or Joseph Suaallii.

Charlie Staines ($408,000 CTW – 20, Avg: 43.3, BE 106)

One more week for me. The rest of you should punt the Forbes Fiat ASAP.

Adam Doueihi ($556,800 5/8|FLB – 9, Avg: 68.8, BE 154)

If you didn’t trade him out last week, as I suggested, then he has to go this week. He hasn’t been named due to a head knock so you won’t lose any cash, but $550k can go a long way right now.

Viliame Kikau ($377,300 2RF – 43, Avg: 53.3, BE 49)

Hasn’t broken 50 in his last three games and hasn’t scored more than 60 since Round four. Fast becoming a myth. For owners he is out with an ankle injury and at least won’t lose any cash this week.

Bradman Best ($375,800 CTW – 30, Avg: 49.0, BE 94)

The Knights appear to be cursed this season, with Best going down again. This time it’s a dreaded syndesmosis injury, with surgery keeping him out 6-8 weeks.

HOLD

Nicho Hynes ($886,400 CTW|FLB – 87, Avg: 83.0, BE 171)

That break even is scary, but they’re playing the Tigers and Hynes hasn’t had a bad score since taking over at fullback. His three and five round averages are still in triple figures and should be held until Papenhuyzen returns. He’d be a legitimate captain option this week if it weren’t for the return of Tom Trbojevic playing the Titans.

Josh Schuster ($476,000 5/8 – 0, Avg: 64.4, BE 44)

The Sea Eagles edge hasn’t been named this week, which will be disappointing for owners looking for a quick recovery from a calf issue. If he’s your only option to get Cody Walker this week then you’d have to seriously consider it, otherwise he’s worth holding as strong player for Round 17.

David Nofoaluma ($460,900 CTW – 26, Avg: 57.6, BE 118)

Nofo has been in a funk lately, with a three-round average of 39.7, including back-to-back scores in the 20s. And as noted with Laurie, the Tigers are playing Melbourne and Souths in the next two rounds. That’s not promising, but you can’t sell everyone this week and he could be useful for the run home with two games against the Bulldogs.

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kylo klokstad
kylo klokstad (@kylo)
1 month ago

Thanks as always Carlos

A bit of a worry when you have more than 2 players in the “Sell” list but I mean what could go wrong… right?

AJW
AJW (@ajw)
1 month ago

Thanks Carlos – very comforted by the fact you have Marzhew on the buy list, as I have prepared my ‘Super trade round’ (over next 2 weeks) by getting in D Fifi + Marzhew by selling Laurie + JFH. I guess if Marzhew stays in the team, then he’ll put up some good scores till the end of the season, and if he is replaced, then it’s only 173.8k, he could be a great late season replacement just sitting there on the bench, and it facilitates next round (I got 166k change from the deal, so I’m seeing it as… Read more »

kegs kings
kegs kings (@kegs-kings)
1 month ago

Great write up again. Is Watson to cook ok this week in your opinion

AJW
AJW (@ajw)
Reply to  kegs kings
1 month ago

I think that’s a good move too – essentially getting a huge discount on a gun, who should improve his running game after Origin. Good on you mate! 🙂

Sorjas
Sorjas (@sorjas)
1 month ago

Thanks Carlos. A small correction Dane Laurie doesn’t have a 9 in his average rather a massive 21! that was Doueihi.

Still will lose large $ and is a sell.

JS1999
JS1999 (@js1999)
1 month ago

Thoughts on Cleary to SJ?
SJ should outscore on points over the Origin period, gives couple hundred to bank and with AJ and Marzhew, $ shouldn’t be any issue to upgrade Gamble back to Cleary come round 18/19

The Duke
The Duke (@the-duke)
1 month ago

Thanks for the write up Carlos. I have the strange dichotomy of wanting to trade big next round but only having 11 trades left.

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