Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 12
With just one game left before the first bye week, a couple of injuries may force your hand with trades this week. There are a couple of sub-$300k cheapies attracting plenty of interest but depending on your position on the overall ladder and how many trades you’ve burned through, you may have to decide between banking points by trading in some guns (exactly what I’m doing) or banking on future value increases by bringing in these cheapies.
As a helpful reminder (thanks @antonio-bandarisis from Lakey’s team’s analysis comments section), this is what the bye weeks (rounds 13, 16 and 19) will look like for scoring in 2023:
In these rounds, you’ll score from your best 13 players only in any position, from your selected, on-field Starting 17. You’ll still need to ensure that your best available players are in your starting 17 line-up.
During these rounds, you’ll simply need to manage your team as you normally would – select, trade and set your best Starting 17 with as many ‘non-bye’ players as possible. Remember, it’s the Best 13 from your Starting 17, and does not include any remaining players on your bench as per any other week.
If you end up with less than 13 scoring players on your selected Starting 17, but you have unselected players your bench who actually play, the usual automatic emergency rule will apply (i.e. you’ll receive the score of your lowest-scoring player on your bench).
And for those who’ve asked – unfortunately we’ve been MIA from the podcasts the last couple of weeks with some work commitments (my flight was also sat on the Cairns Airport tarmac for 2 hours last night preventing me from getting home – as much as I love being in FNQ, I don’t really want to spend it there given alcohol supply isn’t allowed while on the ground…) but will be back from next week 🙂
Hudson Young – $638,000 – 2RF – BE 43
Young has been better than solid since R3 – dipping below 60 points just once in eight games (55). These scores are boosted by the more-than-occasional try, but Young’s career record (29 tries in 83 games) shows it’s not a surprise stat. Canberra’s form turnaround has been largely on the back of players like Young, and what he lacks in base stats compared to his 2RF counterparts, he more than makes up for in offloads and busts. Solid bye coverage and a dependable number for the next few months.
Billy Smith – $289,500 – CTW – BE -62
He’s been a shining light in a very dull Roosters side over the last fortnight and with the Manu and Sam Walker injury news, should have a spot for at least a couple more rounds (although both Walker and Manu are due back in R14 at best so may only be one game until they provide somewhat of a headache). He’s definitely doing enough to make it his own longer-term. A massive cash grab if you need and in a small sample size, proving a handy play if you were desperate for CTWs. Beware the third week for a centre who’s killed it for a couple of games in a row, but it doesn’t really matter with that BE.
Joe Tapine – $619,400 – 2RF / FRF – BE 58
We’re all waiting for the explosive Tapine game of 2022 and it looks like it’s getting closer, with last week’s 70 from 51 minutes his best output of the year. The offload has slowly crept back more regularly which it needs to given his minutes don’t appear to be moving anywhere, with only one game above 56 minutes all year. Despite all the negativity, Tapine is still churning out very respectable scores and has a run featuring Manly, Souths (Origin-affected) and the Tigers in his next three games. Worth jumping on now but that price isn’t really going anywhere if you have other issues to solve.
Jeremy Marshall-King – $680,700 – HOK – BE 63
JMK has firmly placed himself at the top end of the hooking department so far this season. He’s the 2nd highest averaging in the position and has been raining attacking stats. At just 5% owned he should be a huge target for those with the likes of Grant and Cook in the position who will miss time for Origin, as he plays 8 of the next 9 games and hasn’t looked like slowing down at all. He has had one ‘poor’ game this season where he scored 33 courtesy of a sinbin. Outside of that, he’s one of the most improved players in the competition and it’s translating into solid SuperCoach points.
Reuben Garrick – $576,100 – CTW/FLB – BE 5
Like last week, as good a time as any to jump on a fallen gun.
Josh Schuster – $271,200 – 5/8 / 2RF – BE 36
Schuster gets his first game in quite a while and at this point if you’ve held onto him, you might as well see if it’ll lead to anything. Has shed some weight in a bid to get fit so hopefully that’s a sign the attitude has taken a shift for the better. Let’s see what he can do.
Isaiya Katoa – $383,500 – HFB / 5/8 – BE 26
Katoa has been used as a stepping stone to the likes of Dylan Brown in the last few weeks but if you already have a couple of quality halves, now’s probably a good time to hang onto Katoa who will provide the same handy coverage that JMK will above. Looking like he’s building with confidence each week.
James Tedesco – $557,100 – FLB – BE 82
Those still playing the game and hanging onto Teddy will be frustrated but if there’s ever a time where Teddy is likely to go big, it’s this week. Coming up against a Dragons side who are in all sorts, having his NSW fullback spot challenged (to a degree) for the first time in years and playing for a side that would also not have been embarrassed like they have been for a long time. No Manu this week should also help force his hand to get involved. All the makings for a Teddy ton, which would be his first of the year.
Joseph Manu – $639,100 – CTW / 5/8 – BE 78
Manu’s injury isn’t as bad as first thought with the gun now likely to only miss one game (with next week’s bye), but carrying a leg injury in a poor team at such a high price isn’t usually a recipe for success in SuperCoach. If you’ve burned plenty of trades so far this season, he wouldn’t be a terrible hold, but for the cash and the important next two rounds, is one worth moving on from (at least temporarily). Does now have the flexibility of 5/8 if you need to shift him around as well.
Zac Hosking – $547,400 – 2RF – BE 74
Hosking’s HIA last week came at a very unfortunate time, with Scott Sorensen proceeding to score a ridiculous ton as the Panthers ran rampant over the Roosters rabble. Liam Martin came back last week and gets another go on the bench this week, and the shootout between Sorensen and Hosking to retain the starting spot once Martin is back to full health might have been won last week. Penrith only play the one bye week (16) so Origin duties for Martin aren’t likely to lead to much of a boost for Hosking anyway. All that said – he’s been a reasonable servant but the time looks just about up here.
Paul Alamoti – $355,400 – CTW – BE 19
Alamoti finally broke through last week as the Dogs put on a few points against the Warriors but despite a reasonable breakeven, now’s not the worst time to move on from him if you have to squeeze in Billy Smith. I’d be keeping someone like Turuva (or even that f’n Will Warbrick) over him if you had to.
Jacob Preston – $563,900 – 2RF – BE 38
Preston’s now just had one score above 60 since Round 5 and has probably reached his peak, despite flashes of attacking brilliance throughout the year. The Dogs as a side aren’t providing a wealth of opportunities in the red zone but his solid base game has kept him afloat from a value perspective. The jump up from him to a more experienced SuperCoach forward with pedigree in the game (e.g. Young) is an easy one as a result. Misses both round 13 and round 17 coming up.
Thanks Justin! Manu and Alamoti out for me with Smith and H. Edwards coming in. Which brings me to my point – thoughts on Edwards? Missed the first rise but with a big BE seems a decent option to jump on still
Don’t mind Edwards if you’ve got a good 13 for round 13 already. Dragons, Roosters, Cows and Knights in the next month or so and plays R16. Went pretty solidly last Origin period as well. One to consider for R14 definitely!
Nice work, Justin (as usual), but isn’t Hudson Young an Origin risk?
Thanks mate, good call. In fairness in my mind I had Matto, Crichton, Martin and Murray ahead of him for spots (without having given you NSWmen much thought) but looks like there’s a fair bit of smoke about his chances. Might have jumped the gun early on him 🙂
We’re all speculating at this stage, mate. 🙂
There is the best team for NSW in 2023, and then there is Freddys team. Not always the same picked. He is by far and away the best left edge in NSW this year, and he finished off 2022 as top 3 also, should have went on WC tour.
I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t start, only other option there is Martin but he would be better coming off the bench
100% mate. Hynes not being picked in the halves will pay testament to this. Just madness and finding ways to lose at the selection table as usual for Freddy and a lot of nsw coaches before him. I find it increasingly difficult to get behind the blues every year as much as my heart bleeds blue, it’s actually easier being a Dragons supporter right now. Hynes should be picked over Luai alone on the fact that he’s not torn and distracted by his pacific nations allegiances and should be picked even over Cleary on form and Cleary’s losing form in… Read more »
I have no drama if they want to go Luai, but they must have Nico as the 14. If he isn’t getting the job done, Nico has to come on.
If they run 2 hookers, Freddy may as well start looking for a new job.
Haas, Paulo, Jurbo, Young, Martin, Yeo and Murray, plus one more forward
One more forward with mongrel would be good
Hudson Young will be the first choice edge for NSW this year. He will miss a few games coming up.
I would have Burbo up on the buy list too.
It is via the Tuilagi injury, but I see it as he has 6 weeks to earn that edge spot for the rest of the year. At $230k I am prepared to take that risk, good bye coverage which is when you will use him.
Just the way he did that quick tip on off Turbo to Garrick, he has upside on that edge if he can get make them plays. Hopefully Shoey can help if he plays to his ability.
Just beware Condon on the bench.
I don’t see him as a threat to taking the starting role off him, has to triple his mins as a minimum off his ave of 20 if he keeps it.
At that price it’s low risk with good upside I believe
I must admit Burbo looked good last match.
Wouldn’t be a SuperCoach year if Burbo didn’t make his way into our sides at some stage! Interested to see how they use him this week but agree he’s a pretty risk-free play with the starting role at that price
So if I have to get bula do I drop turbo? I guess turbo will play origin, thoughts please?
Turbo is no guarantee of playing Origin apparently. Food for thought.
On current form with the injury he must be carrying he would be lucky to be selected by Manly on form, He would be a brave Origin selection. He has been eating dust chasing second rowers. I am holding for now but not playing him this week. I hope he plays R13 but would not be surprised if he were rested to recover if not selected.
I think Bula will level out in price over the next few weeks so not sure the value is there to warrant the trade. Turbo a hold this week and re-assess based on Origin teams next week is my view
Hey there JT – been missing in action myself mate! Unfortunately real life takes over sometimes! For me it’s been professional obligations eating into my valuable Supercoach time (which then eats into my valuable other time!): Oscar Wilde so wisely summed up the situation so well when he said, ‘Work is the curse of the drinking classes! Personally I’m taking out Manu + Hosking to bring in BBBBBilly Smith, as well as my bye period consolidation trade of C Lemuelu! (Wanted to bring in Luki last week, but was persuaded by folk not to do it, so reversed the trade,… Read more »
Hope I haven’t steered you the wrong way then with Manu and Hosking! As always I throw a shilling or two on them to cross the stripe as an insurance policy 🙂 Smart man that Oscar Wilde…All the best with this week and beyond my friend!
No worries JT! By the way, have just reversed and traded back in Manu (used Turuva to do it!) – I figure he’s either a champion for rounds 14, 15 etc, or like putting your money into property rather than ITB – I can sell him another time when we get more solid news on his injury. But you know, there’s more than one way to skin a rooster! Hahaha – best of luck in the Leichhardt clash matie! 😉
I’d be worried about Hudson Young getting picked for the Blues.
Good call – I’m keen on him but given how many trades I’ve burned through, might not be able to take the risk he gets named
As a Tedesco owner, I will be holding until the earth falls apart. And if he continues to have a bad year, then he will go in the “never again” pile. These are the rules of supercoach which you must follow if you want to succeed (in keeping your sanity).
I would still sell over origin mate, no point holding as even in years he has gone well previously, the wheels come off over origin a bit.
Tend to agree but I’d be looking at this week as the test – another underwhelming effort (when there’s plenty to suggest he should be going large) and I’d be moving on
I was trying to decide who to sell for Tapine. Tossing up between Keppie and Murray. Thanks to your advice, I’ve selling Preston. Has done a great job, but time to go.
Changed my mind, went for Nikora instead. Maybe Murray to Taps next week.