Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 11

This week was another example of why you never loop.

Wenin discussed his experience with it in the Teams Analysis yesterday, and I’ll share my own. I was sitting with the VC on Tom Trbojevic (119), with Tyson Gamble (8) as my auto emergency, with the C sitting on Nathan Cleary. Had I moved it off Cleary, I’d have netted 471.

The single figure score from Gamble concerned me, so I left Tino Fa’asuamaleaui as my last player and kept the armband on Cleary. This resulted in 625 points, an extra 154 points for not taking the loop, which is huge considering that there’s about 150 points between 2000th and 4000th.

There’s no must have buys this week, so it would be a great time to hold a trade if your team isn’t a complete dumpster fire after all of the suspensions and injuries.

Best Call – HOLD Adam Doueihi (114). He’s been a fantastic POD and looks likely to accrue points no matter where he plays.

Worst Call – BUY Tyson Gamble (8). Hopefully he’s like last week’s worst call, Keaon Koloamatangi, who bounced back from 36 against the Storm with a try and 70 points against Cronulla. Gamble is playing the Roosters however.

BUY

Nicho Hynes ($582,000 CTW|FLB – 182 last round, Average: 67.8, Breakeven -65)

Yes, I know this reeks of chasing last week’s points, and it does. But there’s plenty of reasons why Hynes is still worth a buy this week even at an inflated price, and it has nothing to do with his scores. Although he is averaging 99.6 in five games where he’s played more than 69 minutes, and even more impressive 79 if you take out last weekend’s explosion. Most of this applies only to overall players, so head to head owners may not have as much interest.

It’s all about job security. Ryan Papenhuyzen apparently hasn’t even started concussion protocols as of Tuesday, meaning Hynes has secured another 80 minutes in the #1 jersey. The Storm play Thursday night in Round 12 against Brisbane, meaning there’s every chance Papenhuyzen could miss that game as well. And he’ll play 80 again in Round 13 with Melbourne players off on Origin duty. It’s also highly likely Bellamy will rest some players post Game 1, although the Storm do play on Sunday that Round against the Warriors.

Hynes is likely to have a massive breakeven by 13 as the 182 moves out of his rolling average, but with some scores in the 60-70 range he’ll likely still be around $650-700k meaning you won’t lose too much cash. And the Melbourne draw is the cherry on top – Canberra, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Warriors and Tigers in their next five.

James Fisher-Harris ($558,700 FRF|2RF – 98, Avg: 68.0, BE 22)

Fisher-Harris has been incredibly consistent this season and over the past two weeks has smashed out scores of 84 and 98 with points per minute in the 2.0 range. His minutes have been down slightly but he has the third best season average for FRF, and one of the few in the top 10 who are available for Round 13.

James Tedesco ($526,000 FLB – 131, Avg: 80.0, BE 7)

His ownership has dropped dramatically over the past month along with his scores and price. The turnaround started last weekend and his price has bottomed out at a discount of over $300k from the start of the season. At 27% ownership there’s plenty of teams that don’t have him and this is the best chance to fix that.

Kenny Bromwich ($369,800 2RF – 89, Avg: 47.9, BE 3)

Speaking of bottoming out, here’s another player at rock bottom price that will cover round 13 and has a favourable draw looming. His attacking stats have dried up this season, as Bromwich snared his first try on the weekend and only had two try assists prior to that in Rounds 1 and 5. If he can pick up some more over the next few weeks he could be a bargain at $370k and 2% ownership. He did average almost 78 points over the four games from Rounds 10 to 13 in 2020, but there were no bye weeks last season so the numbers aren’t completely comparable.

Martin Taupau ($561,400 FRF – 94, Avg: 65.2, BE 42)

Played a season high 57 minutes and turned back the clock with 94 points against the Broncos. He’s unlikely to match that against the Eels this weekend, but he’s been hovering in the mid-50’s range for base and power stats this season which is a good floor for a front rower. Taupau’s previous two outings had 14 and 16 points each from offloads as well, after not having a game higher than 10 all season. He doesn’t cover Round 13 which may point to a better head to head buy, but Josh Papalii owners will need somewhere to move to. And at 2.2% ownership he’s a huge point of difference.

SELL

Ryan Papenhuyzen ($815,100 FLB – 23, Avg: 101.7, BE 195)

It looked like the perfect time to bring him back after a shoulder injury, or if you held him through that it could have been a great move. Unfortunately, a high shot ended his game after just 14 minutes, in which he’d already managed to score 23 points. That score could have been anything, thoughts and prayers to those who captained him. Now facing at least week on the sidelines following that head knock, the possibility of him playing Origin and a ridiculously high break even, he has to be sold. The combination of James Tedesco and Tom Trbojevic is too powerful right now, and the last thing you want to be doing is chasing points at other positions. Turbo is practically a straight swap and Teddy will save you a bit of coin to use elsewhere. If you do hold you’re committing for the rest of the season because he may shed almost $200k in the next month depending on his scores.

Josh Papalii ($518,600 FRF – 32, Avg: 59.2, BE 78)

One of the biggest casualties from the high shot crackdown, as he was sent from the field after playing just 31 minutes. He’ll now miss the next three games (including Origin game 1) and there’s no reason to hold him. The Raiders have been underperforming, especially in second halves and even without the suspension his minutes had drifted into the low 40s.

Sio Siua Taukieaho ($445,300 FRF – 24, Avg: 56.8, BE 88)

He may be worth holding this round for the matchup against the Broncos but even after a fast open against the Cowboys he still only played 35 minutes for just 24 points. There’s plenty of other options in the front row this season that are providing better output for similar dollars – Luke Thompson is only $60k more and is averaging 10 points a game more. The lure of TKO just isn’t there if he’s not kicking.

Josh Schuster ($475,900 2RF – 57, Avg: 63.0, BE 74)

With Manly facing a white hot Parramatta this weekend at Bankwest, you’d be a brave owner who expects Schuster to hit his break even. He wasn’t looking likely to do so against the struggling Broncos before barging over for a try in the 72nd minute. His price has peaked and he’s not going to provide any bye coverage, moving him out for Cody Walker or Jarome Luai looks to be the smart move.

HOLD

Josh Curran ($389,800 2RF – 64, Avg: 63.8, BE 21)

Curran was having an incredible game against the Eels playing in the middle of the field, even if the Warriors were getting annihilated. Unfortunately, he went off injured in the second half and is likely to miss 2-4 weeks. His 64 came in just 33 minutes, with a PPM of 1.9. That did include a try, but his base stats were 36 in that 33 minutes, which is still a PPM over 1.0. He’s been putting up keeper numbers all season and still has plenty of cash to be made. If you have the ability to cover him then he’s a hold, as he should be back by Round 14 and will be an important player for the Round 17 bye week.

Isaiah Papali’I ($773,900 2RF|FRF – 52, Avg: 86.4, BE 134)

His incredible run of scores was never sustainable, and without any attacking scores his floor was always going to be in the low 50s. What hurt more is the drop to 59 minutes, his lowest since Round 7 and only the second time since Round 2 that he’d played fewer than 69 minutes. If he’s not on the field it’s going to be hard for him to build a good score, and the Eels incredible backrow depth hurts him in this regard. Still he will cover Round 13 and the Eels draw means he’s a hold until at least Round 16 when they face the Panthers.

Tyrone Peachey ($510,800 2RF|CTW – 27, Avg: 60.4, BE 112)

Another victim of the high shot crackdown, with Peachey set to miss two rounds. For overall players, that’s a small bit of luck because he will be back for their Round 13 clash against Melbourne. Head to head players may want to cut bait this week but possibly have bigger issues. It’s not too much of a stretch to cover him with someone like Charlie Staines or Bailey Simonsson if you still have them and save the trade for later in the season.

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The Duke
The Duke (@the-duke)
27 days ago

Thanks for the write up, height impoverished one. It sucks trading out TKO but he’s not kicking and isn’t starting.

DrewyPOD
DrewyPOD (@keckers1)
27 days ago

Thanks for the write up!

Any consideration of Matt Burton as a buy? POD alternative to other “Schuster sells” and is a premium round 13 option. Thoughts?

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