The perils of trying to get some of your writing out of the way on a Monday night. This article is missing a good chunk of text about how Cameron Smith was a sell due to missing two of the next three and three of the next seven due to Origin and suspension. On the positive side, Round 17 is now looking slightly better for fielding a decent team and Smith is a definite hold if you have numbers this week.
The other bonus to this is that there will end up being many coaches who won’t have made a trade at hooker for the whole season if Damian Cook and Smith stay healthy. And those who started with Siliva Havili will be able to jump to Smith shortly and be set for the rest of the season (assuming you already have Cook).
It’s really a win/win scenario for everyone other than Queenslanders, and Smith also gets to go out on his own terms instead of retiring after losing a series.
Best Call – BUY Lachlan Fitzgibbon. Looking like a genuine keeper with very low ownership.
Worst Call – BUY Cody Walker. The run of consistent 50-60 point games has sadly come to an end, but for non-owners he will be a little bit cheaper for Round 13.
Rhyse Martin ($164,400 2RF – 51 last round, AVG: 65.0, Breakeven -74)
The best downgrade of the season is here, lets just hope he doesn’t get injured or turn up late for training and end up ruined like the other options we’ve had so far. A must have for one of your trades this week.
Adam Reynolds ($511,500 HLF – 72, AVG: 53.1, BE 16)
After a string of games in the low 50s, Reynolds has found some Supercoach form on the back of Souths looking like the Souths of 2014. His three round average trails only Shaun Johnson among halfbacks at 70.3 and is owned by just 1.3% of teams currently. He’s unlikely to play Origin which makes him great cover for the first bye and slightly ahead of Daly Cherry-Evans as he’s guaranteed to be kicking goals if (and what a massive if this is given his history) he is healthy.
Lachlan Fitzgibbon ($576,100 2RF – 83, AVG: 64.7, BE 25)
Has the lowest ownership of anyone inside the top 20 overall players (who have played at least three games) by average with just 3.5% ownership. The only other players inside the top 20 with less than 10% are Euan Aitken (9.4%) and Nathan Brown (7.1%). Fitzgibbon currently ranks sixth among second rowers with an average a hair under 65. Whilst he might have the lowest base of those top six and relies on attacking stats for his scores, how many weeks before we accept that those attacking stats are the norm and not an anomaly? Somehow still not even in the top 10 traded in players this week, you’re not going to find a bigger POD this season. Did I mention the Knights play the Gold Coast this week and have a ridiculous run of games at home coming up? The only thing I can think of that is remotely negative about him is that you only have six spots for backrowers and you can’t fit everyone in. Just keep your fingers crossed that Kalyn Ponga doesn’t play Origin.
Apisai Koroisau ($473,100 HOK – 85, AVG: 59.0, BE 11)
Koroisau’s return to form is great timing for owners looking to cash out Mitch Rein or Siliva Havili. He’s currently under priced by about $50k and a Smith-less Melbourne this week isn’t as daunting an opponent. Given the form of Damian Cook and Cameron McInnes he’s highly unlikely to be in the Blues squad and come Round 14 he could be a straight swap for Cameron Smith.
Daniel Alvaro ($491,000 FRF – 63, AVG: 53.1, BE 55)
Managed 63 with a whopping 1.6PPM last week against the Dogs without any attacking stats before coming off with for a HIA. The concern with Alvaro has always been minute related and when he has played over 50 minutes this season he’s averaged 57. Whilst that doesn’t sound like much, only three pure front rowers are averaging at 57 or more this year, and that would still place him eighth among all front rowers (including duals). Alvaro is also second in front rowers for base stats per game at 53, only trailing Andrew Fifita. He doesn’t have a high ceiling, but you can lock him in for a very safe base of 50-55 points each game over the next month when he’ll also cover Round 13.
Mitch Rein ($461,100 HOK – 42, AVG: 40.2, BE 64)
Nathan Peats has been named this week which pushes Rein back to the bench. If you traded him in at the right time you’ve earned nearly $200k, but he should be sold this week as he’ll be back to the mid 20 scores he was producing early in the season when Peats was fit.
James Maloney ($547,200 5/8 – 62, AVG: 56.0, BE 81)
He might be keeping the kicking duties for now, but the return of Nathan Cleary means the end of his run. Maloney has stated he’s willing to hand over the kicking tee to Cleary if he asks. He’s an easy trade to Reynolds, Walker or DCE if you want need bye coverage, or around $50k to Gareth Widdop.
Siliva Havili ($441,900 HOK – 49 AVG: 49.0 BE 44)
Havili has increased by a massive $260k this season, and it’s time to cash out as the 78 moves out of his rolling average next week. As mentioned above, trading Havili to Koroisau as a bridge to Smith in Round 14 looks like a great option. Otherwise you could hold this week and go directly to Smith for $80k next week which would have sounded absurd at the start of the season.
Ryley Jacks ($316,400 HLF|5/8 – 12, AVG: 42.2, BE 77)
Jacks has scored a total of just 31 points in the last two weeks. Granted he did miss the second half against the Titans on the weekend with a head knock, but the round before that was 51 which included two tries. With Smith out he could move up from fourth playmaker to third but he’s leaking cash everywhere and needs to be sold. The downside is that if you don’t have the cash for an upgrade though there’s mostly traps available unless you have the cash for Connor Watson.
Jack De Belin ($537,100 2RF – 35, AVG: 55.6, BE 85)
Paul Vaughan ($475,200 FRF – 50, AVG: 52.6, BE 72)
Both Dragons forwards have been disappointing from a Supercoach perspective this year. De Belin’s work rate had picked back up after some low PPM games in the first month, but only played 30 minutes after picking up a rib injury. Vaughan has been steady but unspectacular, averaging just 4.4 in attacking stats this year from just two tries and a single line break. Both are likely to be parts of the New South Wales Origin team and will miss both Round 13 and Round 17 which means they must be sold. If you’re playing Head to Head then you could hold either but there are better options – Vaughan ranks 9th among front row options and JDB is 19th among backrowers.
Scott Sorensen ($231,600 2RF – 0, AVG: 44.3, BE 26)
A hand fracture is likely to prevent him suiting up for Round 13 even if you assume Luke Lewis wouldn’t be fit by then. The easiest option to move for Martin this week with many coaches needing another warm body to fill their 17.
Cameron Smith ($523,100 HOK – 64, AVG: 56.3, BE 84)
Funny how 24 hours can change things. Missing two of the next three and a very non-keeper average of 56 had Smith listed as a sell Tuesday morning. Now he’s retired from representative matches he will be a very important part of your Round 17 side, and the break he’ll get over the Origin period should keep him fresh for the run home.
Slade Griffin ($408,000 2RF|HOK – 18, AVG: 45.4, BE 74)
Griffin is still named to start this week but only played 31 minutes last week with Danny Levi playing the rest of the game. He has only scored 43, 28 and 18 in games where Levi has played which is troubling. He is worth holding this week as the Knights play the Titans and to get another look at his minutes. A move to Koroisau or Martin would be handy for H2H players.
Cameron Murray ($493,000 2RF – 48, AVG: 55.0, BE 60)
The move back to the interchange bench looked to be a huge issue for Murray but he still managed 1.1PPM in 44 minutes. Only needs a Burgess injury (likely) or suspension (very likely) to be relevant and at this stage should be held. The cash he’ll leak over the next few weeks isn’t worth a panic trade.
Villiame Kikau ($509,300 2RF|FRF – 52, AVG: 60.9, BE 56)
Luckily the Panthers play the first game this round so you can see if Hook is continuing to play silly buggers with his forwards. Kikau may have peaked in price for now but a 61 average in an ordinary front row pool this year is worth holding for another week at least. Hopefully he’s named to start despite the team list.
Raymond Faitala-Mariner ($526,300 2RF – 58, AVG: 61.3, BE 67)
Wacko has stated RFM is in some doubt due to a knee injury and will need to pass a fitness test to play. If you’re short on numbers, you may want to sell considering he’ll miss the first bye but he’s still in the top 10 for backrowers averaging over 60 and will be a handy number for Round 17.
James Fisher-Harris ($439,000 2RF – 52, AVG: 49.4, BE 45)
Averaging 48 in base over the past four rounds, surely the attacking stats are due? His 56 minutes last round are a concern though. Even as a hold it’s only for one more week as he faces the Dragons in Round 12 who allow a stingy 0.6PPM to his position and he’ll miss the Round 13.
Anthony Milford ($481,400 5/8 – 51, AVG: 49.8, BE 57)
The clock is ticking on Milford as his run of games at Suncorp ends in two weeks after facing the Eels and Roosters. He’s not running the ball as much, has a three-round average of just 45.3 and has to go in the next few weeks. The good news is that Widdop has two more weeks of high break evens and trading up to him might only require an extra $100k
AJ Brimson ($164,600 HLF|5/8 – 30, AVG: 30.0, BE -4)
Trent Hodkinson ($281,400 HLF – 0, AVG: 22.3, BE 41)
Brock Lamb ($276,300 HLF|5/8 – 65, AVG: 23.0, BE 11)
The halves are full of awkwardly priced traps this week. AJ Brimson is only playing his second game and Karl Lawton looks to be irrelevant with Isaac Luke named at hooker.
Lamb did score 65 on the weekend but averaged 20.3 in his previous four full games before being dropped for Jack Cogger. He did average nearly 49 a game last season though, and the low scores this season were from playing alongside Mitchell Pearce. The Knights play the Titans this week who do let in some big scores to halves, but the same was said for Jacks last week and that turned out poorly. Even a 45 average only gets him to $350k after covering Round 13 and then you need to trade him out, is that really worth two trades? Taking a $30k hit on Jacks might be the best option in that case.
Hokko could another option if he takes the kicking duties from Daly Cherry-Evans, but hasn’t really been Supercoach relevant lately, averaging 38 in his past two seasons with the Knights and just 22 so far this season in four games with the Sharks.
If you desperately need to dump Jacks this week and are cash strapped then Lamb is probably the best of an average bunch, but if you’ve held Lachlan Croker until now then you could wait to see how Hodkinson performs and if he kicks goals this weekend. At least then you have another week to see if Brimson holds his spot.