Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 11
With the byes not far off, it’s worth considering how you’re stacked for numbers over the next few months. If you’ve got coverage over these tough weeks and your side doesn’t have any burning fires, this week might not be a bad one to save a trade or two. Valynce Te Whare is the number one trade in at the moment, but you can definitely afford to wait here given his bye and the fact he’s only played one game and was an injury fill-in for Brenko Lee. Still, plenty of guns on the radar though for those (like me) who need some urgent class injections.
Reuben Garrick – $540,800 – CTW / FLB – BE 48
Plenty are looking the way of Alex Johnston this round but I think you can wait on him another week against an improved Tigers outfit and a decent breakeven (definite look for next week though). Garrick has shed $200k from his initial pricetag and looked much better back in his usual spot on the wing last week with Parker and Koula now back there. Manly have been very flat but with a good stretch of opponents, Garrick taking the goalkicking and fullback spots (should Turbo be selected for Origin – either way not a bad result for Garrick) and a bottomed-out price means a great chance to snap up a gun this week. The Sharks leaked plenty of points last week and come up against Manly at Brooky with Turbo on notice for a massive Origin statement game.
Jahream Bula – $282,700 – FLB – BE -32
Ignore the $80k premium you’re paying if you didn’t get him last week, Bula has been immense for the Tigers since coming in. Watching him live at the ground (as a non-owner) last round and his presence was everywhere in attack. He has taken a massive 51 hitups in his first three games and looks hungry for the ball. Faces a much tougher prospect this week with the Rabbitohs and won’t play the R13 bye so aim to have some fullback cover if you can (Gutho a good choice). Regardless, he looks like he has plenty more points and value in him over the next few months and back-to-back wins should ensure there’s no more random tinkering of this backline for a little while.
Jack de Belin – $597,100 – 2RF / FRF – BE 22
JDB has hit a very good patch of form, finding plenty of involvement in big minutes shifting time between both lock and prop lately and averaging 76 minutes in all games where he’s started. His good base workrate (and just two penalties conceded and no errors all year), combined with the occasional offload and bust, are doing enough to prop up these scores. The Dragons are a shambles at the moment but they will play seven of the next eight weeks including the R13 bye. Dual flexibility and SuperCoach pedigree should give you a good mid-season forward buy here.
Dylan Brown – $750,500 – 5/8 – BE 6
If you haven’t already jumped on, it may have cost you $100k in the last couple of weeks, but ignore that. Brown was chugging along with some middling scores at the start of the year but has really burst into life with back-to-back tons in recent weeks as the Eels have piled on the points. We know how good the Eels’ bye stretch is, so it’s still a good time to jump aboard.
Lachlan Miller – $674,900 – CTW / FLB – BE 79
Miller’s scores have been too massive to ignore this season despite a couple of low games in losses recently (32 v Penrith in a grind and 45 v Parra in a game they were never in). He drops below $700k for the first time since R4 and now has a 3-game stretch that includes the first bye with the Titans, Sharks and Manly who have conceded plenty of points at stages through the year. The Knights should be feeling tremendous after a well-earned international break so jump aboard the Miller train. Some might not like having both him and Marzhew in their sides but both have shown genuine keeper games/scores this season. Can’t hurt.
Mitchell Moses – $688,100 – HFB – BE 48
An unfortunate HIA last week will see him miss at least one round but no need to burn a trade on a guy who’s been scoring well and will provide good coverage over the mid-year.
Harry Grant – $670,700 – HOK – BE 48
Grant’s scoring has been unusually up and down this season but while he’s a definite hold for this week (he averages 93 against the Broncos), I’m definitely looking at a trade up (!) to Jeremy Marshall-King after JMK’s bye this week. JMK will play 8 of the next 9 games after R11 and Grant will be in and out of the side with Origin commitments. One or two final hurrahs would be nice before he goes. And I wonder why I run out of trades every year…
Isaiya Katoa – $383,500 – 5/8 / HFB – BE 26
See above for the Phins’ run of vital games over the middle of the season. Katoa looks to be just hitting his straps, so not sure on the move that 3k coaches have made so far this week by turfing him.
Cam Murray – $567,000 – 2RF – BE 91
Murray is still held by 31% of SuperCoaches but has really flatlined in the last month, failing to go over 50 points at all. He missed the last ten minutes of the Storm game through an HIA that led to his worst output in terms of time on the park all year (53 mins). He has run the ball more than 10 times a game just once all season (against the Broncos two weeks ago when they were steamrolling them) and isn’t offloading enough at all to make up for the lack of volume (like Fifita does). With Origin looming and Murray a near-certainty for the Blues, now’s the time to get off the ship. Tough to see him coming back into your side once you do move on at the rate he’s going.
Tyrell Sloan – $485,900 – CTW / FLB – BE 111
Well Sloan’s been a bit of a let-down, with some bizarre play over the weekend having his spot in jeopardy and now standing to lose a ton of cash with a massive breakeven. He was tearing them apart a couple of rounds ago and now barely wants to take a run. Abort mission.
Will Warbrick – $403,400 – CTW – BE 64
A decent service to our SuperCoach sides with over $200k in cash made but I’m not sure there are many out there who’ve had him in their 17s when he has occasionally scored well. A classic case of play him, he goes shit, bench him he’ll score a try. So no doubt that’ll turn into 2 tries this round for the many (myself included) who are bidding him farewell.
Paul Alamoti – $332,800 – CTW – BE 32
Similar to Warbrick above, looks to have done his dash for us in SuperCoach this season if you’re still holding on. For whatever reason just can’t kick on from the 30s/40s he seems to consistently get.
Is ford a sell
Hey buddy. He’s not if you are really short for numbers in round 13 and can cover him while he’s out. But I’m personally selling as I don’t think his up side warrants holding. Selling him for Lachie Miller and moving Bird up to 2RF. Miller plays 13 and the tricky round 16 too (good shout JT).
Unknown around his injury is a worry. But he had scored 45 in 50 mins including his sin bin before he didn’t return.
he is a safe 18th man you can play, who adds depth.
im happy to hold unless there is word of a serious injury. He will be vital over the first part of the byes
I have Katoa and Schuster at 5/8 so probably need to trade one of them. Can’t afford Brown, Munster or Walker who would you recommend as other options aside from them?
If you have Joey Manu in your side, he’s going to get 5/8 dual flexibility from next week so could be an option to switch him up there to help (if you’re willing to cop an AE this week). Only real options at the value of Schuster/Katoa look to be Crossland or Wakeham. I’d be moving Schuster on first if you can.
Thanks good food for thought.
Can’t move a 2rf on and move Shoey up?
Thats the move to get Brown/Walker etc.
Thanks didn’t consider that could be an option. Will see if I can make the $ work.
I am hoping Alamoti perks up again with the fox back outside him again this round.
I had to fire Warbrick and Sloan first so he lives another day in my side. Not sure how fit the Foxx will be but can’t hurt – one score over 48 all year though! Hopefully falls over the line for you this week 🙂
Is EKat a sell? He’s bottomed out but not sure about minutes moving forward
I think so unfortunately. Misses two of the bye rounds and should drop a bit further in cash. Normally would be all over the Storm players at home against the Broncos but seems a very different Melbourne this year. Looks damn good on his day though but a little inconsistent.
If u have turbo and trell do I sell turbo to bula or hold now
Given you’ve already got the #1 fullback I’d be making that trade and banking some value while Turbo misses games over the next few months
JT, thoughts on Luki as a buy?
Good shout mate. I like him heaps either next week or 13
Beware the split minutes with the unpronounceable fella in the 17 jersey. He looked good on debut and Gos got the 80 minutes, Luki only 55. Awkward price. I would wait.
I’d rate him as an option bigtime if he could stay fit, but a watch until we see how they’re going to play him regularly. I was actually eyeing off Gos for the next 3 games as more of an option as he’s been very handy for us in big minutes (and better than Nanai in fairness). But Luciano’s court case is also next week so he could be available for 13 and throw a spanner in the works. Would be steering clear of the Cows forwards on that basis I think.
Some great points, I’d completely forgotten about Luciano. Thanks
If you’re selling Katoa to a gun it makes sense. We always fall into the trap of holding these guys for 30 points in a bye round
Yeah fair play if you don’t already have a gun there beside him, but think he’s showing a fair bit more confidence these last few games so some value/points still to come
whos more of a hold, welch or ford
Ford I think, Warriors a good bye schedule and he looks very handy
LOL Warbrick Scores two tries , just as predicted above
Could have been 3!
ok so if i get Bula i have to get rid of either Gutho or Turbo is this wise? Obviously Gutho is a no, so its turbo? thoughts
sorry re-post as i did not get a reply must of got missed lol – ok so if i get Bula i have to get rid of either Gutho or Turbo is this wise? Obviously Gutho is a no, so its turbo? thoughts