Buy Sell Hold – Round 1

Buy, Sell, Hold is back for 2020. I think. Let me check ABC news…

Still on. For now. By the time you read this, things will probably have changed, and we’ll all be under lockdown. Regardless, stay safe, everyone and don’t take unnecessary risks. Like captaining Anthony Milford, for example.

Two key things to keep in mind when trading this week. The first is that Round 1 scores will only influence a single price rise and will move out of a player’s rolling average next week. I’m looking at those of you who’ve shortlisted Emre Guler. That also means that this week’s break evens are based off one game and not reflective of actual price movements. I’ve included them but try not to give them too much attention, much like Wenin’s team advice.

The other thing to ponder is that there we have no idea when or if Round 3 may even occur. An extended break over the next month or two would see several key players return from injury, including Cameron McInnes and John Bateman. Is it worth using a trade or two right now with so much uncertainty hanging over the season? Having an extra two trades later in the season when there’s more clarity

Another reason to pause on the trade button is that quite a few players had impressive first-week performances but not enough to pull the trigger. The likes of Guler and Isaiah Yeo had impressive first-up starts but will the circumstances around their increased minutes continue?

BUY

Billy Walters ($201,100 HOK|HFB – 51, Avg: 51, BE -37)

He’s in 42% of teams, so most of you already own him, but if you don’t then, he’s going to be vital with Luke Brooks out for a month. There are big minutes guaranteed, and he’s looking like the best cash cow of the season when it is vital to increase your team value.

Api Koroisau ($338,800 HOK – 97, Avg: 97.0, BE -85)

Any concerns about his fitness are hopefully in the rear-view mirror, with Koroisau smashing out 56 tackles in 80 minutes on the weekend at an impressive 34% rate (average for a hooker is 26%). What is tackle %? It’s the percentage of tackles made from plays available while on the field, see here for a detailed explanation https://medium.com/@carlosthedwarf/a-better-way-to-quantify-defensive-performance-in-rugby-league-137143f33e19. He looked dangerous every time he darted from dummy half and is a must-have early this season.

Jamayne Isaako ($420,000 CTW|FLB – 83 last round, Average: 83.0, Breakeven -30)

With things looking dire for CTW options, the serious injury to Jack Bird opening things up with Isaako taking over the fullback jumper and kicking goals. He’s only slightly under-priced currently and should peak at just over $500k in a few rounds but could end up a keeper in a position with few legitimate mid-level options.

Esan Marsters ($482,900 CTW – 77, Avg: 77.0, BE 2)

Is he back? The 20 points in offloads alone from Round 1 would indicate so, after a season where it took him nearly a month to register that many points from passing the ball under Michael McGuire. He’s not as discounted as Isaako is, but again could be a genuine keeper for under $500k if his form returns permanently.

Luciano Leilua ($434,300 2RF – 64, Avg: 64.0, BE 12)

With so many mid-range forwards to choose from, the younger Leilua could be the best pick, especially at just 8.8% ownership. Round 1 saw him play the full 80 minutes and pick up 49 points in base stats alone, an excellent result for an edge forward. At $434k, it’s possible he could pick up $100k in value, and it looks like his side of the field is already the main point of attack for the Tigers.

Jesse Arthars ($316,000 CTW – 62, Avg: 62.0, BE -22)

Another beneficiary of the Jack Bird injury, with increased job security from Isaako playing #1 permanently. His 62 on the weekend was assisted by 32 points in base stats, which is a great floor for a CTW. That said they won’t be lining up against the Cowboys every week. Kallum Watkins is another option for nearly $50k cheaper but Brian Kelly sitting on the bench and the Titans overall play makes Arthars the safer choice for now. He’s also a bigger point of difference with 6.6% ownership compared to Watkins 20.4%.

SELL

Latrell Mitchell ($653,100 CTW|FLB – 17, Avg: 17.0, BE 177)

Everyone knew Mitchell was overpriced and a risk going into the season, and those fears were confirmed on opening weekend. He played just 56 minutes and could easily lose well over $100k in the next few rounds if this sort of scoring continued. The only positive is that as mentioned above, this 17 will roll out of his score very quickly.

Tevita Pangai ($540,600 2RF – 88, Avg: 88.0, BE -1)

Another dog act by a complete grub. Until he shows that he’s removed those sorts of cheap shots from his game he’s an absolute liability for Supercoach and should be on everyone’s never again lists. Could be held a week if you want to hedge your bets on the season moving forward but things look progressing at the moment.

Adam Doueihi ($343,100 CTW|FLB – 27, Avg: 27.0, BE 57)

Nearly 14% of coaches still started the season with Doueihi despite him not being named at fullback or kicking goals for the Tigers. Even at $343k, scores hovering around 30 aren’t going to cut it, and there’s not much hope of upward momentum with Tigers opposite side looking very tasty.

Zane Tetevano ($310,700 FRF|2RF – 12, Avg: 12.0, BE 76)

An early knee injury limited him to 21 minutes and just 12 points. Now he’s been shifted back to the interchange bench. You could easily free up $100,000 cash by trading him to one of the rookie forwards like Toby Rudolf or Eliesa Katoa or swap him across to Patrick Carrigan or Thomas Flegler.

HOLD

Zac Lomax ($324,600 CTW|FLB – 55, Avg; 55.0, BE -5)

Not the best start to the season when one of the best CTW cheapies gets quarantined to the wing from fullback. He’ll still make cash, and do you have a better option?

Andrew Fifita ($553,900, FRF – 31.0, Avg: 31.0, BE 117)

Jack Williams ($397,200 2RF – 42, Avg: 42.0, BE 44)

Fifita played on 39 minutes against the Rabbitohs for just 31 points, which is a massive concern going forward with the Sharks heavy middle rotation. If his minutes don’t increase next week, then he would most likely need to be sold given the depth of mid-range options in the front row. This rotation also affects Williams, who did slightly below what you’d expect with 42 points in 61 minutes, which included 48 points in base. If he was able to capture an attacking stat, he could make some cash, but the drop in PPM from 1.14 last year to just 0.69 in Round 1 is troubling, although there’s a good reason for that (see below).

Blake Brailey ($201,000 HOK – 38, Avg: 38.0, BE -11)

Yes, he didn’t deliver what coaches expected, coming in at under 0.5 points per minute. If you’ve noticed a trend from above, the other Sharks players also had a lower PPM this round. Part of that is that it was a slower-paced game – it had the fewest play the balls of any game on the weekend (257), which hurts for base stats. The Knights/Warriors game had the highest (299), which is why someone like Eliesa Katoa looks impressive. Brailey is still likely to make some decent cash and is worth hanging onto and seeing what he can produce against the Storm. He’s only worth punting if you missed starting with Koroisau, and you’re running a risk starting him in your 17.

Damian Cook ($705,000 HOK – 47.0, Avg: 47.0, BE 134)

Mitchell Moses ($579,300 HFB – 32.0, Avg: 32.0, BE 123)

I think I’ve said this every year, but it bears repeating. You did your pre-season research, you bought them for a reason, and one below-average performance isn’t the reason to throw all your toys out of the cot and rage trade them.

The memorial Nick “One to Watch”

Eleisa Katoa ($171,900 2RF – 51, Avg: 51.0, BE -47)

Pumped out an impressive 51 points in 51 minutes. As mentioned above, New Zealand players were in a favourable Supercoach game with plenty of base stats to go around due to a higher number of plays. With some uncertainty about the Warriors moving forward and possibly using loan players, he could be a risk, and it won’t hurt to have another look at him this weekend to see if he can keep it up. One to watch.

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magee
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Keeper
magee

I have got Api and BBrailey at HOK, with Cleary and Moses at HLF.
Is it worth going BBrailey to Walters this week as Walters appears to have better security especially with Brooks out?

zachwhich
Member
zachwhich

TU: Lomax > Yeo & Musgrove > Katoa
TD: Hold

Want to trade Wakeham out next week so have to make this trade next week