Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 1

Only one round into the 2021 NRL season and already Supercoach is providing me with highs and lows. The high was captaining James Tedesco and scoring 1,273, which I thought would be a pretty good score for the round. I’d has seasons previously where I hadn’t even broken 900 in round 1, and I had that score after the 5:30pm game on Saturday. Unfortunately, that 1,273 wasn’t even enough to get me into the top 10k. At least the game is breaking my heart early this season.

On to the games themselves and one thing to keep in mind from the opening weekend of the season that time in play had dropped from last season. That means that the price increases for middle forwards already baked in from last season’s increase in base stats are probably not sustainable, and most middle forwards will be seeing a slight decrease in price. It’s something I’ve covered on my other side gig at the Rugby League Eye Test, and I’d suggest checking it out if you’re interested in some of the macro trends in the NRL. Or you can follow the site on twitter (@LeagueEyeTest) where I also post updates.

The other thing to remember is that the first round scores are the least important scores of the season for pricing, as they’ll only be a factor for one price rise and then drop out of a players rolling average. Definitely something to consider when looking a David Mead, who may only see one massive price rise. There’s a number of other players worth waiting a week on, such as Reed Mahoney, Junior Paulo and Daniel Saifiti.

BUY

James Tedesco ($843,100 FLB – 162 last round, Average: 162.0, Breakeven 29)

If you tried the galaxy brain move of going reverse POD by not owning Teddy, then you’ve got a week to remedy it. Even if you got lucky like Wilfred.

Brian To’o ($522,000 CTW – 84, Avg: 84.0, BE 34)

To’o was one of the best CTW choices in 2020 and he’s continued that into 2021. The Panthers flier started the season with a strong 84 points, including 31 in base and a massive 20 points in tackle busts alone. A large number of coaches (including myself) have tried to stack this position with as many cheapies as possible, and that didn’t work out this weekend as he outscored three of my four starting CTW alone. If you’re looking for one premium CTW possibility this round, then To’o is the head of the pack.

Ryan James ($236,700 FRF|2RF – 69, Avg: 69.0, BE -16)

Whilst it’s true that James’ first round score will drop out shortly as I mentioned above, he offers a few tasty bonuses that make him more appealing than the likes of Ofahiki Ogden and Jack Hetherington. James played 41 minutes in his return after nearly 700 days out of the game, and had 34 base points, and 42 base + power points, indicating he’s likely to have a very good floor for points even off the bench. Meanwhile Hetherington plodded along to 35 in 58 minutes, with a PPM of 0.6 that is appallingly low for a middle forward.

James is also dual position which will be very hand to move around with Tino Faasuamaleaui or James Fisher-Harris. You can also pocket over $60k by swapping him out for Lodge, and there’s a great chance James will push over $350k by Round 3-4 if he continues with those base stats.

Tyrell Fuimaono ($259,500 2RF – 56, Avg: 56.0, BE 3)

The Dragons forwards had all the makings of a trap, especially after starting last season with a big score and then drifting out of the rotation. This season he’s started off with a solid 56 points (46 in base stats alone) in 60 minutes, which is even more impressive considering he spent time on the left edge during the game. Sub $300k players averaging 50 at 1.0PPM should be moved on very swiftly, with games upcoming against North Queensland and Manly. Logic says to wait a week to see if it’s real life, but we all know there’s going to be more trades than you have available next week. The big shame is that Fuimaono lost his dual position status this season, he would have been a wonderful CTW choice.

SELL

Matthew Lodge ($299,000 FRF – 17, Avg: 17.0, BE 50)

For owners who tried to punt their front row positions by starting Lodge due to his low price, seeing him crumble early in the first half with a hamstring injury is a disaster. He’s awkwardly priced and will be hard to replace with another starting prop, unless you want to spend slightly more money for ordinary production from someone like Joe Ofahengaue. The best option is to downgrade to James, Leniu or Fuimaono if you have the dual positions.

Brian Kelly ($498,900 CTW – 47, Avg: 47.0, BE 66)

Kelly was a fantastic pre-season POD choice, with less than 5% ownership, priced under $500k and coming off a season where he averaged 56. Sadly, a broken hand has ruled him out for the short term, and even more sadly he hasn’t been replaced by perennial boom rookie Greg Marzhew. On the positive, you wouldn’t lose much by replacing him with To’o.

Jason Taumalolo ($641,700 2RF – 36, Avg: 36.0, BE 109)

We knew his minutes would be reduced this season, but we weren’t expecting them to be reduced and for him to have one his least effective games in his career. New coach Todd Payten wasn’t impressed with him defensively either, and priced at $640k he will easily lose at least $100k or more over the next month of the season. Definitely one to revisit later in the season.

Damien Cook ($621,000 HOK – 36, Avg: 36.0, BE 104)

Cook was another gun who had a sub-par round 1, but the outlook for him isn’t as dreary as Taumalolo’s but he’s still a candidate top move this week. He did only score 36 points and had just four points from hit ups, but the Rabbitohs pack was struggling to win the battle in the middle of the field with Melbourne. The larger issue is that like Taumalolo, he’s likely to lose a lot cash in a short period of time, and we’ve been blessed with some quality cheap hookers this season.

Jason Saab ($233,200 CTW – 11, Avg: 11.0, BE 42)

Despite having a roster that would struggle to put points on some Queensland Cup sides, Saab still ended up in 29% of teams. It’s no surprise he ended up with just 11 points on the weekend as Manly couldn’t do anything against the Roosters. That score was dead last of the eight CTW options under $300k who started the round.

HOLD

Angus Crichton ($670,500 2RF – 98, Avg: 98.0, 53)

The Supercoach gods love giving us a curly one early in the season. Crichton will miss one round through suspension for a crusher tackle, which for most coaches should be an easy hold for one of the best 2RF picks available. If you’re holding multiple sell options like Lodge, Taumalolo or Cameron Murray, or whiffed on your cheapies, you might feel forced to trade him out to put a decent score on the board. Just remember we don’t have the luxury of max trades over 20 rounds this season and it’s more of a marathon this season.

Lachlan Lam ($310,100 5/8|HOK – 26, Avg: 26.0, BE 44)

Lam looked to be good option in the halves or at hooker, especially with everyone running Connor Watson as well. It’s not a disaster yet, but the trap warning signs are there with him only scoring 26 in the Roosters rout of the Sea Eagles. With Freddy Lussick starting at #9 and Sam Walker on an extended bench, we may see Lam spend time at dummy half this weekend against the Tigers, which would at least up his base stats. Definitely worth holding and see what Lam (and Matt Moylan) can produce.

Jake Averillo ($331,200 CTW|5/8 – 18, Avg: 18.0, BE 57)

Averillo had been pencilled in to most teams very early on and was expected to kick on after having scored over 50 in every game he played more than 70 minutes in last season. That didn’t happen in round 1, and may not happen in round 2 as the Bulldogs play Penrith, but you get another free look at him this week so why not use it and save a trade?

Charlie Staines ($297,700 CTW – 18, Avg: 18.0, BE 49)

It wasn’t a great weekend for CTW cheapies, particularly for those of us running four of them. Staines still looks like he will be a solid contributor this season, although the propensity of Paul Momirovski inside of him to tuck the ball and run may limit his opportunities. Penrith play the Bulldogs this week, and Manly two weeks later. You may want to wait and see if Staines can cross the try line in those games before giving up on him. We’ve seen him do it before in bunches.

The People’s Team Trade of the Week

Have your say here. These were the two most popular suggestions by you in the People’s Team article this week.

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Bradd9

Thoughts on HOLD/SELL for CHT, also I think people with Fogarty would be in a similar position.

Personally I’m holding this round but definitely looking to downgrade to Walker and upgrade Lodge to Welch, or potentially get another CTW cheapie via duals.

TurkeySnow

I have CHT, as my back up hlf, I was impressed with his game considering, he was returning from a quad strain, could see this effected his in game kicks, lost the gk, although has been said will take this back in a few rds, Warriors attack for rd 1, seemed to heavily focus on their defence, holding Titans to 6pts and looked a little underdone, think the run/game will benifit him this week. He scored 31pts in base, I was impressed with this, 22ta with 0miss, and they targeted him, he started to run a little more and looks… Read more »

Trav80

Definitely holding Fogarty as reserve half to see how he goes against the Broncs

Jarvie wall bangers

Saab > Mead or Staines > Ferguson?

Pool Man

I think it’s to early for both. I would wait until next week.

WeninRome

I’m leaning towards trading Saab to Ryan. While I normally am an advocate for holding trades in Round 1, starting with a Nuff makes it even more important to get the cows right early.

Pool Man

For those on twitter, do yourselves a favour and follow @LeagueEyeTest it’s gold to read.
Thanks Carlos for your efforts @LeagueEyeTest and here with Buy Sell Hold.

TurkeySnow

It is great!

evilmacca

Thanks as always Carlos!

Jeez – just had a look at Catfish’s (Wilfred’s) side and gee … that’s a heck of a side he put out … hit all the point scorers on the head, albeit taking the risk of Gutho over Teddy … but really solid side! (noting your dig at him “getting lucky”!!)

Last edited 3 years ago by evilmacca
Catfish

To be clear, I definitely didn’t choose to take the risk of Gutho over Teddy haha

Franco7

My team is stacked but I have the problem now that Crichton is suspended and only have Stefano U as a bench option. Was thinking to trade out Crichton just for the week then trade him back in the next so I only burn 2 trades. Should I do this and if so who should I go for ?

juggler

Cop the auto emergency for the week – can use Angus to loop?

hoof hearted

Nice work Carlos

Yeah I thought my 1366 was pretty good too but I’m not even in the top 1000 .

I started with To’o & Kelly as pods & now I’m losing 1 pod & everyone will buy the other one .

So I’m trading Kelly to Arrow who passed the eye & sc points test & is also a pod .

Mighty tigs

Thoughts on Api hold or sell?

AJW

G’day Carlos and all the readers – had a similar question to the Angus one.

Wondering doing following trades is a good idea?

This round:
Lodge>James + Angus>Arrow

Round 3-4:
Sitili Tupounia > Angus (if Gus looks like rising)

Round 4-5 Sitili>Angus (if price is falling).

Effectively looks like I’m getting Sitili > Arrow, on credit & benefiting from their price rises and performances while Angus is absent.

Good idea or just the musings of a knucklehead??? 🙂

AJW

By the way, I really like your weekly column & it feels good to be back into things! Cheers mate! 😉

CoG

Doable in theory until the mayhem over the next two rnds side tracks those plans

AJW

Okay fellas – I’ll hold off and wait until my itchy trigger finger gets the better of me! 🙂

muddy

Just do the second trade

Professor Fate

Yep sell Lodge please all and he will be a POD for me. Too much average advice here, sell Cook after one game …. really Carlos ?

MyYfH8sSC

I don’t know why Lodge was in so many teams to start with, but he’s a definite sell now with injury and Haas to return in two weeks.

cookingeggs

Trade Question re: Players not in team’s Top 30 squad. So I wanted to have a nuff from rd 1 but went for full playing 25. Have the option now to nuff out an injured player and add a little ITB for future. For a player such as Luca Moretti, dual FRF/2RF 173K, not in Roosters top 30- What are the realities of him ever playing as players outside of the 30 need special permission right?

TrainingTheHouseDown

Fergo and/or Rapana worth buying? Thinking one of them in for Fus

Casper

I’d be holding instead of bringing in mid pricers. They are playing the knights who gave up 2 tries to Dogs down the side Fus will be running. Just a thought