Buy, Sell, Hold – R6

Looking at the most traded in players this week, there’s some serious chasing last week’s points going on in the top trades this week. Damian Cook makes the most sense, but he might be too expensive for some. James Fisher-Harris put in a great score with some attacking stats but is he 5-10ppg better over the next two months than David Klemmer to make up for JFH playing the Round 12 bye? Kurt Capewell is very tempting but could be out of the starting line-up when Wade Graham returns, which could be relatively soon. If you didn’t have him already he’d be very hard to recommend.

There’s also really too many cheapies available this year and someone will have to be left out. Payne Haas looked like an absolute gun last week with a ridiculously nice 69 points in base stats (77 total) but after last year (see below) can you really trade him in after one week? Chanel Harris-Tavita is an absolute must this week and should be one of everyone’s trades, but where does that leave Bronson Xerri? It’s looking like a double downgrade week to set yourself up for some big upgrades next round.

Also I’d like to give a shout out to the one Galaxy Brain coach who’s traded out Cody Walker for Luke Keary.

Best Call – BUY Cody Walker. Four tries, 150 points. If I convinced you to grab him last week let me know and I’ll send you my PayPal details so you can buy me a beer. Preferably not that watery stuff the Queensland lads drink on the podcast, something real from New South Wales.

Worst call – BUY Corey Harawira-Naera. In his defense, the Dogs were towelled up by the Dragons and he had little opportunity to get involved.

Chanel Harris Tavita ($168,100 HFB – 67 last round, Average: 73.0, Break even -89)

With two fantastic scores and Adam Keighran nowhere to be seen in the Warriors 21-man squad, CHT should be in one of everyone’s trades this week. Those with underperforming halves can downgrade to someone who could start in their 17 this week, and everyone else will probably have one of Dylan Brown or Keighran to trade out.

Bronson Xerri ($168,100 CTW – 28, AVG: 38.5, BE -20)

Those who started with him are sitting pretty. For everyone else, Xerri looks like a great downgrade, but his BE isn’t far enough into the negatives where he’s an absolute must have this week. An average of 40 over the next three weeks would add $100k to his price and he’d only increase by about $40k this week. Rueben Garrick and Maika Sivo both play Round 12, and Mikaele Ravalawa having a negative break even, is it worth jettisoning one of them early to grab Xerri this week?

Due to Albert Hopoate suffering a torn ACL on the weekend there aren’t any high profile CTW cheapies on the horizon and you’ll need to trade Siko and Garrick out eventually. If you’re able to trade Garrick or Sivo to Xerri and then fund another upgrade to a genuine keeper like Roger Tuivisa-Sheck then you’d be crazy not to do it.

There is an unpopular Supercoach opinion this week that Xerri is a buy but not if you are selling one of your current cows, especially those who play Round 12. It really depends on your team makeup and how you’re positioned for the byes.

Sivo may have peaked with a BE in the low 40s but if he averages 35 for the next six rounds he’ll sit in that $340-360k range and give you an extra body for Round 12. Similarly, Garrick would sit around $320-330k with a 35 average and also play that first bye weekend. With scores at the top being so tight this season, an extra 80 points from the both of them for Round 12 could boost your team hundreds of places. If either of them bag a try, then you’re set for more increases.

However, the cash you unlock from downgrading to Xerri this week gives you an incredible amount of flexibility over the coming weeks to upgrade to a genuine gun that will benefit your team more in the long run. You only need to add 5 points per week to your team score from adding an extra keeper to cover the 35-40 points you’d gain from having an extra round 12 player that you’ll need to downgrade anyway.

Matt Moylan isn’t likely to return before Round 10 at this stage giving Xerri some great job security making it too hard to bypass the cash you unlock from bringing him in this week.

Kalyn Ponga ($548,400 5/8|FLB – 81, AVG: 58.6, BE 18)

This will likely be the cheapest you can nab Ponga for over the next month or so as his price will shoot back up over $600k with a strong game this weekend. With the downgrade options available it might be hard to find a place for Ponga in your trades this week, but if you started with Xerri then you have some more freedom.

Roger Tuivisa-Sheck ($613,900 FLB – 89, AVG: 79.4, BE 37)

Like Ponga, if his form continues he’s going to be very expensive soon. You can lock him in now with Tedesco and have your fullback position sorted for the rest of the season (pending a review when or if Tom Trbojevic’s hamstring recovers).

Cameron McInnes ($582,500 HOK – 70, AVG: 62.8 BE 68)

With Damian Cook pushing back past $700k, he may be too rich for some coaches. Enter McInnes, who has quietly put together a 3 round average of 72.0 and is in only in 5% of teams. McInnes may not have the lofty attacking stats of Cook, but with a total base average of 58.2, he’s first among all hookers and 5ppg higher than second place (Andrew McCullough).

Brian Kelly ($524,200 CTW – 43, AVG: 57.0, BE 53)

Here’s one for the extreme risk takers. It’s hard to recommend any Titans, even Jai Arrow right now, but Kelly is a huge point of difference with just over 1000 selections. He has a three round average of 73.7, also plays Round 12. His total base average of 46.2 per game is seventh among all CTW eligible players, and only Esan Marsters and Jayden Okunbor are the only backline players ahead of him. He’s third among all CTW for tackle bust per game with 9.2ppg. His BE is only 53 so you could probably wait a week given the cheapies available, especially considering he had his lowest base stats game of the season on the weekend. Ideally he would have been a buy last week with a negative BE and was $40k cheaper.

Anthony Milford ($418,300 5/8 – 22, AVG: 39.2, BE 91)

It’s hard to find positive things to say about the Broncos both on the field and in Supercoach circles. Milford’s 3 round average of 32.7 is disastrous and given the lack of go forward and defensive issues it’s hard to see where he turns this around. A great downgrade is available to Harris-Tavita for the 5,000+ coaches who still own him.

Jacob Host ($286,000 FRF|2RF – 27, AVG: 37.0, BE 45)

Host looked like a great cow option given some injuries and suspensions at the Dragons, but even additional injuries didn’t help his minutes, dropping to 40 on the weekend. Combined with a low per minute output he’s been lapped by Blake Lawrie for cash generation and could be downgraded to Xerri via dual position players.

Victor Radley ($390,700 HOK|2RF – 25, AVG: 39.0, BE 71)

Still in 18% of sides somehow. Only has one game higher than 0.5PPM which was against the Eels where he scored 61 including a try. I get that he’s performing a role for the Roosters but that’s of little comfort for Supercoaches.

Lachlan Fitzgibbon ($472,800 2RF – 39, AVG: 44.0, BE 66)

Despite the successful resurgence of Ponga with his return to fullback, Fitzgibbon has yet to reap any benefits. Owners would be frustrated with the Knights cutting him out every time they move the ball left (something Bryce Cartwright owners would sympathise with). With his price drops he’s in a bit of an awkward spot now, needing around $70k to go up to someone like Fisher-Harris, with another option being pulling the trigger a week early on Payne Haas. If you’ve got some spare cash from downgrading to Harris-Tavita then the $100k upgrade to Klemmer is well worth it.

Jai Arrow ($570,400 2RF – 47, AVG: 64.2, BE 88)

Arrow left the field early with a leg injury in last weekend’s game against the Panthers, managing just 47, albeit at a strong PPM of 1.0. It would be worth giving him another week to see if that was what affected his score, or he has a terminal case of the Garth Brennans. If it’s the latter, then Rhyse Martin or Angus Crichton next week will be very appealing.

Andrew Fifita ($602,600 FRF – 58, AVG: 65.8, BE 58)

Those who captained Fifita last week are still wondering where his try assist went. He has been named this week and is in some doubt due to a hamstring complaint, but even if he doesn’t take the field this weekend it appears to be a minor complaint and worth holding.

Martin Taupau ($569,200 FRF|2RF – 48, AVG: 57.7, BE 92)

Big Marty has slowed down in the last fortnight after posting back to back 70 scores, with just 54 and 48 (in only 39 minutes) in his last two appearances. Addin Fonua-Blake has taken the walking suspension moniker from Jack Hetherington – it takes a special kind of grub to be suspended twice in 5 rounds – Taupau should be responsible for more of the load and an increase in minutes. Ignore the break even, he’s a keeper.

Angus Crichton ($574,200 2RF – 44, AVG: 50.6, BE 67)

Should have had a score closer to 60 but fumbled a ball he just had to fall on for a pie. His 44 in 76 minutes does look concerning, but it’s hard to accumulate base stats when you’re spending an inordinate amount time standing still watching Latrell Mitchell kick goals. His three round average is still 64.0 with that 44, his BE is very achievable and he’s also only in 4% of teams. If you’ve held this long, last week’s score shouldn’t bother you.

Thomas Flegler ($230,300 2RF|FRF – 31, AVG: 31.0, BE 23)

Those who are tempted to go a week early on Flegler to Haas may have short memories. It was only Round 8 last year where Haas looked impressive scoring 30 in 21 minutes, leading to a flood of trade ins. Haas then went on to bust his ankle 8 minutes in to the Broncos next game and wasn’t seen again all season. Unless you’re desperately short on front rowers this weekend due to injury, follow the commandments and wait until Haas has played his second game to punt Flegler.

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