Buy, Sell, Hold – R4

The Great Toaster Shortage of 2019 has arrived early. Usually it would occur around State of Origin time as players don’t back up, get injured or bye cover players disappear off the face of the earth. Instead we have a complete crisis in March that could ruin some coaches’ seasons.

It’s not inconceivable that there are teams with 18-19 players available this week before trades, and may not even have enough named players in their halves to field a full 17. This round will really separate the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys and the Wenins from the Nicks. I’ll let you the reader decide which is which.

About the only good news is that some of the rookies managed to fall over the line at least once last week, meaning Maika Sivo, Briton Nikora, Rueben Garrick and even Makaele Ravalawa will see some very important price rises over the next few rounds.

Best Call – BUY Clint Gutherson. Two straight scores in the 90s and a massive price increase, looking like the keeper he was in 2017. Most frustrating is my own decision to start with Jo Ofahengaue instead of Guntherson.

Worst Call – BUY James Tamou. Only managed 40 on the weekend, in similar minutes to his previous big scores. In his defense he was hardly the only Panther to underwhelm as the Storm ran them off the park. With Villiame Kikau back this week his minutes will probably drop and may not be relevant.

Buy

#beast

Tom Trbojevic ($681,200 FLB – 152 last round, Average: 152.0, Break even -71)

There’s not a lot that needs to be said about Turbo. He’s the safest selection outside of Damian Cook and James Tedesco in Supercoach and you really need to find a way to fit him in your side within the next fortnight. Cost is irrelevant, you can argue that Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is an option but Turbo nearly lapped him by 83 points last week and a total of 333 points last season.

Sure the Sea Eagles play Souths this week, but he’s averaged 77.6 against them in 5 games, 84 in 4 games against them in the #1 jersey, AND had scores of 102 and 119 against them in 2017. His averages at Brookvale over the last three seasons keep growing – 73.1 in 2016 (9 games), 86.1 in 2017 (9), and a ridiculous 100.4 in 2018 (9). You can’t give away those sort of points at fullback, find your PODS elsewhere.

There’s some sense in waiting a week if bringing him in would mean trading out another gun as his price won’t change. I’d prioritise him over Esan Marsters as well since the gap between the top centres isn’t as high as the gap between the top fullbacks where it’s Turbo, Teddy then daylight. He’s still only in 3% of teams, but with almost 6,000 trade ins at the time of writing that will skyrocket.

Charnze Nikoll-Klokstad ($330,300 CTW|FLB – 90, AVG: 59.3, BE -31)

CNK was conspicuously absent from Buy, Sell, Hold last week, and even with a $65k increase this week he’s still a very good target if you need to relieve yourself of Braidon Burns. His total base stats are incredible for a CTW at 45.3 (note this for later), including 8ppg from tackle busts (equal 5th for CTW) and 30ppg just from hit ups (3rd for CTW). With such a high base, he was always going to have a massive game if he ever picked up some attacking stats. He’s currently average would price him at $525k, indicating there’s likely to be almost $200k still to be made. With dual position flexibility he’s one that I’d be jumping on this week if I had missed out.

Dylan Napa ($368,100 FRF – 83, AVG: 68.3, BE -46)

Every year there’s a player who continually outperforms everyone’s expectations and rather than admitting they were wrong, some coaches will refuse to jump on late because he’s already had a price rise or two and therefore theoretically overpriced.

Napa could be this year’s George Burgess, starting at a very affordable price before becoming unaffordable and either a reserve to play depending on matchups later in the season or a trade to a proven gun. His 68.3 average puts him at around $610k value, meaning there’s plenty of cash left to be made if this form continues. 1.6PPM in 53 minutes in consecutive games is hard to ignore.

There are some arguments against, but they’re pretty flimsy. His total base is only around 48ppg (28th among FRF eligible players), and he’s not going to be averaging 21 per game in attacking stats for the whole season. He’s also owned by 22% of coaches (and rising fast). Even considering this, that 48ppg would price him at $430k indicating that even with a sprinkling of attacking stats he’s still under priced.

Junior Paulo ($407,300 FRF – 83, AVG: 71.5, BE -6)

Missing the Eels opener means Paulo is a week behind everyone else with his first price rise. At only $407k with a negative break even he’s looking like an excellent buy this week. Paulo has the 6th highest total base average for front rowers at 61.6ppg. His current average would peg him at around $635k which probably isn’t likely, but a 60 average would push him up to $535k. Again, there’s cash to be made here and possibly a safer front row choice if you’re not confident about Alex Twal’s minutes.

Addin Fonua-Blake ($447,200 FRF – 65, AVG: 67.0, BE 17)

Another who missed a game and is due his first price rise this week. Fonua-Blake has a been a base stats monster so far, averaging 64 in total base from his two appearances. At this scoring he’s undervalued by about $150k, and with the Manly bench thin up front he has been putting in some huge efforts including 1.3ppm in 50 minutes on the weekend against the Warriors. His minutes were down this week but the increase in PPM made up for it.

AFB is currently in less than 2,000 teams (about 1% ownership) and unlike Paulo and Twal, Manly only have three forwards on their bench plus Manase Fainu, opposed to the Tigers and Eels carrying four forwards.

Jayden Okunbur ($168,100 2RF|CTW – 55, AVG: 55.0, BE -53)

By now everyone should know the rule about trading in a rookie before they’ve played their two games, lest you get Curtis Scott’d like Surge and myself did in 2017 when broke his leg in his second game. Given the list of players missing this week you may need a base priced player in your second row to avoid moving the likes of Nikora or John Bateman (sorry, Basegun) up and having to play a rookie at CTW. Okunbur’s base stats were incredible for a CTW for his debut at 45, and if he keeps that up then he’d be a must have next week and you could be forgiven for going a week early on him if you know what you’re getting into. 

Corey Allan and Bronson Xerri are other options, but even with a 50 score Allan would still be priced under $200k and Xerri hasn’t even stepped foot on the field yet. Okunbur for Burns is currently the most popular trade this week and it’s not hard to see why.

Bryce Cartwright ($265,500 2RF|5/8 – 58, AVG: 41.3, BE 0)

Just kidding, please don’t fall for this again. You only have yourself to blame. I’m warning you for the last time. Don’t make me turn this car around. Hi Sanga.

Sell

Not a good sight for owners

Braidon Burns ($330,900 CTW – 10, AVG: 52.3, BE 24)

Matt Moylan ($476,300 FLB|5/8 – 31, AVG: 51.0, BE 59)

Gareth Widdop ($472,500 5|8|FLB – 28, AVG: 25.7, BE 103)

The three listed above are all set to miss significant time and should be sold ASAP, there’s no point to sitting large amounts of cash as a non-playing reserve. The Burns injury really hurts, but considering he was in over 40,000 teams last week and was traded in by over 28,000 coaches you’re in good company. At least he managed to make some cash before getting injured though. 

Moylan is a bit of an issue in that he’s $100k away from the top replacements at 5/8 (Cody Walker, Cameron Munster and Shaun Johnson). The closest similarly priced options are Corey Norman and Anthony Milford. If you’re feeling really risky, then there’s Jack Bird and Carty as downgrade options. Michael Morgan may be the best choice, but not overwhelmingly so. If you have duals, Adam Reynolds with Souths favourable draw over the next month is also a great option and is in just 7% of teams.

Jake Friend ($481,500 HOK – 21, AVG: 58.0, BE 46)

Friends situation is a little different to the above trio in that he’s only meant to be missing a short period of time, most likely Rounds 4 and 5. The bigger issue is his shoulder affecting him on a regular basis and it’s hard to carry a $500k player who isn’t guaranteed of big minutes this early in the season. After smashing out 95 in the Roosters opening game, Friend missed their second game and only played in 33 minutes of their Round 3 win over Parramatta. If you have another starting hooker you could make a case to hold him, but it’s difficult to keep him in your line up without any certainty regarding his minutes or availability, let alone the cash burning a hole on your bench.

Dylan Brown ($232,800, HLF|5/8 – 36, AVG: 48.0, BE -27)

You’ll probably need to sell one of your rookie halves in the coming weeks and Brown should be the one to go. An 18 year old out “indefinitely” with a back injury sounds like a massive red flag and I can’t imagine he will be back any time soon. Given that he won’t lose any cash this week and Jaeman Salmon has a BE of 30, you could easily wait a week and have a look at his replacement performs before committing to any trades. A more interesting thing to keep an eye on this week is how this affects Shaun Lane’s scores, as Brown was part of their combination on the left side of the field. Salmon only averaged 37 in three games at 5/8 last year for the Eels.

Lachlan Fitzgibbon ($525,000, 2RF – 43, AVG: 41.7, BE 94)

Everyone knew that Fitzgibbon would need attacking stats to be relevant this early in the season, and sadly with the Kalyn Ponga experiment at 5/8 they weren’t forthcoming. He’s already lost $50k, and his total base stats average at 45.3 is 38th among second rowers, or for those paying attention, equal with CNK. Ponga is moving back to #1, and the Knights upcoming draw does look appealing (St George, Manly, @Gold Coast, Parramatta, @New Zealand, @Canterbury and @St George). Unfortunately, there are too many better options for backrowers currently to carry him and if you have the duals, you could pocket $100k and pick up Paulo. RIP in Peace #Pongibbon (for now).

Matt Gillett ($422,000 2RF – 34, AVG: 43.7, BE 73)

Hopes were high that Gillett was back to his best after an impressive first up start, but after successive games in the mid-30s it’s not come to fruition. His minutes have been down in both of these games as well. He has been named back on the edge this week though, which could see some more attacking stats available. Another who could be swapped for Paulo or downgraded to someone like Okunbur to fund a Turbo trade.

Hold

Didn’t see this one coming

Adam Keighran ($232,800 HLF|5/8 – 26, AVG: 48.0, BE -27)

Unlike Brown, he’s not injured and could be back in the side in the coming weeks if the Warriors keep losing or Chanel Harris-Tavita struggles in first grade. Keighran was hardly to blame for the Warriors capitulation through the middle last week in Christchurch and with any luck he can work his way back into first grade sooner rather than later as there’s plenty of cash still to be made. You’re only unlocking about $60k to trade him out to another rookie anyway.

Luke Garner ($332,200 2RF – 50, AVG: 60.0, BE 12)

At this stage Garner has been named despite suffering an AC joint injury in the first half of the Tigers loss to the Bulldogs. Coach Michael McGuire has named him a certain starter this weekend and will start in the second row. Thankfully he made his way back on and jagged a late try to keep his BE low. If you really need to sell someone to make a Turbo trade work I’d agree on selling, but otherwise he’s a hold for this week at least.

Nathan Cleary ($523,500 HLF – 34, AVG: 40.7, BE 79)

Most of the talk about Cleary last weekend centred around him not goal kicking due to an abductor issue. More concerning in my eyes was how passive he looked with the ball, which would be partly attributed to how dominant Melbourne were. He was seeing a similar amount of ball as his possessions were similar to previous weeks – 48, 51 and 43 in his three games this season – again highlighting that this stat is irrelevant in isolation. Hopefully with the abductor issue passing, the return of Kikau and some softer opposition result will in a scoring uplift, as owners will need it with rookie halves unavailable.

Kalyn Ponga ($552,900 FLB|5/8 – 24, AVG: 41.3, BE 100)

As mentioned above, the Knights do have an incredible draw over the next two months and Ponga is back at his best position. In 18 games last season where he played all 80 minutes, Ponga averaged 70.3 at fullback. His four games over the last two seasons at 5/8 have only produced 41.5ppg. There’s not much happening at 5/8 to trade him out for either, and there’s really no room long term for him in your fullback spots.

Kurt Capewell ($358,300 2RF|CTW – 47, AVG: 46.3, BE 30)

Capewell doesn’t look like making much cash over the next month, but his break evens will be achievable and he’s not yet picked up a try, try assist, try contribution, line break or line break assist. His average is basically all base stats and as soon as he nabs a couple of attacking stats he’ll have a huge game and his price will start creeping up slowly. Similar to Garner, I’d only be parting with him for a clear upgrade like Turbo.

Subscribe
Notify of
39 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

tanous

1