Buy, Sell, Hold – R4
The first round of price rises has been completed, cheapies are starting to grow, and guns are starting to drop to some realistically reachable prices. With some teams starting to take shape with access to the extra trade boosts available to us, we will be running through the next group of players that you should Buy, Sell, and Hold.
A brief overview of last weeks hits and misses:
HITS
Josh King – BUY (85 points and $71.1k gain)
Nicho Hynes – BUY (124 points and $58.4k gain)
Angus Crichton – SELL (34 points and $46.9k loss)
MISSES
Viliame Kikau – BUY (31 points and $29.4k gain)
Tom Trbojevic – HOLD (66 points and $173.2k loss)
BUY
CAMERON MUNSTER – 5/8 – $649,800 – BE 12
Mad Dog is fit and firing which was evident over his first two games of the season. While the results haven’t been amazing for Melbourne with a 1 point victory over Souths and a loss to the Eels in extra time, Munster has shown a huge improvement in involvement and has scored a 74 and 121. Melbourne have a great run coming up with the Bulldogs, Raiders, Sharks, Warriors, Knights and the Dragons for their next 6. With Cody Walker having a 3rd tough matchup in a row this round and losing money, Munster is the 5/8 to have now before he rises. If Munster reaches his projected score of 90, he will go over the $700k mark and it will be very difficult to bring him in after that point.
BEAU FERMOR – 2RF/CTW – $439,700 – BE -26
It appears based on the first 3 rounds, that the Gold Coast Titans are allergic to attacking with the right-sided second rower. Thankfully for Beau Fermor that means the ball ends up on his side when in the attacking third more often than not. This is evident with two tries and a try assist in his last two games. If you don’t have Fermor in and you missed his initial price rise of $60.4k, don’t stress at all. With his dual position and low breakeven it is not too late to get him in. Also, after this round his low score of 36 in round 1 drops out of his rolling average so he should still be securing some decent price rises over the next couple of weeks.
BRAD SCHNEIDER – HFB – $188,770 – BE -64
This is one that every serious supercoacher should already own or at the very least be heavily considering but entering round 4 with the lowest breakeven and goalkicking duties locked in for the Raiders, Schneider is a huge buy. He isn’t a play this week or next unless your team has been rampaged with injuries/suspensions/covid but most weeks, Schneider is a confident play in your 17. Nothing more needs to be said, GET HIM IN!
HARRY GRANT – HOK – $644,700 – BE 39
TOM STARLING – HOK – $377,700 – BE 11
LEO THOMPSON – FRF – $206,000 – BE -16
HOLD
JAMES TEDESCO – FLB – $714,000 – BE 79
Teddy and his crew in Sydney have not come off to the best of starts in season 2022. With an embarrassing loss to Newcastle straight out of the gates, a redemption game against Manly and then going down to the Rabbitohs on the weekend. Starting as the 4th highest player, Teddy has averaged only 60 points across the first 3 rounds and has lost $46.1k in the first lot of price changes. However, the case to hold Tedesco is still very strong. The run they have from now is incredible and should put plenty of points on offer for him, with Cowboys, Broncos, Warriors, Dragons, Bulldogs and the Titans coming up. Teddy also doesn’t have a huge breakeven like Tom Trbojevic does so he shouldn’t be losing any cash realistically over the next 6 weeks at least.
ADDIN FONUA-BLAKE – FRF – $500,000 – BE 56
Finding a secondary FRF to partner Payne Haas seems to be a struggle so far this season however isn’t a spot that requires as much attention as the HOK, 2RF and the halves. Fonua-Blake has only been averaging 51.3 points so far this season, but is still a hold in my eyes as he could easily improve that to a 55-60 point average over 2-3 weeks and won’t be losing much cash as his breakeven is still only mid-50’s.
PETA HIKU – CTW/FLB – $398,400 – BE 23
Peta Hiku was a big buy last week after scoring 62 and 76 points in the first 2 rounds with a single try assist as his only attacking stat. Owned by 1.6%, that number jumped dramatically after last weekend to 16.4%. Despite the Cowboys putting a thumping on their home state nemesis, Hiku failed to live up to new owners expectations with a measly 28 points. Hiku goes into round 4 with a decent rolling average making his breakeven only 23 so he still has a few weeks of potentially money-making in him.
SELL
STEFANO UTOIKAMANU – FRF – $425,600 – BE 77
Big Uto was very highly owned going into this season with a decent starting price compared to his average at the end of last season. However, he is an easy sell this round as not only was he underperforming, he has suffered an injury that will keep him sidelined until at least round 11 at this stage.
SUITABLE REPLACEMENTS: Max King, Jai Arrow, Sio Siua Taukeiaho
ETHAN BULLEMOR – FRF/2RF – $283,600 – BE 58
Ethan Bulletrap has hit his peak for the early season it seems after losing his starting second row spot to Andrew Davey and being pushed back to the bench. A big price rise of $3.6k and now a seemingly unreachable breakeven of 58 has turned Bullemor into a definite sell.
SUITABLE REPLACEMENTS: Max King, Kelma Tuilagi, Leo Thompson
KOTONI STAGGS – CTW – $398,200 – BE 59
Round 2 and 3 have been the same story for Kotoni Staggs. “He’ll explode this round, he can score 2-3 tries easily this round, he’ll put Cobbo through for a few surely this round”. This hasn’t been close to happening, and Staggs hasn’t been helping his case due to his lack of effort to get the football in his hands. Staggs is averaging a whopping 5 points a carry so far this season, he may have a good matchup this weekend but I’d suggest moving him onto one of the suitable replacements below before the price differential makes it too hard to move him on.
SUITABLE REPLACEMENTS: Beau Fermor, Taylan May, Teig Wilton
JAHROME HUGHES – HFB – $630,500 – BE 113
TYRELL SLOAN – CTW/FLB – $438,200 – BE 88
Still torn over getting Fermor. Might have to pass dammit .!
I think last week was the week to buy. Tough run after this week could see plenty of 30-40 point games. Still might cave to the FOMO though.
I’d say this is the last time to get him in and it depends on who you’d be trading out to get him. If you’re selling Crichton/Staggs or a gun who’s falling then yes, if you’re selling someone like Kikau who had an off week then I wouldn’t be.
Nicho a buy for those who don’t already have him with a BE of 12?
One suspects so! 😉
Stop it AJW…. You think he will be the Banner? Geezzzz
100000% only reason I didn’t add him in to the BUY category this week is because I don’t like doing players multiple times within a few rounds of each other.
This was brilliant, 1000 times better than Tom Sangster which was rubbish
Haha
Cheers mate!
Is it worth using boost this week on BWalters > KHethringron so i can bring in Harry via duals next week. Or save the booster and struggle on without Grant a few week longer. Randall is other hooker so would be playing him
This is impossible to answer… for me anyway …. obviously You want Guns ASAP… is all I can comment to that
I’d safely say that the booster shouldn’t be used if it means you have to have Hetherington. I believe that you will probably be able to figure another plan out not including Hetherington next round if you want Grant in.
so turbo was a hold last week
no comment this week = should have sold last week?
100% agree, I put him in the misses section at the top of the article. Only reason I didn’t add him in this week in the SELL category is because I don’t like putting players in multiple times within a few rounds of each other. But yes, Turbo is a sell. Especially if you don’t have Hynes.
But he’s changed catagories and not even an honorable mention in the sell section for those crazy enough to still own him!
Gone Staggs>May to afford Walker>Hynes. Leaves me with $100m ITB. Not sure if it’s worth going AFB>Arrow or save the trade.
Great trades in my opinion, and I’d say that’s not worth the trade for AFB -> Arrow.
Wow, you have done so well to have that much money ITB! I think May is a bit of a risk since he had the game of his life last week and didn’t get close to 100.
Is there another May I don’t know about as Taylan May scored 106, which last time I checked exceeds 100. Are you possibly being sarcastic?
I do have to laugh at the pickup on the $100m ITB – I totally missed that HAHA.
Only his brother the video king
Is Kikau a sell? I’m thinking of bringing in Nat Butcher for the Roosters upcoming run and don’t really want to be on the Kikau rollercoaster??
Kikau isn’t a sell yet. Still has money to be made and Butcher is a scary buy with Crichton fighting for his starting spot still.
Thoughts?
Wighton > Munster (Moses other half)
AFB > Taylan May (moving tago from centre to make this happen)
Need cash from afb to make Munster happen
Is it too early to boost? Thinking to add Randal > sterling (grant is other hook)
I like the first two trades there, the third one is a gut call on how you think Starling goes. Still not against it though!
No mention of Dearden…I guess there are better options? I am considering to sell Hasting think I will go straight for Munster
I think he’s a little too pricey for what he has to offer, not a long term hold in my eyes. If you’re looking for a short term cash grab then he’s definitely a shout.
Is Nanai a buy this week? I’d considered bringing him in prior to reading this.
I’m not against the idea of bringing him in now that Fermor has been ruled out.