Buy, Sell, Hold – R5

I think I speak for everyone here with the following suggestion:

Putting the banner tragedy aside, this week is all about one rookie and make sure you don’t miss out. Delete your team if you do. Next week is the week for Bronson Xerri and Chanel Harris-Tavita, hopefully they continue to perform well enough to warrant trading them in.

Best call – BUY Jayden Okunbor. Who would have thought we’d have such a gold plated cash cow come through so early this season, let alone one you can confidently put in your 17 each week?

Worst call – SELL Matt Gillett. Moving back to the right edge, he managed 84 including a try in a side that was ordinary at best. At $428k he could be a steal, especially if the Broncos sort themselves out.

BUY

Jayden Okunbor ($168,100 2RF|CTW – 102 last round, Average: 78.5, Break even -100)

If you took a risk last week to bring him in, (as I did to get Turbo in, swings and roundabouts etc…) you have an extra trade up your sleeve this week. If you took the risk to play him against the Storm you were rewarded handsomely. If you don’t trade him in this week then you should probably pack it in for the season. Somehow there’s only 25,000 trade ins for him right now and he was in 12,000 teams last week. What are the other nearly 100k coaches doing?

Kalyn Ponga ($542,200 FLB|5/8 – 88, AVG: 53.0, BE 73)

If only he’d been starting at fullback all season. Was pivotal in both of the Knights tries on the weekend and was significantly more involved. Anyone needing a Turbo replacement should be looking at either Ponga or RTS. He’s the second most traded in player this week and it’s easy to see why.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($582,400 FLB – 83, AVG: 77.0, BE 47)

Of course this was going to happen after I dragged him while singing Turbo’s praises last week. He’s probably 1b to Ponga’s 1a as replacements go despite some tough upcoming games against Souths this weekend and Melbourne in two weeks. The other feather in his cap is only being in 18% of sides compared to 32% for Ponga.

Cody Walker ($595,000 5/8 – 64, AVG: 66.3, BE 53)

If you need to replace Turbo and can shift someone down to fullback, Walker could be a great point of difference. Currently only in 7% of teams, he plays the first bye round and the Bunnies draw is incredible through the middle of the season. From now until the end of the bye period they play the Warriors, Bulldogs, Panthers, Broncos, Cowboys, Raiders, Tigers, Eels, Knights, Panthers, Tigers again, Manly and Cowboys again before facing the Dragons, Sharks and Storm from rounds 19-21. You probably couldn’t ask for a better run, just be aware that his floor is very low (base average is only 28 per game).

Corey Harawira-Naera ($445,300 2RF|CTW – 78, AVG: 55.5, BE 8)

After thinking that the CTW/2RF dual was dead in the pre-season due to the lack of legitimate options, we’re now looking at the possibility of having at least 5 players who could be in your 17 this week with those positions. Thankfully, CHN’s start to the year off the bench has limited his price increases – who would have known that picking your best 17 would result in your team doing well? With back to back 60+ scores, a total base average of 53.5 and a single digit BE this is the week to look at a second Dogs player as both he and Okunbor will play the first bye round. He’s also third among all Supercoach players for offloads per game, only behind teammate Kerrod Holland and Esan Marsters.

David Klemmer ($561,100 FRF – 78, AVG: 68.3, BE 47)

This one is probably more for Head to Head players as Klemmer will be missing for Origin. Klemmer is top in the NRL in pure base stats at 64.8, total base stats at 70.3 per game, and one of just three players to average more than 60ppg in pure base stats along with Paul Vaughan(!) and Jake Trbojevic. Imagine what his score will look like when he gets his first attacking stat of the season. Klemmer is still slightly under-priced given his average, and even though he will play Origin he looks like a keeper.

SELL

Tom Trbojevic ($691,200 FLB – 58, AVG: 65.9, BE 26)

A four to five week absence would have been reason enough to sell given his hamstring history. Up to nine weeks is a disaster for Manly, NSW and Supercoaches as you can’t have so much cash sitting idle. Luckily RTS is firing and Ponga is back to his best position so the options are there. Even with a low BE I couldn’t trade him back in straight away without seeing two to three weeks at full strength.

Dylan Napa ($408,300 FRF – 10, AVG: 53.8, BE 46)

A high ankle sprain has shut Napa down for the next month, and put a sudden stop to the slew of price rises he had coming up. With a BE of 46 and a month on the sidelines he’s a peaked (for now and could easily be moved to the likes of Junior Paulo, Alex Twal, Addin Fonua-Blake or even CHN. When he does return and the 10 moves out of his rolling average, he could be a great mid-season pickup.

Josh Hodgson ($503,200 HOK – 33, AVG: 43.3, BE 79)

If you didn’t sell two weeks ago you really need to dump him now. He’s putting up such terrible numbers from an 80 minute hooker that even Michael Lichaa’s old man couldn’t defend it. He’s already lost $90k in value and only managed 33 against the dreadful Cowboys.

Shaun Lane ($498,400 FRF|2RF – 36, AVG: 55.5, BE 92)

As mentioned in last week’s Buy, Sell, Hold, the thing to look for was how Lane performed without Dylan Brown in the side. The results were not positive, and Brad Arthur has stated he’s playing Lane wider to ensure he doesn’t overwork him and can play the full 80, allowing him to isolate one on one in attack. That spells death to his base stats, where he managed 45 for the first two rounds before dropping to 40 and then just 34 against the Sharks. This makes him borderline unplayable if he’s not grabbing attacking stats, or as we call it around here, a case of the Fitzgibbons. There’s also some concern about Lane suffering from an illness this week, which would make the decision to sell even easier.

Luke Garner ($343,100 2RF – 28, AVG: 52.0, BE 39)

After positing that Garner wasn’t Robbie Rochow 2.0, it sadly turns out that he was just with fewer minutes. A great candidate to punt for Okunbor after only managing 28 in 60 minutes. The Tigers four forward bench doesn’t favour him either.

Jahrome Hughes ($461,600 HLF|FLB – 40, AVG: 52.0, BE 70)

Looked very impressive in Round 1 scoring 74 but hasn’t passed 47 in his last three games, with only two try assists as his lone attacking stats during that time. Whilst there’s not a lot of players screaming to be picked at his positions, if you do have him in your fullback position he could be an option to downgrade via duals for Okunbor.

Robbie Farah ($655,800 HOK – 48, AVG: 84.5, BE 119)

As much as it seems insane to be trading someone averaging 84 a game, he’s another player whose attacking stats have dried up over the past fortnight and a decision needs to be made on him now. His last price rise of $4k came through this week and now at $655k he’s only about $35k away from Damien Cook. If you don’t trade this week he’s going to start losing cash and you’re almost committing to holding for a longer period.

HOLD

Jacob Host ($267,600 2RF|FRF – 25, AVG: 39.5, BE 2)

The injury to Korbin Sims has probably given Host an extra week of usefulness. Even though he’s named on the bench for the Dragons, he should still surpass his BE of 2 and be ready to be traded out next week. However, if you don’t have any other options to get Okunbor, then you should definitely be moving him this week.

Tevita Pangai ($530,900 FRF|2RF – 57, AVG: 63.0, BE 55)

It might be tempting to trade him out due to suspension, but he’s shown over the past two weeks that he’s able to play big minutes despite lingering concerns about his hamstrings. The last two rounds saw him play 70 and 67 minutes respectively, posting scores of 69 and 57. The most encouraging part of this is that his PPM has stayed relatively steady with increased minutes. The Broncos are a rabble at the moment, especially up front but for a two-week stint on the sidelines it’s not worth a trade as he’ll be back playing big minutes in Round 7.

Maika Sivo ($298,800 CTW – 37, AVG: 46.5, BE -34)

If you are looking to cull a cow early to make way for Okunbor, make sure it’s not Sivo (which it shouldn’t be anyway with that negative BE). You might think I’m stating the obvious but there’s triple figure trades of Sivo to Okunbor at the time of writing this. Surely those coaches have another way to get him? Due to George Jennings copping a multiple week suspension for a dangerous in the Canterbury Cup, Sivo’s spot is even more secure for the next month.

Shaun Johnson ($572,600 5/8|HLF – 0, AVG: 54.0, BE 59)

There are SJ trades for Mitchell Moses, Cameron Munster and Kalyn Ponga that individually are in the triple figure range. Yes, it’s a bit concerning he was a late out against the Eels with quad tightness but that’s hardly worth a rage trade to a flavour of the week like Moses who may not see a big score for the rest of the season.

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Smudge100
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Smudge100

Should I go Turbo to Ponga/RTS or Napa to a High Quality FRF (Sam Burgess/Klemmer) this week?

IANAGA
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IANAGA

ponga/rts

IANAGA
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IANAGA

@carlosthedwarf great write up, would you do garner to gillet or wait?

perrin_07
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perrin_07

Nice work Carlos!