BUY SELL HOLD – R3

After a rocky Round 1, things have returned to normal somewhat in the Supercoach world. That is if you ignore Nick sitting inside the top 250. Besides a serious injury to Jason Taumalolo, it’s a relatively straight forward week with a number of obvious sells meet some very obvious buys.

The buys represent an issue because you’re not going to fit all of them in without gutting your team. There’s also plenty of great points of difference, of which I’ve highlighted a few below. As I mentioned last season, it’s not Pokémon and you can’t catch them all. You’re going to have to let some of these cows run free.

Most of the players mentioned last week are still valid – notably, Briton Nikora who should be in 100% of teams, and John Bateman, or as he shall be referred to from here on in John Basegun. With Joe Tapine only set to miss 1-2 weeks, Basegun moving to an edge role isn’t a huge concern for me and I’d still expect a strong game from him.

The sells from last week still apply as well, and “my wife’s team” will finally get rid of Jordan Kahu.

Best callSELL Victor Radley. Followed up his sluggish 0.5ppm with a 0.3ppm against Manly. An absolute waste of a spot in your team at $400k.

Worst callBUY Michael Morgan. Was noticeably absent for most of the game against Brisbane, but still a hold for now (see below).

BUY

Jai Arrow ($598,000) 2RF – 110, Average: 85.0, Break even 26)

Arrow pumped out a massive 110 in just 70 minutes in a losing effort, including a massive 27 runs and two line breaks. When you add in his power base stats (tackle breaks and offloads) to his pure base stats, he’s averaging 76 per game just from those categories, ranking him first among all players and one of just three players averaging over 70 – keep this in mind for later. If I had to pick only one player this week to trade in for Taumalolo it would be him. If he was kicking goals he’d be the new God, not Rhyse Martin. How is he only in 25% of sides?

Sam Burgess ($560,000 2RF|FRF – 128, AVG: 98.5, BE -13)

Surgess has been on fire this year, smashing out 66 and 129 in his first two games under noted “Supercoach killer” Wayne Bennett. He’s the most popular option for those trading out Taumalolo (currently three times as many trade-ins as Arrow) and with upcoming games against the Titans, Sea Eagles, Warriors and Bulldogs it’s easy to see why.

It’s not as much of a slam dunk trade as you’d think with the low break even and soft draw. Yes, there are concerns with his history of injuries, head knocks and suspensions that you may have $600k sitting on the pine. He’s also 24th among all players in base stats per game at 49.0. Looking at his base + power stats, he’s averaging 55.0 per game, which ranks 23rd per game and a whopping 20ppg behind Arrow. Those attacking stats making up the other half of his average aren’t going to be there every week.

That said, he’ll have low break evens for the next fortnight as his 128 will sit in his rolling average for another two weeks. Combined with that draw he’s incredibly hard to pass up at this point before his price skyrockets. Burgess is also a dual position player, giving him another leg up on Arrow as front row options are thinner.

Braidon Burns ($286,000 CTW – 77, AVG: 73.5, BE -53)

Many Supercoaches will remember Burns as a failed cow from 2017, when he played 10 games averaging 27 and barely scraping a $50k increase in price by the end of the season.

What a difference two years makes, as Burns has put together back to back 70+ games to start the 2019 season. Even more impressive are his base stats at 34.0 per game, which gives him a decent floor when the attacking stats aren’t flowing.

He should still have a negative BE next week and the same juicy draw list above for Burgess. With cash creation a huge focus this early in the season, it would be hard to ignore a (relatively) cheap CTW with such a huge BE and ability to cross the line.

Luke Garner ($265,100 2RF – 50, AVG: 65.0, BE -43)

If you were sceptical of his first round 65 which included a try, his second round score helped erase a few of those doubts. His minutes have been consistent (67 and 68) and his score of 50 on the weekend was almost all base stats. His per minute base stats have been strong both games (0.7PPM) and overall PPM is just a shade under 1 (0.98).

The job security and minutes seem to be there, it’s nearly impossible to pass on a sub $300k backrower playing big minutes. If this sounds suspiciously similar to what was written about Robbie Rochow in Buy, Sell, Hold last year you’d be right. But the Tigers are firing on all cylinders and Garner isn’t nearly the defensive liability that Rochow was, with just one missed tackle compared to five for Rochow in his first two appearances last year.

A 50 average from here on in would see Garner pass $400k by Round 6 or 7 and even get close to $450k a few rounds later. For those who don’t have the cash to upgrade their mid rangers to Surgess or Arrow, moving down to Garner and banking some cash for the upcoming rounds could be a sensible option.

Lachlan Burr ($196,900 2RF – 29, AVG: 41.0, BE -17)

The former Titans forward has secured the Warriors #13 for the third straight week. His minutes were down in round 2, playing just 32 after 53 in the opening game. Even if he does lose the starting spot, Sam Lisone’s suspension for a crusher tackle should open up some more minutes through the middle for him if he ends up on the interchange bench. At under $200k he’s very hard to overlook.

Robbie Farah ($581,800 HOK – 123, AVG: 116.5, BE -42)

If you’re a Cook, Smith or Friend owner I wouldn’t be paying much attention here. Now if you have Kerrod Holland or Josh Hodgson stinking up your reserves then I’d be looking very closely at Farah this week. Of course, a triple figure average isn’t maintainable (although they do play the Dogs this week), but a 70 average would see him peak a touch under $700k. Now you’d need to use a second trade to make use of that price increase, but if you didn’t start with Damien Cook then using Farah as a bridge to get there is a pretty good use of two trades. Just keep in mind that holding him longer than a few weeks is going to negate any cash you might have generated. However, with no bench utility in sight he could be set for 80 minutes for a long time and a fixture inside your starting 17.

Clint Gutherson ($439,300 CTW|FLB – 92, AVG: 75.0, BE -6)

If only all of my players could play the Bulldogs every week. Looked every bit of his 2017 self, with base stats at 31 per game and now sits with a negative break even. Still only in 11% of teams which is right about point of difference territory. The Eels do play the Roosters this week though…

James Tamou ($423,500 FRF – 58, AVG: 82.0, BE -25)

Remember earlier how I mentioned that three players were averaging over 70 in base and power base stats? One was Arrow, another was Addin Fonua-Blake who has played just one game. The other is Tamou. Aussie Jim is sneakily averaging 82.0 and playing big minutes – 60 against the Eels and 57 against the Knights. He played just one game over 50 minutes in 2018 and the last time he spent 60 on the field was Round 22, 2015.

This isn’t sustainable but he’s in just 4% of teams and has a negative BE. You’re getting better output than David Klemmer for $100k cheaper and he could make you $50k with a score in the 40s this week. A bigger issue, however, is how his minutes would be affected by the upcoming return of Villiame Kikau.

Ken Maumalo ($370,000 CTW – 92, AVG: 79.0, BE -37)

With a huge negative BE and just 2% ownership, Maumalo represents a serious POD that will make you cash, a rare combination this early in the season. With plenty of CTW trades focused on Burns this week, Maumalo is another very interesting POD option but may not be worth the extra cash if you need spare dollars for the likes of Burgess and Arrow.

Dale Finucane ($432,900 2RF|FRF – 82, AVG: 67.5, BE 7)

Finishing up our run of PODS is the Storm backrower. Currently sitting seventh in pure base stats and eighth in pure base plus power base. Dual position, in just 3% of teams and playing in the best team in the competition.

SELL

Kerrod Holland ($428,100 CTW|HOK – 30, AVG: 33.0, BE 74)

It turns out that Holland wasn’t able to keep up his form from the end of 2018, and is an absolute must trade this week. His base stats are almost identical to 2018 (22 per game) but there’s no attacking stats to be found anywhere at the Bulldogs. His 30 on the weekend included six points from goal kicking as well. If he’s sitting as a HOK for your team, finding the cash to move up to Jake Friend or even a slight downgrade to Reed Mahoney (BE 0) is an option. If he’s clogging up your CTW, then you have a number of options like Burns, Gutherson or the PODs mentioned above.

Josh Hodgson ($592,100 HOK – 33, AVG: 40.0, BE 114)

The Raiders hooker looked to be under-priced and set for a big season after coming back from an ACL tear. That hasn’t come to fruition as Hodgson has had games of 48 and just 33 on the weekend. You can argue that his 33 came against the Storm, but McCullough managed 58 against them in Round 1. He might be worth a revisit later in the season as we approach the first bye round but he’s got to go right now before he starts leaking cash, either up to Cook, across to Farah or down to Friend.

Jason Taumalolo ($657,400 2RF – 19, AVG: 59.0, BE 98)

There was some hilarity on Friday evening with a player that 20% of coaches had captained leaving the field in the first half. Everyone likes to have a bit of fun with the banner curse but no one wants to see anyone injured. Taumalolo is expected to be out for 6-10 weeks with a grade 3 MCL tear. Hopefully, those who traded Nathan Brown to Taumalolo have better luck this week. At least with his price, you have your pick of backrowers, and if you don’t own Jai Arrow this is the week to correct it.

Gareth Widdop ($553,400 FLB|5/8 – 33, AVG: 24.5, BE 133)

The move to fullback has hampered Widdop’s output, as well as Corey Norman taking most of his playmaking responsibility. If he’d been putting out average scores you could make a case for holding him but he hasn’t even hit 50 points from this two games and would lose almost $75k with a score in the low 30s this week.

Nathaniel Roache ($246,00 CTW|HOK – 0, AVG: 56.0, BE -31)

Dollar store Holland is missing again through injury this week and the 11% of coaches who own him should probably take the opportunity to use $40k and grab Burns before it’s too late. You could argue for holding as he won’t lose money and may work his way back into the Warriors side once he returns from a calf injury, but the opportunity cost of holding is too great. If it wasn’t the first week of price changes, I’d probably list him as a hold given the lack of cheap hookers. Insert your own joke here.

Tom Opacic ($245,200 CTW – 52, AVG: 42.0, BE -4)

The last sentence from Roache applies for Opacic too. He could be back in the team shortly but do you want to miss out on the cash available this week?

HOLD

Michael Morgan ($409,200 HLF|5/8 – 24, AVG: 48.0, BE 38)

Morgan was almost invisible on the field in the second half of the Broncos game, either nursing a shoulder injury or sensibly hiding from the TPJ Missile that was taking out his teammates. Interestingly he had more almost the same amount of possessions (46) as he had the week prior against the Broncos (48) if you want any indication of how useful that stat is in isolation (not very, up there with completion rates for misinformation). The Cowboys have named a stronger backline, he still has an achievable BE this week and you’ve probably got bigger issues to deal with.

Angus Crichton ($646,900 2RF – 49, AVG: 30.5, BE 151)

Trent Robinson finally ended the week-long Supercoach nightmare by starting Crichton against the Sea Eagles on Saturday night. Yes, he may lose $75k with a 50 score this week, but he’s unlikely to get any cheaper unless his average drops below 55. If you didn’t trade him last week then there’s even less reason to jump off this week.

Mikaele Ravalawa ($168,100 CTW – 13, AVG: 23.0, BE 9)

There’s not much point trading out a base priced rookie who’s still starting, you’re not unlocking any extra cash by moving him now. If he falls over the line this week, he could easily add another $60k to his price. The exceptions would be if you had the cash to move up to a Burns or Bateman that would be starting in your CTW, or grabbing Nikora.

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Grave_Digger

Jo.Of and TPJ?

Y2Berts

Would you trade kahu or opacec to burns?
and then peachey downgrade to garner or upgrade peachey to bateman/finuecane

BT

Thanks Carlos. For once it’s good already having players in the buy column, none in the sell and only one in the hold. Been a good start, so waiting for the wheels to fall off!

BT

But in saying that, one trade for me this week – Host to Burns.

boink

What are people’s thoughts on Joe Ofa? Is he a def sell?

I’m thinking of whether I go joe ofa > surgess or lolo > surgess
Lolo won’t be losing any money this week so I can afford to sell next week?

ubeaut

Joe O won’t lose much money either with a BE of 54.
I’d sell Lolo if it makes your starting 17 stronger than if u sell Joe.

Rabs85

I’m selling JoeO this week but would be going Lolo to Sam if i was in your position.
JoeO isn’t a definite sell as he shouldn’t leak money but for my side he’s borderline best 17 and at $400k+ when my other options are <$250k (Garner, CNK) and likely to earn more than Joe.

supercoachrook

Capewell to burns
Holland to Friend
or
Hodgson to Cook
Holland to <315k HOK and miss burns?

tmann

Option 1: 1 trade Burns in for Burr.
Option 2: 2 trades Burns and Garner in and Sironen and Simonnsen out .

Thoughts please!!!