Buy, Sell, Hold – R21

A very important rule of Supercoach was reinforced in Round 20. You can agonise all you like over who to trade in and out, who to start and sit and picking the right reserves. But if you don’t get your captain correct, it doesn’t matter who you had on your 17 that week.

Clearly the best option moving forward is not to captain Teddy or Turbo at all, but captain some other spud like say Michael Morgan (no respectable team inside the top 10,000 would even own him anyway). That way you’ll never be disappointed that you picked the wrong one for captain. You’ll just be disappointed by having to watch Cowboys games and Paul Green fail to coach his way out of a paper bag.

Moving forward for the rest of the season, “buys” are interchangeable with “starts” and “sells” are interchangeable with “sits”. Everyone is a hold unless you have trades, and to be honest, who has any left besides Nick, who somehow has six left?

Best call – BUY James Tedesco. “He’s a legitimate captain option again this week facing the Titans at home.” If only I took my own advice.

Worst call – BUY Nathan Cleary. Seems to put in a lot of effort for minimal Supercoach output, and ended up with just 34 against the Dogs.

Buy

Mitchell Moses ($541,700 HFB|5/8 – 46, AVG: 64.6, BE 89)

The Eels weren’t particularly impressive against the Dragons, yet with Parra’s upcoming draw Moses is almost a must have for the run home. Their last five include three at Bankwest, facing Newcastle, Canterbury and Manly. Their other two are Gold Coast and Brisbane away. Even in games where the Eels have performed below expectations he’s been good, and the 46 on the weekend was his lowest score since Round 11. That’s right, the poster boy for rocks and diamonds in Supercoach went seven games in a row with a score above 58 points.

That consistency is the difference for Moses this season. Last year only had two consecutive games above 50 (Rounds 7 and 8), and when he dumped 134 on the Dragons at ANZ in Round 22, he followed that up with 10, 18 and -7. This year the Eels are travelling a lot better and Moses is part of it. Time to get on board the bandwagon.

Matthew Lodge ($579,200 FRF – 72, AVG: 62.8, BE 49)

If you’ve had enough of Andrew Fifita, you might want to have a look at the other Brisbane prop. You know, the one no one owns (in just 3% of teams). He hasn’t had a game of pure base stats lower than 50 since round 15, and that was only 49 in base. The increase is coming from tackle busts, where he has scored in double figures from that stat in his last three games. Even more impressive is that two of these games saw him play just 50 minutes, indicating he doesn’t need significant minutes just to post a big score. A nice point of difference with everyone else looking at David Klemmer or James Fisher-Harris.

Kenny Bromwich ($501,700 2RF – 124, AVG: 62.5, BE 7)

It might be a bit of chasing last week’s points following his massive 124 against the Broncos, but if you take a look at the Storm’s draw for the rest of the season Bromwich could be a fantastic POD or situational matchup that could win you a H2H final. The reason I’m not completely sold on him being a case of chasing last week’s points is that he’s currently priced at $501k, and earlier in the season he was valued in the high $500s. The value is there if he can find those attacking stats again.

Melbourne finish the season with games against Souths (away), Canberra (home), Gold Coast (home), Manly (away) and North Queensland (home). Two of those home games could be big scores for Kenny, and Souths are 8th in points conceded to left edge forwards, and they did concede 98 to Wade Graham down that side of the field last week. At only 6% ownership (hopefully if you did own him you didn’t trade him out last week) he’s another interesting POD for the run home, even if you don’t play him every week.

David Nofoaluma ($513,600 CTW – 37, AVG: 57.0, BE 113)

Consecutive scores of 37 for the Tigers winger have put him on the outer for most sides, but a very favourable matchup with the Bulldogs this week could result in a big score. The Dogs give up the second most points to left wingers in the competition at 61.4 per game and Nofo may be the benefit of this. He’s also only in 1% of teams, so if you do own him he’s a massive POD. He may not be someone you start of the rest of the season, but matchup wise you’re not going to be facing him in many other teams which is incredibly important for head to head finals.

Sell

Andrew Fifita ($451,400 FRF – 48, AVG: 61.6, BE 103)

Whilst 48 off the bench isn’t a terrible score, it’s not what you’d want from a starting front rower. He also only played 40 minutes, and only has one game above 50 minutes in his last five outings. Even with a PPM of 1.2 he’s not going to far north of 50 with those minutes, he really needs to be into the mid-50s to be putting up keeper scores. At sub 50 minutes, you’re basically praying for him to cross the line or put someone else over to break 60. Meanwhile David Klemmer is right there with one game under 50 minutes all season, which was against the Bulldogs after Origin 3.

Sam Burgess ($433,100 FRF|2RF – 28, AVG: 59.6, BE 76)

If you’ve held all the time you’d have to be both disappointed that Burgess nearly missed another game through suspension, yet also expecting it. Any sort of judiciary charge is going to result in Sam having yet another stint on the sidelines, probably when you need him for injury cover. Sporting a three round average of 45.3, or about what the average Supercoach player scores, there’s little reason to keep him unless you’re out of trades. And if you are, just park him on the bench for the rest of the season. Especially this week, as Melbourne concede just 49ppg to right edge backrowers, the only team in the competition to hold them under 50 a game.

Dylan Brown ($352,200 HFB|5/8 – 71, AVG: 46.9, BE 18)

The main reason to be selling Brown now is to avoid an auto emergency nightmare, as he was in Round 17 where he posted a score of 11. Granted he has had two 70 point games in his last three and if you’re low on trades he’s not a priority sell in any way. However, if you can find a way to upgrade him to the likes of Johnson, Moses or Munster this week you’d have to jump at that chance. Regardless he’s not someone you’d be starting in your top 17 outside of a massive injury crisis.

Brian Too ($504,800 CTW – 55, AVG: 58.1, BE 72)

Too is a base stat monster for a winger, with 34 and 37 in his last two games, but it’s not likely to continue this week. The Sharks are very stingy to right wingers this season, only allowing 36.8ppg to their opponents. This week is a perfect time to pick a higher upside player in your CTW and give Too a break.

Hold

Kotoni Staggs ($526,200 CTW|2RF – 51, AVG: 43.7, BE 48)

Staggs may possess the seventh best three round average in all of Supercoach at the moment (82.7), but when you get to beat up on the Bulldogs and Titans in consecutive weeks then everything is going to be artificially elevated. The Cowboys (or is that Titans, Wenin?) give up the third highest average to right edge players at nearly 53.0 a game, and Staggs will be lining up against the revolving door Coen Hess.

If you had enough trades and wanted to strengthen your team by bringing in a keeper I wouldn’t argue against it. Depending on where you have Staggs sitting he can be traded out to Jake Trbojevic for a profit, the likes of Ken Maumalo or Manu Ma’u for about $50k or take a flyer on someone like Wade Graham at 1.2% ownership and pocket $50k. But for this week he looks like a possible start depending on your CTW depth.

Ryan Matterson ($532,200 2RF – 57, AVG: 66.9, BE 81)

Since moving to lock, In the last two rounds Matterson has a total of 6 points from attacking stats. Just 4 points from effective offloads and 2 from ineffective offloads, all of which came against the Cowboys last Thursday. Facing the Bulldogs this week could result in him falling over for a try, but these aren’t April’s Bulldogs as the Panthers found out last week. I wouldn’t be selling him under any circumstance as a move back to the edge would be welcomed, instead just park him on the pine until he’s given a bit more freedom.

Clint Gutherson ($444,600 CTW|FLB – 33, AVG: 57.2, BE 48)

Some of you may have been all in on King Gutho against the Saints on the weekend and come up short. With the Eels dream run home coming up, why would you be giving up now? Gutherson could be a start in every one of those games depending on your CTW options. The Knights are middle of the pack for giving up points to fullbacks at 52.5 per game, and even Tom Trbojevic didn’t put a huge score on them in a blowout. If you’re not upgrading to a legitimate top 3 CTW (Mitchell, Ma’u, Bateman) then it’s a sideways trade at best.

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Marstermind
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Marstermind

Great write up Carlos!
Already have Cleary, SJ and Ponga in the halves, would it be worth nuffing D Brown for cash to upgrade a bench forward?
Four gun halves seems excessive but happy to hear other thoughts??

Living on the edge
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Gun
Living on the edge

He might still be important in the last couple rounds after injury strikes. Especially with most owning SJ and Ponga.

IANAGA
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IANAGA

nice write up carlos…surprised sivo isnt there as a buy and too is a back up and great 6th ctw option, im holding

DoughnutPunchers
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DoughnutPunchers

Nofo is one I’m really considering. Must win H2H this week and his is a decent matchup.

Bethany_B
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Bethany_B

I own him and am playing him but his draw isn’t amazing after this week.

trenticus
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trenticus

I have 2 options this week (bare in mind iv’e already locked in the minor premiership in my league so it’s okay if i lose this week) do I go Fifita/Burgess>Klemmer/Fisher-Harris & To’o/Sivo>Ma’u or do I use my money to nuff Burgess to Ford & Bring in C. Smith.

Hypebeast19
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Hypebeast19

I’d go Burgess > Klemmer and To’o > Ma’u.

rico
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Keeper
rico

Great trades

stormers
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Keeper
stormers

I wouldn’t be buying any of the players you mentioned and Too is a hold

Living on the edge
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Living on the edge

Don’t buy 3 player’s with a 60 average this season?

Hypebeast19
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Hypebeast19

Mitchell Moses has the best draw to finish the season and is the highest scoring half this year! Definitely a buy.

DDQ75
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DDQ75

Should have McInnes as a buy imo

BT
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BT

Thanks Carlos.Keen on a POD forward like Wade or KBrom, but will get one more week out of Staggs i think.

Thoughts on Josh Papalii?