Buy, Sell, Hold – R18

There’s nothing like the perils of writing a Supercoach article after an Origin game. Basing your whole on one player who wasn’t officially ruled out Saturday isn’t ideal. Things could be worse though, as owners of both Tom Trbojevic and James Tedesco found out as they copped an AE.

Thankfully they’ll both line up this week. I hope…

The hazards of nuffing out your bye players has also reared its head this week, with some selections proving it pays to carefully consider who your nuffs will be. Josh Kerr is in the #14 for the Dragons, while Tom Eisenhuth and Jed Carwright are also on the bench for their respective teams. Even Tristan Sailor has shown up in the Dragons reserves. That’s why someone like Albert Hopoate is a great nuff, due to his ACL injury he shouldn’t appear for Manly during the last 8 weeks of the season and could be looped easily.

Best Call – HOLD Anthony Milford. A successful return from what was thought to be a serious knee injury, notching 80 points.

Worst Call – BUY Tom Trbojevic. If only my deadline was late Friday night instead of Thursday afternoon. I did recommend waiting until 2pm Saturday though.

Buy

Tom Trbojevic ($768,500 FLB – 0 last round, Average: 102.4, Break even 43)

Here’s take two on Turbo after last week’s misstep. He’s played 11 games at Lottloand since the start of the 2018 season. The scores from these games are mind-boggling – 95, 158, 69, 67, 27, 115, 68, 111, 194, 58 and 167. Five out of eleven games in triple figures. Just one game with fewer than 58 points, which was the 27 that came against Melbourne. An average at home of 102.6ppg. He’s still only in 22% of teams. If you’re serious about your ranking this year you’re finding a way to get him in this week.

Mitchell Moses ($587,900 HFB|5/8 – 86, AVG: 66.4, BE 64)

The Eels cushy schedule for the last 8 rounds of the season is one of the main reasons to seriously look at Moses this week. Not only does he possess the top average for halfbacks this season (66.4ppg), but the Eels have four of their last eight at home against the Warriors, Knights, Bulldogs and Sea Eagles. Their away games aren’t particularly challenging either – Manly, St George-Illawarra, Gold Coast and Brisbane.

One of the most pleasing aspects of Moses’ recent output has been his consistency. Historically known as one of the biggest rocks and diamonds Supercoach options, his five-game average is 81.0 and hasn’t had a score lower than 64 during that period. He’s only had one score lower than 46 going back to round 8 as well.

The other benefit of pairing Moses with someone like Shaun Johnson is that you can switch them around with their dual positions and play the one with the best matchup, or both. Yes, you’re probably paying overs at $587k if you look at the next buy, but you’re locking in the top half in Supercoach for 2019. Think of how absurd that would have sounded at the start of the season.

Daly Cherry-Evans ($484,300 HFB – 93, AVG: 65.8, BE 29)

At just 8% ownership, Cherry-Evans is a great point of difference at halfback DCE is as capable of some ordinary games as Moses is (24 against the Dragons recently), but he’s $100k cheaper for the same average in a week where you’ll most likely need every cent. Manly’s draw isn’t as cushy as the Eels as they play Melbourne twice, but if you’ve paired him with another half who can cover those games he’s a great option to have.

John Bateman ($530,100 CTW|2RF – 71, AVG: 67.5, BE 70)

If you’ve death riding Bateman in the hopes of his price dropping to something more affordable there’s good news and bad news. The good news is that it has dropped and most likely bottomed out now at $530k, but the bad news is that waiting for the five rounds for it to drop probably wasn’t worth the $60k you’ve saved. His five-round average is 66.4 over that period, fifth among CTW eligible players and his overall average is still second for his position, trailing only Latrell Mitchell.

David Klemmer ($522,600 FRF|2RF – 56, AVG: 64.9, BE 63)

With most of the top 10 averaging forwards this season sporting ownership percentages in the 30s, 40s and 50s, Klemmer will be a point of difference for the run him, with just 15% ownership currently. That shouldn’t change dramatically this week either as he’s not even in the top 10 traded in players at the time of writing. His average of 64.9 is fourth among FRF eligible players and hasn’t had a score below 50 all season. As long as his minutes hover around the high 50s and low 60s, he’s a keeper.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ($463,500 CTW|FLB – 111, AVG: 60.9, BE -30)

Did some of us sell CNK too early? In his last two games his base stats were back (43 and 37) and his evasive stats in Round 16 alone (28) were nearly higher than his previous five weeks, let alone his 40 in Round 17. If he can continue close to these numbers, then he’s worth a spot in your side as a 4th/5th CTW. The good news is that you can trade him back in this week for Briton Nikora and about $50k.

Sell

Briton Nikora ($418,200 2RF|CTW – 45, AVG: 59.4BE 49)

Two of his last three games featured base stats under 40, his average has dipped under 60ppg for the first time this season and he hasn’t scored a try since Round 8 and has just one line-break since Round 7. His total base average is still third among CTW eligible players at 43.9 per game, but you can’t carry three or four pure base stat players in your CTW and hope to see green arrows. There needs to be one or two players with a high ceiling to compliment them, whether it’s Mitchell, Ken Maumalo or a POD like David Nofoaluma. If you’re very light on trades you could hold him as a 5th CTW given a number of home games the Sharks have on the run home, but he’s no longer an automatic selection in your 17 each week.

Esan Marsters ($432,300 CTW – 30, AVG: 56.6, BE 43).

With trades at a premium and an achievable BE, Marsters could be held (without wanting to sound like a broken record, unless it’s for Tom Trbojevic). However, his next two games are against the Raiders and Knights who are 15th and 10th respectively at points per minute conceded to CTW over the past five rounds, and 13th and 9th for the whole season. He’s also lost the goal kicking which was contributing 7.6ppg to his average this season. That would put him at 49ppg, or barely above average (44-45ppg)

There are enough choices in CTW this year, both safe (Bateman, Ma’u, Maumalo, Corey Harawira-Naera) and unpredictable (Mitchell, CNK, Nofoaluma) that there’s no need to carry someone like Marsters unless dictated by lack of trades. I can’t think of a situation where you’d play him ahead of the above options if he stayed in your squad as a fifth CTW.

Sam Burgess ($454,400 2RF|FRF – 0, AVG: 62.0, BE 57)

Still owned by 26% of teams – are there really that many zombie sides? If you are holding, it’s time to nuff him out or upgrade as he’s been ruled out indefinitely. News from Fox League today is that Burgess has had even more complications from his shoulder surgery and needs a drip inserted into his heart to control infection. According to NRLPhysio, it’s not as dire as it sounds and is standard for most patients who need IV antibiotics and easier to manage than a drip in the hand. There’s a chance he could be back by next week but I wouldn’t be wishing anything but the best for his recovery from this and hopefully, we see him back on the park soon.

Aiden Tolman ($454,000 FRF – 10, AVG: 57.0, BE 86)

The Bulldogs front-rower is missing this round due to bruised ribs. These sorts of injuries can be extremely painful and are usually more about pain tolerance associated with movement and collisions. Could that mean reduced minutes for Tolman? Even without a reduction in playing he’s probably not worth holding unless you’ve gone max trades and burnt through them all.

Jacob Host ($413,000 FRF|2RF – 9, AVG: 39.8, BE 93)

Another impressive quiet achiever this season that pushed through the $400k barrier after 83 points in Round 15. This week he’s been named in the reserves for the Dragons after only 9 points last week, and the return of James Graham probably indicates he will struggle for minutes moving forward even if he does make it back to the interchange bench. A great option to downgrade to a dual nuff this week.

Euan Aitken ($433,400 CTW – 35, AVG: 43.9, BE 82)

Aitken has done his job, even if his scores in Round 16 and 17 were average. If you were lucky enough to trade him in when he bottomed out, you’ve pocketed nearly $150k and he’s become a bridge to a keeper CTW or a downgrade to fund a keeper.

Kurt Mann ($317,300 CTW|HOK – 26, AVG: 31.2, BE 55)

There were hopes of Mann either producing points or cash for Round 16 and regrettably, for owners, he’s produced neither. A three-round average of just 39.3 and an increase of around $40k in the last month makes him another downgrade option this week, as he’ll be an auto emergency issue moving forward.

Hold

Shaun Johnson ($450,300 HFB|5/8 – 98, AVG: 52.3, BE 46)

The short-sightedness of selling Johnson this week is a classic overreaction by coaches. Yes, there’s a chance he’s missing this week, but he’s not even seven days off nearly scoring triple figures on the Melbourne Storm. Unless you’re trading him out to fund the acquisition of Tom Trbojevic, spending a valuable trade on DCE or Mitch Moses is a very sideways move with the lack of depth in the halves this season.

Sio Siua Taukeiaho ($503,400 FRF|2RF – 36, AVG: 60.9, BE 87)

Returning from a concussion TKO played merely 33 minutes last weekend, although he still scored at more than 1.0 points per minute during that time. The drop in minutes also coincided with the returns of Jake Friend and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. JWH’s return shouldn’t be too much of a concern, as Taukeiaho was still seeing minutes in the 50s when he was playing. Friend is more of an issue, as TKO has only played 46, 53 and now 33 minutes in games where Friend has played this season due to Radley spending more time at lock. You can straight swap him to Klemmer this week and have fewer concerns about his minutes being eaten into, but ideally, he’s a hold to have another look at his minutes.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($570,400 FLB – 113, AVG: 72.7, BE 54)

It’s not often you see someone in the top 10 traded out players a week after they score triple figures, but here we are. As expected most of them are to Turbo, or a nuff to fund Turbo like the Bulldogs Jared Anderson. Those trading him to James Tedesco would be best waiting at least a week if not two as Teddy has a triple-figure BE this week and possibly one in Round 19.

Cameron Munster ($568,800 FLB|5/8 – 90, AVG: 69.3, BE 67)

Yes, it’s disappointing we won’t get to see him tear up a hapless Titans squad this round, but he’ll be back a week later and a very important part of your team for the run home. The Storm also faces the Titans again in Round 23, so you’ll get to see Munster carve them up then (career average of 88.3 with a lowest score of 68 against the Gold Coast).

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TurkeySnow
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Gun

Great article. Thoughts on mau? Still a buy? Has an amazing run home!

13th Viking
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13th Viking

I’m thinking the banner is automatically selected by the player that is most mentioned (talked up) during the week in the trade talk & related articles… please stop it as I already have him.

Cardy
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Keeper
Cardy

Priceless as always Thanks Carlos

Bethany_B
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Gun
Bethany_B

Great work Carlos. I’m going against your advice and keeping Nikora though (even playing him this week as Warriors give more away to right side 2RFs than the corresponding oppositions for my other backup CTW (Gutho, Fergo and Burns)

polarbear
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Keeper
polarbear

I was pondering SJ > DCE at one stage…Face Slap! Thanks for the article

redvforlife
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redvforlife

Have Masters in my starting CTW thinking of getting Maumalo for him thoughts

APayneInTheHaas
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Gun
APayneInTheHaas

What’s ur current CTW?

redvforlife
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redvforlife

Mitchell
Masters
Batman
Ma’u

APayneInTheHaas
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APayneInTheHaas

If not maumalo, you should consider nofo as a POD.

redvforlife
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redvforlife

Went maumalo mate thanks for replying

Mighty tigs
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Gun
Mighty tigs

Maumalo has a very tough run, not a buy IMO

redvforlife
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redvforlife

Ended up changing it to nofo a much more suitable run home IMO

APayneInTheHaas
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Gun
APayneInTheHaas

cheers for using my thoughts mate

TurkeySnow
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Gun

Problem with Tigers is if they drop out of the hunt for 8. Warriors are just behind them but Maumalo has solid base and has proved himself against top sides that you usually expect low scores from players against.

BT
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Gun
BT

Thanks Carlos. And thanks for your services this year, Nikora and Marsters!

JunctionBlock
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Borderline keeper
JunctionBlock

Has Sironen ever been on the buy list or am I about three weeks too late for that boat?

Ev
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Sleeper
Ev

wayyyyy to late. you cant even see that ship on the horizon anymore….

Ev
Member
Sleeper
Ev

at best he was a bye round cover that hit a purple patch the last few weeks and those that had him lapped it up, but he’s far from a buy IMO with so many other genuine guns in that position.

APayneInTheHaas
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Gun
APayneInTheHaas

But late

IANAGA
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IANAGA

Is cs9 a buy or wait considering half the storm squad has been rested

APayneInTheHaas
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Gun
APayneInTheHaas

If u have enough he is a buy. This game wil really test how he will handle it by himself this year

Unkie Moe
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Unkie Moe

No Cook in the buy discussion??

Rep period gone, 137k below his starting price and coming up against worst team to defend hooker this year who he put back to back tons on last year.

Catfish
Editor
Gun

I mean he’s 43% owned already so maybe the assumption is that 99.5% of people still playing already have him!

Unkie Moe
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Unkie Moe

True but for those that don’t he’s prime for the taking at the moment… thought he might just get a passing mention.

perrin_07
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perrin_07

i disagree about selling surgess. without george, he is their one leader. massive ceiling. really see him outscoring murray when hes back. great pod play

grande212
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Gun
grande212

Any player that comes back form shoulder interventions loses +/-10 avg points. Its simply not worth it