Funny how NSW win another series and the SC Report Podcast (helmed by Queenslanders) takes a week off. That’s the sort of poor attitude that costs you Origin games. But I digress.
The final stretch is upon us, but not without one more hurdle – Round 17. If last year is anything to go by, there will be carnage this week. I ended up with only 16 players available in 2018 and needed to hang on to all of my bye coverage players just to get that number.
As always during this time, it’s really important to plan ahead with your trades and make them as late as possible. There will be some players not backing up from Origin, and while Trent Robinson has done us a solid by not naming James Tedesco and Boyd Cordner, someone will get rested that was expected to back up.
Unfortunately, at the time of writing this there’s no indication of other origin players backing, so as always check out Stileys’ late mail and say a prayer for him this week. He’s’ going to need all the help he can get.
Best Call – BUY Latrell Mitchell. Saved many coaches from the indignity of having to captain Shaun Johnson. Like Turbo, he’s a must-have for the last part of the season and you’ll regret not having him.
Worst Call – BUY Shaun Johnson. Couldn’t have gotten this one more wrong, and should have stuck with my gut that suggested his form against the Dogs was an anomaly. With the lack of depth in the halves and players backing up from Origin, he’s worth holding but seeing him get hooked in the 77th minute last weekend is concerning
Tom Trbojevic ($768,500 FLB – 0, AVG: 102.4, BE 43)
Ignore the holds listed later – if you have to move one of them to get Turbo in this week then do it. A 102.4 average from five games including a 58 in 40 minutes due to a busted leg speaks for itself. The Sea Eagles do have some tough games coming up, including two against Melbourne but the pain of not owning him is greater than worrying about his upcoming opponents.
He’s still only in 18.7% of teams and probably won’t be any higher than 21-22% ownership by the time this round starts. It’s not often the most dangerous player in Supercoach is almost a POD. If you have the cash and you don’t trade him in this week then you’re doing yourself a disservice. Just make sure you wait until he’s actually named at 2pm on Saturday before pulling the trigger.
Ryan Matterson ($609,700 2RF – 101, AVG: 69.8, BE 64)
Matterson is currently the eighth highest scoring player in Supercoach by average, and is only owned by 28% of coaches. If you look at 2RF only, he’s only behind Jason Taumalolo’s 84.2ppg for season average. How his ownership is below 30% is a mystery, unless everyone else was expecting him to play Origin 3.
Luke Keary ($397,100 5/8 – 105, AVG: 55.5, BE 38)
With most coaches possessing any number of halves who are injured or being rested after Origin, Keary’s successful return from concussion has come at a great time. If you take out his 9 minute game due to a concussion in Round 11, Keary is averaging 60.7 for the season, which would place him 7th among all halves. You’re getting someone posting keeper scores at a very significant discount – no other half scoring in that range is less than $400k. There will be concerns about him missing more time with another head knock, but as a backup half he’s an excellent choice this week, and is only in 9% of teams currently.
Manu Ma’u ($519,900 CTW|2RF – 0, AVG: 63.0, BE 45)
He might be off to England at the end of the season, but there’s still plenty of time for him to be a valuable contributor to your Supercoach side. For all the concerns about minutes with Nathan Brown returning, he’s only played one game under 80 minutes since Round 12 and that was 68 minutes due to a head knock against the Sharks. His average of 63 ranks him fourth among CTW eligible players, which is easily keeper territory and
Dual Nuff ($168,100 – 0, AVG: 0.0, BE 30)
With Xavier Coates and Herbie Farnsworth stinking it up in the Broncos backline with scores that would make Darius Boys blush, it’s time to look at some dual position players to trade in who won’t feature for the rest of the season but give your team some flexibility with trades or reserves. The key thing to look for besides dual position status is how late the nuff will play, as you won’t be able to effectively use the VC Loophole if they’re playing on a Friday at 6pm when your VC plays at 8pm.
Josh Kerr is still probably the best option with the number of late round games the Dragons have, even if he’s slightly above base price now ($171,800). Basically anyone from the Dragons, Raiders or even the Roosters will give you the best option for a late round VC Loop. Pick your nuffs carefully, as SC dual nuff Hall of Famer Jed Cartwright has just become a serious AE issue after being named on the Panthers interchange bench.
Matt Moylan ($367,000 5/8|FLB – 40, AVG: 45.9, BE 46)
Cronulla couldn’t beat the “worst Broncos team in years” according to Wenin. I’d be punting any of the Sharks playmakers as soon as I could this week after that performance, but injuries have probably given Shaun Johnson a reprieve for most owners. Moylan’s ability to disappear for multiple sets in a row, reluctance to dive on the ball a few metres out from his goal line and yet another hamstring issue have him on my never again list.
Robbie Farah ($364,200 HOK – 27, AVG: 57.0, 76)
The 26ppg disparity between his current season average and five round average (30.6) says it all with Farah. He hasn’t played 80 minutes since Round 10 and not more than 60 in the last two. If you take out his first two rounds where he scored triple figures, his season average is just 47.8. He’s no longer relevant sadly and it is time to find some cash to bring in a Cameron McInnes or Cameron Smith.
Michael Morgan ($487,200 HFB|5/8 – 0, AVG: 54.1, BE 44)
Morgan looks to be missing at least one week and probably more due to being knocked out on the final Origin game. You could move him to Keary this week and pocket some cash to help fund a Mitchell or Trbojevic upgrade.
Joseph Manu ($485,400 CTW – 22, AVG: 45.4, BE 90)
Manu was the unfortunate recipient of an Esan Marsters elbow on the weekend and missed nearly half the game, resulting in a poor score of 22. He’s still made over $100k since the triple figure score against the Bulldogs, but given that he’s in doubt this weekend from the knock he picked up he would be a prime candidate to trade out. Another $100k could get you Mitchell, or just $65k to John Bateman.
Patrick Herbert ($308,200 CTW – 0, AVG: 40.4, BE 57)
Another bye coverage disaster, with a hamstring injury keeping him out of not only Round 16 but 17 as well. Not a priority trade this week as he won’t lose any cash, but owners may have their hands forced due to lack of numbers.
Anthony Milford ($466,700 5/8 – 0, AVG: 50.0, BE 100)
Of course the only game he missed was the one game everyone needed him for. He’s gone from possibly missing the rest of the season to lining up at fullback this week. A miraculous recovery that wouldn’t be out of place in a Queensland origin camp where viruses and ankle injuries come and go within hours. He’s worth holding on as a backup half for at least another week or two to check how the move to fullback influence his scoring.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($546,300 FLB – 41, AVG: 69.8, BE 82)
Unless you’re trading him out to Tom Trbojevic, RTS is worth hanging on to this week as Tedesco is absent and numbers could be an issue. Round 18 or 19 look to be the perfect time to trade him out for the run home.
Kurt Capewell ($331,000 CTW|2RF – 55, AVG: 49.3, BE 48)
After providing a solid 55 points for Round 16, he’s likely to keep a spot in the Sharks starting line-up due to Wade Graham’s hamstring injury that will keep him out at least two weeks. Capewell could be a useful number for this week and shouldn’t lose any more cash before you move him on before Graham returns.
Bronson Xerri ($438,700 CTW – 60, AVG: 52.9, BE 76)
He’s lost a ton of cash over the past two weeks due to the HIA affected 6 points in Round 14, but he still has a five-round average of 66 during that period. If you look at his last five full games, his five-round average is 74. He may not be a starting CTW for the run home but with some favourable home games in their schedule, Xerri may be a great 5th CTW.