Buy, Sell, Hold – R15

The rep week break couldn’t have come at a better time for those of us who didn’t play Tom Trbojevic, let alone captain him. Those who did rocketed up the rankings (congrats Bear!) and have one less trade to worry about this week.

And aren’t there plenty of trades to worry about. With available this round, it’s even more important than usual to pay attention to the late mail as that’s five mistakes you can make by trading in someone before they’re confirmed to be playing. It’s worth planning your trades in advance, and having a dry run of making them one by one if possible before the first lock out to see if you have other options if someone from Origin doesn’t back up.

Best Call – BUY Ken Maumalo. Smashed out 104 in a low scoring round and still looks like a great buy this week.

Worst Call – HOLD Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. Hoping he’d get some attacking stats was obviously too much to ask for, as CNK ended up with a horrible 17.

BUY

Tom Trbojevic ($737,400 FLB – 167 last round, Average: 109.8, Break even 33)

Can you really afford to be without the new king of Supercoach? The last time he played the Titans he scored 194 against them. Granted it was at Brookvale where he averages close to 100 a game, and the Titans are very stingy at giving up points to fullbacks (well, relative to how much they leak points elsewhere). His record away from home isn’t as strong as at Brookvale – Turbo averages 102.6ppg at home since the start of the 2018 season compared to 61.1ppg away. Even taking that into account, he punished the Warriors for 152 in Round 3 at Christchurch. It would take a brave coach to think he couldn’t do it again this weekend on the Gold Coast.
If you don’t grab him this week, he’ll likely be $800k and nearly impossible to trade in post Origin and there will probably be a game late in the season where he scores 100 in a half and you’ll be physically ill if you don’t own him. I wouldn’t want to be death riding him this week, or any week for the rest of the season.

Ryan Matterson ($600,600 2RF – 74, AVG: 68.2, BE 61)

Given his status as 18th man for the New South Wales side, it might be worth waiting a week for Matterson, to ensure he’s not selected for Game three and will play in Round 16. However, he’s the fourth highest 2RF eligible player by average, around the same per game output as Cameron Murray and John Bateman and around 3ppg higher than Jake Trbojevic. Even if he misses Round 16, he’s still vital for the run home and worth getting in your side sooner rather than later. Surprisingly, he’s the top traded in player this week at over 9,600 trades, just ahead of Turbo at 9,400.

Jazz Tevaga ($380,000 HOK|2RF – 53, AVG: 47.5, BE 72)

Lining up in the #13 jersey, Tevaga is one of the most intriguing options this week due to the injury to Tohu Harris. In non-injury affected games, he’s averaging 55.0ppg, mostly starting off the interchange bench. His dual position flexibility gives you options as well if one of your gun hookers suffers a significant injury, allowing you to flick Tevaga to HOK and bring in a backrow keeper. If you’re not running dual hookers, then Tevaga is a $200k saving on Cameron Smith or Cameron McInnes and could produce 80-90% of their scores, allowing you to strengthen your team elsewhere. He’s not vital this week with a BE in the 70s but should definitely be tracked closely this week, although he won’t be in only 696 teams for long.

Shaun Johnson ($474,600 HFB|5/8 – 39, AVG: 47.0, BE 125)

A 125 break even would usually indicate waiting a week on a player, but with so few halfback options available to play it may pay to take a punt on Johnson a week early as the Sharks are playing the Bulldogs and could run up a huge score. The other side of that coin is that Chad Townsend seems to be commanding most of the ball, and the Bulldogs tend to give up most of their Supercoach points through to forwards and centre/wings. Despite being historically abysmal, they’re only giving up the 7th most PPM to halfbacks, although it’s a little higher to 5/8 at 13th.

Dylan Brown ($232,800 HFB|5/8 – 0, AVG: 48.0, BE -22)

Brown’s return could be a blessing for those with Nathan Cleary and Thomas Dearden unavailable for the next few rounds. If you don’t have the cash to go with a (historically) premium option like Johnson, Brown will cover you for everything but Round 16 before Cleary returns.

Joseph Manu ($366,500 CTW – 136, AVG: 45.6, BE -32)

This is the last chance of the season to make some extra cash, and with Manu’s negative breakeven he’ll make $100k by averaging 45 over the next two games and could easily be traded straight for a fallen gun. Whilst that’s not significantly high enough to be out of the question, it is concerning that 50% of his games have been in the 20s this year, as well as another game of 31. If he averages 30, he’ll still make about $80k but lose most of it unless you trade him immediately after Round 16. One I’d only recommend if you have the trades to cash him out when needed.

Tevita Pangai ($454,100 2RF|FRF – 64, AVG: 56.0, BE 44)

With two scores over 50 in his last two appearances, scored at 0.9 and 1.2PPM respectively, it appears that the Pangai from the first month of the season is back. His minutes are up over 50 again but how much of that is due to teammates missing? At just $454k and dual position he could be very handy 17th/18th man for the run home if he continues to regain his early season form.

SELL

Jai Arrow ($543,200 2RF – 40, AVG: 62.9, BE 108)

Unfortunately, the injury bug has bitten Arrow again after suffering a syndesmosis injury that will see him miss anywhere from six to twelve weeks. He’s flirting with never again territory with his inability to stay on the field through injury and coaching rotations.

Junior Tatola ($375,400 FRF – 39, AVG: 42.7, BE 70)

The quiet achiever of cash cows this season, Tatola has added $151k to his starting price and provided a very handy 68 during the first bye weekend. The time to cull him has come, with five trades available this week and a BE that he’s unlikely to hit.

Siliva Havili ($357,100 2RF|HOK – 43, 36.1, BE 46)

With Josh Hodgson named this week for the Raiders, there’s no potential for any more price rises from Havili. If you jumped from Round11 then you’ll pocket about $80k which isn’t a bad outcome, just not as profitable as initially expected.

Mitch Barnett ($515,100 2RF – 44, AVG: 56.9, BE 75)

The perils of bye planning. Hopping on Barnett early looked like a shrewd move a few weeks back but he’ll now miss the vital Round 16 due to a suspension for a crusher tackle. Thankfully at his current price there’s a multitude of options available led by Taukeiaho.

Shaun Lane ($454,600 2RF|FRF – 31, AVG: 55.9, BE 79)

The Eels backrower has had an up and down season Supercoach wise and his last performance was surely enough to have even his most ardent supporters clicking the trade out button. A very pedestrian 31 against the Broncos with a PPM of just 0.4 isn’t going to cut it and with a BE of 79 this week it’s the perfect time to cut bait.

Tohu Harris ($482,700 2RF – 45, AVG: 58.8, BE 71)

A stress fracture in his foot will see Harris miss six weeks, which unfortunately rules him out of POD contention for Round 16. Once a set and forget keeper, Harris is still averaging a respectable 58.8 per game, and is only owned by 3% of coaches. A trade down to Tevaga looks promising.

Thomas Dearden ($221,000 HFB – 0, AVG: 28.8, BE 30)

Five trades and/or Dylan Brown’s return should spell the end of Dearden for most coaches. A single downgrade should provide enough cash for most coaches to turn Dearden into someone who can play in your 17 for the next month.

HOLD

Nathan Cleary ($503,300 HFB – 74, AVG: 59.2, BE 62)

There’s a dearth of options at halfback this year, with only four players averaging over 60 per game. They’re led by Mitchell Moses (2019 is wild), Daly Cherry-Evans, Cade Cust and Ben Hunt, with Cleary is sitting just below that with his 59.2 per game. Even with him missing at least the next few games with an ankle injury, there just aren’t the options worth trading him out for unless you’re swimming in trades. You’ll want him back eventually and it’s not like the fullback position where you have nearly half a dozen serious options and could justify trading out the likes of James Tedesco.

Andrew Fifita ($579,700 FRF – 58, AVG: 67.3, BE 57)

Similar to Cleary, Fifita is one of the top front rowers available and whilst he won’t cover Round 16 anymore, we know exactly when he’ll be back from suspension. Just use it as another shining example of bye planning being a mugs game and hold.

Bronson Xerri ($549,200 CTW – 6, AVG: 54.9, BE 85)

Due to a head knock limiting him to all but 25 minutes in the Sharks last game, Xerri has some colossal break evens approaching and will shed a fair bit of value over the next two rounds. A 30 average would see him drop to $430k, 40 would see him fall to $450k. Those sound like significant losses but with the cost of trade being in the region of $100k, trading him out to player who also covers Round 16 is very sideways. And if he drops another 100+ game you’ll be kicking yourself, just like those who sold him early are. If you’re playing head to head, then he’s probably a sell if you can bring in a genuine keeper.

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Nick
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Nick

Is it likely Tevaga to play bench Rnd 16?

WeninRome
Admin
Gun

Who knows what happens but in any case, it should be a relatively safe 50 points.

The Duke
Member
Gun
The Duke

Thanks, as always Carlos. Food for thought.

SupercoachGodsBeNice
Member
Gun

Thoughts on Hughes?

Have considered him as a back up to SJ and play in case of emergency

Will have to hold him the rest of the way if I bring him in

kegs kings
Member
Gun
kegs kings

I would love to hear your opinion on uele as a buy for the next couple of weeks then a trade to someone like kikau

ithilmar
Member
Gun
ithilmar

Interested to know what’s a Surgess owners are doing? Almost back, keep as an extra option for the run home or move along for a Rd 16 number?

dropya
Member

I’m personally holding, the dual position as an 18/19th man with Kerr

Serc
Editor
Keeper

I’m holding too – being named on the extended bench this week surely guarantees he plays in R17

I also bought him relatively cheap just before R12 as well, so I only lose money if I sell at this point

ithilmar
Member
Gun
ithilmar

Thanks, was looking at ways to get in Matto or TKO but will hold this week at least and reassess.

BT
Member
Gun
BT

Thanks Carlos. Havili to Tevega sounds good. Will do that this week as Havili on the bench will lose money. Keen on Dearden to DCE, but might wait a week on that one.

kc10
Member
kc10

Thoughts on Marsters? Can he get back to form and can he score well against the Roosters in 16? Or will Euan outscore him against Melbourne?

I don’t mind Tevaga as a back up to Cook either, just depends on his mins for the rest of the season.

5 trades were supposed to make things easier!