Buy, Sell, Hold – R14

The bad news is that Round 13 happened. The good news is that it has passed, and now there’s a slate of guns whose prices have dropped and we’ll never need to talk about Round 13 again.

Even with a number of possible keepers seeing their price drop this week, there’s also a number who may be even better value next week. Most notable is Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who has a break even of 137 and could be close to $500k by Round 16. Do you take a risk and wait a week or eat the $50k now and hope he hits triple figures against the Titans? Due to other issues I’ll be waiting and death riding him the whole game, meaning he’ll probably crack 200 by the 60th minute.

Ryan Matterson is the other to keep an eye on, or “one to watch” as some mildly popular podcast host may say. But his possible participation in Origin 3 makes him a wait until Round 16. If he wasn’t lurking around the Blues team I’d get him in ASAP. Likewise, Shaun Johnson is worth waiting on, as we need one or two games out of him to drag that price down as his 5 moves out of his rolling average.

Best Call – Buy Kotoni Staggs. Despite some naysayers writing articles for this very site, Staggs finally found some much needed attacking stats and now a 40 average will see him move over $330k by the time you need to sell him in Round 17. Still a very good buy this week.

Worst Call – BUY Matt Moylan. Wasn’t even the third best five eighth option to trade in who plays Round 16. Anthony Milford, Connor Watson and Corey Norman all put in great performances while Moylan barely managed 20 in a team that dominated the hapless Eels. Guess who I traded in?

Buy

Sio Siua Taukeiaho ($509,300 2RF|FRF – 62 last round, Average: 62.8, Break even 44)

Ignoring the 14 he scored against Brisbane due to injury, TKO is averaging 67.7 for the season, with around 50 points in pure base stats. That would rank him fifth among 2RF eligible players (ahead of Jake Trbojevic) and fourth among FRF eligible players. He should also be kicking goals for the Roosters in Round 16 as well when Latrell Mitchell is on Origin duty. At just over $500k that’s a steal.

Cameron Smith ($590,900 HOK – 81, AVG: 66.9, BE 60)

Ah, the pitfalls of waiting for a players break even to drop before trading them in. Is the $16k you saved waiting a week worth missing out on him scoring 81 last round? Depends who you would have played him over, but given the scores it would most likely be a no.

Looking forward, Smith has finally dropped back below $600k and is excellent value this week if you’re looking at locking in your second hooker. Cameron McInnes remains the only other option as a point of difference play, at just 7% ownership compared to Smith at 31%. If you’ve been holding someone like Reed Mahoney, then this is the week to pull the trigger.

Ken Maumalo ($492,100 CTW – 74, AVG: 59.1, BE 71)

Maumalo is quietly having an incredible Supercoach season. By average he’s ranked eighth amongst all CTW eligible players, only slightly behind Esan Marsters. If you look at players solely available as CTW (removing those with 2RF dual status), he’s only behind David Nofoaluma (just two games played) and Brian To’o (only four games) for pure base stats average at 33.0 per game. You’re getting a high base stat winger who plays Round 16 for under $500k and could easily be your fourth or fifth CTW for the run home.

His three round average of 46.3 is pretty ordinary but that is due to a 28 scored against Brisbane in Round 11. However, his five round average is much better at 63.2 and he only has two scores below 66 in his last six games, which were the only games during that run when he didn’t score a try. At just 5% ownership he’s a definite POD who will help you out for the last bye round. Oh and he’s playing the Titans this week, who’ve given up the second most PPM to CTW over the past five rounds.

Suliasi Vunivalu ($331,200 CTW – 64, AVG: 46.0, BE 8)

At the other end of the spectrum from Maumalo is Vunivalu. You’re not getting base stats here, where Vunivalu’s 21.6 per game rank him 91st among CTW eligible players for base stats. You’re buying him for his ability to go large, as he did with three tries against the Raiders in Round 2 on route to 101 points.

The reason he’s closer to $300k right now is that the tries have dried up. Prior to last round he had just one try since that Round 2 outburst, and now has just five in total. Coincidentally, he had just five tries last year by Round 14 as well. After that he scored eight tries in eight games, for an average of 53.2. Not keeper status but that average would price him back over $400k.
Yes, it’s another risky Storm player (hey Nelson Asofa-Solomona would have had a 50+ score if he didn’t get held up late in the game…), but if he manages to get across the line it could pay off with just 4% ownership. For the same price you could also look at Euan Aitken (just 2% ownership) but the job security is a concern there.

John Bateman ($553,400 CTW|2RF – 81, AVG: 70.6, BE 34)

Could be a buy every week for the rest of the season. As cheap as he will be for the rest of the season. Just do it.

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Sell

Aiden Tolman ($526,600 FRF – 42, AVG: 60.2, BE 83)

Turns out it should have been “Sell all your Bulldogs last week”. He’s only relevant when he’s playing 60+ minutes a game and he hasn’t done that in a few rounds. Coincidentally his scores haven’t been north of 60 either, with an equal season low 42 against the Dragons.

Clint Gutherson ($393,300 CTW|FLB – 0, AVG: 56.9, BE 76)

There’s two schools of thought with Gutherson. His upcoming BE’s are high but not that bad (76 this week, then projected 96 before stabilising in the low 60s), and if you think he’s a keeper then his price doesn’t matter and you hold him for the rest of the season. He’ll make a great fourth or fifth CTW to play depending on matchups and the dual position gives you flexibility if for some reason you’re not running two of Tedesco, RTS and Turbo.

The contrary school of thought is that whilst he’s already lost $200k from his peak price (again, guess when I traded him in), has possibly another $100k to lose and he won’t play Round 16. His form has slipped and the Eels are a complete rabble. You can trade him out this week to someone like Staggs, pocket some cash and pick him up again in Round 17 at a discount if you think he can regain his form.

David Klemmer ($546,000 2RF|FRF – 0, AVG: 65.2, BE 89)

Klemmer had been one of the surprises of the seasons after moving to Newcastle. After never averaging more than 57.5ppg he had upped his output this year to over 65. Unfortunately, a fractured wrist has put him out of action for a month and would be a straight swap to TKO or Bateman this week.

Mawene Hiroti ($208,400 CTW – 8, AVG: 31.5, BE 35)

He’s not a priority sell given how little he has increased in price and the likelihood of a Souths player getting injured, but there’s no reason to hang on if you can afford a jump to someone like Staggs or want take a risk on someone like Aitken.

Dale Copley ($516,400 CTW – 19, AVG: 50.9, BE 105)

If you were one of the lucky ones who snagged him before the Round 12 bye, you’ve done exceptionally well as Copley has peaked in price.

Hold

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ($446,000 CTW|FLB – 40, AVG: 58.4, BE 52)

After a strong start to the season, CNK has levelled off with a three round average of 47.0 and has dropped about $100k from his peak price. Even with that decline his overall average still sits within the top 10 among all CTW players, and he’s still 14th in total base point average per game for CTW. He’s only one game removed from his highest base game of the year as well – 45 against the Bulldogs in Round 12.

The real drop in his scoring is from his evasion stats (offloads, tackle busts and line breaks). This year he’s had five games of 20 or more points from evasion stats, however his last four games have accounted for just 28 total points from evasion stats, capped by a 0 against the Tigers. If these stats come back he’s a keeper, but another week or two without them would see him as a likely sell for Round 16.

Dylan Walker ($351,500 CTW|5/8 – 21, AVG: 46.0, BE 51)

The Manly centre didn’t have a fantastic game on the weekend, but with a 51 BE he’s doesn’t need to do too much more to make a bit more cash before you can move him on for the next bye round.

Thomas Dearden ($221,000 HFB – 0, AVG: 28.8, BE 29)

Unlike Hiroti, there’s no simple sideways trades or downgrades you can make for Dearden. Best to hang on to him until the super trade round or even Round 16 when a nuff half might appear, or someone like Shaun Johnson has bottomed out in price.

Maika Sivo ($513,100 CTW – 66, AVG: 58.7, BE 57)

Has scored a try in each of his last seven games, including a double against the Dragons. During that time, he has only one score lower than 56 and three above 80. Those are virtually keeper numbers for a CTW on most teams, let alone one putting in disgraceful performances like the Eels. Worth holding at least until Round 16.

Blayke Brailey ($212,900 HOK – 0, AVG: 22.7, BE 35)

The younger Brailey finally gets a starting spot and you might be able to squeeze one decent price rise out of him. Older brother Jayden is likely to be back in a week, so unless you’re upgrading to Smith or McInnes then he’s a hold.

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TugSpeedman
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Gun
TugSpeedman

Loving the sneaky Maumalo POD.

Awesome write up Carlos.

stormers
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Keeper
stormers

First it was Nelson now Vuni who’s next? chambers? stop it!

Damien Cooked
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Damien Cooked

Trading Dylan Walker me thinks

The 20 in his rolling average will be there until 16 so going to be hard to make money

Cardy
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Cardy

Great Work Carlos

UnluggyUce
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Borderline keeper
UnluggyUce

Billy Walters should be a nuff half that plays 16

central coast crab
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central coast crab

I hope so

Serc
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Keeper

Thanks for the quality writeup Carlos, I had a bunch of thought bubbles and soft plans for this (and coming weeks) that I hadn’t properly figured out yet…but reading this helped put together a number of pieces in the puzzle!

I too am going to hold Tolman for one more week, as CHN is going to lose more if he actually ends up starting the game, and plays the Rhyse Martin junk minutes on the edge role (along with perhaps Martin himself – what a joke the Dogs are at the moment!)

old m8
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old m8

Not hearing much about Sean O’Sullivan? Looms as a swap for Dearden and for anyone foolish enough to gamble on Elgey or similar for 12 (defs not me…) a downgrade.