Magic Round was a huge success for not only the NRL, but also for the NRLSCTalk website, as none of our contributors ended up in hospital or the back of a paddy wagon. Although that may have been a better option for JT than having to sit through another dreary Cowboys defeat.
It wasn’t a successful weekend for some NRL coaches who are managing to only outsmart themselves with late changes and moving players out of position for no discernible reason. You can’t claim it’s a defensive issue when Rhyse Martin missed seven tackles in his last two games and Josh Jackson missed seven in one game against the Knights.
Best Call – SELL Michael Morgan. Just useless as a Supercoach option.
Worst Call – BUY Rhyse Martin. I hate Dean Pay.
Even worse call – BUY Manese Fainu – I hate Des Hasler.
Significantly worse call – BENCHING Reed Mahoney and playing Clint Gutherson at dummy half. I hate Brad Arthur.
Jason Taumalolo ($602,300 2RF – 72 last round, AVG: 68.8, Break even 55)
Taumalolo hasn’t quite dropped below $600k as hoped but he’s still very cheap considering his output and availability for Round 12. His two games back from a knee injury have produced scores of 85 and 72, and the Cowboys have the worst of their schedule behind them. Upcoming games include Parramatta (home), Canberra (away), Gold Coast (away), Manly (home and Wests (home).
Of course, they’re still the Cowboys and sit only above the Titans, Panthers and Bulldogs in points for this season. But that’s what makes Taumalolo so appealing. Even in a dreadful Cowboys side he’s still pumping out huge scores and playing decent minutes (58 and 63). You don’t want to be the one coach without him if has another 100+ game as he did on the first bye weekend in 2018.
Tom Dearden ($168,100 HFB – 39, AVG: 36.0, BE -13)
The new Broncos half has played his second game and looks to be ripe for a downgrade this week, much to the joy of Chanel Harris-Tavita owners. His scores haven’t been overly impressive, failing to top 40 in either appearance. However, his base stats are good for a half, as his 27.0 per game would place him 7th among all eligible HFB players. That’s double the likes of an Ashley Taylor, Sam Williams or Kane Elgey. Not elite company, but you’re getting him at base price and unlikely to start him.
The other advantage of grabbing Dearden is that he should provide another number for Round 16, when he would be about $300k if he continues with his current average. Looking at the top trades this round, it looks like everyone is funding Taumalolo with a trade down to Dearden from CHT. Even if he’s not a fantastic cash cow, giving you the ability to bring in Taumalolo before the bye is worth it.
Ryan Papenhuyzen ($258,900 FLB – 119, AVG: 38.0, BE -79)
This isn’t chasing last week’s points, there’s serious short term cash here to be made with Papenhuyzen if the stars align. You’re committing to an extra trade before Round 12 by bringing him in because there’s an almost zero chance he either holds his value or his place by Round 16 when the Storm play the next bye weekend. He may not even hold his spot until next week, with Jahrome Hughes not having enough time to pass the NRL’s concussion protocol.
What makes Papenhuyzen such a great money grab? Under a probably worst case scenario starting at fullback for Melbourne over the next two weeks of 30 points a game, he’d improve in price by $120k and a 25 average would see him increase by $110k. 60 and 30 would see him increase by $160k. Even a score of 50 this weekend and 10 off the bench in Round 11 would result in a price rise of $130k. You’re probably starting to see why there’s money to be made even if his position isn’t guaranteed.
If you missed out on Maika Sivo or Rueben Garrick (or sold them early) and need to generate some quick cash before Round 12 this is great opportunity. If you’ve been burning through trades, then it’s probably one to miss since a trade is probably valued at around $100k
The Storm play the Tigers this week, who are 3rd in PPM conceded to fullbacks over the last five rounds which is a little concerning. They are 12th in conceding points to CTW though. Thankfully the game is on Thursday night this week meaning you get to see what sort of shenanigans are going on with line-ups before locking in any trades, something that should be at the front of everyone’s mind after last weekend.
Anthony Milford ($467,100 5/8 – 97, AVG: 51.2, BE 21)
One for the Head to head who don’t have to concern themselves with trivialities like bye planning. Milford has returned to form with a three round average of 73.0 after bottoming out at $383k, and is only owned by 3.4% of coaches. That’s less than 5,000 teams. You’re not getting him that cheap this week but he’s likely to have break evens in around 20 for the next two rounds if he hits his projected scores.
You might say that playing the Roosters could be an issue this week, but the last two 5/8s who faced them put up decent scores – Ryan Matterson (77) and Jack Wighton (89). The Broncos draw after the Roosters is pretty tasty as well, facing New Zealand, Gold Coast, Parramatta and Newcastle in their next four.
Michael Morgan ($422,600 5/8|HFB – 29, AVG: 50.1, BE 94)
I hope no one took JT’s advice about Morgan on the podcast last week.
Angus Crichton ($537,800 2RF – 41, AVG: 53.8, BE 97)
Echoing Wenin’s Welders Dog Unpopular Supercoach Opinion from last week, it’s becoming obvious that Crichton just isn’t relevant this season, or at least on his current form. He’s already dropped $109k so far, and will most likely plummet under $500k in the next few weeks. His base stats are very ordinary, ranked 29th for pure base stats and 24th in total base stats (base plus tackle busts and offloads) among 2RF eligible players. That’s just behind Lachlan Burr and Kurt Capewell in both cases if you’re looking for a point of reference.
Crichton will most likely play Origin, meaning he will miss two games over the bye period. This is the week to sell him to someone like Taumalolo or another forward who will provide bye cover.
Jack Bird ($448,100 CTW|5/8 – 43, AVG: 53.8, BE 64)
An obvious sell due to suffering an ACL injury, but it’s worth noting just how well he was going in 2019. He sat just outside the top 10 for base stats and total base stats and would have been top 5 if you removed the 2RF eligible players. For someone who started the season at $320k, he was a very pleasant surprise.
Chanel Harris-Tavita ($328,700 HFB – 0, AVG: 55.0, BE 31)
This is the week to move CHT out for Dearden, allowing you to pocket about $160k in cash. The other option if you have the duals is to could even swing trade to Papenhuyzen via a dual position player like Kalyn Ponga or Michael Morgan.
Lachlan Burr ($464,800 2RF – 32, AVG: 54.6, BE 79)
If you didn’t move Burr on last week, this is the week to do so as he will continue leaking cash over the next month. Being able to trade up to Taumalolo for $140k is a steal, which could easily be funded by the above CHT to Dearden trade.
Andrew Fifita ($577,900 FRF – 19, AVG: 63.3, BE 140)
With that monster BE and leaving the game early with a hamstring complaint, I can see the rationale behind selling. However, he has been named to play this week and the last time Fifita had an injury scare, he came back and scored 106 the week later. If he keeps his current season average, including last week’s 19, then he’ll only lose about $80k in total. Is that really worth two trades, since you’ll want to bring him back in at some point?
Rhyse Martin ($561,800 2RF – 0, AVG: 63.7, BE 52)
Did I mention how much I hate Dean Pay? Martin currently holds the #14 jersey for the Bulldogs this weekend, which could see his scores in the 30s if his Round 6 performance was any indication. If that was an aberration and he stays at a 0.8 or 0.9 PPM he’ll score around 50 and should keep his value over $500k and hopefully start Round 12. Then you can trade him and all your other Bulldogs out because Dean Pay can’t be trusted, he’s worse than the last coach who ruined Supercoaches lives with ridiculous late changes, Anthony Griffin. By the way, I might have neglected to mention I hate Dean Pay.
Jayden Okunbor ($376,200 CTW|2RF – 25, AVG: 52.6, BE 63)
One of the few Supercoach relevant Bulldogs who haven’t been affected by Dean Pay, who could be a sell for head to head players but those gunning for overall should hold until Round 13 as he will cover the first bye weekend. He was dreadful on the weekend, but he only has two scores from eight games below 45 points. His break evens for the next two weeks are in the low 60s and is unlikely to drop significant amounts of cash unless he posts consecutive scores in the 20s.
Bronson Xerri ($315,200 CTW – 39, AVG: 43.2, BE 49)
His price increases have slowed, but that 49 BE is achievable with a try and a score in the mid-40s would see his BE drop the late 20s next week. Keep in mind that Garrick scored his hundred the week his BE peaked at 36, and Sivo’s run of big scores came when his BE peaked at 52. It only takes one big game to get that price increasing again. Xerri does face Manly this weekend who concede the lowest PPM to CTW in the NRL, so if you do hold him then he might be best left out of your 17.
Maika Sivo ($554,000 CTW – 37, AVG: 58.3, BE 66)
Somehow managed 37 despite a wretched Eels performance and a trip to the sin bin. As he’s missing this week through suspension, his price won’t change and should be held unless you’re a H2H player. He will probably lose a bit of cash before Round 12, but should still be around $500k post Round 12. Even a string of 20s would still have him at about $450k, which is still a tidy profit after he covers the first bye weekend.