Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 20
Origin has now come and gone and, after this week, we should be back to some semblance of normality. It remains to be seen just who backs up from last night’s encounter – with the likes of David Fifita battling through injury and Clint Gutherson a gruelling 3 minute stint. It’s a week where you might be short of numbers given the Rabbitohs, Raiders and Dragons are cooling off, so it may be a choice of whether you really need to burn a trade for the sake of a number or you can hold off until the waters get a little clearer. If they were guaranteed to play normal minutes, the Twin Titans of Fifita and Tino are must-haves, but this may not be the week given breakevens and potential restings (mid game or otherwise, though the tweet below is helpful from big Stilesy).
Either way, there are plenty of options coming back in from the Origin arena and putting their hand up for your run home sides. Giddyup!
BUY
Harry Grant - $643.9k – HOK – BE 95
It’s been a rough season for hookers with Origin and injuries meaning the gap between the best and the rest is as low as it’s ever been. Grant still fills that ‘best’ spot, the only one close to nudging 70PPG (next best is JMK back on 65 who can’t get onto the park). With the rep season now past and the Storm to play every game from here on in, it’s worth pulling the trigger on Grant here to firm your hooking stocks up. Grant didn’t get a rest after Origin last year and with the Storm battling it out for Top 4, it’d be unlikely they give him one here, but you never know so make sure you’ve got adequate backup.
Tyrone Munro - $200.8k – CTW – BE -80
Many are going Blake Wilson but surely the better downgrade option is Munro (unless you’re desperate for numbers this week). Bottom dollar, playing in an attacking side and likelier that he gets punted from the side at some stage and becomes a proper nuff. Next week will be his 3rd game so either here or then.
Cameron Munster - $654.9k – 5/8 – BE 59
Munster’s NRL formline reads pretty grimly in his last 4 games (starting all the way back in R12!). 35, 42 and 37, but the 124 he got against the Sharks is what you’re bringing him in for here. Like Grant, got through the Origin arena unscathed and the Storm can now focus on the run home. His draw is quite soft with games against the Roosters, Knights, Dragons and Titans so expect a few other 100+ point efforts. Owned by 33% of the top 1% of players at the moment. You normally expect higher for a player of his calibre but this should be a springboard to higher numbers.
Jeremiah Nanai - $614.5k – 2RF – BE 16
Nanai has been red hot since making his return from suspension and has an 82 (Storm), 84 (Souths) and 106 (Wests 74’ers) in that time. Without Heilum Luki, he’s playing a big share of minutes and looks to have his attacking swagger back. At just 5% ownership he’ll be a dangerous POD in the run home should he and the Cowboys manage to keep up their attacking blitz. What makes it a bit tougher is that their opponents also start to get a little more difficult, but he’s played just as well in the Origin arena at high stakes so you’d back him in.
Ezra Mam - $462.8k – 5/8 – BE 51
A little from left field but Mam at a decent price ($130k less than his starting value) and games against the Dogs (daytime in Belmore), Souths (Sunny Coast stadium ‘away’ from home), Roosters (Gabba) then the Cowboys (daytime in Townsville) should be a good chance for Mam to pile some points on. He goes above 50 points in half his games and has a top score of 82, but he’s a healthy matchup-dependent trick card you can keep up your sleeve to save some money if you can’t afford a genuine gun at this stage.
HOLD
Damien Cook – $628.6k – HOK – BE 110
Cook has a big breakeven and misses out this week but if you’ve got him, you might as well hold. Grant’s the buy at the top but Cook is just as good a hold given depth issues at hooker this year. Side note: that image above was from 2018. Must have been a good week for Captaining Cook. Haven't been too many of those in the last few years to be fair.
Payne Haas - $694.8k – FRF – BE 89
If you’ve held him through last week, you might as well keep him for his return from injury next week (fingers crossed). Trades are tight and Haas is a guy you would have had in your run home side if he didn’t miss these last couple, so you might as well keep him around if you’ve waited this long and have other moves you can make.
Cody Walker - $730.1k – 5/8 – BE 130
Walker has around 2,300 tradeouts so far which seems too high given he just killed it in Origin and will have the weekend off to refresh himself before launching into it from next week. Ignore the breakeven since you’re holding him to the end anyway, and if you need a number for this round that desperately, find it somewhere else.
SELL
Jacob Preston - $550.3k – 2RF – BE 84
Preston has quietened down in the last few weeks after initially looking like he could be a handy number to have for the run into the (SuperCoach) finals. Unfortunate timing but it means you can capitalise on his decent pricetag now given his upcoming games against Brisbane and Penrith. Thanks for your service, but it’s either nuff or gun time.
Jahream Bula - $547.2k – FLB – BE 128
Same as Preston, I’m guilty of holding on a little too long in the hope they could repeat their early season form. Probably due to me burning too many trades, but I digress. Bula is in freefall now having lost $160k in value in just three weeks with a top score of just 43. You can do plenty with his spot, whether it’s flipping the likes of Ponga down to his spot and getting one of those other 5/8s, moving a Garrick/CNK down there or even somehow finding the money to turn him into the soon-to-be million-dollar-man Scotty Drinkwater.
Jeremy Marshall-King - $599.7k – HOK – BE 112
I’ll put my hand up for this one (because JMK probably can’t) – I traded JMK in for a great score of 89 before he went on to miss a stack of game time through injury and then didn’t even play him in R18 when he scored a try. Just a messy trade all up. With his future this season looking very uncertain, it’s best to avoid the will he / won’t he play saga and trade him up now to one of those Origin guys. Really unfortunate since he was absolutely killing it this year.
Valynce Te Whare - $400.2k – CTW – BE 18
Val Meninga delivered some nice scores and good gains in his time in your SuperCoach side this season but now’s probably the right time to make the move away. He’s back to the extended reserves, although every chance to make it back in the side given how cursed the Phins have been with injury, but is not likely to feature in your week-to-week side to close the year out.
Great read as always Justin with some very interesting suggestions.
Thanks mate 🙂
I owned mam for a lot of this year hoping for what you said but nuttin- He’s been close to a big score SO many times but his match ups don’t seem enticing for mine.
If i was going for a mam type i’d hit metcalfe for the warriors run home.