Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 18

All the byes are now over for the Sharks, Tigers and Titans so these guys should be definitely in the frame for your selections this round. The Reece Walsh news has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works for those (like me) who had bought into AJ Brimson last week, or were planning to here, and with a number of spots still up for grabs, maybe this is the week to hold firm on trades?

BUY

Valentine Holmes ($755.9k – CTW – BE 11)

Holmes and the Cowboys have had a monster few weeks coinciding with a return to form and confidence in the Origin arena. Once owned by 40% of the competition, that number now sits at 23% (also the same number for the top 5% and 1% of players). While he’ll miss next week through Origin, the Cowboys are still in must-win territory so you would expect him to back up in R20 given they play Manly in Sydney after a Sydney Origin. And further to that, he could eclipse his breakeven by a very significant amount coming up in a revenge game against the Tigers at home here. Next to Nicho, the second-best captaincy option of the round. A good sign for Holmes is that even when his side has been playing poorly this year, his scores have been great. Flip that team form around and he could be going massively to close your year out.   

Briton Nikora ($648.7k – 2RF – BE 87)

While owners may have been waiting patiently for Nikora to have a really big game lately (just one score of 75+ since R9), his consistency is right up there for players across the SuperCoach landscape and as mentioned above, will be in your starting side for the rest of the year. At a pretty decent price for someone who can string together multiple attacking stats a game, you would think he’s a great chance of being $750k soon if he gets going against the Dragons and Tigers in his next two matchups.

Jeremiah Nanai ($530.2k – 2RF – BE 11)

Nanai was a mile off the mark to start 2023 and it took a 4-week suspension to really kickstart his season. The last three matches he’s played (one in Origin, two in NRL) have featured multiple linebreaks, offloads, linebreak assists and a couple of tries. Vintage Nan. The confidence is back and the energy levels should be high despite the big minutes in the Origin arena given all that time in the suspension unit. He’s almost $130k off his starting price and looking like he could climb higher if the formline keeps up. A dangerous player to have against you in a H2H matchup and if you’ve got enough coverage for R19 already, he could be a big player this round at just 3% ownership.

Ronaldo Mulitalo ($617.7k – CTW – BE 73)

Like Nikora, Mulitalo has been ultra-consistent but yet to have a really massive score in the last couple of months. He gets a great chance with a few soft matchups looming. A genuine run-home CTW based on his high floor and the fact he’s in a very attacking team when they’re on.

Jack Horwath ($200.8k – CTW / 2RF – BE 20) / Myles Martin ($200.8k – 2RF / FRF – BE 20)

It’s nuff season at the moment – basement-priced players who won’t be picked at all and are preferably dual-positioned to allow easy flip ups and downs as required. These two are probably the best of the bunch so if you need a downgrade you don’t want to worry about ruining a VC loop down the track, here they are (NB: I hold no liability for AOB or Bellamy picking these guys for dead rubber games in Round 27 off the bench for 5 mins!)

Brendan Piakura ($289.1k – 2RF – BE-3)

Piakura got a starting game last round courtesy of the ongoing injury to Kurt Capewell (due back in R20) and gets another boost with Riki out potentially for the season. The fact he started last week even with Riki there is a good sign, although there could be a risk if they only see him as a left edge replacement for Capewell. Either way, he gets a start with a negative breakeven here. Just temper expectations given his PPM is pretty low in his limited NRL games so far.

HOLD

Reuben Garrick ($779.3k – CTW / FLB – BE 172)

Ignore the massive breakeven, Garrick is a genuine play in the run home now that he has been moved back to the more favourable fullback spot for the rest of the year. Despite a whalloping last week against the Storm in Melbourne, he still pulled a 62 out of the fire. Like Valentine Holmes, it’s always a good sign when your CTW scores well in a terribly beaten side. Looking long-term, finishing the year with games against the Bulldogs and Tigers could be 150+ point efforts given all three sides are likely to be playing for Mad Monday bragging rights.

John Bateman ($686.8k – 2RF – BE 104)

Not a popular sell at all but there has been talk thrown about that his move into the lock position will stifle his attack as he morphs into that ball-shovelling Jurbo/Murray mould. Regardless, he’s still playing big minutes and his tackle and hitup count is always going to ensure a good score – he just now needs a touch of luck to pull out the attacking stats that were starting to come his way on the edge after a slow-ish start. More than willing to give him another few weeks before the thought to move him on even crosses the mind.

Jahream Bula ($711.9k – FLB – BE 100)

If you held Bula through last round’s bye (and managed to avoid the Walsh carnage in the process), you’ve now got a healthy fullback who will play every game from here on in. Before his 43 against Melbourne (again – in a side very well beaten on a greasy Campbelltown pitch), he pushed out scores of 124, 111 and 95. The signs are there that this sort of effort isn’t just down to luck – he puts himself in the frame regularly with massive hitup counts and a huge fend for tackle bust and linebreak potential. Plenty of good matchups await in the stretch home.

Josh Schuster ($400.7k – 2RF – BE 68)

The most controversial call of the week but here’s the reasoning:

  • He’s a healthy body that should be in the starting side at either 5/8 (where he remains) or second row (where he will play next year).
  • He’s just signed a new deal to dissolve all the brief uncertainty surrounding the Luke Brooks saga last week which shows a level of maturity some NRL talking heads doubted he has
  • He has a score of 106 in the position this year.
  • A breakeven of 68 is not out of the realms of possibility, but won’t be devastating if he fails to deliver and drops in price again, giving you another look next week when the cloud or Origin uncertainty fades away.
  • And finally, he’s the #1 tradeout this round which almost guarantees he’ll put a big score on for those who hold.

SELL

Reece Walsh ($630.8k – FLB – BE 72)

Walsh will now play a maximum of 5 games for the rest of the season (out of a possible ten) which is just far too much to warrant holding him over the next crucial stretch of games. It’s unfortunate stuff for new owners, and there were plenty of them last week, but time to bite the bullet and tell him ‘C U Next Tyear’.

Sunia Turuva ($529.2k – CTW / FLB – BE 74)

Turuva has by no means been a disappointment this year, especially given before last week he had a 5RA of 65PPG (with a low score of 60 in that run), but being outside the likes of gluehands Tago and Peachey (especially the latter, who is thankfully out of the side now) is just costing him too much in potential attacking stats. The workrate is fantastic, but as we tend to see in this caper, the output can drop off in a rookie year, especially given he’s put in 15 games so far. This is a good time to take the jump to someone at the next tier as his price looks very handy at the moment.

Zac Hosking ($469.5k – 2RF – BE 48)

Hosking got a late callup to the side last week with Liam Martin failing to backup from Origin but is now back on the extended bench and is ready to make way for the top tier of talent. Given he is out of the side, the risk of a price drop (minimal as it would be anyway with a 48 breakeven) is gone, so there’s merit to just holding and waiting to see who pops out of the woodwork next round. An easy play also could be to nuff him now and bank the cash to splash out next week and beyond.

Justin

North Queenslander born and bred, Justin is also very much a Cowboys tragic. Rumours have it that his first born son will be named Thurston.

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zooperdooper32

Thanks justin but i don’t think val is dual position

zooperdooper32

Missed oppurtunity- C U NexT year

AJW

Gday there JT – just read the latest edition of your BSH (JT, the man taking the BS out of BSH – while others are adding in!!! That’s a compliment by the way! 🙂 ). Love your ultimate reasoning for holding The Shoe (“he’s the #1 tradeout this round which almost guarantees he’ll put a big score on for those who hold”) – ne’er a truer word was spoken young man! I also love the fact that I’ve had your boy Drinky now, since round 11, and he’s the reason that my season has not been a complete and utter… Read more »

Last edited 9 months ago by AJW
AJW

Btw, I’m deffo keeping Garrick, to see him carve up some Sunday roast chicken! 🙂

DCE2011

Thanks, JT. Your efforts and insights are appreciated.

The Duke

I have taken your advice, Bula stays.

Praxidike

Is EKatoa a hold with not being named this week and a bye next?

DNA

Probably depends on your trades, players available and if you can get to a keeper.

If you are covered ok saving the trade could be the best option. I don’t think he was ever going to be a final team player but he can be a useful number 5 for coverage and he should be back at some time. A great trade out if you have lots of trades left or a must have gun

Forgot I wasn’t in trade talk.

Last edited 9 months ago by DNA
DNA

Thanks – Good Stuff.