Buy, Sell, Hold – Round 12

With just one game left before the first bye week, a couple of injuries may force your hand with trades this week. There are a couple of sub-$300k cheapies attracting plenty of interest but depending on your position on the overall ladder and how many trades you’ve burned through, you may have to decide between banking points by trading in some guns (exactly what I’m doing) or banking on future value increases by bringing in these cheapies.

As a helpful reminder (thanks @antonio-bandarisis from Lakey’s team’s analysis comments section), this is what the bye weeks (rounds 13, 16 and 19) will look like for scoring in 2023:

In these rounds, you’ll score from your best 13 players only in any position, from your selected, on-field Starting 17. You’ll still need to ensure that your best available players are in your starting 17 line-up.
During these rounds, you’ll simply need to manage your team as you normally would – select, trade and set your best Starting 17 with as many ‘non-bye’ players as possible. Remember, it’s the Best 13 from your Starting 17, and does not include any remaining players on your bench as per any other week.
If you end up with less than 13 scoring players on your selected Starting 17, but you have unselected players your bench who actually play, the usual automatic emergency rule will apply (i.e. you’ll receive the score of your lowest-scoring player on your bench).

And for those who’ve asked – unfortunately we’ve been MIA from the podcasts the last couple of weeks with some work commitments (my flight was also sat on the Cairns Airport tarmac for 2 hours last night preventing me from getting home – as much as I love being in FNQ, I don’t really want to spend it there given alcohol supply isn’t allowed while on the ground…) but will be back from next week 🙂

Hudson Young – $638,000 – 2RF – BE 43

Young has been better than solid since R3 – dipping below 60 points just once in eight games (55). These scores are boosted by the more-than-occasional try, but Young’s career record (29 tries in 83 games) shows it’s not a surprise stat. Canberra’s form turnaround has been largely on the back of players like Young, and what he lacks in base stats compared to his 2RF counterparts, he more than makes up for in offloads and busts. Solid bye coverage and a dependable number for the next few months.

Billy Smith – $289,500 – CTW –  BE -62

He’s been a shining light in a very dull Roosters side over the last fortnight and with the Manu and Sam Walker injury news, should have a spot for at least a couple more rounds (although both Walker and Manu are due back in R14 at best so may only be one game until they provide somewhat of a headache). He’s definitely doing enough to make it his own longer-term. A massive cash grab if you need and in a small sample size, proving a handy play if you were desperate for CTWs. Beware the third week for a centre who’s killed it for a couple of games in a row, but it doesn’t really matter with that BE.

Joe Tapine – $619,400 – 2RF / FRF – BE 58

We’re all waiting for the explosive Tapine game of 2022 and it looks like it’s getting closer, with last week’s 70 from 51 minutes his best output of the year. The offload has slowly crept back more regularly which it needs to given his minutes don’t appear to be moving anywhere, with only one game above 56 minutes all year. Despite all the negativity, Tapine is still churning out very respectable scores and has a run featuring Manly, Souths (Origin-affected) and the Tigers in his next three games. Worth jumping on now but that price isn’t really going anywhere if you have other issues to solve.

Jeremy Marshall-King – $680,700 – HOK – BE 63

JMK has firmly placed himself at the top end of the hooking department so far this season. He’s the 2^nd highest averaging in the position and has been raining attacking stats. At just 5% owned he should be a huge target for those with the likes of Grant and Cook in the position who will miss time for Origin, as he plays 8 of the next 9 games and hasn’t looked like slowing down at all. He has had one ‘poor’ game this season where he scored 33 courtesy of a sinbin. Outside of that, he’s one of the most improved players in the competition and it’s translating into solid SuperCoach points.

Reuben Garrick – $576,100 – CTW/FLB – BE 5

Like last week, as good a time as any to jump on a fallen gun.

Josh Schuster – $271,200 – 5/8 / 2RF – BE 36

Schuster gets his first game in quite a while and at this point if you’ve held onto him, you might as well see if it’ll lead to anything. Has shed some weight in a bid to get fit so hopefully that’s a sign the attitude has taken a shift for the better. Let’s see what he can do.

Isaiya Katoa – $383,500 – HFB / 5/8 – BE 26

Katoa has been used as a stepping stone to the likes of Dylan Brown in the last few weeks but if you already have a couple of quality halves, now’s probably a good time to hang onto Katoa who will provide the same handy coverage that JMK will above. Looking like he’s building with confidence each week.

James Tedesco – $557,100 – FLB – BE 82

Those still playing the game and hanging onto Teddy will be frustrated but if there’s ever a time where Teddy is likely to go big, it’s this week. Coming up against a Dragons side who are in all sorts, having his NSW fullback spot challenged (to a degree) for the first time in years and playing for a side that would also not have been embarrassed like they have been for a long time. No Manu this week should also help force his hand to get involved. All the makings for a Teddy ton, which would be his first of the year.

Joseph Manu – $639,100 – CTW / 5/8 – BE 78

Manu’s injury isn’t as bad as first thought with the gun now likely to only miss one game (with next week’s bye), but carrying a leg injury in a poor team at such a high price isn’t usually a recipe for success in SuperCoach. If you’ve burned plenty of trades so far this season, he wouldn’t be a terrible hold, but for the cash and the important next two rounds, is one worth moving on from (at least temporarily). Does now have the flexibility of 5/8 if you need to shift him around as well.

Zac Hosking – $547,400 – 2RF – BE 74

Hosking’s HIA last week came at a very unfortunate time, with Scott Sorensen proceeding to score a ridiculous ton as the Panthers ran rampant over the Roosters rabble. Liam Martin came back last week and gets another go on the bench this week, and the shootout between Sorensen and Hosking to retain the starting spot once Martin is back to full health might have been won last week. Penrith only play the one bye week (16) so Origin duties for Martin aren’t likely to lead to much of a boost for Hosking anyway. All that said – he’s been a reasonable servant but the time looks just about up here.

Paul Alamoti – $355,400 – CTW – BE 19

Alamoti finally broke through last week as the Dogs put on a few points against the Warriors but despite a reasonable breakeven, now’s not the worst time to move on from him if you have to squeeze in Billy Smith.  I’d be keeping someone like Turuva (or even that f’n Will Warbrick) over him if you had to.

Jacob Preston – $563,900 – 2RF – BE 38

Preston’s now just had one score above 60 since Round 5 and has probably reached his peak, despite flashes of attacking brilliance throughout the year. The Dogs as a side aren’t providing a wealth of opportunities in the red zone but his solid base game has kept him afloat from a value perspective. The jump up from him to a more experienced SuperCoach forward with pedigree in the game (e.g. Young) is an easy one as a result. Misses both round 13 and round 17 coming up.